Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2015

So, the nominations are out, and there were some shockers, some pleasant surprises, and as usual, there was a lot of confusion. Gone Girl got all but ignored, Selma got a mild pat on the back after intense snubbing, and then there’s the little film that could in Whiplash. Check out the nominations below, along with how my predictions did and some thoughts on this year’s crop. Also, I will include my early prediction to help get you all ready for the Oscar Challenge!

BEST PICTURE
American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Predicted: 7 for 8

Reactions: So in my top 10, I only missed Selma, which I had correctly getting snubbed everywhere else. It becomes the second movie under the new stupid rules to only get one additional nomination with its Best Picture nomination. The biggest shocker is Gone Girl getting the shaft, which will become a theme as this goes along. A Most Violent Year was also in my predictions, which is now the first movie since Quills in 2000 to win the National Board of Review and fail to get a Best Picture nomination (and the first since 1971 to not receive a single nomination).

Preliminary prediction: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman

Richard Linklater – Boyhood

Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher

Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel

Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had the wrong British production taking the nom with James Marsh instead of Morten Tyldum. I also had David Fincher getting the previously clear nomination in instead of Bennett Miller, who is now seemingly the next Stephen Daldry with the Academy. Foxcatcher features the first loan director nomination since 2007. This is a fine group. Wes Anderson is such an auteur, and even though this is far from his best film, it is refreshing to see him recognized for his direction.

Preliminary prediction: Richard Linklater

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell – Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper – American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton – Birdman

Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Timothy Spall getting a surprise nomination and Jake Gyllenhaal getting in over Cooper and Carell. Carell was suffering from a bit of category fraud, so I assumed that he would get overlooked. It was a great performance nonetheless. Bradley Cooper is the new Golden Boy at the Oscars with his 3^rd straight nomination, only the 10^th actor to accomplish that. This should be Keaton’s Oscar to lose, but we will see with his speeches if he turns anyone off. It is just great to see him finally an Oscar nominee.

Preliminary prediction: Michael Keaton

BEST ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore – Still Alice

Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Amy Adams in for Cotillard, which I don’t feel too bad about. This is, if I am not mistaken, the first Oscar nomination for a film by the Dardenne brothers. Cotillard is beloved, though. I love that they didn’t wind up snubbing one of the really deserving nominees. Felicity Jones is especially exciting to see here. Julianne Moore cannot be stopped, though. It is finally her time.

Preliminary prediction: Julianne Moore

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall – The Judge

Ethan Hawke – Boyhood

Edward Norton – Birdman

Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher

JK Simmons – Whiplash

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: This was done when it started. We all knew and know what is going to happen here. Edward Norton finally breaks his nominationless streak!

Preliminary prediction: JK Simmons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Laura Dern – Wild

Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game

Emma Stone – Birdman

Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Jessica Chastain and Tilda Swinton getting in over Knightley and surprise nominee Laura Dern. This is a strange group. I love that Meryl Streep keeps getting the inexplicable nominations. Patricia Arquette seems like a juggernaut at this point. Only maybe Emma Stone and her goofy popularity in the amazing Birdman can really have a shot at dethroning her.

Preliminary prediction: Patricia Arquette

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had usually sure thing Mike Leigh and his film Mr. Turner in over Foxcatcher. It’s crazy because it seemed like Foxcatcher was just barely hanging on before the nominations, and now here we are with 4 major nominations. This race comes down to Birdman, Boyhood, and Budapest. They all killed in nominations and any of them can win.

Preliminary prediction: Birdman

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Sniper

The Imitation Game

Inherent Vice

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Once again, Gone Girl gets ignored. I had American Sniper on 6^th. This is always a very sophisticated group of nominees, and then there’s Whiplash. I love that it really hit a home run with the members. This race is suddenly wide open with favorite Gone Girl missing out completely. I should have just listened to my own commentary all along…they don’t like you adapting your own material!

Preliminary prediction: American Sniper

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ida

Mr. Turner

Unbroken

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Interstellar in for Ida. This is such an interesting group of nominees. A movie like Ida, which isn’t exactly The White Ribbon, simply does not get mentioned in categories like this. Once again, this is incredibly refreshing. Unbroken would have been a tragic snub, but I honestly don’t know who our favorite it. The camera work in Birdman is the showiest, so I guess…

Preliminary prediction: Birdman

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Into the Woods

Mr. Turner

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: So this is the one where Birdman doesn’t get in…ok. I can handle Mr. Turner instead. I think this is about as close to correct as we can ask for.

Preliminary prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Inherent Vice

Into the Woods

Maleficent

Mr. Turner

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Belle in for Maleficent, which I suppose I was just taking a stab at their love for that era of period pieces. We need a new frontrunner now…and I don’t know which one to choose. Inherent Vice! It is no shot, but man I loved those costumes…

Preliminary prediction: Into the Woods

BEST SOUND MIXING

American Sniper

Birdman

Interstellar

Unbroken

Whiplash

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Gone Girl and Into the Woods in for Interstellar and Unbroken. This Gone Girl snubbing really got out of hand by this point. This is a fairly standard group of nominees, and if there is justice, Whiplash would take it. However, I fear…

Preliminary prediction: Interstellar

BEST FILM EDITING

American Sniper

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Whiplash

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: Ugh, I had Birdman, Gone Girl, and Nightcrawler in for all but Boyhood and Imitation. How exactly does Birdman miss out? Really, that is even more of a tough movie to put together and make it work than Boyhood. Wow. Anyway, this is a cool group anyway. This is where we find out that Whiplash really is a threat.

Preliminary prediction: American Sniper

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

American Sniper

Birdman

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Interstellar

Unbroken

Predicted: 1 for 5

Reactions: Ouch, I chose the wrong group of action movies here. I had Tranfsformers, Fury, Apes, and Lego Movie in for all but Interstellar. So what does that tell you? Don’t listen to my winner prediction either.

Preliminary prediction: Interstellar

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Guardians of the Galaxy

Interstellar

X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Maleficent and Hobbit in for Apes and X-Men. This is a stacked category. Normally Interstellar would be the forgone conclusion, but I am not so sure this year.

Preliminary prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Foxcatcher

Guardians of the Galaxy

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Predicted: 3 for 3

Reactions: Boom! My second aced category! Shh…don’t tell them is was the easiest one…

Preliminary prediction: Foxcatcher

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Everything Is Awesome” – The Lego Movie

“Glory” – Selma

“Grateful” – Beyond the Lights

“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” – Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me

“Lost Stars” – Begin Again

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I only got the “Glory” and Glen Campbell right, missing the others in favor of songs from Big Eyes, Boyhood, and Unbroken. So, the Lonely Island guys are nominees. Everything really is awesome.

Preliminary prediction: “Glory”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

The Theory of Everything

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed Mr. Turner in favor of…sigh…Gone Girl. The Theory of Everything is clearly the best score of the year, but that is not usually what wins. It is the catchy music, which is why Budapest takes it.

Preliminary prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Citizenfour

Finding Vivian Maier

Last Days in Vietnam

The Salt of the Earth

Virunga

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Case Against 8 and Citizen Koch in for Finding Vivian Maier and The Salt of the Earth. Not having seen any of these, I won’t even try to sound like I know what I’m talking about.

Preliminary prediction: The Salt of the Earth

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ida

Leviathan

Tangerines

Timbuktu

Wild Tales

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had some movie called Accused in for Tangerines. Interesting. I have only seen Ida, which is good, but I somehow doubt that it really is going to win this.

Preliminary prediction: Wild Tales

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Big Hero 6

The Boxtrolls

How to Train Your Dragon 2

Song of the Sea

The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: No Lego Movie, oh ok. Wait a minute…what? Um…ok yeah sure Song of the Sea. We all saw that, right?

Preliminary prediction: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Overall predictions: 74/106; 69.81% (67.29% in 2014)

Without the last 5 categories: 57/81; 70.37% (69.51% in 2014)

On the Big 8 categories: 33/43; 76.74% (75.00% in 2014)

Hmm…so I actually did better this year? It must have just been the repeating nominees in the technical categories because I feel like I was really botching some of them. Nice…

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Emma Stone

2. The Lonely Island

3. Steve Carell

4. Common

5. Rosamund Pike

6. Felicity Jones

7. Eddie Redmayne

8. JK Simmons

9. Benedict Cumberbatch

10. Charlie Siskel (nephew of Gene)

10 WORST SNUBS

1. Gone Girl for Adapted Screenplay

2. Birdman for Editing

3. Miles Teller for Best Actor

4. The Lego Movie for Animated Feature

5. Clint Eastwood for Best Director – Jersey Boys ;-)

6. RoboCop for Visual Effects

7. Under the Skin for Cinematography

 

8. Tracks for Cinematography

9. Gone Girl for Original Score

10. The Rover for Best Makeup

Stay tuned for our 7^th Annual Oscar Challenge!

Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2014

This year was a pretty great year for movies, and for the most part, the Academy did a great job at expressing that. First off, why is there always someone with a pony in the race that is announcing the nominations? It had to be heartbreaking for Chris Hemsworth to announce the frustrating snub of Daniel Bruhl in Rush, a movie he also starred in. Oh, well. At least it was someone relevant. Check out my reactions below, as well as how I did predicting this year’s Academy Awards invitees!

BEST PICTURE
American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted: 7 for 9

Reactions: Her! Yes! I love that the Spike Jonze movie continued the amazing success of the National Board of Review winners and rode the momentum all the way to the ceremony. In terms of predicting, I had Her and Philomena missing out. I should have known with that the latter would get in with the British vote. I had Blue Jasmine and Saving Mr. Banks getting in. I am a little surprised that neither made the cut, but these nominations are better. The alarming thing about this category is the complete lack of Harvey Weinstein. Have the Academy finally gotten sick of him? No August: Osage County, The Butler, Fruitvale Station, Mandela…awesome. I really liked Fruitvale, but suck it Harvey! This will be a fair race, and there are several contenders. Gravity and American Hustle led in nominations with 10 each, but they are still both looking up to 12 Years a Slave. It will be an entertaining bunch of awards shows coming up. Tonight, with the Critics Choice Awards, we may see one of the underdogs jump out ahead. But for right now…

Preliminary prediction: 12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

David O. Russell – American Hustle

Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

Alexander Payne – Nebraska

Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: So, I aced this category, but these nominees still surprise me. Alexander Payne was the one that could have easily taken a back seat to Paul Greengrass, but he survived and got a well-deserved nomination for the best directing effort of his career. Scorsese continues his remarkable success, making it 5 of his last 6 movies getting Picture and Director mentions by the Academy (Shutter Island, wrongfully delayed and screwed over, his only miss). Here we have a three man race. We have the director of the Best Picture frontrunner in Mr. McQueen. We have suddenly the A-list director and crowd pleaser in David O. Russell, who has 3 noms in 4 years. And we have Alfonso Cuaron, the director of the technical marvel and box office king. I could see any of them taking home the prize. It is hard to predict a Picture-Director split, but this is not a normal year.

Preliminary prediction: Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale – American Hustle

Bruce Dern – Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: No Tom Hanks? No Tom freaking Hanks? Wow. It has been 13 years since his last nomination, and he will continue to wait for another. I had Hanks and Idris Elba getting in, with Bale and DiCaprio out. I am also heartbroken for Robert Redford, whose performance in All Is Lost is one of the truly brilliant pieces of work this year. Under normal circumstances, the comedy nominations would be surprises, but those movies aren’t true comedies. I love that Leo ended his snub streak. Ejiofor would be a frontrunner, but there is just something about his performance that never screamed “Oscar winner” to me. The clear frontrunner is McConaughey, whose film got a mildly surprising Best Picture nomination, showing clear support for the first-time nominee’s film. This is a category loaded with quality work, though.

Preliminary prediction: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams – American Hustle

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Judi Dench – Philomena

Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: How exactly did Emma Thompson get snubbed for Saving Mr. Banks? That is pure Academy stuff, and her performance was extraordinary. Weird. I had her in and Golden Globe winner Amy Adams out. Her performance was supporting, but this is her first Leading Actress nomination. I am happy for her. If her movie starts taking awards, then watch out for an upset. None of these previous winners are an insurmountable frontrunner.

Preliminary prediction: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper – American Hustle

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had the late James Gandolfini and Daniel Bruhl getting nominated over Jonah Hill and Bradley Cooper. Hill marks this year’s nominee with absolutely no nominations from the other awards circuits. It is well deserved, obviously. Bradley Cooper’s nomination proves that David O. Russell is an actor’s dream director. Jared Leto has to be the frontrunner for his stunning work in Dallas Buyers Club, but his speech was a little awkward at the Globes. I sense that over the next month and a half, his lead will eventually fade away.

Preliminary prediction: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts – August: Osage County

June Squibb – Nebraska

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Sally Hawkins! I love that she finally got in, especially after her previous snub in Happy-Go-Lucky. Woody Allen’s supporting ladies once again get it done. I had her out and Oprah in, whose film was completely shut out. Suck it, Harvey. I would like to think this could turn into a race, but unless June Squibb takes the SAG on Saturday or Nyong’o takes the Critics Choice tonight, then this is over.

Preliminary prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle – Eric Singer, David O. Russell

Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club – Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack

Her – Spike Jonze

Nebraska – Bob Nelson

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I predicted a surprise Fruitvale Station nom over Dallas Buyers Club. Clearly, that movie has a lot more support than most anticipated. This should be an interesting race, but I cannot see them letting Russell go home without an Oscar again. Then again, I thought that about Jason Reitman’s Up in the Air screenplay and triple nomination, but that award went to Precious. I am picking the upset.

Preliminary prediction: Dallas Buyer’s Club – Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke

Captain Phillips – Billy Ray

Philomena – Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope

12 Years a Slave – John Ridley

The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had August: Osage County getting in against my better judgment. Captain Phillips was the one I had out. Unless crazy things start happening, then 12 Years a Slave is taking this award home for sure. Objectively, Before Midnight is the best screenplay of the year, but it can’t win the Oscar, can it? Please, someone tell me it can. Nothing would make me happier.

Preliminary prediction: 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Grandmaster

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Prisoners

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: Wow, nice category. I had 12 Years a Slave in, of course. That snub is strange. I also had Rush and The Great Gatsby getting in over The Grandmaster, Nebraska, and Prisoners. I love that the Oscars didn’t just go for the CGI-looking movies this year. Prisoners is a bizarre choice, but I like it. Roger Deakins is the man.

Preliminary prediction: Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle

Gravity

The Great Gatsby

Her

12 Years a Slave

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Oz the Great and Powerful in for Her. Glad I was wrong about that. This is a rare technical category with the heavyweights represented, but in this case, they are all going home empty-handed due to one of the more impressive Production Design achievements in recent memory.

Preliminary prediction: The Great Gatsby

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle

The Grandmaster

The Great Gatsby

The Invisible Woman

12 Years a Slave

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks in and The Invisible Woman and The Grandmaster out. I love the support for Wong Kar Wai’s artistry in The Grandmaster. Too bad it got snubbed for Foreign Language Film. This is an interesting race, but if 12 Years a Slave is going to take Best Picture, then it needs to win some stuff.

Preliminary prediction: 12 Years a Slave

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lone Survivor

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I only got Captain Phillips and Gravity correct here. I had All Is Lost, Elysium, and 12 Years a Slave in. Normally this category has the Best Picture winner in it, but not this year, unless that film is Gravity…

Preliminary prediction: Gravity

BEST FILM EDITING

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

12 Years a Slave

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Rush in and Dallas Buyers Club out. The Best Picture winner is likely present in these 5 films. The winner is not always the one that wins this, but there is a strong correlation. I am a little surprised that The Wolf of Wall Street got ignored, but oh well.

Preliminary prediction: 12 Years a Slave

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

All Is Lost

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Lone Survivor

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had Rush, Pacific Rim, and Elysium in for all but Gravity and All Is Lost. Lone Survivor is stupid getting in here, with some of the strangest and most exaggerated sound effects I have heard. At least this isn’t just loaded with a bunch of punching sounds like usual. It is just frustrating that All Is Lost was only nominated here. 2 of the last 3 years, one of the year’s best films and most amazing technical achievements (2011’s Drive) has had this as its sole nomination.

Preliminary prediction: Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Iron Man 3

The Lone Ranger

Star Trek Into Darkness

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Pacific Rim and Elysium in for The Lone Ranger and Star Trek. Nice nomination for a terrible movie (unless you ask Tarantino, that is). Best Picture nominees do not lose to non-nominees in this category…ever.

Preliminary prediction: Gravity

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Dallas Buyers Club

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

The Lone Ranger

Predicted: 2 for 3

Reactions: Yes! Bad Grandpa! That is so cool. The Lone Ranger is the bad movie that gets in this category, not Bad Grandpa…for the record. Of course, I could not have predicted that. I had American Hustle (odd snub here, by the way) in over the Jackass guys.

Preliminary prediction: The Lone Ranger

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Alone Yet Not Alone” – Alone Yet Not Alone

“Happy” – Despicable Me 2

“Let It Go” – Frozen

“The Moon Song” – Her

“Ordinary Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had the song from The Hobbit and “Amen” from All Is Lost in for Her and…Alone Yet Not Alone? What the hell? At first I just thought it was the next Paris 36, but upon further research, no one has seen or heard of this movie. Look at THIS. Ridiculous. 29 votes on IMDb. 1 review on Rotten Tomatoes. It sounds pretty bad. I am beyond dumbfounded by the entire situation.

Preliminary prediction: “Ordinary Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief

Gravity

Her

Philomena

Saving Mr. Banks

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I only got The Book Thief and Gravity right. I had 12 Years a Slave in (obviously), as well as Captain Phillips and Frozen. Interesting group. This is the only mention of Saving Mr. Banks, and other than Thompson, this was the best part of the film. I love that the Arcade Fire guys got nominated for their amazing music in Her. I love that movie.

Preliminary prediction: The Book Thief

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

12 Feet from Stardom

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had previous frontrunner Blackfish and God Loves Uganda in for Dirty Wars and The Act of Killing. I love that the latter got in. It is one of the most daring and shocking movies I have ever witnessed. It would be so cool if it can pull off the victory here. I do not know too much about the others, but 12 Feet from Stardom got an applause by the audience present at the nominations ceremony. So…

Preliminary prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Broken Circle Breakdown

The Great Beauty

The Hunt

The Missing Picture

Omar

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had the terrific The Grandmaster in for The Missing Picture. Lucky guesses, honestly. I really like this group of nominees. This category always has some surprises, so Golden Globe winner The Great Beauty will probably not take home the Oscar. I will go with…

Preliminary prediction: The Broken Circle Breakdown

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Monsters University and A Letter to Momo in for The Croods and Ernest & Celestine. I picked the wrong obscure movie. 2 out of the last 3 years Pixar gets the shaft. I do not have a problem with that. They need to refocus their creativity on non-sequels. I like the tribute to Miyazaki. The Wind Rises is supposedly his last film, and he is one of the innovators in the animated film industry. Can he pull off the shocker?

Preliminary prediction: Frozen

Overall predictions: 73/107; 68.22% (67.29% in 2013)

Without the last 5 categories: 57/82; 69.51% (69.51% in 2013)

On the Big 8 categories: 34/44; 77.27% (75.00% in 2013)

So, I did just slightly better than I did last year. I even got the same percentage on one group…what?! This just shows that no matter how familiar we get with the process and material…we still know absolutely nothing.

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Matthew McConaughey

2. Michael Fassbender

3. Jared Leto

4. Sally Hawkins

5. Arcade Fire

6. Chiwetel Ejiofor

7. Steve McQueen

8. Pharrell

9. Steve Coogan

10. Terence Winter

10 WORST SNUBS

1. Tom Hanks for Best Actor (Captain Phillips)

2. All Is Lost for Best Actor (Robert Redford), Best Sound Mixing, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song

3. The Wolf of Wall Street for Best Film Editing

4. Scarlett Johansson for Best Supporting Actress (Her)

5. Inside Llewyn Davis for Best Original Song(s)

6. American Hustle for Best Makeup/Hairstyling

7. Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor (Fruitvale Station)

8. Emma Thompson for Best Actress (Saving Mr. Banks)

9. To the Wonder for Best Cinematography, Best Original Score

10. Daniel Bruhl for Best (Supporting) Actor (Rush)

Stay tuned for our 6^th Annual Oscar Challenge! What do you think of this year’s nominees? Who would you have nominated? Snubs? Comment!