2024 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

 #29

The Washington Nationals are still rebuilding, but many of their highly-touted prospects are on the verge of a big league debut.  How long before they can contend again?

2023 Predictions

#29 - 5th in NL East

MIH - Joey Meneses

MIP - MacKenzie Gore

PTW - Cade Cavalli

FP - The last of the remaining players from the 2019 World Series run will play their last games in a Nationals uniform in 2023.

2023 Results

#26 - 71-91, 5th in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - CJ Abrams

Highest WAR (Pitching) - Josiah Gray

The extend that the rebuild has gone since the 2019 World Series win is extensive and impressive.  The 2023 season was one of very little consequence or relevance for the Nationals.  In one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, they were locked in the cellar from the moment the season started.  It also saw the end of the Stephen Strasburg era as injuries forced him to retire.  However, there were sparks of promise from the likes of CJ Abrams, Stone Garrett, and Lane Thomas.  If only Patrick Corbin could pitch well, he could have been traded for more prospects.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nats took some fliers on some reclamation projects in the few off-season moves they made.  The master of the three true outcomes, Joey Gallo, will be contributing his 30 homers and and .150 average to the DC area in 2024.  The more interesting add is infielder Nick Senzel, once a top Reds prospect, now getting a fresh start after new top prospects left him without a job at the ripe old age of 28.

Most Important Hitter

Keibert Ruiz

One of the main prizes of the Max Scherzer trade a few years back, Keibert Ruiz has turned himself into one of the more promising young catchers in the league.  Now, entering his age 25 season, he is poised to take the next step and become a potential face of the franchise.

Most Important Pitcher

Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin turned a career year with the Diamondbacks in 2018 into a huge 6 year contract with the Nationals.  Despite being a major piece in the championship run in 2019, the Nationals would admit the contract has been an epic disappointment, being a below average pitcher the last 4 years and leading the league in losses each of the last 3 years.  Now he is entering his final year of his contract, and the only value he can provide the Nationals would be to show a version of his younger self in the early parts of the year so he would have some trade value at the Trade Deadline.  There's a good chance if he doesn't perform well enough to be traded, he might just be DFA'ed and see his career possibly come to an abrupt end.

Prospect to Watch

James Wood

Now for the exciting part of the Nationals!  Not only do they have some young talent already in their lineup like CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, but they have more phenoms ready to burst on the scene as they sport the 14th best farm system in baseball.  The name baseball fans should get to know first is probably James Wood.  This 21 year old outfielder was a key piece the Padres sent in the Juan Soto trade of 2022, and now he is ready to show why.  Ranked the 12th best prospect in baseball, Wood is a 6'6" 234lb athlete that can crush the ball and outrun the best of them.  The only thing that could keep him from being the centerfielder of the future in DC is Dylan Crews, the 2nd overall pick last year that also could debut this season.

2024 Prediction

5th in NL East

If all their promise breaks out like they could, this could be the last season the Nationals spend in the cellar for awhile, which is saying something considering the division they are in.  There's a chance their lineup truly becomes elite by the end of the season, but their pitching will hold them back.  There's just no depth and much fewer reinforcements from their top prospects to help.

Fearless Prediction

MacKenzie Gore will be an All Star in 2024.

Another prize of the Juan Soto trade, along with CJ Abrams and James Wood, was MacKenzie Gore.  Good enough to be the 3rd overall pick on 2017 out of high school, Gore has yet to show much of the promise everyone expected.  With that said, 2023 did show some progress, having a 2 win season and almost being league average.  He's only entering his age 25 season.  There's a chance this is the year Gore puts it all together and shows why he was a top pick, a top prospect, and such a valuable trade chip.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

 #12

The Washington Nationals followed up their World Series championship run in 2019 with a disappointing season in 2020.  Will a return to 162 games lead to success again for the Nats?

2020 Predictions

#16 - 4th in NL East

MIH - Juan Soto

MIP - Patrick Corbin

PTW - Carter Kieboom

2020 Results

#20 - 26-34, 4th in NL East

In 2019, the Nationals got off to a slow start before finishing strong, making the playoffs, and winning the World Series.  In 2020, the Nationals got off to a slow start and just about when they had gotten hot the year before, the shortened season ended with the team in 4th place.  Teams often have a down year after a championship run, but I am really curious what would have happened if they had a full season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nationals treated this offseason like a team that is not far away from returning to a deep postseason run.  They upgraded first base by trading for Josh Bell from the Pirates.  They rounded out an already strong rotation with veteran arm Jon Lester.  They filled a hole in the outfield by signing slugger Kyle Schwarber.  They strengthened the back end of their bullpen by signing lefty Brad Hand.  They also got Ryan Zimmerman back after he opted out in 2020.  Every move made seemed to be an upgrade over the player that occupied that spot last season, whether it be Adam Eaton, Anibal Sanchez, or Howie Kendrick.

Most Important Hitter

Josh Bell

The Nationals boast one of the best leadoff hitters in the league in Trea Turner and one of, if not the, best hitter in baseball in Juan Soto.  These two just seem to be getting better and better too.  It seemed that the goal of the offseason seemed to be protection in the lineup for these two.  With young players like Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia, and Victor Robles filling out a third of the lineup every day as players still trying to find their stride at the plate in the big leagues, they needed some veteran bats.  Enter Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber.  Both are in similar places in their career.  Both have shown flashes of brilliance, and both have shown great struggles.  I went with Bell in this spot because he has hit higher heights, and the Nats invested more in Bell.  A switch-hitting slugging first baseman, Josh Bell made the All Star Team in 2019 during a season he hit 37 home runs and had a 142 OPS+.  In 2020, Bell was under a 100 OPS+ for the first time in his career while anchoring the worst lineup in the league.  Now he is expected to give that much needed protection to Turner and Soto while also hitting in a much deeper lineup.  If he bounces back to 2019 form, this could be a scary lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Hudson

The Nationals still have one of the most talented starting rotations in the big leagues.  When you bring in Jon Lester to be your 4th starter behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin, you know you have a strong rotation.  The Achilles heel for the Nats in this latest run has always been the bullpen.  In the 2019 postseason, they pitched their starters more than any other team to avoid having to use the bullpen as much as possible.  Now they are a little more established in the back end with Will Harris and Brand Hand.  The question is can Daniel Hudson be a reliable closer.  If he can, this bullpen should be good.  If he can't, Hand will probably take over the role, shortening the depth of the bullpen they built.

Prospect to Watch

Tim Cate

The Nationals were just ranked the worst farm system in baseball by MLB.com, boasting only one Top 100 prospect, and that is their most recent first round pick (and he is only coming in at #99).  Most of their system is nowhere near the big leagues.  The player most likely to have an impact on the big league roster in 2021 is pitcher Tim Cate.  This lefty is the 9th ranked player in the Nationals' system, and although he doesn't boast the plus velocity like many stud pitching prospects these days, he has the makeup of a guy that can be a back-end rotation option or a swing reliever able to pitch multiple innings.  A skill set like that can be helpful down the stretch of a pennant chase.

2021 Prediction

3rd in NL East

The Nationals are going to be back in the conversation in 2021.  They should be competitive again through a long season that did not involve a deep playoff run the year before.  Their young bats should take a step forward.  Their new additions should add some depth and pop to their lineup.  I really like the look of what the Nationals are bringing this season.  The problem is their division.  As I have said with the previous two entries from the NL East, this is one of the deepest and most competitive divisions in MLB history.  I see a scenario where the Nats win the division.  I also see a scenario where they finish in last.  And I could say the same for every team in the division.  The amount of talent the Nationals have, this feels about right.  They will be in the race in the last week of the season, but ultimately come up just short.

Fearless Prediction

Max Scherzer and Ryan Zimmerman will play their last games in a Nationals uniform in 2021.

2021 will probably see the end of an era in DC.  Max Scherzer is entering the last year of his 7 year contract he signed in 2015, and although it was a huge megadeal (that will still be paying Max for 7 more years thanks to deferred money) it might go down as one of the greatest contracts in baseball history.  He might move on after the 2021 season, but he will be remembered fondly in the nation's capital.  So will Ryan Zimmerman, who has been a part of the organization ever since they moved from Montreal.  His career is in its twilight, but he has been the face of the franchise for a very long time.  If this is his last year in Washington, it is because he will retire.  I doubt he will ever put on another uniform.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

#13

The Washington Nationals watched the face of their franchise leave through free agency over the offseason, however some think they might be better for it.  Will that be the case, or will the Nats take a step backward in 2019?

2018 Predictions

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

2018 Results

82-80, 2nd in NL East

The Nationals have ruled this division for most of this decade, winning the division more times than not.  However, after two straight years of winning the division under Dusty Baker, they made a switch at manager hoping it would get them over the hump.  I predicted they would have a similar result as years past by winning the division but losing in the first round of the playoffs.  I didn't think any division competitors were going to be strong enough to challenge them.  I was wrong on several accounts.  First, the division was much more competitive than anyone thought.  Second, the Nats finished with their lowest win total since 2011.  For rookie manager Dave Martinez, 2018 was quite a disappointment.

Additions / Subtractions

What made 2018 a bigger disappointment was they couldn't make a good postseason run in Bryce Harper's last season in DC.  He moved on, signing his mega-deal in Philadelphia.  However, they didn't overreact and try to sign a different mega-deal to replace him.  They did sign the top free agent pitcher though in Patrick Corbin to join an already stout rotation.  He will take the place of departing Tanner Roark in the rotation.  The other moves were more minor but effective.  Out went catcher Matt Wieters, but in came Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki.  Veteran Brian Dozier was brought in to take second base.  Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough were brought in to stabilize the back end of the bullpen.  So even though they may have lost Harper, the offseason looks like a mild success considering what they did accomplish.

Most Important Hitter

Juan Soto

One of the reasons the Nationals were okay watching Bryce Harper walk away from the organziation was the breakout season of Juan Soto.  At only 19, Juan Soto had a breakout season, coming up second in the Rookie of the Year race losing to the Braves Ronald Acuna.  Establishing another potential superstar in Soto made keeping their current one in Harper not quite as necessary.  However, that is a lot of pressure for the now 20 year old.  The sophomore slump is a real thing, but he can't have one.  He will be asked to continue to progress in to a superstar while taking up the mantle of "face of the franchise" that Harper left behind.

Most Important Pitcher

Sean Doolittle

Talk about a trade that worked out well for both sides!  In 2017, Sean Doolittle was traded from the A's to the Nationals for Blake Treinen.  I think both teams are happy with the results.  Treinen has become one of the most dominant closers in the league, and Doolittle has continued his strong production when he is on the field.  That is the problem though.  Doolittle has a tendency to get injured.  When he is healthy, there are few better, especially from the left hand side.  However, the Nats need him on the field for a full season.  The additions to the bullpen will be helpful insurance, but Doolittle is the one they want out there with the game on the line every day.

Prospect to Watch

Victor Robles

Reason #2 why the Nationals were okay watching Bryce Harper leave: Victor Robles.  Robles is the 4th best prospect in all of baseball behind only Vlad Jr., Tatis Jr., and Eloy Jimenez.  This 21 year old centerfielder is ready to break out, having made his debut last season in 21 games, but he was going to be without a spot in their outfield if Bryce came back.  Now, he will be patrolling center on Opening Day and is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year entering the season.

2019 Prediction

3rd in NL East

I think the Nationals will actually be better this year than they were last year.  The problem is their division is a lot better than it was last year.  Their record should be slightly better than the .500 record they boasted last season, but they will be falling further behind in the standings with those around them getting that much better.  With the high expectations in DC though, no playoffs will be a huge disappointment for the second straight year.

Fearless Prediction

Manager Dave Martinez will be managing the Cubs in 2020.

The Nationals have been infamously impatient with their managers.  No Nationals manager has made it to three seasons since their first manager in DC, the late great Frank Robinson.  Every other manager either gets fired after two seasons or partway through their third.  Dave Martinez is entering that dreaded second season as the Nationals manager.  Dusty Baker was fired after two season of winning the division.  Dave Martinez will have no chance if he goes two straight seasons missing the playoffs altogether.  Combine that with the likely scenario that Joe Maddon is probably in his last season with the Cubs, and it seems like an obvious move for Dave Martinez, Maddon's former bench coach, to go back and manage the Cubs next season.