2015 Oscar Predictions: September

There have been quite a few shifts in the Oscar race since my preview article back in early March. We are beginning to see which movies are the frontrunners, but if we have learned anything in the past decade or so, the frontrunners are almost never the ones that end up winning big on Oscar night. Here is a quick rundown of the changes in the past half year, followed by my extensive predictions leading up to the few months where the good movies are finally going to be released.

Release date casualties: Anita, Carol, Child 44, The End of the Tour, Hands of Stone, Jane Got a Gun, The Last 5 Years, Midnight Special, Serena, Untitled Cameron Crowe Project, A Walk in the Woods, While We’re Young

Release date additions: American Sniper, A Most Violent Year

New films on the radar: The Theory of Everything, Selma, Suite Francaise, Love Is Strange, Miss Julie, Effie Gray, Still Alice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Gone Girl – Gillian Flynn – As the year goes along, it appears clear that this is going to be the most talked about movie of 2014. Every time anything comes out about the film, it is news on IMDb. The trailers are getting better and better. It has the cast and the A-list director. The only thing against it for screenplay is that it is written by the author, which is not always warmly received by the Academy.

2. Unbroken – William Nicholson, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard LaGravenese – This movie has quietly sustained buzz throughout the year since its trailer debut during the Winter Olympics. The subject matter and amazing list of writers alone keep it in the running.

3. The Imitation Game – Graham Moore – I was never really sold on this earlier in the year, but it is getting great early reviews and it appears to be a writing showcase if there ever was one. It could be this year’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.

4. The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten – A movie with a hot young cast about a real life person like Stephen Hawking has got to have some juicy writing in it. Early word is terrific. Watch out for this one.

5. Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson – We still do not have a trailer (which I am almost happy about), but its source material is incredibly dark and weird, perfect for this category.

Others in contention

6. Trash – Richard Curtis – Underestimating a Stephen Daldry movie is never a good idea. Even though this sounds incredibly light and corny…well, so was Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

7. Kill the Messenger – Peter Landesman – These types of movies have been very popular in recent years. I wouldn’t doubt if this gets a really strong box office and jumps into the major awards, seemingly out of nowhere.

8. Rosewater – Jon Stewart – It had a strong trailer, but it is being overlooked and written off by many. I think this is going to blow everyone away.

9. American Sniper – Jason Dean Hall – Surprisingly, this movie was sped up and is set to be released in December. Its subject matter is intriguing, and it is directed by Clint Eastwood. I like this movie’s chances for the acting awards and screenplay. It could be a fairly controversial film a la Zero Dark Thirty.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Birdman – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo – The movie has been taking festivals by storm, and its subject matter totally suits the Original Screenplay winner profile. It is going to be so much darker and deeper than it sounds. I can’t wait to see it.

2. Foxcatcher - E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman – It appears that this is as good as its early trailer leak last year implied it could be. It is dominating the festivals, and it getting career-best marks for everyone involved. Can a movie this dark really take the major awards?

3. Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh – No real explanation needed here. It is Mike Leigh, so it will be nominated, even when it gets almost no love leading up to the announcement.

4. Boyhood – Richard Linklater – It is almost certainly going to be the best movie of the year, and it is groundbreaking and unforgettable. It has everything that the Academy could possibly ask for in a film. It could be the winner with a few precursor victories.

5. Whiplash – Damien Chazelle – The Sundance winner had an electric trailer, and as I expected, it appears to be this year’s Billy Elliot. The recent Sundance winners have underperformed at the Oscars, but this one appears to be the real deal…and it has a legitimate release date. One note: it is based on the director’s short film, but is listed as an original screenplay. Didn’t we go through this with District 9?

Others in contention

6. Interstellar – Christopher Nolan, Jonathon Nolan – Everyone seems to be in love with everything Nolan right now, and this movie has somehow remained somewhat quiet since its trailer was released. It is taking a different route than Inception, and I respect that. I hope it pays off.

7. Love & Mercy – Oren Moverman, Michael A. Lerner – I am not giving up on this movie just yet, even though we really do not know too much about it. Moverman is a talented writer, and the subject really fits with Academy standards.

8. The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness – Anderson movies are normally well in contention, and this one set a few limited release box office records. Will it be remembered come December?

9. A Most Violent Year – J.C. Chandor – His first two films shook up the awards, and this appears to be his first plot-driven movie. That could bode well for the guy who seemingly mastered all dialogue and zero dialogue.

10. Love Is Strange – Ira Sachs – This is the type of veteran-starring movie that really strikes a chord with the Academy. Reviews are decent, and Sachs has had a couple strong indie hits.

11. Fury – David Ayer – I am still not 100% sold on its trailers, but it is hard to get past the cast and subject. I hope for the best. Ayer is one talented filmmaker.

12. Selma – Paul Webb – Having a movie about MLK, LBJ, and George Wallace has got to put your movie in contention. It didn’t work for The Butler last year, but this one has a more promising pedigree.

13. 99 Homes - Ramin Bahrani, Amir Naderi, Bahareh Azimi – This is another one where we do not know too much about it just yet, but I am still keeping an eye on it. It has the potential to be a real sleeper hit.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Shohreh Aghdashloo – Rosewater – With basically all of my March contenders now seeming like foolish picks, one of the few films that we haven’t seen still has a strong potential contender. She is a past nominee and will undoubtedly have a dynamite part in Jon Stewart’s passion project.

2. Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods – She is said to have one of the most scene-stealing parts in the play, and we all know she can sing. Look for a second nomination for the budding star.

3. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood – She is quite understated throughout the movie, yet she leaves an emotional impact greater than any other character. It is a flawless performance, and if Boyhood is the contender that we all expect it is, then she needs to get swept in with it.

4. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice – She has the best supporting female role in the book, and there is always a newcomer in the mix. PTA supporting players are always getting nominated.

5. Julianne Moore – Maps to the Stars – She hasn’t been invited back since 2002, and playing this crazy part in a Cronenberg movie will show us a side of her we haven’t seen in a long time. I hope for the best with this one.

Others in contention

6. Vanessa Redgrave – Foxcatcher – It seems like she always has a hyped up role, but she ends up coming up short each and every year. Maybe the slam dunk hit by Bennett Miller will change that.

7. Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Kill the Messenger – She is ready for her first nomination, and while buzz on this film is quiet, all signs point to it being an actor showcase and box office semi-hit.

8. Krysten Ritter – Big Eyes – Tim Burton films are not always kind to his actors, but she has the opportunity to steal the movie with her free-spirit character opposite Amy Adams.

9. Laura Dern – Wild – She has a bunch of films this year, and this one seems like her most sure-fire shot at her first nom in 23 years. The buzz for the film is increasing daily.

10. Naomi Watts – Birdman – I am not sure which of the supporting ladies in the film have the best parts, but from the trailer, Watts looked like she has a lot to work with.

11. Viola Davis – Get on Up – The movie came and went early in the year. She will need a couple precursor mentions if she wants to regain her previously established frontrunner status.

12. Lesley Manville – Mr. Turner – She was left off for Another Year. Maybe this true story is her shot at redemption.

13. Rooney Mara – Trash – Each Daldry film has had at least one acting nomination. She probably stands the best chance in the mostly unproven cast.

14. Carmen Ejogo – Selma – She plays Coretta Scott King, which will likely either leave her stealing scenes or getting completely overshadowed by her husband character.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash – The trailer almost convinced me that he is a shoo-in nominee and potential winner. I always knew he could do something great in a drama.

2. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice – When I read the book, I thought “Bigfoot” is a perfect Josh Brolin role. Little did I know, he was already cast in that part.

3. Paul Giamatti – Love & Mercy – I am still convinced that if this movie is big enough, then Giamatti is a potential victor in this category.

4. Michael Shannon – 99 Homes – If the movie is going to work, then he is going to need to be a great villainous character. He should be able to kill it, but who knows how deep Bahrani’s film will really dig?

5. Neil Patrick Harris – Gone Girl – I have said that whoever the killer ends up being is getting nominated. Not being too familiar with the story, I am taking a shot on the TV star being that guy. Please, don’t spoil it for me or anyone else if you already know…

Others in contention

6. Robert Duvall – The Judge – The more I see from this movie, the more it is clear that it is going to make more money than it ought to and both actors are going to be well within contention.

7. Tim Roth – Selma – He plays George Wallace, which will be a great part for the past nominee. He deserves a second invite to the party.

8. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher – He is a great character actor and already had his Emmy hit movie The Normal Heart this year to remind us of that. This seems like a role that will make or break the movie.

9. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood – His part was the most important one in keeping the movie grounded and relatable. He deserves accolades for it. This should be his second career acting nom, but we will have to see how much the Academy loved the film.

10. Johnny Depp – Into the Woods – Playing “The Wolf” is going to be memorable, but can he stand out in that colorful and dynamic cast? Probably, but can he take it all the way to his first supporting nomination? Not sure…

11. Bob Odenkirk – Boulevard – This movie was already on my radar, but since Robin Williams’s death, it is even more so. Could this film be one last send-up to one of our finest actors? Odenkirk and the rest of the supporting cast will need to show up to make the movie something worth checking out. Dito Montiel can certainly direct great performances. Keep an eye on how this one develops.

12. Tom Wilkinson – Selma – He plays President Johnson in the film. I assume that MLK and LBJ will be separated in their acting categories, but it is difficult to decipher which way it will go. I’ll go with MLK being the focus of the story.

13. Edward Norton – Birdman – He looks great in the trailer, but I am getting used to our finest actor getting snubbed for every great performance he gives. Maybe the love affair Oscar has with Inarritu will change that.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice – The role sounds like something that suits arguably our best Oscarless actress, and the festivals have gone gaga over the performance. Is it finally her time?

2. Reese Witherspoon – Wild – She has what appears to be a one-woman-show type role, and she is directed by Jean-Marc Vallee, who just got two actors Oscars last year. Her nomination is pretty much a lock at this point.

3. Amy Adams – Big Eyes – The trailer looks terrific and seems like somewhat of an actor showcase, which is not what we have come accustomed to with Tim Burton. How many noms can she get in such a short amount of time without getting one win?

4. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods – Maybe she is lead, maybe she is supporting. We really do not know, but she is nominated lead almost exclusively now. She will get in either way.

5. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars – This would be quite a surprise, especially if she doesn’t show up on the precursors. She is the hottest thing out there right now, and the movie had the emotion, reviews, and box office to take her all the way to the ceremony.

Others in contention

6. Rosanumd Pike – Gone Girl – I do not know too much about the structure, but it is hard to believe that she is really a lead. That is where she is campaigned, though, which might be the thing that makes her just miss out on a first nom.

7. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything – She is one of the more underrated young actresses in the business, and she has a fantastic role in the movie about Stephen Hawking. If the movie is as beloved as it can be, then she might get swept in with the momentum.

8. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year / The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby – She has a couple great chances to get nominated. It really all depends on what kind of release the movies get. She should become an Oscar regular in the coming years.

9. Mia Wasikowska – Tracks – Depending on which movie is the bigger hit, she could steal Reese Witherspoon’s nomination with a similar type role.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Michael Keaton – Birdman – The trailers are getting better and better. It is the role of a lifetime, more or less about his lifetime. Will that much self-reflection hurt him or help him? It’s hard to tell, but for now, I have to think he is the frontrunner.

2. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher – The physical transformation and mental instability certainly put him right near the top, and he keeps garnering awards and high praise citations from critics and festival audiences. He is a lock for a nomination.

3. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything – Playing Stephen Hawking is a dream for a young actor like Redmayne. He has already gotten praise for My Week with Marilyn and Les Mis, so he is not a new face in this crowded, incredibly strong category.

4. David Oyelowo – Selma – You do not get too much more of potential Oscar nom than playing the booming personality of Martin Luther King Jr. He has only had a few legitimate roles in significant movies, but the pedigree of this movie and dynamics of his character should be enough to give him an excellent shot at a first nomination.

5. Miles Teller – Whiplash – How cool would it be if our two favorite indie actors turned budding superstars got their first noms in the same year?! Teller has the high-energy Sundance darling, and Woodley has the crowd-pleasing box office weepie. Both have a great chance to capture the younger audience vote of the members.

Others in contention

6. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice – This is my single most anticipated performance of 2014. I can see the movie being a bit too weird for the Academy, but that hasn’t stopped the acting noms from coming PTA’s way. He is right in the running, and maybe with an eventual trailer, he could climb right back to the top.

7. Brad Pitt – Fury – He is the biggest movie star in the world, arguably. His movie is one of the more uncertain cases of the year, but Ayer can direct actors and the trailers have been intriguing to say the least. He might get in by name alone, anyway.

8. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken – He is a talented young actor, and his movie is one of the ones to beat in the Best Picture race. If they really love the movie, then he could become a no-brainer.

9. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game – He has a huge fanbase, but he is battling with a few other major British performances. His movie might be much better than I am expecting, but for right now, I will be safe and predict him out.

10. Robert Downey Jr. – The Judge – His movie got mediocre marks from the TIFF, but the movie still looks like exactly the kind of performance that gets nominated despite all of that.

11. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh has not had a great track record with his male actors, especially Spall, but this seems like a pretty surefire Oscar contender.

12. Bill Murray – St. Vincent – He was one of the big gainers out of Toronto. The role sounds wonderfully strange and scene-stealing from the description. He needs his second nomination soon.

12. Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year – He was left off for Inside Llewyn Davis, unfortunately. He is going to be a star for a long time, and being directed by the great J.C. Chandor could do wonders for Isaac.

13. Ellar Coltrane – Boyhood – He goes through the most obvious transformation in movie history, and with each year that goes by, he grows more and more impressive and mysterious. It is a phenomenal performance, and if Boyhood is our eventual Oscar juggernaut, then he will be nominated.

14. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler – He needs his second nomination at some point, since he has been doing the best work of his career in recent years. It is difficult to see a movie called “Nightcrawler” getting an Oscar nomination, but the trailer and potential of his role seem undeniable.

15. Ben Affleck – Gone Girl – Has the Academy gotten over it yet? Can he get his first acting nomination? He had to have been close for Argo after his BAFTA nom. This seems like his best shot yet in a role that will push him further than any lead role he has ever had.

16. Gael Garcia Bernal – Rosewater – The buzz on the Jon Stewart drama has been quiet, but Gael Garcia Bernal is one of the best foreign actors in the world. His role appears to have a lot required of him, but he could underplay it like he has done in the past (The Motorcycle Diaries, for example).

17. Jeremy Renner – Kill the Messenger – He has a couple nominations to his name already, and this true story has good potential to be his third. The buzz has really died down recently, but once it gets released, I believe that we are all going to be taken by the film. It will mostly rely on Renner to make that happen.

18. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper – He had a pretty amazing physical transformation in Clint Eastwood’s true Navy SEAL action-drama, and you would be hard pressed to find a more likable and popular actor working today. He might be our next Tom Hanks and get nominated for every remotely serious role.

19. Philip Seymour Hoffman – A Most Wanted Man – Does the Academy want to throw PSH one more bone? God’s Pocket underperformed, and the Hunger Games movies aren’t going to have enough for him to really chew on. This is a brilliant and subtle performance and our last chance to recognize the best actor of this generation. I am rooting for him.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. David Fincher – Gone Girl – He has had three major Oscar hits in a row, and despite all the precursor wins for The Social Network, he was unable to take home the gold. Everyone in the industry loves him. He has an incredibly relevant and seemingly moody and dark thriller, which could be the next The Silence of the Lambs at the Oscars. I think he wins big, even if not at the other awards.

2. Richard Linklater – Boyhood – He had the most complex directing job in recent memory. Everything about the movie was flawlessly put together and beautifully realized. After two noms for screenwriting, it is time that he gets his directing recognition.

3. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher – He is simply incapable of making a bad movie. His film seems much more involved dramatically than his previous two Best Picture-nominated features, which will only heighten his chances at receiving a nom this time.

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman – Birdman is getting praise from everyone, and would be hard to see the architect of such a crazy and brilliant premise not getting the nod.

5. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything – He directed one of the most popular modern documentaries in Man on Wire, and his film about Stephen Hawking will certainly get the British vote, at least in part.

Others in contention

6. Stephen Daldry – Trash – We still know very little about the movie, but Daldry has gotten nominated for 3 of his 4 films. Good enough to keep him well within contention.

7. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken – We saw with Ben Affleck how hesitant the Academy is to anoint acting stars who direct (ones not named George Clooney, that is). Her direction in In the Land of Blood and Honey was terrific, so we know that this film will be handled with class and artistic beauty.

8. Ava DuVernay – Selma – If there is a newcomer, it will probably be her. Her film will likely be in the spotlight upon its US release.

9. David Ayer – Fury – The Brad Pitt-starring vehicle will likely be a box office smash and have some frantic direction. War films are always in contention in this category.

10. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar – Depending on the quality of the film, this might be Nolan’s best chance at a directing nomination yet, despite a space film taking home the award last year.

11. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game – If the British vote does not go to James Marsh, then it will go this way or the way of…

12. Mike Leigh – Mr. Turner – He has gotten a couple nominations in this category in the past. This is his most Oscary film since Vera Drake.

13. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash – The Sundance winners do not always have the release to get nominated in all categories, but I am trusting that this one will.

14. J.C. Chandor – A Most Violent Year – If there was ever a director who more showcased directing talent than one who made an exclusively talking movie (Margin Call) and then made one completely devoid of dialogue (All Is Lost) and had them both succeed with flying colors, then I would like to see it. If this movie has the quality of those two, and if the plot is as thick as it seems, then he should be nominated strictly on principle.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. Gone Girl (David Fincher) – This case reminds me a bit of 2006. There was the director whose film had never won Best Picture (Scorsese), and his film (The Departed) was another great one in the genre that he had seemingly mastered. There were a host of crowd-pleasers (Little Miss Sunshine, Dreamgirls) and deep Oscar films (Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima) that could have easily taken home the prize, but we all overlooked the totally solid and probably fantastic film from one of the greats that wound up taking home the gold at the last minute.

2. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie) – If the Academy can get past the name of the director, then this movie could easily go all the way. I am assuming that it is as great as it promises. It is difficult to predict any other way. The trailer was amazing.

3. Boyhood (Richard Linklater) – I would almost like this movie’s chances to win Best Picture if it had been released 30-40 years ago. Back then it was much easier to anoint movies of this length and scope. Hopefully the current members see the grace and magic that this movie truly is and recognize that.

4. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) – This movie, given the festival reviews and buzz, seems like a surefire nominee at this point. Hopefully the intrigue and mass showing of its trailer will get audiences on the bandwagon as well.

5. Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller) – It has been a long time coming for this film, and I had almost lost faith when its release was delayed until this year after the foreign trailer leaked last summer. It appears that it has weathered the storm and is ready to embark on an exciting awards season.

6. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh) – The British votes will likely be going this way, so the nomination seems pretty clear. It is this year’s The Queen, Philomena, Secrets & Lies, etc.

7. Trash (Stephen Daldry) – Stephen Daldry’s only miss in this category was his debut…which he got a Best Director nom for. I am not underestimating him. Even The Reader’s average reviews garnered a nod.

8. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) – The Sundance darling with a likely Supporting Actor winner and a rising star as the lead has an excellent chance to get recognized here. Let’s just hope the distribution is appropriate.

9. Selma (Ava DuVernay) – Here, we have another true story. It could end up being this year’s Frost/Nixon. It appears more complex than just simply another biopic.

10. Fury (David Ayer) – If there are ten, then the Brad Pitt-starring tanker film will get some love. The last time two war films were both nominated was in 1998, which is why I did not rank this higher. I am just more confident in the less conventional Unbroken to win over the voters.

Others in contention

11. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan) – The movie will make a bunch of money at the box office, and Nolan is a really popular director right now. If sci-fi really is back for good, then the movie should get in if it is not a dud.

12. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum) – I have never been as high on this movie’s potential as everyone else, but everything is pointing to it being truly great. We will have to see how American audiences respond.

13. Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh) – Mike Leigh films are always right in that 8-15 range for Best Picture. Could this be his second nomination in this category and his first in 18 years?

14. A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor) – I really want this to live up to the potential I put on it and up to the standards of Chandor’s first two films. Given everyone involved with the film, I don’t see how this can fail. How will the Academy take it, though? They have only been mildly impressed with Chandor’s work so far.

15. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall) – The musical looks like a beautiful holiday treat, but is it deep or serious enough to warrant this type of Oscar love? I am not sure, but since Marshall has directed a winner in the past (Chicago), I am not counting it out.

16. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson) – The movie is not going to be one that really dominates the Oscars or Golden Globes. It is likely much more of a critic darling, but sometimes those pass over to the Academy too. I hope this is one of them.

17. Love & Mercy (Bill Pohlad) – No other predictors even have this film as a contender, and yet I am sticking with it. I have nothing to really go on, other than a few glowing reviews, a killer cast, and one of my favorite writers. If this gets nominated the way I predicted it to back in March, then is that going to eclipse my predicting The Secret in Their Eyes taking down The White Ribbon for Best Foreign Film back in 2009? I think so…

That’s all I got! What do you think of 2014 so far? Your predictions? What are your most anticipated throughout the fall and winter months? Let me know below!

Week 4 College Football Recap: Rankings, Heisman, Playoff Projections

I typically like to do one of these every week, but due to a busy schedule, I was unavailable to do one the past couple weeks. I almost prefer to not update every week now. This way I can tear up what I had before and start over, rather than involuntarily going off my previous week’s rankings. I will publish as much as I can, however. Check out what this week’s action did for the landscape of this college football season below.

Top 25 Poll

Others receiving votes: Duke, Marshall, Ohio State, TCU, Washington

Dropped from the rankings: Pittsburgh (20), Ohio State (24)

25 (NR). Wisconsin (2-1) – Melvin Gordon: 250+ yards and 5 TDs on 13 carries…what a freak! He is the next Jamaal Charles. The team goes as he goes.

24 (25). East Carolina (3-1) – After a third straight victory over North Carolina and dropping 700+ yards and 70 points, we have potentially the scariest non-AQ team in the nation.

23 (NR). BYU (4-0) – It is difficult to really judge this team who dominates first halves and then falters in the second halves, but they are a potent offense and near unbeatable at home.

22 (18). Kansas State (2-1) – They did everything possible to lose to Auburn on Thursday night. They were the better team on that day, and maybe overall, but they need to shut the door. K-State is on the cusp of greatness far too often to never really get over the top.

21 (23). Oklahoma State (2-1) – IDLE.

20 (22). Arizona (4-0) – They were aided by a miracle 36 point 4^th quarter and hail mary to take down upset-minded and improved Cal. They are potentially the most explosive and prolific offense in the nation not called Baylor or Oregon.

19 (17). Stanford (2-1) – IDLE.

18 (16). USC (2-1) – IDLE.

17 (8). LSU (3-1) – They were physically dominated for about 55 minutes against Mississippi State before mounting a near comeback in the final moments. This team just isn’t as great defensively as they need to be to take that division.

16 (14). Mississippi (3-0) – IDLE.

15 (15). Arizona State (3-0) – IDLE.

14 (10). Georgia (2-1) – They may have dismantled a team in record fashion, but they get a net loss on the weekend when South Carolina struggled to beat the worst Power 5 team in the nation.

13 (19). Nebraska (4-0) – The offense is humming and the defense showed some attitude in the renewed rivalry game against Miami. The Big Ten’s chances might very well rest on the shoulders of Nebraska and Ameer Abdullah.

12 (7). Auburn (3-0) – They basically lost on the road, but they survive and advance, I guess. The conference games are what will define this team, just like last year after they nearly got beat by WSU and then nearly ran the table.

11 (13). Michigan State (3-1) – The Big Ten had a big weekend, and Michigan State is continuing to prove that they may be the best team in the conference. Losing in Eugene should not take them out of playoff contention.

10 (21). Mississippi State (4-0) – The Bulldogs finally get a big time win when it still matters! This team is always on the verge of competing, and after a huge road win in Death Valley, they are right in the thick of the race.

9 (9). UCLA (3-0) – IDLE.

8 (12). Penn State (4-0) – No one else really buys into this team as much as I do, but whenever I see them, I am fully impressed. Hackenberg could carry this team all the way to the B1G Title Game.

7 (11). Alabama (4-0) – The defense is not what we have come accustomed to, but Lane Kiffen has really ignited that offense. They could outscore almost the entire conference.

6 (5). Florida State (3-0) – The ‘Noles got extremely lucky to survive without Jameis Winston at home, but they did it in overtime. The defense is still really good, and the running game was able to show its power. They aren’t good enough to go unbeaten, though.

5 (6). Oklahoma (4-0) – Winning in Morgantown should not be underestimated. This team is as strong of a Sooner team as there has been since 2008.

4 (3). Baylor (3-0) – IDLE.

3 (2). Notre Dame (3-0) – IDLE.

2 (1). Oregon (4-0) – The offensive line was exposed in Pullman, one of the toughest places for teams to travel to. They will get it together and look back at this game as a learning experience.

1 (4). Texas A&M (4-0) – Kenny Hill has taken this team to places that Johnny Football never did. The offense simply cannot be stopped, it appears. I like them to take the SEC.

Top 5 Games for Next Weekend

5. Tennessee at Georgia (#14), 9:00AM ESPN – Tennessee is a decent team, despite what we saw from them against Oklahoma a couple weeks ago. Georgia can be beaten again if they bottle up Gurley. This could be start of a bit of a lull in the Bulldog schedule after a tough stretch to start. PREDICTION: Georgia 28-24

4. Florida State (#6) at NC State, 12:30PM ABC/ESPN2 – This may not seem like a great game, but the last time that the Seminoles traveled to Raleigh they were upended and received their only loss of the year. Can it happen again to a newly cocky and seemingly vulnerable team against a team that hasn’t lost yet? PREDICTION: Florida State 31-24

3. Stanford (#19) at Washington, 1:15PM – This will probably wind up on one of the Pac-12 Network channels. Every time these teams get together, something crazy happens. For the fans in the west, this has got to be one of the top games of the weekend. PREDICTION: Stanford 35-31

2. Arkansas vs Texas A&M (#1) (in Dallas), 12:30PM CBS – Arkansas has improved since their opening loss to Auburn, and they get the best team in the nation on a neutral field. This could be a trap game for the Aggies before they get into the meat of their conference schedule. PREDICTION: Texas A&M 48-38

1. UCLA (#9) at Arizona State (#15), THU 7:00PM FS1 – Arizona State is the most underappreciated team in the country, and UCLA still is the most talented. This is one of those weird Thursday night matchups where we get an amazing game that isn’t even on ESPN. Ridiculous. PREDICTION: Arizona State 24-23

Heisman Trophy Watch

5. Kenny Hill, QB, Texas A&M – I am beginning to think that anyone can put up numbers in that offense, but it has rarely looked as easy and exciting as it does with Hill calling the plays.

4. Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor – He might put up historic numbers this year, and if the team is able to run the table, then he might be an easy winner in the end.

3. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia – He barely played against Troy, but he still has a couple insane games to carry his candidacy to the top.

2. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska – He is the entire team, and he has had a few Heisman-type moments already. If the Huskers continue to win, then he needs to be invited.

1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon – He had a very methodical and productive game despite getting sacked 7 times at WSU. He will be the frontrunner until they lose.

College Football Playoff Projections

Chik-fil-A Peach Bowl: Arizona State over East Carolina

Cotton Bowl: Alabama over Nebraska

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma over BYU

Orange Bowl: Florida State over Michigan State

College Football Playoff Semifinal #1 (Rose Bowl): Baylor over Texas A&M

CFB Playoff Semifinal #2 (Sugar Bowl): Notre Dame over Oregon

National Championship Game: Notre Dame over Baylor

What did you think of this weekend? Rankings? Heisman predictions? Let me know below!

9/11: A Look Back...

This article was originally written on September 11, 2010, the 9th Anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.  I believe it still rings true so I am re-posting it on this anniversary of 9/11.  It is being re-posted here with an addendum added near the end.  Enjoy...


9/11: 9 Years Later

Nine years ago. It seems like just yesterday that our generation’s ’date that will live in infamy‘ took place. Nine years ago today the world as we knew it changed. Nine years ago yesterday, the average American knew little of weapons of mass destruction, Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden. . . What were we doing nine years ago yesterday? I know I was a junior in high school. But what did the world look like? I can hardly remember. So let’s reminisce.

September 11, 2001 was a Tuesday that year. The weekend before, the number one at the box office was Peter Hyams’s The Musketeer starring Mena Suvari and Tim Roth, making a whopping $10.3 million in what was its opening weekend. Also released that weekend were the Black romantic comedy Two Can Play That Game and the Mark Wahlberg critique of the music industry Rock Star. That night the music industry had its focus on two areas. Jay-Z was preparing to release his sixth album, The Blueprint, the next day while POD was under similar preparations for their new album Satellite. The music industry also had its focus on Michael Jackson’s concert in Madison Square Garden celebrating 30 years of his solo career and to promote the future launching of what would be his last album Invincible. On this day, a British man found a way to cheat his way to 1 million pounds on the British version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire?. Many Americans went to sleep that night wondering how the Denver Broncos would cope with the loss of Ed McCaffrey to a broken leg in the first Monday Night Football game of the season (Broncos beat the Giants 31-20 in their first game in a new stadium). Other than that, the days leading up to the defining moment of the 21^st Century were just average ordinary days. The day before, the New York Daily News’s front page story spoke of the biggest threat to the city at the time: killer mold in an east-side apartment. So what were some of the other main differences between now and then? Let’s look at what our culture looked like through a lens that gives profound snapshots of culture at that or any time: movies.

Two years before 9/11, the movie everyone was talking about as the perfect snapshot of our culture was the Oscar-winning film American Beauty. The focus? A man going through a mid-life crisis that quits his job, buys his dream car, and tries to get in shape to impress his daughter’s friend while his wife looks for great success as a real estate agent. Many of those themes are now long lost dreams in a society where jobs are scarce, classic “gas-guzzling” cars are almost considered evil, and the real estate market is struggling to say the least.

Other ideas found in movies are considered foreign and obsolete now. No more can we see Nicolas Cage doing his action sprint down an airport terminal to meet Tea Leoni just before she gets on her plane like in 2000’s The Family Man. No more could Lloyd Christmas fall off the jetway, again, as a limo driver in Dumb and Dumber. No more can Fletcher Reed hijack a flight of stairs and chase down an airplane, making it stop by throwing shoes at the cockpit so his son won’t have to go Boston in Liar Liar. No more can Greg Focker use his Chinese Death Grip on his suitcase while screaming it’s not a bomb (which makes everyone think it is a bomb) and not be considered an enemy of the state like in Meet the Parents. The days in which these acts were acceptable are now gone due to them being breaches in new security and potential terrorist threats. Films that depict direct attacks on our nation are even more forbidden. No more can we watch President Harrison Ford make terrorist Gary Oldman “get off his plane” in Air Force One. No more can aliens come down to Earth and blow up the White House like in Independence Day. Even films like Con Air where an airplane is seen crashing through the streets on Las Vegas would have a tough time being filmed. If you really think of these moments being filmed the way they were in our post-9/11 culture, you realize that there is no way they could be made.

So what has changed in our movies these last nine years? Instead of the care-free Lester Burnham in American Beauty, we have Ryan Bingham, George Clooney’s professional downsizer in Up in the Air. This film also portrays the new look of airports, with stricter security checks and a lead character that purposefully wears slip-on shoes to be more efficient after they run through the X-ray scanner. Instead of war films looking back at the great wars of our past like Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line, we have our new war to dramatize on the screen in films like The Hurt Locker and Stop-Loss. Outside of Up in the Air and films set before 2001, I cannot even think of a meaningful scene in a movie that takes place in an airport that does not involve Viktor Navorski. This used to be a stereotypically perfect place for a climactic scene. Now, it is not even attempted. Instead of trying to create something fresh and original, we find more often than not our focus goes towards direct critiques and commentaries on our culture and government in films like W., Fahrenheit 9/11, An Inconvenient Truth, Michael Clayton, and others. It almost feels like our originality was put into a recession when the World Trade Center tumbled to the ground, as most of the more original ideas of the last decade have been remakes of older films. Life as we know it was changed forever that day, and our movies show it.

[ADDENDUM]  If there is one other trend in this post-9/11 era of film making, it is the emergence of the superhero movie.  These blockbusters have dominated the box office almost every summer since Spider-Man in 2002.  This new brand of superhero film is far different from the campy, quirky styles of Tim Burton and Joel Schumacher who sparked the superhero interest in the 80's and 90's.  Now, superhero films are dark and realistic.  They try to make it feel like this situation could actually exist in our world.  Tony Stark was even taken in by cave-dwelling terrorists.  Also, every superhero film seems to threaten the well-being of the entire world in some serious way before good wins out in the end.  It is as if we were so starving for a sign that good can triumph over evil that we wanted to meld our fantasy superheroes with our terror-stricken society.  Why couldn't Batman come flying in and save our world from the terror about to strike?  Why couldn't Iron Man travel to the Middle East and wipe out a group of terrorists in an afternoon?  Why couldn't The Avengers assemble and defend NYC from a seemingly unstoppable onslaught of evil?  We needed a disconnect that gave us hope.  Superheroes have been able to do that, and will continue to as many of the big blockbusters announced in future years continue this trend.  [END ADDENDUM]

As the years pass, life will slowly start to look a little more like September 10, 2001. With each year, you can see small changes. The fact that we just had a film like Up in the Air, focused in airports and on airplanes, nominated for Best Picture is showing that change. Also, the events are starting to be a little less vivid in everyone’s mind. We observe and remember the day, but it does not resonate as in our everyday lives anymore. (My way of observing the day is viewing one, if not both, of the movies made about that day: Paul Greengrass’s United 93 and Oliver Stone’s World Trade Center.) If you think about it, 90% of teenagers now most likely remember very little about that day because they were so young. On a day five years ago when all news channels were broadcasting different remembrances and tributes around the country, today the tributes can now only be found on The History Channel. Life is moving on, and the post-9/11 life is the normal way of life more and more every day. And as we remember and observe the 9^th anniversary, it is fascinating to look back now on what we looked like before that day, to keep in mind what happened, and to step back and see the lens that our new ’date that will live in infamy’ has created for us to see the world through.

What do you remember? What are your thoughts?

See the original post here.