What If...: 8 Team Playoff

Over the years I have written several articles speculating ways the NCAA can improve how it treats college football's highest level.  I have looked at 16 team playoffs, Super Conferences, and creating a new division for the Power 5 conferences.  I even wrote an article simply giving the NCAA 5 ideas how they can fix everything.  Over the last 3 years, an attempt has been made to fix many of the issues with the start of the College Football Playoff.  However, there are still many more things they can do to perfect the system, including expand the playoff.

First, everyone looks at strength of schedule in the college football resumes.  Some schools schedule FCS cakewalks, and some schools refuse to play road games (Bama, I'm looking at you), and some schools schedule a tough group of games and get penalized for extra losses at the end of the season.  I mentioned this in my previous article, and I think it is still needed.  The NCAA needs to set rules on schedules.  Here are a couple rules that would help level the playing field.

1.  FCS schools can be scheduled as preseason games only.

I understand the concept of scheduling FCS schools.  I understand that some of the FCS programs rely on the dues they are paid to play these games.  They can no longer count as a part of the regular schedule.  Schedule them as preseason games in August.  Everyone would love this!  It would allow college football to be relevant much earlier, everyone would get a preview of what their team looks like, and the teams would get a chance to have a true game before they counted.

2.  Regulate what the non-conference schedule has to be.

Along with no more FCS schools, there needs to be regulations on what the non-conference schedule must be.  Power 5 schools play 9 conference games and 3 non-conference games.  Of those 3 non-conference games, two of them must be against Power 5 opponents, and one of them against a Group of 5 opponent.  One of the Power 5 games is at home, while one is away.  The Group of 5 games alternate year to year between home and away.  Neutral site non-conference games will alternate as counting as a home or away game.  This will level out the playing field with every team being forced to have the same non-conference schedule.  Washington was held back this year by their weak non-conference schedule (even though they played a Power 5 school ... okay, it was Rutgers ... but Rutgers is in the same division as Michigan, Penn St., and Ohio St.).  On the other side, Alabama hasn't played a true road non-conference game since 2011.  That would no longer be allowed either.

3.  The non-conference schedule must be completed before conference games start.

The SEC has been notorious for manipulating their schedule to make it as easy as possible.  For example, I'm going to pick on Alabama once again.  The reason is because they make it so easy.  Every season since 2008, Alabama has scheduled an FCS opponent as their second-to-last game before the Iron Bowl.  Most of the other conferences start their season with their entire non-conference schedule, and then only play conference games the rest of the way.  Not only should it be regulated who you play in non-conference, but it should be regulated when you play your non-conference.  All non-conference games should be played before conference play starts.


Those are my rule proposals to help level the playing field when it comes to schedule.  Now let's talk about this playoff.  I was a big supporter of a 16 team playoff for awhile.  However, once the 6 BCS conference shrunk to the Power 5, and once the College Football Playoff was established, my opinion was adapted.  Although the current CFP is a step in the right direction, there is still much more that can be done, and 2016 is the perfect example to prove me right.  Here are the main flaws with the current system and why an 8 team playoff would be better.

1.  The math doesn't add up.

How can the NCAA claim to have a "Power 5" conference division and yet only allow four teams into the playoff.  In the 3 years of the CFP, the Big 12 has been left out twice, while the Pac 12 was left out last year.  If you have 5 conferences, you should have at least 5 playoff spots.  Either that, or keep the 4 team playoff and make it a Power 4 conferences.

2.  It's hard to win a conference, and it should be rewarded.

This is the first year a team made the CFP without winning their conference championship.  Now, with Ohio St.'s play and resume, I doubt anyone would have much of an argument that they don't belong.  However, this means that for the first time, two conference champions were left out.  I don't think the NCAA and the CFP truly appreciate how hard it is to emerge out of a conference as the champion.  Regardless how strong your conference is, the natural rivalries that develop when you play a team every season make anything possible during conference play.  Washington almost lost to Arizona, Clemson almost lost to NC State, Michigan lost to Iowa.  All three of those are considered inferior opponents this season.  In fact, only two Power 5 schools this season were able to navigate their conference schedule unblemished: Alabama and Oklahoma.  Penn St. and Oklahoma deserve a shot at the championship simply because they won their conference.

3.  Half of the FBS schools have no chance of winning the National Championship.

This was my main argument for a 16 team playoff.  How can you claim to have an FBS division when half of your teams have no shot to win the championship.  Western Michigan did everything they were supposed to do this season.  They scheduled a tough non-conference with two Big 10 teams.  Then they ran the table, finishing 13-0 with a conference championship.  Their final ranking by the CFP committee was 15th.  The CFP made a step in the right direction by guaranteeing a spot in a New Years 6 bowl game for the best Group of 5 team, but they deserve a shot at the whole thing.  When you have a subjective judging method, there will always be bias involved towards the big brands and away from those not traditionally elite.  Many analysts were even saying Washington's spot in the playoff would be nowhere near as disputed as it was if it had been a school like USC fighting for that spot with the same resume.  There needs to be a little more objectivity in the system.


Let's talk about how an 8 team playoff would work and why it would be better.  First, it would truly reward a great season no matter who were.  Power 5 conference champions would be guaranteed a spot.  There would also be a guaranteed spot for the best of the Group of 5.  Many people claim that expanding it to 8 would make the regular season less exciting.  Well, those same people said the same thing about expanding it to 4.  The reality is it is more exciting when more teams are in contention.  This year, Bedlem decided a conference champion.  What if it was for a guaranteed playoff birth?  Few were paying attention to Florida winning their division in the SEC.  What if that win got them into a play-in game for the playoff?  It wouldn't lessen the excitement of the regular season.  It would make it more exciting simply because more games would matter.

Let's talk logistics.  The system would not have to change much.  The playoff would start two weeks after the conference championships (when the bowl season starts).  The first round of the playoffs would take place at the home of the higher ranked team.  There would be 4 of the New Years 6 bowl games set aside.  Two of these games would act as semifinals like they do now.  The other two bowl games would include the losers from the first round of the playoff.  This way everyone still gets the bowl game experience, as well as having two weeks to prepare.  The 8 team field would include the Power 5 conference champions, the best of the Group of 5, and two Wild Cards.  The job of the committee would then be to choose the two Wild Card teams and seed the 8 teams.  Here is how it would look this year, and I dare you to tell me this wouldn't be more exciting than what we have.  Talk about a quadruple header!

Quarterfinals

# 8 Western Michigan at # 1 Alabama

The Broncos deserve a shot.  They wouldn't have much of a shot, but let them play Bama and see if they belong.

# 5 Penn St. at # 4 Washington

Do you want to know which one belongs in the Top 4?  Let them play and find out!

# 7 Oklahoma at # 2 Clemson

Most people would claim that these are the two worst conferences in the Power 5 right now.  This would be a fascinating matchup that I would love to see.

# 6 Michigan at # 3 Ohio St.

You would almost want to have a rule saying no inter-conference games in the quarterfinals, but would anyone argue with a rematch of the best game this season?


All of that in one Saturday.  How exciting would that be!  If these truly are the best four teams, then they would prove it by winning.  In the past, I have called it Holiday Madness because it would recreate some of the magic basketball finds in March.  What makes 2016 the best year so far to do something like this is there are truly 7 teams (8 if you include Western Michigan) that have a legitimate claim to one of the four spots.  So let's make enough spots for them all!

Week 2 College Football Recap: Rankings, Heisman, BCS Projections

Week 2 was fairly uneventful. There was not a great slate of games, and yet a few of the good ones ended up being one-sided anyway. We learned that Texas is a fraud again. Cincinnati had one of the most confusing blowout losses I can remember, plus they potentially lost QB Munchie Legaux with a leg injury. We learned that the Oregon ground attack can go on the road and put up the same monster numbers. The Heisman Trophy race is wide open. Next week is a big one. We will start to see what some of the preordained contenders are made of. Check out my rankings below:

Top 25 Poll

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati, Florida, Fresno State, Georgia Tech, Marshall, Oklahoma, TCU

Dropped from the rankings: Cincinnati (12), Florida (20), Texas (22)

25 (NR). Arizona State (1-0) – They obliterated the competition on Thursday night, showing their stout defense and potent offensive attack. They could be the South representative with some luck.

24 (24). Northern Illinois (1-0) – They had the week off, but they are still one of those offenses that no one wants to play. Look for an impressive streak to come for the Huskies starting with their next game at Idaho.

23 (21). Texas A&M (2-0) – They once again showed that defense is going to be an issue for the team, but scoring is not. Manziel was on fire against Sam Houston State. I can’t wait to see him against Alabama this week.

22 (NR). Miami (2-0) – They got an important win against Florida, showing that Al Golden has actually somewhat gotten them back to competing. The ACC has shown some worth in these first two weeks, taking out the top of the SEC.

21 (19). Wisconsin (2-0) – They have not given up a point in their first two games against FCS competition, while running the ball down almost exclusively. Let’s see if they can throw to win a game before we anoint them as a contender.

20 (25). Nebraska (2-0) – The defense rebounded in a big way after the debacle against Wyoming. It sets up a nice game next week against UCLA in Lincoln.

19 (6). Notre Dame (1-1) –The defense got shredded through the air the majority of the game against Michigan. The offense is there and not there. They have a brutal stretch coming up. We will see what the Irish are made of.

18 (19). Mississippi (2-0) – I still like this team as a sleeper in the SEC. They had a bit of a letdown win vs SE Missouri State, but they are still an offense who can score on anyone. They are about ready to explode.

17 (17). Texas Tech (2-0) – The Red Raiders had another huge offensive display on Saturday. They are going to be scary for any Big 12 team to face.

16 (16). UCLA (1-0) – They took the week off in preparation for their huge trip to Nebraska. That is going to be quite a game.

15 (23). Northwestern (2-0) – Northwestern is one of those teams who always plays AQ conference foes in the non-conference season and always beat them. They probably have the most impressive pair of wins in the nation.

14 (11). South Carolina (1-1) – The Gamecocks came up short for the first time against Aaron Murray and Georgia, giving up points all over the place. That has got to be discouraging heading into the meat of their schedule.

13 (15). Georgia (1-1) – Georgia got their must-win game out of the way. Their defense is going to struggle all season, but that offense is a juggernaut even with their best WR or not.

12 (14). Oklahoma State (2-0) – Why was Oklahoma State playing at UTSA? They had an uneventful win, but JW Walsh showed that he is their guy and a dark horse Heisman candidate.

11 (13). Michigan (2-0) – Michigan was able to pick apart the strong Notre Dame defense in front of a record attendance at the Big House. The defense was shaky, but it was a rivalry game no matter what Brian Kelly says.

10 (10). Washington (1-0) – Washington suddenly has an interesting game traveling to Illinois next week after the Illini destroyed Cincinnati in the same building.

9 (NR). Baylor (2-0) – 139 points in two games? This offense is absurd. Watch out Big 12. The offense led by Bryce Petty and Lache Seastrunk might just be the best offense Baylor has had under Art Briles. They took apart that same Buffalo defense that Ohio State struggled to score against last week.

8 (8). Florida State (1-0) – If anything, the Seminoles gained some points in their week off with the ACC getting another win against the SEC.
7 (9). LSU (2-0) – The Cam Cameron passing attack gives LSU a dimension that I have never seen them have before. This could be a scary team.

6 (7). Louisville (2-0) – Teddy Bridgewater is not going to have much competition this year, and they are only hurt by Cincinnati’s blowout loss. He should still be in the Heisman conversation, but I now think that the Cardinals may need everyone to have two losses for them to get a chance at the BCS Championship Game.

5 (5). Ohio State (2-0) – After Braxton Miller went down, the offense suddenly took off. Yeah, I don’t get it either.

4 (4). Clemson (2-0) – Clemson’s offense is for real. They do not have a losable game until Florida State heads to Death Valley in late October.

3 (3). Oregon (2-0) – Marcus Mariota and De’Anthony Thomas are torching the competition. They play an improved Tennessee team next weekend. That could be a mini-test before hitting the tough Pac-12 conference schedule.

2 (2). Stanford (1-0) – The Cardinal played much better against San Jose State than they did last year. That linebacker group is the best there is in college football. I do not see them losing this year.

1 (1). Alabama (1-0) – Alabama seems to always have the clever scheduling that gives them a week off before their biggest games. How do they always know?

Top 5 Games for Next Weekend

5. Wisconsin(#21) at Arizona State (#25), 7:30PM ESPN – The two unbeaten teams who have yet to allow a score face off in a Pac-12/B1G clash. This should be a really competitive and nasty game.

4. Mississippi (#18) at Texas, 5:00PM Longhorn Network – We will see how good Ole Miss really is this year when they travel to Austin to play an angry Texas squad who got taken to the woodshed by an average running game at BYU. This should be a battle.

3. UCLA (#16) at Nebraska (#20), 9:00AM ABC – The game last year was high-scoring and filled with big plays. Expect the same this year. Who scheduled this at 9:00AM Pacific Time? UCLA kinda got screwed there…

2. Texas Tech (#17) at TCU, Thursday 4:30PM ESPN – This is going to be our first big Thursday night game. It should be an offensive show. TCU’s defense is not as strong as years past, but their offense is really coming on.

1. Alabama (#1) at Texas A&M (#23), 12:30PM CBS – Everyone has waited nine months to see the reigning Heisman winner take on the 2-time defending national champs. We get to see it at Kyle Field, one of the best venues in the country. If you are not watching this game Saturday afternoon, you are doing it wrong.

Heisman Trophy Watch

5. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville – He is going to be able to put up whatever numbers Charlie Strong lets him, since they do not really have any marquee games on their schedule. A trip to an SEC school (Kentucky, but still) next week may give him a slight bump.

4. Lache Seastrunk, RB,Baylor – It appears that the offense is going to put up video game numbers, and he is going to be the beneficiary of that. It is scary to think if he was still enrolled at Oregon…

3. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State – A week off, and people are still talking about him. He could be our next RGIII, but he is far better than the former Heisman winner was as a freshman.

2. Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M – He has been and is going to continue to be in the spotlight all year long. A win against the Crimson Tide on Saturday would almost guarantee his invitation back to New York.

1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon – If he played in the SEC, he would have won last year. He has only gotten better. Unless the Ducks lose a couple games, then he is going to remain the frontrunner.

BCS Projections

Rose Bowl – Oregon over Michigan

Orange Bowl – Clemson over Louisville

Sugar Bowl – Alabama over Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma State over LSU

BCS Championship Game – Stanford over Florida State

What did you think of this weekend? Thoughts? Give me your rankings in the comments!