Top 10 Movie Predictions for the Upcoming Decade!

As we journey into a brand new decade, we always tend to look back at the decade that was and reflect.  We make our Top Ten Lists - giving you our favorite movies, characters, moments, etc.  They are always challenging, therapeutic, but mostly a blast to put together!  

So, as I was in the process of making one of these type of lists, an idea came to my mind that excited me.  Instead of us looking back at the decade that was, how about we look forward and predict where the next decade will take us!  The possibilities are truly limitless! 

As I put this list together, please keep a few things in mind.  Some of these things I truly do hope will happen in the upcoming years. So, some will come across as me being a fanboy.  Other things on the list, are the direction I see Hollywood would go for stories.  No time frame will be given, as ten years is a very long time and will be hard to point to exactly where things will fall. So without further ado, here are my predictions of the 10 Movie related things we will see things next decade!

Honorable Mentions:

Tom Brady Biopic

Blu-Rays will become this decades DVDs

 

Disney buys back all the Marvel properties

A24 makes a blockbuster horror film

 Almost Sideways get quoted from a review

10.

The MCU will have a Rotten Movie

At the time of writing this, the MCU (Marvel Cinematic Universe) is 23 films in and still going strong.  With a full slate of films on the horizon there aren't any signs of slowing down.  With their upcoming slate featuring such films as Black Widow, Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness, Thor: Love and Thunder, and Black Panther 2, just to name a few.  Being owned by Disney will also add a significant amount of resources at their disposal.  

With each release fans will continue to flock to the theater to watch these epic films.  Being a fan of this universe and the comics, it's hard not to have a great time with each release.  Marvel is showing that they want to take more risk with their films, by introducing the multiverse and more cosmic stories as well.

Being 23 films in, the MCU still has a spotless record based on the tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes!

23 films in, every film but 2 (Thor: The Dark World, The Incredible Hulk) are certified fresh by critics on Rotten Tomatoes.  So the prediction is that the good luck that the MCU is having will run out and they will be given their first rotten film!  The film will still cross the billion dollar mark but it won't be a spotless record anymore.  

9.

Music Biopic Shared Universe?

This one, I'll admit this might be a bit of a stretch and mostly something I would love to see.  The Shared Universe is something that is becoming more and more of a common occurrence at this point.  With the MCU leading the way, followed by the likes of DCEU. The Dark Universe, and MonsterVerse. 

For this idea to actually work they would have to get a lot of people on board and come up with a solid game plan.  We don't have to go too far to see that this idea could very well become a reality.  In 2017, the Tupac biopic, All Eyez on Me, released with an actor who had previously played a rapper in a different film.  Jamal Woolard was cast to reprise his role from Notorious (2009) playing The Notorious B.I.G..  As an audience member, it was so awesome to see someone play the same iconic rapper in both films!  

I do have some ideas of bands and rappers I would love to see have this connected universe:

Nirvana vs Pearl Jam, John Lennon w/ The Beatles vs Bob Dylan, Van Halen, Guns and Roses, Metallica, Ozzy Osbourne/Black Sabbath, Flavor Flav/Public Enemy, The Wu-Tang Klan and many more.  Heck, make a biopic about Madonna and have Taron Egerton play Elton John again!

8.

Netflix wins Best Picture

Now this one might happen sooner rather than later! As the 2019 Oscar race heats up - Netflix has two films that are bidding for the Best Picture Oscar (The Irishman, Marriage Story) against the likes of Parasite, 1917, Bombshell and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood!  I can totally see either of the Netflix movies going home happy on Oscar night, however my personal pick is Parasite to win.

Netflix, for a long time was the only streaming service around, but recently many more companies have been craving a piece of that streaming pie! With the rise of Amazon and the new addition of Disney+, streaming has become a more prominent form to digest our entertainment.  Sometimes being the first to the party means that your last for the recognition.  If Netflix doesn't win this year, I think in the next few years they will eventually earn their Oscar.

As of now, Netflix's biggest Oscar wins so far are for - Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Film for Roma (2018) and Best Documentary for Icarus (2018).  

7.

Jon Favreau takes over Star Wars

With the Skywalker saga finally wrapping up, I find it highly unlikely that Kathleen Kennedy renews her contract with Disney to stay on board as overseer of the Star Wars I.P.  Back when Disney acquired the rights to Star Wars, fans were overjoyed for the possibility for more journeys to a galaxy far far away!  In the years since that feeling has been a sour taste in many fan's mouths.  The fanbase has become a toxic one that even for myself has felt like an inescapable Sarlac pit.  Kathleen Kennedy, has been at the forefront of a lot of the fan backlash.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens, even though being a carbon copy of A New Hope, made critics and fans alike celebrate!  But every release since received more and more backlash from fans.  If it was stories we didn't want to see (Solo: A Star Wars Story), a film that truly divided fans (The Last Jedi), a character that is compared to being a Mary Sue (Rey), and a complete course correction (Rise of Skywalker) - these things broke the fan base.  Also with every film, there have been directors that have been fired or let go (Lord and Miller, Colin Trevorrow) for creative differences by Kathleen Kennedy.  But for me the biggest thing that was wrong with how things were run was that there wasn't a guideline that they stuck to while making these films!  Problems like that come from management and unforgettably that is Kathleen Kennedy!

The one bright spot for Star Wars has been on Disney+, The Mandalorian.  By far the best thing that Disney has done with the Star Wars I.P., created by Jon Favreau.  He would be perfect for the role as the head of Star Wars for Disney.  He has the experience with the property and knows how to tell stories that has a lot of moving parts (Marvel).  He's already familiar with the Disney higher-ups, as well.  If he, and Dave Filoni (head of Lucasfilm Animation) as his number two take over Star Wars, I truly feel it would be in good hands and fans would be happy too!

6.

First Time Oscar Winners! 

There are so many amazing actors and actresses, that I feel will finally win an Oscar sometime this next decade!  Each actor that I will mention has given me some of my favorite performances of the past decade.  So with that complete bias, I truly hope they continue doing amazing work and get rewarded for it as well!  I'll mention the actors and actresses below along with some of the roles I loved from the last decade!

Adam Driver - Marriage Story, Paterson, Star Wars, Blackkklansman, Silence

Amy Adams - Arrival, Nocturnal Animals,

Ben Foster - Leave No Trace, Hell or High Water

Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out, Widows, Black Panther, Queen and Slim

Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place, Sicario, Edge of Tomorrow

Florence Pugh - Fighting with my Family, Little Women, Midsommar 

Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler, Prisoners, Enemy, 

Ryan Gosling - Blade Runner 2049, Drive, Blue Valentine, La La Land

The list is endless!

5.

Daniel Day Lewis returns

While we are on the topic of Oscar winners, let's talk about one of our favorites!  Daniel Day-Lewis has gone on the record saying that he's retiring from acting,  Making his final film, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (2017). 

He's a man who's is totally devoted to his craft and perfecting every role he takes!   I can understand why he might want to walk away.  However, I refuse to think that we have seen the last of this great performer!  Just like another one of my favorite actors, Joe Pesci, the right role could bring him out of retirement!  The only question now is what role would he make his comeback with. In my dream world, Quentin Tarantino would write some crazy role that he couldn't refuse!  I can dream, right?

4.

A Great Video Game Movie?!?

The video game medium has been around for a very long time and has brought some amazing characters and stories.  Very recently, I've been getting back into playing games.  There are so many great ones now, I'm truly having a hard time catching up on all the ones I want to play!  

The beautiful thing about games compared to movies, is that you have longer with the characters and story.  Movies average roughly 2 hrs, where as a game could last 10-20 hrs or more depending on the type of game you play.  Also, you get to control the character and have a longer time with them as well.

However, video games haven't translated to films as well as one might think.  We have seen some video game franchises try to make the jump to the big screen (Tomb Raider, Resident Evil, Super Mario Bros, Mortal Kombat) but were a shell of the greatness they once were.  

This next decade will see a brand new generation of video game consoles (PS5 and XBOX 2) release in 2020!  Also, with some amazing story driven games the time might finally be here for a great video game movie!  We could have an epic war invasion film (Gears of War), battle giant dinosaur robots (Horizon Zero Dawn), reboot horror classics (Resident Evil, Doom, Silent Hill), search for a lost treasure (Uncharted), or battle alongside the Chief (Halo).  But if we are being honest the correct video game to make into a GREAT film is Metal Gear Solid!

3.

Female Best Directors!

One of the hot topics of this last decade was put in place with a simple hashtag: #oscarsowhite. Now, I'm fully aware that while the Oscars are by no means perfect in who gets nominated, at least things are moving in better direction.  More people of color are being nominated each year!  Progress is progress and more is always needed!  One big thing I would like to see happen is more female directors get the recognition they deserve.

The last few years we have seen some amazing films from the likes of Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman), Lulu Wang (The Farewell), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird, Little Women), Ava DuVernay (Selma), Debra Granik (Leave No Trace), and Chloe Zhao (The Rider), just to name a few!  Each visionary brings unique perspective that I appreciate. These women weave together their narratives with such ease.  I hope that these women inspire more women to become future directors!  I believe that more women in this decade will be nominated and we will at least see two women take home the Best Director Oscar!  I can't wait to experience their films!

2.

Films surrounding the 2016 Presidential Election

One of the biggest and arguably most divisive things of the last decade was the Presidential Election.  Regardless of your views of the man in the oval office, it was an important moment in our country's history.  I can totally see a film about Donald Trump being made similar to the ones about George W. Bush.

Trump is a very controversial individual and could have lots of subject matter that would lend itself to the big screen.  However, I would be more interested if the film follows either a member of the press, or someone on the Trump advisory staff.  Having it from a different perspective could be an Ides of March situation but with more intrigue.  

Whatever your political views may be,  there's always an audience for political films.  Based off the box office numbers from 2017's Vice, which grossed 47.8 million, I could see this subject grossing more in the right person's hands.  Of course, seeing that most of Hollywood does disagree with Trump's views, there is a chance that his supporters might not like the way the film turns out.  I have some strange feeling that Oliver Stone would make this type of film at some point!

1.

Harvey Weinstein Exposure

I know, I was saving the controversial films for the end of this list!  The #MeToo movement has been one of the most important talking points from the last few years.  The Me Too founder, Tarana Burke, first coined the hashtag back in 2006. However, it first gained traction in 2017.  In late 2017, the New York times exposed the long-rumored accusations of sexual-harassment and assault by Hollywood producer, Harvey Weinstein.

The film could be a mix of Spotlight (2015) and the recent release, Bombshell (2019).  It's clearly a film that Hollywood would make.  The subject matter is important, not just for the people involved with heinous acts, but to the thousands of people who have yet to speak up.  Also, clearly a topic of conversation that won't be going away anytime soon.

For Weinstein, the only person I can truly see playing him is, John Goodman.  I feel like he could deliver something good with the role. However, his performance shouldn't be celebrated.  Just like John Lithgow playing Roger Ailes in Bombshell.  A film like this would be the perfect opportunity to have a female director at the helm, with a possibility of the Best Director nomination and win (like we talked about previously).  

Well that's my list of predictions for this upcoming decade!  It will be fun to look back in ten years and see what I got right and what I got wrong!  What do you think will happen in the next decade?  Let us know down below!  

Adam Daly of Almost Sideways!

2020 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

The Oscar nominations come out really early this year on January 13^th, so here are my final predictions! A lot has happened since my last predictions in September, so this will be a lot more of a straightforward and finalized article than usual. This will be my predictions for the main 8 categories, so check out the rest of the categories HERE.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi – LOCK. In this era of voting structure and major contenders cancelling each other out, this quirky feel good Holocaust comedy is going to come in and start stealing awards.

2. The Irishman – Steven Zaillian – LOCK. It is certainly the most accomplished work and screenwriter in the group. His movie is one of the top contenders in nearly every category. The movie is not unanimously loved, but it is the odds-on favorite for this prize.

3. Little Women – Greta Gerwig – LOCK. The movie absolutely should get nominated here. It is a creative, beautiful, and lively adaptation of well-worn Hollywood territory.

4. The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten – The movie is all dialogue, which is always welcome in the screenplay categories. If it was in the original category, it would have a real chance at winning.

5. Dark Waters – Mario Correa, Matthew Michael Carnahan – The movie hasn’t really been seen by audiences, so it is still under-the-radar. The writers aren’t the most prestigious, but Todd Haynes wouldn’t take on the project if it wasn’t something different than it looks on paper. It is a filler nomination and basically a bet fading the other “contenders”.

Others in contention

6. Joker – Scott Silver, Todd Phillips – If this somehow gets into screenplay, we are looking at a real contender for Best Picture. The Golden Globes already kept its forward momentum going, but this would take it to a new level.

7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Micah Fitzerman-Blue, Noah Harpster – The storytelling traits of the film are creative, but the movie ends up being too sappy. It could still be a contender in a couple other categories, but this is an uphill climb.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach – LOCK. It is definitely the frontrunner, but those don’t always win. This might be the most competitive category in the whole awards season.

2. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino – LOCK. Tarantino got snubbed for his last film despite a Golden Globes nomination in the combined category. This film is way easier to digest and way more Oscar-type stuff than The Hateful Eight was.

3. Parasite – Joon-ho Bong, Jin Won Han – LOCK. The movie is the most inventive of the year, and a lot of the winners in this category are the “most original screenplay” of the year. If Parasite is winning Best Picture, it will almost certainly be rewarded here as well.

4. Bombshell – Charles Randolph – LOCK. The movie looks to be a stronger contender than we originally thought. The SAG love is huge for the ensemble drama. Screenplay should be an easy pickup for Bombshell’s awards package.

5. The Farewell – Lulu Wang – This is where it gets interesting. All year, especially upon release, this felt like an indie darling that could translate over the Oscars in all categories. All of them seem to be falling short, with the exception of its love at the Globes. I will go with this here, sorta as this year’s The Big Sick.

Others in contention

6. 1917 – Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns – War films are always a tough sell for their screenplays, but one that is kinda real-time and one-take could take it over the also-ran line.

7. Us – Jordan Peele – The movie is one of the top grossing of the year and still a major contender in a few other categories. It is still being talked about 11 months after release, which is impressive and cannot be overstated.

8. Uncut Gems – Josh Safdie, Benny Safdie, Ronald Bronstein – Sometimes a movie is just too good to ignore in the screenplay category that even though the other televised awards ignored it that it still gets in for the Oscar. Margin Call comes to mind. The Messenger also fits the bill.

9. Knives Out – Rian Johnson – The movie is such a smash hit with truly flashy writing with its whodunit style. Johnson tragically missed out for Looper; this might be his ticket for something much more the Academy’s speed.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story – LOCK. She is the frontrunner at this point, but we haven’t seen any speeches yet. There is always one anointed frontrunner who just starts losing the important ones out of nowhere. Her nomination is guaranteed, but we’ll see about her frontrunner status.

2. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell – LOCK. She is always nominated, and this is going to be another underwhelming notch in her resume when we look back on it. She does attach herself to some pretty baity projects, though.

3. Margot Robbie – Bombshell – LOCK. She is both the most interesting and least believable member of that cast. She does so much in that role, though, plus she has another performance that is a major contender.

4. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers – A Golden Globes win would certainly help her cause, but there is a feeling that she could get a crazy snub here. Everyone loves her and she is doing the campaigning, but the movie is just sorta there…

5. Florence Pugh – Little Women – I have no confidence in this pick, but she was absolutely the highlight of the cast. She has had as good of a 2019 as anyone not named Adam Driver, and this would be the easiest way to recognize that.

Others in contention

6. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell – Her SAG category misplacement is inexcusable, but her performance is so emotional and pivotal to that film that a comeback nomination here seems appropriate.

7. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit – The SAG nom reinforces the love for the film. She has never been nominated, but is she ready for a double nom Jamie Foxx-style? I’m not so sure.

8. Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood – Her performance here is so natural and criticized indirectly that I cannot help but see a conspiracy theory-kinda nomination shocker here instead of Bombshell.

9. Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell – She has missed all of the important awards, but if her movie really is loved, she can still get that Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) last second nomination.

Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Octavia Spencer – Luce

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood – LOCK. His performance has been anointed since the movie came out, and it has no signs of slowing up.

2. Joe Pesci – The Irishman – LOCK. His comeback role is the most impressive thing I saw all year. He already has a win, though, so a second trophy here is unlikely.

3. Al Pacino – The Irishman – LOCK. It has been 17 years since his last nomination/win. A return to the ceremony is welcomed.

4. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – LOCK. He has had a few snubs in a row, but this one just fit so perfectly in his range that it will be impossible to not nominate.

5. Kang-ho Song – Parasite – The foreign films are always going to get snubbed for acting awards leading up to the awards, but the Oscars won’t let that deter them from nominating Maria de Tavira in Roma or Javier Bardem in Biutiful.

Others in contention

6. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes – He has gotten the appropriate nominations outside of the SAG, which should have been the easiest one. He steals the movie and is probably a better bet to get in, but there’s always a surprise or two.

7. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy – The movie just hasn’t been widely seen just yet. The screener strategy will need to be strong for the film, but I wouldn’t completely count him out. The SAG win kept Foxx alive for now.

8. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse – It is the most acting of the year, and he is beloved. He gets nominated for almost everything nowadays, so keep an eye out for this bizarre nomination.

Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Alan Alda – Marriage Story

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Renee Zellweger – Judy – LOCK. She seems like a lock for a win, but so did Natalie Portman in 2016 before she lost everything to an actress who had never won before…

2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story – LOCK. It is the showiest acting she has ever had, and she is heartbreaking. Her nomination is secured, but can she start winning the televised awards? We’ll find out really quick.

3. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet – LOCK. She has gotten mentioned everywhere she needs to. A snub at this point would be unthinkable. But so would a win.

4. Charlize Theron – Bombshell – She got the leading spot over the other two actresses, which is a little unsettling. I think there is a path to a snub since it is mostly makeup work, but she seems pretty safe.

5. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women – She is clearly the center of attention in the film and does her thing, but how many nominations does she need at such a young age? I could see them spreading the wealth and giving her an unfortunate snub.

Others in contention

6. Lupita Nyong’o – Us – The SAG nom is nuts. She really can get in for a horror film playing a doppelganger. I want this to happen so much!

7. Alfre Woodard – Clemency – She has been overlooked quite a bit and hasn’t been nominated in 36 years, but her movie hasn’t really hit the big screen yet. These types of roles sometimes show up at the last minute. Think Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years.

8. Awkwafina – The Farewell – She seems to just be hanging on in the race. Her role isn’t overly showy, but it is definitely a step out from what she has done in her career. I don’t know how anxious the Academy is to recognize that, but her film is hovering around just below the line in so many categories.

Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Florence Pugh - Midsommar

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker – LOCK. He has never won before, and this might be his most explosive performance ever. It is hard to imagine a second Joker winning an Oscar, but the movie has the backing and the storylines to go all the way.

2. Adam Driver – Marriage Story – LOCK. This is the traditional 2010s Oscar winner for Best Actor, but he is up against a monster. He has had such an amazing year, but looking at his slate for 2020, he should be right back here 12 months from now.

3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood – LOCK. If he hadn’t won for his last movie, this would 100% be our winner. He is so good in this movie that it almost isn’t fair.

4. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferarri – He can get nominated for anything. The movie seems to be losing steam because it isn’t any good, but it still has the overarching appeal toward old Oscar voters. I can’t not predict him.

5. Taron Egerton – Rocketman – He wants the nomination more than anyone I can remember. He is safely in my #5 spot, but he has some legends behind him who can take it.

Others in contention

6. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes – He is the only Glengarry Glen Ross member to never get nominated, which is crazy considering his track record. The SAG miss was unfortunate.

7. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory – He is still looking for his first nomination, and he is directed by the guy who arguably gave him a career. SAG needed to recognize him, but they went with the predicted 5 instead. I won’t be shocked if he slides in, but it will be a little surprising.

8. Robert De Niro – The Irishman – He appeared to be a lock, but then missing at the Globes and SAG was startling. I don’t know exactly what happened, if they just thought the supporting players stole the movie from him, but he will need to step it up in the next week if he’s going to get his second nomination in the 2010s.

9. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems – He is kinda in that Ethan Hawke in First Reformed range. He clearly gives one of the best performances of the year (or the best), but the movie is not at all the Academy’s thing so they and the other major awards shrugged it off for no reason.

10. Paul Walter Hauser – Richard Jewell – He has a complete transformation into the real life character. It is a breakthrough role, those of which aren’t usually rewarded here, but Eastwood movies play by a different set of rules.

11. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name – A Golden Globes win would be huge for his chances, but no one really seems to be talking about the movie. I thought a SAG Ensemble nom was coming, but missing there might have been the nail in the coffin.

Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Michael B. Jordan – Just Mercy

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Joon-ho Bong – Parasite – LOCK. This category always goes to artsy movies under the current voting structure. 8 of the last 9 winners have not been Americans, so he has the inside track. Plus his movie is amazing.

2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman – LOCK. Everyone seems to like the movie, and it is Scorsese through and through. The Oscars like to reward directors doing things that fit their auteur style. The production was also such a rough battle that they might want to commend him for that too.

3. Sam Mendes – 1917 – LOCK. It is a clear example of flashy directing, and the Academy loves that stuff. A one-take movie? A one-take war movie? Done.

4. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood – I feel like he may be vulnerable, only because the movie came out so long ago. It was the talk of the town for a solid two months, but it is rather quiet right now. He has gotten all of the nominations he needs, but it could be looked at as more of a screenwriting achievement than a directing achievement.

5. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story – It is as showy of directing as you can get for basically having a play on screen. He has never been nominated here before, but his movie is so well-liked that I feel like he’s getting in.

Others in contention

6. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit – My gut is that he just misses out, despite having a really strong placement in the overall awards ceremony. We don’t have enough time for backlash to take out contenders, so he might be stuck on the outside.

7. Greta Gerwig – Little Women – If they want a female director to get in, it is absolutely Gerwig. Her directing is sumptuous and better than her previous nominated work in Lady Bird, but something just isn’t clicking with the awards and this film.

8. Todd Phillips – Joker – The Golden Globes nomination says it all. If you’re talking about world-building in a film, he has as good of a case than anyone. Seeing his name on nomination morning would still be jarring.

9. Jay Roach – Bombshell – I think the film is a stronger contender than most others do. This could be like Jason Reitman in Juno and get in without any real signs pointing to it.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) – LOCK. The Academy can’t get enough of the Holocaust. It is the kind of Green Book garbage that wins Best Picture these days.

2. The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) – LOCK. It is the biggest movie of the year, even though a lot of people can’t watch it in one sitting. It would be as classical of a winner as we could see in 2019.

3. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino) – LOCK. The movie was once thought to be the frontrunner (was my predicted back in January 2019), but the buzz has faded. It needs to start cleaning up the televised precursor awards to take back over. It would be a very inoffensive choice, which isn’t normally where Tarantino is at in the race.

4. Parasite (Joon-ho Bong) – LOCK. The SAG Ensemble Cast nomination was huge. Only one foreign film had ever gotten nominated there before (Life Is Beautiful), which means the love for the film stretches far beyond typical foreign film contenders. It really can win.

5. 1917 (Sam Mendes) – LOCK. This is an easy predicted also-ran in the category. It will be nominated everywhere and will appeal to a lot of voters.

6. Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) – LOCK. This is the talky drama in the group, which there always seems to be one. It has been a long road here for Baumbach, whose depressing drama is somehow his most appealing and uplifting. It is kinda the perfect Best Picture nominee.

7. Bombshell (Jay Roach) – The issue with the movie is it isn’t very good. It fits the narrative for what Hollywood wants to portray, but it had to be better than this. It could still be Vice and get nominated in all relevant categories, but I can’t say it’s a lock.

8. Little Women (Greta Gerwig) – Baumbach and Gerwig getting nominated would be cool, but I don’t have too much faith in the film actually getting singled out here. It will get the vote from a lot of women, but I don’t know how strong those feelings are. My gut is that it gets in, it only needs 5%.

9. Joker (Todd Phillips) – It has won some high profile awards along the way, and it is as radical and bizarre as any movie I can ever remember in legitimate Oscar Best Picture contention. I think it gets in.

10. Ford v Ferarri (James Mangold) – This year’s Hacksaw Ridge, the movie that is so old-fashioned and geared toward old voters. It is mostly forgotten at this point, but these movies always resurface at the last minute.

Others in contention

11. The Farewell (Lulu Wang) – This would be a real pleasant surprise, especially because it isn’t really campaigning much. There really isn’t a precedent for it, but there seems to be a slight groundswell for it.

12. Uncut Gems (Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie) – This would be like Phantom Thread getting nominated, which seemed out of nowhere, but it really was that one movie that was just too good to ignore.

13. The Two Popes (Fernando Meirelles) – This seems far-fetched at this point, but Netflix is Netflix and has to be mentioned.

14. Knives Out (Rian Johnson) – This would be bonkers if it got in, but there is so much Hollywood talent and love for it, along with the old school Hollywood style mystery format. Just keep it in the back of your head.

That’s it for the major categories! Thoughts? Check out the ARTISTIC AND TECHNICAL categories, as well as the predicted nominations count for each film.