Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2019

The Oscar nominations announcement was kinda fun and quirky with Oscar nominee Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross revealing them in some bright room in an undisclosed location, but there were a bunch of surprises. There were a lot of surprises, some interesting additions to the race that we hadn’t really considered before, and a few of the major categories that are completely unpredictable. See what I thought of each category and how my predictions held up (not so great).

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

Predicted: 8 for 8

Reactions: I suspected that 10 would get nominated this year, but we get 8 again. This is a really bad group of nominees overall, but there are some good films on there. Because there aren’t a lot of great movies represented, it is the most wide open Best Picture race in forever. You can make a compelling case for maybe 6 of these to actually win, which is fascinating. The coming month will bring a lot of campaigning and a couple more chances for the producers to give acceptance speeches, but I don’t think we will really have an idea until Oscar night. Even if some movie is sweeping the ceremony, that doesn’t necessarily matter anymore with movies taking home this category with just 1 or 2 additional wins. I have no idea how this shakes out.

Preliminary prediction: Green Book

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay – Vice

Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: This is ridiculous. I haven’t seen Cold War, but having multiple foreign film nominees in this category is unprecedented. McKay getting in is nauseating, especially snubbing Bradley Cooper, which just wreaks of Ben Affleck’s snub in 2012 for his Best Picture winner. They don’t like actors directing for whatever reason. I had Cooper and Peter Farrelly getting in over Pawlikowski and McKay. I’m not going to beat myself up over that one. That is seriously out of nowhere.

Preliminary prediction: Alfonso Cuaron

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale – Vice

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had John David Washington getting in over Willem Dafoe, just because no one has really seen that movie. It makes for an interesting race. Malek is the presumed frontrunner, but Bale is closing the gap. Now that Dafoe got the nomination, there could be an overdue card played if enough voters watch the movie in the next month.

Preliminary prediction: Rami Malek

BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Glenn Close – The Wife

Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Emily Blunt getting in with her doubled SAG nom over non-actor Yalitza Aparicio, but whatever. It feels like Glenn Close is going to get her long-deserved award, but Olivia Colman would be awesome and Lady Gaga gives the best performance of the group. She is winning in Original Song, though, so the voters will probably go another direction here.

Preliminary prediction: Glenn Close

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell - Vice

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Michael B. Jordan getting a surprise nomination over Sam Rockwell, whose nomination is an absolute joke. And that is coming from one of his biggest fans. Mahershala Ali hasn’t been beaten yet this season, but the overdue veteran card of Grant and Elliott can change that. It will need to be a strong push, especially since Green Book doesn’t have a lot of nominations overall or chances to win the categories that they did appear in.

Preliminary prediction: Mahershala Ali

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams – Vice

Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone – The Favourite

Marina de Tavira – Roma

Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Claire Foy getting in over the random Marina de Tavira. This just shows that the Academy did truly love everything about Roma and they really didn’t like First Man, which I don’t understand. Claire Foy’s performance was magnificent in that movie. This category comes down to the two girls in The Favourite going for a second win, and the great Regina King, who got a couple major snubs but has picked up the two televised awards to this point. Amy Adams…yet another loss, but her nomination total is now up to 6. She has to win one of these times. If Vice is in for a sweep, maybe this can be her time.

Preliminary prediction: Rachel Weisz

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I went with my heart and put Eighth Grade in there over First Reformed. I just realized that this is Paul Schrader’s first nomination…yeah no screenplay nomination for Raging Bull or Taxi Driver. And he gets it for this garbage? Ok… Well this category actually has decent competition. The real Best Picture contenders are in this category. In recent years, if the Oscar winner doesn’t have a lot of wins, it at least takes the screenplay award.

Preliminary prediction: Green Book

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Crazy Rich Asians in over Buster Scruggs. It’s almost like the Academy knew that they were going to break the Netflix bias this year, so they just went with it. A funny but lazy anthology movie gets a screenplay nomination over your Best Picture nominee Black Panther? Ok, they really do worship the Coen Brothers. BlacKkKlansman needs to win this to have a shot at Best Picture, however Barry Jenkins crafted something extraordinary in If Beale Street Could Talk, and he gets his second win in this category.

Preliminary prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cold War

The Favourite

Never Look Away

Roma

A Star Is Born

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk in over Never Look Away and A Star Is Born, both of which are head-scratchers. There are 3 foreign films here, and with the 2 foreign directing nominees, it is almost like the Academy is admitting that American filmmaking isn’t as prestigious or impressive as foreign film. I don’t know where to go here. Cuaron isn’t really a cinematographer, so that might cost him some votes. The Favourite should win, but Cold War has everything going its way.

Preliminary prediction: Cold War

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: Somehow I aced this? I would say that First Man has this in the bag, but they really snubbed it everywhere else.

Preliminary prediction: The Favourite

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Fantastic Beasts in over Buster Scruggs, as I’m sure a lot of people did. This always comes down to Sandy Powell period pieces. So Mary Poppins and The Favourite…

Preliminary prediction: The Favourite

BEST SOUND MIXING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I went with A Quiet Place instead of Roma, which was more wishful thinking than anything else. This is actually a sneaky interesting category. If Bohemian Rhapsody takes this, then look out for Best Picture. This is not a traditional group of nominees for this category.

Preliminary prediction: A Star Is Born

BEST FILM EDITING

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had Roma, First Man, and A Star Is Born in over The Favourite, Vice, and Green Book. Usually, that is until Birdman won in 2014, the Best Picture winner appears in this category. Roma is curiously absent from the list, which implies that the love for it isn’t universal. Also, this prevented Cuaron from getting 5 nominations, which would have been a record. Keep an eye on this category. Hopefully they save this one for later in the ceremony to not tip their hand.

Preliminary prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I went with the action movie Mission: Impossible – Fallout over Roma, which would have been the traditional choice. When a movie like Roma is showing up in a category that usually is reserved for action movies, you know it’s a real contender. It feels a bit like Slumdog Millionaire, which had similar pedigree going into the Oscars.

Preliminary prediction: First Man

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: So, Black Panther is one of the 8 best movies of the year, but it wasn’t one of the 10 best screenplays, it wasn’t one of the 5 best directed, and it’s a superhero movie, but it wasn’t one of the 5 best in visual effects. But it was that good? Sure, I’m convinced. I had that and Mary Poppins over Christopher Robin and Solo, both of which are ridiculous for getting in.

Preliminary prediction: Ready Player One

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

Vice

Predicted: 2 for 3

Reactions: I don’t know what Border is. I had Black Panther in that spot. This is already over.

Preliminary prediction: Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

“All the Stars” – Black Panther

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns

“I’ll Fight” - RBG

“Shallow” – A Star Is Born

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had the Dolly Parton song from Dumplin’ over Buster Scruggs, but I’m glad that I was wrong. That is an inspired choice, and if I had known that the Academy would actually consider the movie a movie, I would have predicted that. Lady Gaga has this one wrapped up, though.

Preliminary prediction: “Shallow”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: The best score in years got snubbed, which is of course First Man. It is not too abnormal for them to overlook the best scores, but when it was the frontrunner going in, it makes no sense to throw in Mary Poppins. I got the rest of the category right, and now I have no idea what wins, so I’ll go with Alexandre Desplat.

Preliminary prediction: Isle of Dogs

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: The favorite had been Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, but this category is always a little weird like that. The best docs are always ignored. I had that and Three Identical Strangers in over Hale County and Of Fathers and Sons. Now, we have a wide open race. I’ll go with my favorite for now.

Preliminary prediction: Minding the Gap

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Capernaum

Cold War

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I said that Shoplifters would get snubbed because they usually overlook the Cannes winners. I had Burning and The Guilty in over that and Capernaum. You would think that Roma has this, but when a movie is contending for Best Picture, it sometimes is given to something else. Cold War has the directing nomination. This is so weird. Those should almost have been eliminated like The Diving Bell and the Butterfly was, for example. That way we’re not left with Pan’s Labyrinth losing to The Lives of Others.

Preliminary prediction: Roma

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I took the obscure animation stab of Tito and the Birds to get in over Ralph. How much do they love Marvel? More than Pixar? More than Wes Anderson? I’m not completely convinced.

Preliminary prediction: Incredibles 2

Overall predictions: 78/106; 73.6% (77.57% in 2018)

Without the last 5 categories: 62/81; 76.5% (80.49% in 2018)

On the Big 8 categories: 35/43; 81.4% (77.77% in 2018)

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Sam Elliott

2. Paul Schrader

3. Adam Driver

4. Phil Lord and Chris Miller

5. Regina King

6. Nicole Holofcener

7. Olivia Colman

8. Rami Malek

9. Bing Liu

10. Peter Farrelly

10 WORST SNUBS

1. First Man for Best Original Score

2. Eighth Grade for Best Original Screenplay

3. Bradley Cooper for Best Director

4. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? for Best Documentary Feature

5. If Beale Street Could Talk for Best Picture and Best Director

6. Claire Foy for Best Supporting Actress

7. Ethan Hawke for Best Actor

8. A Quiet Place for Best Sound Mixing

9. Emily Blunt for Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress

10. The Rider in all categories

Stay tuned for our 11^th Annual Oscar Challenge!