And continue with my ARTISTIC AND TECHNICAL PREDICTIONS, which also features a complete tally of predicted nominations and wins.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted
Five
1. BlacKkKlansman
– Spike Lee, Kevin Willmott, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz – LOCK. It
has everything going for it. It is this year’s American Hustle, but it also has the timely nature that takes it
over the top. It should coast to the win.
2. Can
You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty – LOCK.
Holofcener is a beloved screenwriter, and the movie checks all the right boxes
to get an easy nomination here.
3. If
Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins – LOCK. The movie is a wonder
of screenwriting and directing. Jenkins deserves to win the award, but getting
the nomination will have to be enough.
4. A
Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters – Musicals are
not usually nominated for their screenplays, but this one happens to be a
little deeper than most and has a distinguished group of writers.
5. Crazy
Rich Asians – Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim – This would be a more
traditional Original Screenplay choice, but the movie keeps popping up, and it
does have the box office and backing to surprise in a couple categories.
Others in
contention
6. Black
Panther – Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole – It would be a little
ridiculous to single out the screenwriting for this movie, but it got the WGA
and Critics Choice nominations, so it is right there.
7. First
Man – Josh Singer – He has won in the past, and while the movie has not
shown up much this awards season, an Adapted Screenplay nom would be a nice nod
to the misunderstood Damien Chazelle picture.
8. The
Death of Stalin – Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin – The duo
shocked us all by sneaking in for In the
Loop, and they are the beloved creators of Veep. Keep an eye out for this one, even though hardly anyone saw
it. Writers love them.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted
Five
1. Green
Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly – LOCK. The
winner for Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes was surprising, but it does
really fit the profile for this category.
2. The
Favourite – Tony McNamara, Deborah Davis – LOCK. There is a really good
chance that this wins. The movie is talky, but not showy. It is also crazy, but
it is tasteful. This would be an easy way to reward the movie.
3. Eighth
Grade – Bo Burnham – This would be a bit of a surprise, but there is building
momentum for the indie debut film. The category being filled with controversial
choices opens up the door for Burnham to slide in.
4. Vice
– Adam McKay – It would be hard to imagine it getting snubbed, but the
screenplay is probably the worst part of the movie. But to snub it here would
undermine the entire movie, and then everything we thought we knew would
implode.
5. Roma
– Alfonso Cuaron – The Netflix thing holds it back from being a lock, but
it certainly looks like a really strong contender in this category. Foreign
films are consistently nominated here.
Others in
contention
6. First
Reformed – Paul Schrader – This would be the best place to put the
movie if it is to get nominated. Schrader isn’t a director, but he is a
screenwriter. It does get absurd in the end, but it is tightly wound and interesting.
7. Cold
War – Pawel Pawlikowski, Janusz Glowacki – There could still be leftover
love for Ida, and this movie has been
playing really well in recent weeks as it expands. This would be a welcomed
surprise.
8. A
Quiet Place – John Krasinski, Bryan Woods, Scott Beck – This would be
an interesting choice, but if they want to go safe, they can easily slide the
box office smash thriller into the fold. The WGA nomination really made it a
possibility.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted
Five
1. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite – LOCK. She is in excellent position to win her second
Oscar with just her second nomination. The movie is going to be showered with
nominations, and this feels like the easiest way to reward it.
2. Emma Stone – The Favourite – LOCK. Traditionally, she would be the favorite.
Traditionally, though, she would have been nominated in lead. A vote split here
is possible, but I really think one of these two will win.
3. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk – She got snubbed by SAG and BAFTA,
which is discouraging for the longtime great actress who has never been
nominated. I just think there is too much goodwill there for her to get left
off.
4. Claire Foy – First Man – The movie has underwhelmed all awards season, but
she is consistently the most mentioned. She deserves her first nomination for
this film, coupled with her transformation into Lisbeth Salander in The Girl in the Spider’s Web.
5. Amy Adams – Vice – She definitely does her thing in Vice, but I don’t really know anyone who thinks she was the
standout. She is nominated for basically everything, so here is another
also-ran for the amazing character actress.
Others in
contention
6. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased – She has the pedigree, but the movie does not. She
is always in and around the ceremony, but this might be a stretch.
7. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots – She has the two most important
precursors, but her movie just dwarfs in comparison to the very similarly
plotted The Favourite. She will have
to wait another year before her second nomination.
8. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place – The double SAG nomination is intriguing, but
this would be even more bizarre than Jamie Foxx in Collateral.
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Linda Cardellini – Green Book
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted
Five
1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book – LOCK. It seems strange that he is going to win his
second Oscar after just bursting onto the scene in the last few years, but
Christoph Waltz did it.
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? – LOCK. He has all the right
precursors to make a serious run at winning the thing.
3. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born – He has gotten snubbed by a lot of the
important awards, but the SAG nomination put him back in it. He probably has
the best chance to win of any of the film’s nominees, but he has to secure the
nomination first.
4. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman – He should get his first nomination for his
excellent work in Spike Lee’s film, but he has been close in the past. He was certainly
the standout of that impressive cast.
5. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther – This would be a bit of a shocker, since the
only nomination for a comic book movie in an acting category was an all time
performance by an actor that was awarded posthumously. He is the star of the
movie, though, and the Critics Choice nomination shows that he is indeed taken
seriously.
Others in
contention
6. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy – He doesn’t need his second nomination yet, but
he should have won it last year. This would be an upset if he gets left off,
but I suspect the lack of enthusiasm for the film overall will be his undoing.
7. Sam Rockwell – Vice – He is basically doing Sam Rockwell doing a George W.
Bush impression, but he has been singled out quite a few times. Don’t count him
out.
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Daniel Kaluuya – Widows
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted
Five
1. Glenn Close – The Wife – LOCK. The Golden Globe shocker secured her
nomination. It may finally be her time.
2. Olivia Colman – The Favourite – LOCK. She gives the best performance of any of
the contenders, but she is a newcomer to the party, so she will have to be
happy with her nomination.
3. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born – LOCK. Perhaps it is a little too early for her
to be knocking on the door of an EGOT…oh wait she is still winning Best
Original Song.
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? – LOCK. The movie has gotten all the
right mentions this season, even though I don’t know anyone who has actually
seen it.
5. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns – LOCK. The double nomination at SAG made
it almost completely certain that she will get her deserved first nomination.
Others in
contention
It is the first
time since 2006 that I really don’t think there are any other possibilities in
the Best Actress category.
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Rosamund Pike – A Private War
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted
Five
1. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody – LOCK. The Golden Globe win cemented his
status as the favorite. He is this year’s Eddie Redmayne.
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born – LOCK. Only twice in history has someone
directed themselves to Best Actor: Roberto Benigni and Laurence Olivier. I don’t
think he can stop Malek.
3. Christian Bale – Vice – LOCK. The transformation is astonishing, but I can’t see
him passing up the top two, especially when he thanks Satan in his acceptance
speeches.
4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book – LOCK. He will get showered in with the love of the
movie, even though his performance is not necessarily all that impressive.
5. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman – He has been popping
up in all the right places, plus he had another great performance in Monsters and Men. I think he’s in, but
he’s not a lock.
Others in
contention
6. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate – The movie just hasn’t been seen by enough
people to really count on it. Dafoe will win one day.
7. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed – It is hard to project what to do with this
movie. Hawke is the critical darling, but the guilds hate it.
8. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased – He is certainly a contender, but like Chalamet, I don’t
think he needs a second nomination already.
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Clint Eastwood – The Mule
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted
Five
1. Alfonso Cuaron – Roma – LOCK. He could be the third director to win twice without
a Best Picture win (George Stevens and Ang Lee).
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born – LOCK. The Golden Globes didn’t shower the film
with love, but his nomination is secure.
3. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman – He has never been nominated in this category,
and he famously hates the Oscars and never shows up to the ceremony. This seems
like the easiest of his movies to reward him for, but I can’t be 100% on his
status.
4. Peter Farrelly – Green Book – He got the Directors Guild nomination, which puts
him squarely in this lineup. The film’s major love at the Golden Globes also
makes this a really good bet.
5. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite – The film has shown up everywhere, but he missed
out on the DGA. I find it hard to think that the movie will get 10+ nominations
without the director getting recognized, but it has happened before.
Others in
contention
6. Adam McKay – Vice – The DGA nomination kept him alive. This wouldn’t be
quite as ridiculous now that he has already won an Oscar, but the idea of this
movie getting a Best Director nomination just feels weird.
7. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther – I wouldn’t entirely count this out. He really
hasn’t been singled out all season, but this would be one really cool nod to
the talented young filmmaker whose film will show up all across the board.
8. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk – In the past, when you don’t win an
Oscar for something that wins Best Picture, then that puts you on the “overdue”
list until you do win. Somehow, this movie hasn’t connected the way that Moonlight did, but it’s possible that
his exquisite direction snags that fifth spot and opens up the race a bit.
9. Paul Schrader – First Reformed – This almost feels like one of those David
Lynch for Mulholland Dr. nominations.
It could be the film’s only mention, which would be crazy in the current
format, but it is not completely out of question.
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted
Ten (I predict 10 will get nominated)
1. BlacKkKlansman
(Spike Lee) – LOCK. It is the least offensive and most consistently
rewarded film of the season, even if it hasn’t really gotten a relevant Best
Picture win just yet.
2. A
Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) – LOCK. Losing out at the Globes to
another musical is an interesting wrinkle. It is going to be nominated
everywhere; it just isn’t the juggernaut we originally thought.
3. Green
Book (Peter Farrelly) – LOCK. The Globes cemented its status as a real
threat to win the thing.
4. The
Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) – LOCK. It can’t get nominated everywhere
without showing up here. Somehow, the movie is as accessible as any of the
contenders.
5. Bohemian
Rhapsody (Bryan Singer) – LOCK. Winning the Golden Globe for Drama is
crazy for a by-the-numbers biopic like this. Can it continue that run for
another month?
6. Black
Panther (Ryan Coogler) – This is where is gets a little more difficult
to predict. A comic book movie would be unprecedented to get nominated, but it
has shown up in every single relevant Best Picture race all awards season. I
think it is in, but a last minute snub is not out of the question.
7. Vice
(Adam McKay) – The movie is pretty bad, but it is so unashamed in its
agenda that the Oscar voters are likely to fall for it. The performances are
being singled out as well, so this should be in, but it’s not quite a lock.
8. Roma
(Alfonso Cuaron) – The Academy has never nominated a Netflix movie in this
category, and there has never been a foreign film win in this category. Can
this foreign Netflix movie really be the Best Picture frontrunner? I can’t see
it, even though almost every other movie is fading in buzz.
9. If
Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) – The movie is outstanding, but
it has gotten snubbed by some of the important guilds, such as SAG and PGA. It
should still get in, a lot like the way Phantom
Thread and Selma did at the last
minute, but I can’t be sure.
10. A
Quiet Place (John Krasinski) – If there was ever a year for 10 nominees
it would be this year where there just isn’t a frontrunner. This would be a
strange choice and would give Michael Bay an Oscar nomination, but the PGA
nomination and SAG nom are hard to ignore.
Others in
contention
11. Crazy
Rich Asians (Jon M. Chu) – It has gotten love from some of the right
places, and being one of the 10 Producers Guild nominees helps keep it in the
race.
12. First
Reformed (Paul Schrader) – This is the type of movie that was a
favorite, got snubbed through the televised awards shows, then at the last
minute showed up anyway. It is really divisive, and Schrader isn’t exactly
playing the campaign game, but I can see a scenario where it still gets in.
There just needs to be 5% of the voters to be ecstatic about it.
Link to Artistic
and Technical Categories: HERE
Thoughts? Your predictions?
Let me know in the comments or look us up on Facebook!
