Tuesday, January 16, 2018

2018 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

The Oscar nominations are coming up on January 23rd! This means it is time for my final predictions in all categories. This year has a lot of factors that keep the race up in the air, particularly the #MeToo movement, lingering #OscarsSoWhite frustrations, a horror-comedy in the forefront of the Oscar race, as well as backlash to the perceived frontrunner in the major categories Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Nothing this year is set in stone, except for the fact that The Shape of Water is going to make a run at a record 15 nominations. Read up on the major categories, as well as my ARTISTIC AND TECHNICAL CATEGORIES PREDICTIONS, which also includes my predicted nominations count for each movie!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory – Adapted Screenplay is incredibly weak this year, but this is a beautiful script by a 3 time nominee who is probably making his last film. It is his time.
Image result for call me by your name
2. Mudbound – Dee Rees, Virgil Williams – The screenplay was actually quite rich, and if the movie gets rewarded somewhere, it will probably be in this category.
Image result for mudbound
3. Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin – The screenplay is vintage Sorkin. He has won once, but nominations are not always guaranteed. I put him third in case he gets another snub like he got for Steve Jobs.
Image result for molly's game
4. The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber – The movie has its moments, and this writing duo has had some gems, but they are always ignored. This seems like the time for their first nomination.
Image result for disaster artist
5. All the Money in the World – David Scarpa – The movie has won the publicity vote, which could carry with it a couple nominations that aren’t necessarily deserved. This is a stab in the dark, but I can see it happening.
Image result for all the money in the world
Others in contention
6. Wonder – Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne – The movie has had a nice box office, but this nomination would seem a little bizarre. Several people are predicting it, but my gut is that it gets the shaft.
7. The Beguiled – Sofia Coppola – The movie seems forgotten by most of the awards, but it was a Cannes darling, and Coppola is a past winner. This could surprise and pop in up a couple places.
8. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool – Matt Greenhalgh – The movie got a big time boost from the BAFTA nominations, but it will all depend on if any Americans actually saw it prior to voting.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig – If Gerwig is going to be rewarded, and I hope she is, it will be in this category.
Image result for lady bird movie
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh – It is probably the frontrunner on paper, but the backlash can take its toll. McDonagh will have to wait another year before his first win.
Image result for three billboards outside ebbing missouri
3. Get Out – Jordan Peele – Peele is a definite threat to take this award. It is the most creative and daring screenplay of the year. If he wins here, then it has a real shot at Best Picture, regardless if he gets a Director nom or not.
Image result for get out
4. The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor – Del Toro’s film will be nominated basically everywhere it is eligible. This is an easy prediction.
Image result for the shape of water
5. The Post – Liz Hannah, Josh Singer – This fifth spot is really interesting. I suspect that The Post will play well with Academy voters and will sneak in over much more accomplished films and screenwriters.
Image result for the post
Others in contention
6. The Big Sick – Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon – It would be sad if it gets snubbed, but it just seems like a foregone conclusion, especially after the Globes debacle.
7. I, Tonya – Steven Rogers – The WGA nomination was a boost, but the movie will be an acting contender at the Oscars only.
8. Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson – He is typically nominated every time in the writing categories, but the movie seems very understated. However, if he gets in, I will not be shocked at all. He was even nominated for Inherent Vice.
9. Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan – He is another consistent contender in these categories, but the movie lacks significant dialogue, which could play against its chances.
10. The Florida Project – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch – Sadly, the movie is not making as strong of a push at the awards circuits as it could have. If it shows up here, then we could be looking at a Best Picture nom as well.
11. Coco – Lee Unkrich, Jason Katz, Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina – Pixar is always in contention. Even though this is not being talked about by many, the acclaim is almost universal and can ride the Pixar wave all the way to the ceremony.


BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya She has the showiest role, not to mention mom role, in the category. The veteran actor gets her first overdue nom/win.
Image result for allison janney i tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird She is probably the more deserving contender, but she is less of a film actress than Janney. She is an easy nominee, but unfortunately she’ll probably come up just short.
Image result for laurie metcalf lady bird
3. Hong Chau – Downsizing She has all the right precursors, and while the movie is not well received at all, she gets in on her beautiful and heartfelt performance.
Image result for hong chau downsizing
4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound She also has a song in the running. If the Academy gets over their Netflix bias, then she should coast to a nomination here.
Image result for mary j blige mudbound
5. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick While she has been overlooked by some, the SAG nod secures her nomination.
Image result for holly hunter the big sick
Others in contention
6. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water Her part was so small that I feel like she gets left off, just barely. She doesn’t need a third nomination already.
7. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread The BAFTA nomination and supposedly still lingering snub for Another Year has her as a dark horse in the category.
8. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip If the Academy wants to throw in a wildcard, then this performance is it. They nominated a similar type role for Melissa McCarthy, and Haddish did win over the NYFCC in her memorable victory speech.
Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer


BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri He has taken the precursors thus far, and he has never been nominated before. He finally has his chance.
Image result for sam rockwell three billboards
2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project The veteran actor just unfortunately is stuck in a movie that is being largely forgotten otherwise. He is this year’s Sylvester Stallone in Creed.
Image result for willem dafoe florida project
3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water His performance is not flashy, but he has good lines and is quirky enough to get swept in with the love for the film.
Image result for richard jenkins shape of water
4. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World Plummer was put in an impossible situation and won everyone over. His efforts and goodwill get him the film’s lone nomination.
Image result for christopher plummer all the money in the world
5. Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name The SAG snub was discouraging, but in the end, I find it hard to think that he won’t be mentioned on nomination morning. He was every bit as good as Chalamet.
Image result for armie hammer call me by your name
Others in contention
6. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name He has one great speech, plus he has two other Best Picture contenders. He could get the John C. Reilly nomination if the Academy loves the movie more than SAG.
7. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The SAG nomination was a boost, but I think/hope that the voters will gravitate toward Rockwell before Harrelson.
8. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes He is a dark horse. The SAG and Globe nominations are key, but the movie is forgotten otherwise.
9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound He has been ignored unjustly throughout the process. If the Academy is ok with Netflix this year, then he could pop in out of nowhere.
Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water


BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The past winner will take home her second trophy for her furious performance in the Best Picture contender.
Image result for frances mcdormand three billboards
2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird Ronan is becoming a contender every year, and if there is an upset of McDormand, it will be from her. If she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.
Image result for saoirse ronan lady bird
3. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya She has a complete transformation in the film, which is always looked on fondly by voters. She’ll have to wait for a win, but her first nomination is guaranteed.
Image result for margot robbie i, tonya
4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water This is another easy nomination in the Best Picture contender. Her second nomination will be less of a surprise, and if she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.
Image result for sally hawkins shape of water
5. Meryl Streep – The Post There are other worthy performances, but predicting she will get snubbed hasn’t worked since 2004.
Image result for meryl streep the post
Others in contention
6. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game She is the true deserving winner, but I fear that the Academy will not love the movie as much as they should.
7. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul She has the important precursors, and she is Dame Judi Dench, but don’t even know a single person who saw or wanted to see this movie. It gets left off in every category.
8. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes It might be her best performance, but the movie does kinda suck, and it underperformed at the box office and in the precursors. And she just won, so a snub here is understandable.
Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman


BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour With the wins so far, unless he gets beat at SAG, he will finally pick up his first trophy for his transformation into Winston Churchill.
Image result for gary oldman darkest hour
2. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name He gave the best performance by anyone in 2017, but the Academy will see it as more of a breakout role than anything else. I have him winning next year in my 2019 PREDICTIONS.
Image result for timothee chalamet call me your name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread The nomination is looking more and more likely, and as more people see the film, perhaps they will send him a parting gift and record-tying 4th win.
Image result for daniel day lewis phantom thread
4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out He has hit every precursor; he is getting nominated. But there’s no chance he can win.
Image result for daniel kaluuya get out
5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. The movie has been forgotten and was sort of a flop. But there are probably still a lot of voters who feel bad for not giving him the win last year. He takes the fifth spot.
Image result for denzel washington roman j israel
Others in contention
6. James Franco – The Disaster Artist The sexual harassment allegations are looming, and despite how awesome he was and having won at the Globes and Critics Choice, I fear an unjust snub here.
7. Tom Hanks – The Post He hasn’t been nominated in forever. If he shows up here, then we have to look at The Post as a real BP contender.
Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Harry Dean Stanton - Lucky


BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water He has won the big ones so far, and his movie is looking at a record amount of nominations if things go right. It would be hard to deny him an award here.
Image result for guillermo del toro
2. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri His movie is in the driver’s seat, and it is his finest work yet. But he is up against a juggernaut.
Image result for martin mcdonagh
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird The DGA nomination secured this nomination. It would be so cool if she somehow wins the thing.
Image result for greta gerwig
4. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk Nolan finally has a movie that appeals to all voters, and the vast amount of technical nominations should be enough for him to get his first nom.
Image result for christopher nolan
5. Steven Spielberg – The Post He always defies the odds and gets nominated whether he deserves it or not. He has lost his touch…too bad the Academy can’t see that.
Image result for steven spielberg
Others in contention
6. Jordan Peele – Get Out Unfortunately, that leaves off Peele, which would likely be detrimental to the film’s Best Picture chances. I hope I’m wrong on this.
7. Dee Rees – Mudbound My preseason pick to win the category is looking less likely, but if the Academy can get over the streaming thing, then her searing drama could lift her to a nomination.
8. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name This would be the equivalent to Lenny Abrahamson in 2015 getting in, which no one is really expecting, but the Academy might really take to the film and carry him in with the love.
9. Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World How he handled the Kevin Spacey ordeal might be an overwhelming factor that could boost him into the conversation, much like it was at the Globes. It is hard to predict that, but I wouldn’t doubt it.


BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten (I predict 7 will get nominated)
1. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) – It is good enough, and no one dislikes it. In the current era and voting structure of the Academy, that is all that is required to win.
Image result for lady bird poster
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) – It has the backlash, which makes it just divisive enough to take away its award that it so richly deserves.
Image result for three billboards poster
3. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro) – It will be nominated everywhere, but that is not enough to take this award home. It is this year’s Benjamin Button.
Image result for shape of water poster
4. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) – The movie will be put on this list for its craftsmanship more than anything else, which will play well with the old Oscar voters.
Image result for dunkirk poster
5. Get Out (Jordan Peele) – Everything points to this movie being nominated, and because there really isn’t anyone who will have it lower than maybe 3 or 4 on their ballot, I would watch out for a shocker win here.
Image result for get out poster
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) – The movie is old fashioned and will be a hit with the older voters. Spielberg is always in contention, even for his garbage like Bridge of Spies and War Horse.
Image result for the post poster
7. Mudbound (Dee Rees) – Netflix finally gets its first nomination. The PGA snub was discouraging, but it overcomes it.
Image result for mudbound poster
8. The Big Sick (Michael Showalter) – I fear that the film will just not have enough 1st place votes to get in. Everyone likes it, but no one has it #1. The SAG ensemble nomination is interesting, however…
Image result for the big sick poster
9. The Florida Project (Sean Baker) – The movie has its fans, but A24 did not do a great campaign, and not enough voters saw it.
Image result for florida project poster
10. Call Me by Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) – It should be up there, but the subject matter and lack of real star power will bring it down a notch and leave it just on the outside.
Image result for call me by your name poster
Others in contention
11. I, Tonya (Craig Gillespie) – The film has been a hit, and the PGA nomination was a legitimate boost. It could surprise if there are 8 or 9 nominees.
12. Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin) – The PGA put it on their list, which was encouraging. It is a great film, but even I admit that a Best Picture nomination would be a little bizarre.
13. Wonder Woman (Patty Jenkins) – There seems to always be a blockbuster movie in the PGA lineup that has no chance (The Hangover, Bridesmaids, etc.), but this feels different. Keep an eye out here…


That’s all for the major categories! What are your predictions? Comment below! Also, check out my ARTS AND TECHS PREDICTIONS, which also features my predicted nominations count for each film mentioned!