If I Had a Vote: 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame

On January 22nd, the worlds of film and sports come together in a way they rarely do.  Early in the morning next Tuesday, we will finally find out what films will be up for the big awards at the Oscars.  Later on that day, an equally big announcement will be made as the newest class into the Baseball Hall of Fame will be announced.  Todd talks a lot about the Oscars and who will win and be nominated.  I am much more fascinated by the process of determining who makes it to Cooperstown.

Let's review what makes a Hall of Famer.  The baseball writers vote for the Hall of Fame.  Once players have been retired for more than 5 years, they are eligible to be on the ballot.  In order to make the Hall of Fame, a player must be present on 75% of the ballots.  In order to stay on the ballot for next year's vote, a player must be present on at least 5% of the ballots.  Those that receive less fall off the ballot and will no longer be considered.  Each ballot can only vote for 10 players, which makes this process extremely difficult and controversial.

The Hall of Fame ballot the last few years has been bogged down with a large number of players that were either accused of or suspended for PED use.  Many voters refuse to vote for anyone related to steroids.  Some vote for them regardless.  What this has done is left some no-doubt Hall of Famers stuck on the ballot taking up votes so that others do not get the consideration they deserve.

Each year, I try to put together what my ballot would be if I had a vote, and each year I look at my ballot a little differently.  One of the thoughts that went into my ballot this year is I wanted to vote for some guys that risk falling off the ballot if they do not get some votes.  Second, I avoided the PED guys, not because I don't think they belong in but because they are not getting in, and I want to vote for other guys.  Third, limiting it to 10 players is an insane restriction with this ballot, and anyone who votes for less than 10 is insane.

Two members of the Hall of Fame class have already been determined as the Veterans Committee voted in Lee Smith and Harold Baines.  Smith is one that almost made it on the regular ballot.  Baines is definitely a controversial choice though.  He has the utmost respect of his peers, which is why the Veterans Committee voted him in, but his numbers are less than the high bar the Hall of Fame has set.  Many have stated that if Baines is now in, it opens the door for many more players that were originally thought to not be Hall of Fame worthy.

One of my favorite parts of this exercise is the walk down memory lane I get from looking at who is now eligible to be on the ballot.  So here is the ballot, my honorable mentions, and my honored 10.

The Rest of the Candidates

*=shot at another ballot

+=deserves another ballot

Sammy Sosa (7th year on the ballot, 7.8% last year)*+

Sosa is never going to make it on the regular ballot with these numbers.  Steroids definitely hampered his chances ... about as much as they helped his numbers.

Gary Sheffield (5th, 11.1%)*+

Sheffield was one of the most intimidating hitters of his generation, but the PED suspicion has really affected his candidacy as well.

Manny Ramirez (3rd, 22%)*+

Unlike the first two, Manny was actually suspended multiple times for PED use, yet almost one fourth of the voters put him on their ballot last year.  It shows just how good he was.  I wish I could fit him on too.

Omar Vizquel (2nd, 37%)*+

A great performance on the first ballot last year for possibly the best defensive player of all time.  He has a great shot at eventually making it to Cooperstown before his 10 years are up.

Andy Pettitte (1st)*+

One of the greatest postseason performers of all time, Pettitte would easily make the Hall if he hadn't gotten caught up in Roger Clemens and the PED's.

Darren Oliver (1st)

Players like this are what the Hall of Fame ballot is all about.  The lefty specialist was a mainstay in the big leagues for about 20 seasons.  Making this ballot is his reward for a career well done.

Derek Lowe (1st)

Few pitchers have had the success Lowe had both in the rotation and out of the bullpen.  He was an important part of some great years in Boston, and a part of one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history (thanks Seattle).

Freddy Garcia (1st)

At his best, he was dominant.  At his worst, he was effective.  History might remember him most as being the pitcher who got the last out in the crazy All Star Game tie.

Jason Bay (1st)

Similar to Garcia, his peak was dominant, but it wasn't that long.  One of the more likable players of his generation.

Jon Garland (1st)

He never was dominant but was solid for a decade.

Juan Pierre (1st)

He was one of the more unique players of the 2000's.  Sabermetrics would have loved him.

Kevin Youkilis (1st)

Youkilis was an old school player that the new school stats loved.  He might get a vote or two.

Michael Young (1st)+

Young was one of the most underrated players for a decade, playing every position around the Rangers' infield.  He never had a set spot, but was great everywhere he was.

Miguel Tejada (1st)*+

Another PED-clouded career, Tejada won an MVP and was one of the best shortstops in an era of elite shortstops.  He has a chance of being the latest player to clog up the ballot for the next 10 years.

Placido Polanco (1st)

Another greatly underrated player throughout his career, his WAR7 (WAR total for his best 7 year span) is better than Youkilis and almost as high as Tejada.  He has no shot of making the Hall, but it is good to remember his career.

Rick Ankiel (1st)

One of the best stories in baseball history, he went from phenom ace pitcher to chronically wild to out of baseball to working his way back to big leagues as an outfielder to being a solid big league hitter for awhile.  What a wild ride!

Roy Oswalt (1st)*+

Another I wish I could vote for, Oswalt's peak was better than almost anyone on this ballot (WAR7 was better than Manny).  His career fell off pretty drastically at the end of his career, but his changeup was one of the best I have ever seen.

Ted Lilly (1st)

The definition of a crafty lefty, Lilly was a solid starter for a long time.  Never was elite, but no one ever wanted to face him.

Travis Hafner (1st)

One of the most physically imposing hitters of his generation, the DH was always hampered by injuries throughout his time in the league.  When he was healthy, he hit the ball a long way.

Vernon Wells (1st)*

The start of his career may have been on a Cooperstown track, but when he had a potential for superstardom he turned into a solid contributor never reaching the heights his potential showed.

Honorable Mentions

Billy Wagner (4th, 11.1%)

I am a huge fan of Billy Wagner and think he deserves much more consideration than he is getting.  He was just as dominant as a guy like Trevor Hoffman, who made the Hall last year.  I just ran out of room.

Jeff Kent (6th, 14.5%)

His numbers boggle me every year.  The best offensive second baseman of all time seems to have no chance of making it to Cooperstown.  Even though he had no connection to PED's, I think the fact that his career numbers are compared to his PED peers hurt his candidacy.

Barry Bonds (7th, 56.4%)

Bonds belongs in the Hall.  I don't care what he did or how he cheated, that kind of dominance belongs in Cooperstown.  His votes have continued to improve each year, but I don't know if he is ever getting there.

Roger Clemens (7th, 57.3%)

Obviously, most voters lump Bonds and Clemens together.  Almost the same amount of votes, and almost the same amount of dominance.  If one gets in, the other will get in.

Fred McGriff (10th, 23.2%)

This is his last year on the ballot, and there has been a major push for him to get more consideration.  I think his candidacy was helped more than anyone by the election of Harold Baines.  McGriff was a great power hitter of his time and might get in with the Veterans Committee, but he won't get to 75% this year.  I tried really hard to fit him on my ballot, but he just missed.

My Ballot

(in order of years on the ballot)

1.  Lance Berkman (1st)

This might be a surprising pick, but it is very easy to forget how great he was.  He had a career OPS+ of 144, which is 4th on this year's ballot only to Bonds, Manny, and Edgar.  He was a much better hitter than people give him credit for (a switch hitter at that).  He played all over the field throughout his career too, getting time at all three outfield positions and first base.  This is a vote I am casting to make sure he gets more consideration.  I am not 100% convinced he is a Hall of Famer, but he is much closer to being a Hall of Famer than some people may think.

2.  Mariano Rivera (1st)

Every year there is a no doubter entering the ballot.  Is there a obvious choice for the Hall of Fame than Mariano Rivera?  The question hasn't been, "Will he make it?"  It has been, "Will he be unanimous?"  Well, no one has been unanimous and Mo won't be either.  A handful of voters still don't think closers are real baseball players.  However, it is rare you get to see someone that is the best to ever do what he did.  That was Rivera.  Helping his legacy is the fact that he was even better in the playoffs than he was in the regular season, which is saying something.

3.  Roy Halladay (1st)

There was an 8 year stretch where you could easily say Roy Halladay was one of the top two or three pitchers in all of baseball.  He won the Cy Young twice, finished 2nd twice, and finished 3rd once.  He is one of only two pitchers to ever throw a no hitter in the postseason.  Some have questioned his candidacy, but he has always passed the eye test of what a Hall of Famer looks like for me.  I think it is safe to say his candidacy is being aided by his tragic death in November 2017.  That will be an emotional moment in Cooperstown if he does indeed make it.

4.  Todd Helton (1st)

Another one to pass my eye test of what a Hall of Famer looks like, Todd Helton deserves to make it.  He was one of the most consistent hitters for over a decade, winning the batting title in 2000 with a .372 average.  He is one of only 18 hitters to have a career .300 average, .400 OBP, and .500 slugging percentage.  This group includes names that are considered the greatest hitters of all time like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, and Frank Thomas.  Every member of this list that is eligible for the Hall (sorry Shoeless Joe) is either in or currently on the ballot.  There is only one reason his induction is questioned.  He played in Denver.  There is such a stigma against players that hit in Colorado that no Rockies hitter has ever been inducted to Cooperstown.  Helton will be the ultimate test of this discrimination.  He played his whole 17 year career in Colorado, put up the numbers he did, and made 5 All Star teams.  His .953 OPS ranks 4th on the current ballot behind Bonds, Manny, and Larry Walker.  However, he ranks 9th in OPS+ which takes ballpark into account, putting him a point behind Travis Hafner.  I think he needs to be in, and he might eventually, but he won't be a first ballot guy.

5.  Andruw Jones (2nd, 7.3%)

Last year, I had Andruw Jones on my Honorable Mentions, but I took a closer look at his numbers.  Over a 17 year career, Jones made 5 All Star teams, led the league in home runs and RBI's in 2005, and had some pretty great postseason heroics.  However, his calling card was his defense.  He was a 10 time Gold Glove centerfielder and should be remembered as one of the greatest defensive centerfielders in league history.  His defense puts him in the top 10 of this ballot in career WAR (a list still including the un-electable Bonds, Clemens, and Manny) and in the top 5 in WAR7 (behind Bonds, Clemens, Halladay, and Schilling).  That means his peak years were pretty legendary.  I think his longevity has hurt his legacy because everyone just remembers the aging slugger he was near the end and not the all-world talent he was with the Braves.  If nothing else, he needs to stay on this ballot.

6.  Scott Rolen (2nd, 10.2%)

I really didn't think I would be in the minority when I put Scott Rolen on my ballot last year.  To me, he is definitely a Hall of Famer.  A 7-time All Star and 8-time Gold Glove winner over a 17 year career, his is one of the best combinations of power and defense third base has seen.  The only knock on him was injuries, which occurred somewhat frequently.  Rolen ranks 10th in career WAR among third basemen and 15th in home runs (one behind Hall of Famer George Brett).  With all the attention that Adrian Beltre is getting this year for being a future Hall of Famer as he retires, Rolen should be getting similar consideration.

7.  Mike Mussina (6th, 63.5%)

Mussina seems to be trending in the right direction.  I have spelled out his candidacy in detail in other write-ups I have done.  Basically, he was an elite pitcher in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball full of hitter-friendly ballparks.  His stats are almost identical to many Hall of Famers, including another Oriole great in Jim Palmer.  Mussina may have never been the best pitcher in baseball, but he was a top 10-15 pitcher his entire career and a model of consistency.

8.  Curt Schilling (7th, 51.2%)

This one I don't understand.  Halladay is projecting to get into Cooperstown in his first year or two on the ballot, however Curt Schilling seems stuck even though they had similar careers.  WAR7 - Halladay: 50.6, Schilling: 48.7, Wins - Halladay: 203, Schilling 216, ERA - Halladay: 3.38, Schilling: 3.46, ERA+ - Halladay: 131, Schilling: 127, WHIP - Halladay: 1.178, Schilling: 1.137.  The one difference in their numbers is strikeouts where Schilling is at 3116 and Halladay is almost exactly 1000 less at 2117.  Add to that Schilling's playoff heroics (bloody sock), and there is no reason he should be missing the Hall of Fame.  The reason he isn't in?  Comments he has made as part of the media after his career was over have been controversial to say the least.  This isn't fair to the player, the history of the game, and the integrity of the Hall of Fame process.  Cheating?  Sure, keep him out.  You don't like him?  That's not a good enough reason.

9.  Larry Walker (9th, 34.1%)

Yet another candidate I don't understand.  How is Larry Walker not in the Hall of Fame?  The reason is because a little over half his career (his prime years) were spent in Colorado.  Both Walker and Helton belong in the Hall.  You can't just say Colorado hitters can't make the Hall of Fame.  If that is the case, we should start letting average Rockies pitchers in the Hall.  (Anyone else want to discuss the Hall of Fame candidacy of Mike Hampton, Jeff Francis, or Ubaldo Jimenez?)  Walker was one of the greatest hitters over the late 90's and early 00's.  He was a 5-time All Star, 3-time Silver Slugger, 3-time batting champ, 1997 NL MVP, and a 7-time Gold Glove winner.  Walker is also on that exclusive .300/.400/.500 list with Todd Helton.  He is 5th on the ballot in WAR behind Bonds, Clemens, Mussina, and Schilling, and 7th in WAR7.  He is 3rd in OPS behind Bonds and Manny, and 5th in OPS+ behind Bonds, Manny, Edgar, and Berkman.  Remember, OPS+ takes where you play into account.  McGriff ranks 7th in OPS+.  Anyone banging the McGriff drum better also be voting for Larry Walker.

10.  Edgar Martinez (10th, 70.4%)

Now for the one nearest and dearest to me, as well as the most intriguing player on this ballot.  This is Edgar's last year on the Hall of Fame ballot and he only needs another 5% to make it in.  His hitting prowess is easily Hall of Fame.  He is another member of the .300/.400/.500 club, joining Helton and Walker.  More importantly, ask any of his peers and Edgar is easily a Hall of Famer as he was one of the greatest pure hitters of his generation.  The reason he hasn't made it yet, and still might not get in is because he spent almost his entire career as a designated hitter.  Some voters say he cannot make the Hall because he only played half the game.  Well, they don't punish American League pitchers for not hitting.  They have started to let in closers.  Most importantly, Harold Baines was primarily a designated hitter and is now in.  Also, in a few short years, David Ortiz will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer even though he spent his whole career as a DH too.  You can't say a DH can't make the Hall, then put several DH's in the Hall.  I guess a consolation is he will easily get in with the Veterans Committee if he doesn't get the votes this year.

That is who I would vote for.  Try to put together your own ballot.  It is a difficult yet fascinating exercise.  Now, let's talk about who will get in.  With some prognosticators that track writers who make their ballots public, we have a better picture of how the vote is going to go.  Looking at those numbers and how they adjust when all ballots are counted, it looks to be a fun and emotional summer in Cooperstown.  Here are my predicted 2019 class.

Lee Smith (already elected)

Harold Baines (already elected)

Mariano Rivera

Roy Halladay

Edgar Martinez

If I Had a Vote: 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame

Baseball has the best offseason.  So many different topics always interest and intrigue me throughout the winter months as we prepare for pitchers and catchers to report in mid-February.  One of the most interesting topics of debate is the Hall of Fame ballot.  More conversation goes into this Hall of Fame process than all other Halls of Fame combined.  This is for several reasons.  First, of all sports Halls of Fame, the Baseball Hall of Fame is by far the most exclusive.  There have been years where no one enters the Hall because no one reached the lofty qualifications.

In recent years, this voting process has been a topic of discussion and debate due to disagreements in what constitutes a Hall of Famer.  Should a designated hitter make the Hall?  Should closers and relief pitchers be considered Hall of Famers?  However, the biggest topic of debate surrounds the players in the so-called "Steroid Era."  Should those that tested positive for PED's make the Hall?  Should those suspected make the Hall?  If someone was a Hall of Famer before any suspected PED use started make the Hall?  These debates have dominated the discussion around the Hall of Fame voting process for a decade.  The most recent addition to this debate is a memo sent out to all voters by Hall of Famer Joe Morgan saying the current Hall of Famers don't want the PED cheaters in the Hall.

The result of all this debate is a stuffed ballot with too many names that deserve consideration.  Players that deserve more consideration and discussion have no chance because voters still have to vote for players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens instead of the ballot starting to clear off some of these players.  This has made filling out a ballot next to impossible.

For those that are not familiar with the voting process, here is how it works.  A player is eligible for Hall of Fame consideration 5 years after retirement.  In order to make the Hall of Fame, a player must receive at least 75% of the votes from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America).  If a player does not receive at least 5% of the votes, they are not eligible to be considered the next year (which is why a stuffed ballot is hurting the candidacy of some players).  If a player is on the ballot for 10 years without dropping below 5% or getting the required 75%, they are also removed from future consideration.  What makes it even more difficult is each ballot is limited to voting for a maximum of 10 players.  Some vote for less, some vote for none, but 10 is the maximum.

The last few years, I have attempted to figure out what my ballot would look like if I were given a Hall of Fame vote.  It is a fascinating process and worth trying.  This year, I took a different approach to my ballot as I voted for some that I feel deserve more consideration that might end up falling off the ballot before they get their true consideration.  I think there are up to 20 players on this year's ballot that deserve Hall of Fame consideration, but unless they get the 5%, their candidacy is over.

One of the best parts of the Hall of Fame ballot is seeing some of the names that find their way onto the ballot.  So before I say who I would vote for, let's take a walk down memory lane and remember some of the players were the stars of the game over the past decade.

The Rest of the Candidates

* = shot at another ballot

+ = deserves another ballot

Fred McGriff (9th year on ballot, 21.7% last year)*+

The Crime Dog seems to be a forgotten power hitter of his generation.  Next year is his last year on the ballot.  He's not going to make it.

Sammy Sosa (6th, 8.6%)*+

Sosa seems to be in a different category than Bonds and Clemens.  The suspected steroid use made a Hall of Fame player out of a previously average player.

Gary Sheffield (4th, 13.3%)*+

Sheffield looks the part of a Hall of Famer, but won't get the consideration he deserves until some players fall off the ballot.

Aubrey Huff (1st)

There are always the players on the ballot where having a significant enough career to make the ballot is reward enough.  Huff is one of those.

Brad Lidge (1st)

Known as much for his inconsistency as his dominance, Lidge's career proved how hard it is to be a dominant closer over an entire career.

Carlos Lee (1st)

El Caballo, at his best, was one of the top players in the game.  His peak was just way too short.

Carlos Zambrano (1st)

One of the most entertaining and volatile players for a decade, his performance didn't always live up to his reputation.

Chris Carpenter (1st)+

One of the best pitchers on possibly the best pitching staff of the 2000's, he deserves more consideration that he will get.

Hideki Matsui (1st)

The first Japanese position player to make a Hall of Fame ballot, his career being centered in the Bronx gave his career more notoriety than it may have deserved.  Combine his stats with his Japanese stats, and he is a sure-fire Hall of Famer.

Jamie Moyer (1st)+

The longevity alone warrants a longer look.  He played for 25 seasons and almost accumulated 300 wins.  Playing till you are 50 is definitely noteworthy.

Jason Isringhausen (1st)

Going from being a bust to reinventing his career as a top closer, Izzy had one of the more intriguing careers on this list.

Johan Santana (1st)*+

He was the best pitcher in baseball at one point.  Injuries derailed a career that guaranteed Cooperstown.  Now he is on the fringe and probably will only get this one shot at being on the ballot.

Johnny Damon (1st)

A cornerstone in both Boston and New York, Damon was the definition of a "character guy" in the clubhouse.  Unfortunately, that doesn't get honored in Cooperstown.

Kerry Wood (1st)

From striking out 20 in a game and being the next Roger Clemens to salvaging the end of his career as a flame-throwing reliever, Wood shows that a Hall of Fame career is more than just a moment or a season.

Kevin Millwood (1st)

Part of the back end of the touted Braves rotations definitely helps the reputation.  Helping throw a no hitter in his 16th and final season does too.  Not enough though.

Livan Hernandez (1st)+

A phenom that burst onto the scene in the 1997 World Series, Livan had a long career but not as distinguished as some hoped.  Still, he deserves a second look.

Omar Vizquel (1st)*+

Potentially the best defensive player in league history, his career might put him in Cooperstown eventually.  It pains me to not even put him in my Honorable Mention.

Orlando Hudson (1st)

Much like Aubrey Huff, his reward is making the ballot.  A two-time All Star, he was a consistent second baseman for a good portion of a decade.

Honorable Mentions

Jeff Kent (5th, 16.7%)

It is ridiculous how low the numbers are for Jeff Kent.  He is, arguably, the best offensive second baseman of all time.  Among second basemen, he is first in home runs, third in RBI's, fourth in doubles, and fifth in OPS.  How is that not a Hall of Famer?

Andruw Jones (1st)

Andruw Jones was one of the more entertaining players to watch.  A five time All Star and ten time Gold Glove winner, he also led the league in homers and RBI's in 2005.  He was a great combination of hitting and defense with a flair for the dramatic.

Manny Ramirez (2nd, 23.8%)

Last year, I voted for Manny.  Seeing where his numbers came in, it is obvious his multiple PED suspensions will be keeping him from the Hall.  To vote for him again, with so many worthy candidates, would feel like a wasted vote.

Roger Clemens (6th, 54.1%)

I have been a big supporter of all the steroid guys getting into the Hall.  However, I am tired of them clogging up this ballot.  Bonds and Clemens are not falling off the ballot this year.  They have a few more years of eligibility.  If their numbers continue to progress in the right direction, I will vote for them in the future to get them in.  Without the PED suspicions, Clemens may have been the first unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer.

Barry Bonds (6th, 53.8%)

If Clemens wasn't the first unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer, Bonds would have been.  However, Bonds is forever linked to Clemens in this process because of the PED suspicions.  You can even tell that practically the same people are voting for the two of them.  Either you think they should be in or you don't.  My thought is all of these "Steroid Era" players (Bonds, Clemens, Ramirez, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, etc.) will eventually get in through the future veteran committees.  So whether they get the votes now or not is irrelevant.

My Ballot

1.  Chipper Jones (1st)

Let's start with the easy ones.  Larry Wayne Jones (they call him Chipper) was an 8 time All Star, the 1999 MVP, and one of the greatest switch hitters the league has ever seen.  He will be making the Hall of Fame this year, and will join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only top overall draft picks to be in the Hall.

2.  Jim Thome (1st)

I'll be honest, I never thought of Jim Thome as an all-time great, first ballot Hall of Famer when he was playing.  However, when you look at the numbers he accumulated over his 22 year career, his candidacy is undeniable.  He is one of only 9 big leaguers of all time to hit 600 home runs, was a 5 time All Star, and is top 20 in career OPS.  He truly is one of the greatest power hitters of all time and is known as one of the best teammates of all time.  He will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

3.  Scott Rolen (1st)

My first "stay on the ballot" vote.  However, at the same time, Scott Rolen should be a Hall of Famer.  He is a 7 time All Star and an 8 time Gold Glove winner at third base.  He is 10th in career WAR among third basemen, placing him right in the middle of all the Hall of Famers at the position.  He was one of the most consistently great players at that position for his 17 year career.  I think Rolen's candidacy is hurt by Chipper entering the ballot at the same time, however he should be considered in the same breath as Chipper.

4.  Vladimir Guerrero (2nd, 71.7%)

I was surprised Vlad didn't make it on the first ballot.  He came so close the first time around, and for good reason.  Vlad is one of the most naturally gifted hitters the game has ever seen.  The dude was a beast!  He almost reached 450 home runs and 1500 RBI's, was a 9 time All Star, 8 time Silver Slugger, and was the 2004 AL MVP.  Also, before his body broke down on the Montreal turf, he was an elite defender with a cannon for an arm.  He has a good shot at making it this year, but he will be in eventually.

5.  Billy Wagner (3rd, 10.2%)

"Keep him on the ballot" vote number two.  Wagner was one of the most dominant left-handed relievers of all time.  He is 6th all time in saves and a 7 time All Star.  Many people struggle voting for relievers which has once again clogged up the ballot.  Maybe some of the votes that used to go to Lee Smith will go to Billy Wagner.  He deserves to have a higher percentage than this.

6.  Trevor Hoffman (3rd, 74%)

If Wagner is ever going to get in, it will start by Trevor Hoffman getting in.  Hoffman is 2nd all time in saves, only behind Mariano Rivera.  Wagner and Hoffman are having trouble getting in simply because they weren't as good as Mo.  Hoffman is one of the best closers of all time and should get in this year.

7.  Mike Mussina (5th, 51.8%)

The longer Mussina is on the ballot, the more convinced I am that he belongs in the Hall of Fame.  His numbers may not be as elite as some, but considering the division he pitched in (AL East) and the small ballparks that are in that division, he had to be an all-timer to have the numbers he did.  He was one of the best pitchers in baseball, especially during his Oriole years.  He remained a top-end starter throughout his 18 year career, racking up 270 wins, 5 All Star Game appearances, and 7 Gold Gloves.

8.  Curt Schilling (6th, 45%)

This one I don't understand.  Many say Schilling is being kept out of the Hall due to his political beliefs and controversial comments made on social media.  Why does that matter?  Over his 20 year career, he was a 5 time All Star, 3 time World Series champ (winning World Series MVP in 2001), and winning 216 games.  He was an elite pitcher during the regular season and even better in the postseason.  The bloody sock.  Need I say more?

9.  Larry Walker (8th, 21.9%)

This is another case I don't get.  Larry Walker was a dominant hitter for quite some time.  He was a 5 time All Star, 7 time Gold Glover, and 3 time Silver Slugger.  He also won the 1997 NL MVP.  The only way to explain his low numbers was the fact that he played in Coors Field most of his career.  However, his OPS+, which takes takes ballpark into account, tells a different story.  He is 5th on the ballot in OPS+, ahead of future Hall of Famers Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero.  Walker is a perfect candidate for a Veterans Committee induction because that might be the only way he gets in.

10.  Edgar Martinez (9th, 58.6%)

I ordered my ballot by years on the ballot.  Otherwise, Edgar would be on the top of my list.  He was a 7 time All Star, 5 time Silver Slugger, and a 2 time batting champ.  He is only one of 18 players with a career .300/.400/.500 (batting, on base, slugging) split.  Of the other 17 players on the list, 12 are in the Hall of Fame, three others are currently on the ballot (Ramirez, Walker, Jones), one is not on the ballot yet (Todd Helton), and one is ineligible (Shoeless Joe Jackson).  On top of all that, if you talk to any player that played against him, they will say Edgar was one of the most feared hitters of his generation.  Put Edgar in!


That is who I would vote for.  Try to put together your own ballot.  It is a harder task than you think.  Now to predict who I think will get in.  This year might set a record for how many players get in.  With two sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famers and possibly two or three others working their way over the 75% threshold, it could be an incredible year in Cooperstown.  Add to that the start of the Modern Era Veterans Committee already voting in Alan Trammell and Jack Morris, Cooperstown will be busy.  Here are my predicted entries.

Alan Trammell (already elected)

Jack Morris (already elected)

Chipper Jones

Jim Thome

Trevor Hoffman

Vladimir Guerrero

Edgar Martinez