2021 Oscar Predictions: November

We have had such a tumultuous year that I haven’t updated my Oscar predictions since January. The main issue is that we had no idea what was getting released or getting delayed, going direct to streaming or playing in drive-ins, or getting taken off the board completely. The film festivals were all online, which makes it weird. We had no idea about eligibility. Now, we have some idea about what movies are going to be contenders, and there are very few movies with uncertain releases. I’ll take my best shot at this, which I’m prepared to be completely irrelevant soon…because that’s how this year works.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. News of the World (Luke Davies) – The trailer for the movie cemented its status as one of the frontrunners in all categories. It is much more accessible than any other Greengrass movie, and it remains the favorite in this category. Luke Davies was previously nominated for Lion.

2. One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers) – This is a new addition to the race, a movie that almost came out of nowhere during the year. It is getting tremendous early marks. Powers is debut writer, but with this and Soul, he is looking for at least one nomination right off the bat.

3. Nomadland (Chloe Zhao) – This movie is sweeping through festival season. Zhao is such a unique filmmaker, and this movie feels like it could be a better version of Frozen River or something, with an Oscar juggernaut at the center of the story. The indie critics favorite rarely wins, but in a year where theatrical runs are at a premium, this movie could be anointed.

4. The Father (Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller) – Out of Sundance, this movie was vaulted to the top of several Oscar big boards. Zeller is a playwright, so you know the dialogue will be singled out. With the actors he has involved, this seems like a surefire contender.

5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) – This would be a cool nomination, but one that is very unsteady. It has been 16 years since Kaufman has had one of his screenplays singled out, almost as if the Academy has grown immune to his charm…unless he’s randomly working in animation.

Others in contention

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson) – The movie’s trailer shot this up every Oscar heavyweight list, but I’m a little cautious about putting it in every category. The director hasn’t worked much in feature films, and this is Santiago-Hudson’s debut screenplay. It could also be just an acting showcase for Viola Davis and the late Chadwick Boseman.

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks) – Parks previously wrote Girl 6 and adapted Native Son last year, which were of varying effectiveness. That also defined the career of her director Lee Daniels. The material is perfect for a film, but we will see if it is more than a TV movie.

8. Good Morning, Midnight The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith) – The trailer looks pretty breathtaking, but there have been so many great space movies in the last decade or so that movies like Ad Astra are even forgotten and ignored. It has so be unanimously accepted, but with Clooney at the helm and Smith (The Revenant) writing, it is certainly worth a look.

9. Wild Mountain Thyme (John Patrick Shanley) – This movie is a new contender, and it really doesn’t fit with the others. It is much more of a romantic movie, adapted from Shanley’s own play. It has a pretty interesting cast, and when Oscar-winner Shanley is making his rare movie, we must pay some attention.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Mank (Jack Fincher) – Posthumous nominations are not common in this category, but a posthumous win is even rarer (the only one ever was Sidney Howard for Gone with the Wind). Here we have a passion piece that checks all of the Oscar boxes, including having the mystique to win a screenplay category. It was his only screenplay, and it would be a beautiful moment to watch his son accept his award.

2. Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers) – Pixar’s best movies always get nominated for screenplay, so unless we are vastly overestimating this movie, a nomination here seems pretty easy. Docter’s last two films (Up, Inside Out) coasted to screenplay nominations.

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) – This is a very Sorkin movie and a very Sorkin screenplay. The movie was a big hit with critics and was a big deal on Netflix for a few weeks, which is as good as you can ask for with streaming movies. Sorkin is capable of getting snubbed (Steve Jobs), but this movie seems too perfect for this moment and this voting body to ignore.

4. Sound of Metal (Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder) – This movie has been kicked around for the better part of the last decade, and it is finally coming to fruition. The trailer looks stunning, almost in a The Wrestler type of way. It also seems like a movie that custom made to experience with all the sound in a theater, but it also is small enough to be watched on Prime. Watch out for this one to sneak up on audiences.

5. Palm Springs (Andy Siara) – This was one of the surprise hits of the year mid-pandemic. It takes the Groundhog Day premise and flips it and makes it even more hip. This would be a shocker inclusion, but if it can pick up steam with a National Board of Review win or a couple Golden Globe nominations, then this debut writer could become a much clearer Oscar contender.

Others in contention

6. Minari (Lee Isaac Chung) – The movie was a big hit at Sundance, and everything points to it still being a contender in all categories. It is easy to draw comparisons to The Farewell, but this one seems to have more legs, better reviews, and more clear resonance.

7. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman) – These types of extremely independent movies sneak into the screenplay races sometimes. The movie is not a showy script, it is more observant and about the premise than the actual writing, but the movie had unanimous reviews and is a dark horse as awards season approaches.

8. Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee, Kevin Willmott, Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo) – Does anyone really remember this movie? The writing team that just won for BlacKkKlansman had a biggish Netflix release during the summer to varying success. It definitely fits in the Spike Lee genre, but that usually means he’s getting snubbed. The screenplay is one of the weaker parts of the movie, but if the movie still has legs in the winter, then this could be a no-brainer nomination.

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Shaka King) – The release information on this is still uncertain, but we all assume it is getting released in January or February to qualify for the Oscars. The trailer is a banger, and it is hoping for the cultural resonance to put it over the top. This is King’s first major movie, and if it hits, it could be hit ticket to the big time in the coming years.

10. On the Rocks (Sofia Coppola) – The movie’s reviews have been steady, but it is becoming clear that Coppola’s films don’t really translate to the Oscars. Lost in Translation was a special case, and even though she reunites with Bill Murray here, this is becoming less likely. The Golden Globes will have to give it a boost.

11. Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell) – This would be a wild nomination for the first-time writer, but it does have the flair to be singled out in this particular category. A lot of times Best Original Screenplay is treated as Most Original Screenplay, and this could be that movie. Keep an eye out for this one. It has a Christmas release.

12. Tenet (Christopher Nolan) – Out of principle, I am keeping Tenet in there as a contender. It was the movie that was reopening theaters, and while the box office looks like a failure, without 25% capacity you’re looking at a $200million smash hit. It is as mind-bending as Nolan’s previous sci-fi films, and it is even more complicated and kinda fascinating. If we want a future for theaters, the Academy will give this movie some love.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – The movie just screams cliché Oscar stuff, and after losing in 2018 for The Wife after winning every precursor award, Close just reinforced her status as being everybody’s favorite overdue actress. The reviews have been terrible, but she is still worth putting in this position due to her scene-stealing abilities and overdue nature.

2. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – The movie has a stellar cast, and it seems to be a dark and disturbing drama. Burstyn hasn’t been nominated since her last disturbing movie 20 years ago (Requiem for a Dream). It appears that she plays the mother role, which always seems to steal scenes and gather nominations.

3. Olivia Colman – The Father – Fresh off her Oscar win for The Favourite, Colman gets another Oscary part in one of the frontrunners. If she holds her own with Anthony Hopkins (I’m sure she steals several scenes), then this will be an easy nomination.

4. Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite – The movie has been marketed in an almost degrading way, but reviews for it are still really strong. If enough people see it, and the chemistry between Kate Winslet and Ronan is palpable, look for Ronan to snag her fifth nomination.

5. Amanda Seyfried – Mank – She is getting at times “best in show” reviews for the stacked ensemble. She has always been a talented actress and always underrated when she takes on difficult parts, but her pairing here with Fincher seems to be the right combination. We will see if she can win over audiences when they get to see the hyped-up Netflix film.

Others in contention

6. Youn Yhu-jung – Minari – She plays the grandmother role in the Sundance hit. She could easily go the same way as the grandmother role in The Farewell and get amazing reviews and snubbed all along the way, but she has to be mentioned here as a contender.

7. Helena Zengel – News of the World – Playing the young companion to the protagonist is always an interesting role when making these predictions. She could be Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, or she can be Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Road. It all depends on how much she can take away from Tom Hanks, who seems to be dialing it back in this film.

8. Priyanka Chopra – The White Tiger – Ramin Bahrani movies have been hit and miss over the years. I am really just picking an actress out of the cast for this, but it sounds like a really ambitious movie, and if it hits, then it could be real contender for this and even the International Film Oscar. It is a Netflix movie released in late January, so we know it is going for awards.

9. Janelle Monae – The Glorias – She has proven herself to be an interesting actress, and here she gets the juicy role of pioneering feminist Dorothy Pitman Hughes in the movie about Gloria Steinem. It is currently on Prime, so it certainly has a wide potential audience.

10. Nicole Kidman – The Prom – Does the Academy have room for a Ryan Murphy musical comedy? The cast is pretty stacked, and Kidman always gets singled out. I don’t know what her role entails or if she or Meryl Streep or one of the students is the lead, but it is worth keeping an eye on if the Academy is in a light uplifting mood.

11. Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – The movie was a smash hit, and she was singled out in basically every review. She is pretty great, and while the movie is reprehensible, it still feels like a performance and film that could get Golden Globes love. In 2020, anything is possible, so I’ll just leave her right here.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. David Strathairn – Nomadland – Strathairn is an actor who is seldom singled out, but here we have one of the big Oscar contenders and the chance for him to play off of one of the most beloved actresses in the business. He can hold his own, and he will be able to ride the momentum wave all the way to the ceremony.

2. Charles Dance – Mank – Depending on the review, we have about 5 or 6 different standouts in Mank. On paper, Dance has the baity role, playing William Randolph Hurst. He is a beloved character actor without a single major film award nomination. This should change that.

3. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – He looks electric in the movie, but him being campaigned supporting is a little unsettling. Is this just a better chance for him to win, or is he really not commanding enough to warrant a leading bill?

4. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – He is the easy nominee from the cast. He has all the great lines, he is fighting the good fight, he is effortless and scene-stealing at the same time. He also just won an Oscar 5 years ago, so a validation nomination is always warranted.

5. Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami – He is playing Sam Cooke in the superb cast of actors, and he also has this thing called Hamilton that has been his ticket for the better part of the last decade. He will almost certainly be the standout in the cast, unless the voters go for the actors playing the more iconic figures.

Others in contention

6. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – He is being hyped up for his other film this year, but watching Da 5 Bloods, it is clear that Boseman’s charisma overpowers the weaknesses of the script. It is his best performance, and everyone saw it, being a mid-pandemic Netflix release. The film needs to have a campaign for it to come back to the forefront.

7. Yayah Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – He gives the best performance in the movie and has the most interesting character, but his screen time and lines are just less than everyone else. I have a bad feeling that there could be some cannibalization with all the contenders, and a character like his is just harder to back and single out.

8. Bill Murray – On the Rocks – The movie doesn’t appear to be the big Oscar contender that we thought, but everyone loves Bill Murray. He should be able to just live in that character, as he did in the previous Sofia Coppola film that got him his only nomination. I don’t want to count him out just yet.

9. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – He has the role that should be the easy Oscar contender, but he plays it almost too goofy. He is still great and has a real chance to get nominated, but his Borat movie is also lingering, which could be his invalidation.

10. Tom Pelphrey – Mank – He plays director Joseph Mankiewicz, and seeing what he did in Ozark in the most recent season, he can blow everyone off the screen. He is still a newer face, so he will really need to start gathering critic awards to move up this list.

11. Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie – It has the late February release, and Grant is coming off of his first nomination just a couple years ago. The movie is an adaptation of a musical about a teenager who wants to be a drag queen, and I imagine Grant’s role is a dream for an actor to really just overact and not be out of place.

12. Robin de Jesus – The Boys in the Band – His part is one that was singled out on the stage version, and he is certainly one of the bright spots in the movie in one of the more difficult roles. If the voters responded to the film, it would not be out of the norm to reward a performance that got love from the Tonys already.

13. Everybody Else – Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Tom Burke as Orson Welles, Arliss Howard as Louis B. Mayer, Toby Leonard Moore as David O. Selznick…Eddie Redmayne, Jeremy Strong, Frank Langella…they are all worth mentioning here, depending on who is singled out and how much each movie hits with the Academy voters. Both movies are pure old-fashioned Oscar bait.

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – She is the show-stopper, and unless something crazy happens, she will be winning her second Oscar this year. It is said that she is almost supporting, which would really shake things up.

2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland – If she hadn’t just won her second, she would be coasting to another win here. It could wind up being a battle between her and Davis, especially because this is the type of movie that wins the lead Oscars.

3. Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead – It has been 65 years since her last nomination, and here she plays a Holocaust survivor, which I’m sure will be an easy sell to Oscar voters. Sometimes the legendary actor making a comeback doesn’t hit, but this seems obvious.

4. Audra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – There is always a newer face in the race. Lee Daniels movies don’t always hit, but the performances are easy to reward. It has the Oscar release date in late February, so it will be front and center when voting is ramping up.

5. Kate Winslet – Ammonite – The movie is being written off by a lot of people, but Winslet is always in the running. I expect that she and Ronan are a package deal, and they both squeak out nominations.

Others in contention

6. Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit – The performance has been called Oscar-worthy by critics, but Pfeiffer has been out of the Oscar game for almost 30 years. Will enough people see this movie to take out one of the abovementioned contenders?

7. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – She has the kind of role that could vault her into contention, regardless of how recognizable of a face she is. She is the lead in such an interesting cast, and if she can stand out against really commanding actors, she could start to make a run at this category.

8. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – Mulligan is still sitting on her one nomination in 2009, but she has been close. This movie will have an uphill climb, but it has the Christmas release. The issue is that it isn’t necessarily classic Oscar material.

9. Meryl Streep – The Prom – The Ryan Murphy movie musical is going to Netflix, so at least people will see it. It is never out of the question to suggest that Meryl can catapult to a nomination for anything she appears in.

10. Rachel Brosnahan – I’m Your Woman – Up and coming director Julia Hart got one of the hottest TV stars to be the lead in her 1970s crime drama. This mention is more out of intrigue than anything else, but if the movie is a hit on Prime, then it’s a possibility.

11. Angelina Jolie – Those Who Wish Me Dead – This is another Taylor Sheridan movie. Regardless of the quality of the movie, the characters are always really dream roles for actors. It has been over a decade since Jolie has gotten back to the Oscars, and once this locks in a release date, I expect it to make some noise.

12. Elisabeth Moss – Shirley – This is the type of movie that would have been an easy Oscar contender about a decade ago, but now it is a longshot. Moss has been rising up the ranks in recent years, but unless she takes some critics awards, she will still be waiting for her first nomination.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Anthony Hopkins – The Father – He has been touted as the frontrunner since Sundance, and especially coming off a comeback nomination last year, he has maintained that momentum throughout 2020. The trailer looks fascinating, and it is certainly the most Oscary role in this group.

2. Gary Oldman – Mank – The movie is going to be one of the big players in every category, but he will need to be unbelievable to win another Oscar already. The nomination seems easy, but he will have a hard time overtaking Hopkins.

3. Tom Hanks – News of the World – The Academy likes to snub Hanks for some reason, but he finally broke back through last year. The movie is one of the ones to beat, and he looks subtle but having room for the physical acting that has been his Oscar ticket in the past.

4. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – He has been singled out in every review of the film, but we will need to see what audiences actually think before putting him near the top of this list. It is interesting that he is being billed as lead and Davis being more supporting. That changes the dynamic and almost makes him getting a nomination more difficult.

5. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – The movie is getting some incredible reviews, and it is coming in completely below the radar. That is always a good place to be so it doesn’t get overhyped. Ahmed has been in and around some amazing projects in the last decade, but here he finally gets his own vehicle to show off his insane talent.

Others in contention

6. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – What once seemed like a lock for a nomination and a win has all but gone away. He could make a comeback if he were to take the National Board of Review Award or if the movie gets all sorts of Golden Globes love, but he is going to need to campaign, which doesn’t seem like something he would do. If he is campaigned supporting, then he will be nominated for sure.

7. Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah – He is in one of the big awards contenders every single year, and he is almost never the one who gets the credit for it. Here, we have a big, loud, important movie, and his role could easily be the heart of it, as the FBI informant on the Black Panthers.

8. Steven Yeun – Minari – He has proven his talent in recent years, but the movie needs to be seen. It isn’t a big streaming movie, so it is in that difficult spot where the word of mouth and VOD reviews will be really important.

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami – Playing Malcolm X is always going to gather attention, and he is said to absolutely nail the part. They can’t really nominate everyone in the movie, but if it is the Best Picture frontrunner, it would be hard to see him missing out on the party.

10. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Courier – This movie has the late February release date, and it is about a Cold War spy trying to end the Cuban Missile Crisis. He is the only real face in the movie, but it could be the big British movie of the year. The BAFTAs will be vital to its success.

11. Viggo Mortensen – Falling – Mortensen wrote and directed this movie as well, which is about a conservative father who moves in order to live with his gay son. Festivals and such have already been showering the performance with love and awards, so he is on his way.

12. Ben Affleck – The Way Back – One of the few great performances to be seen in a wide release, he has an outside chance to be remembered in a few months. He has remained in the spotlight all year, and while the movie is not typical Oscar fare, his performance is.

13. Tom Holland – Cherry – This is one of a few performances that Holland has this year to break out of his Spidey shell. It is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The release date is still uncertain, but it will be on Apple TV+, so it will be seen…in theory.

14. Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter – Again, there is no release date for this film, but Isaac is ready for his first nomination. The movie is a crime drama by Paul Schrader, which will undoubtedly give Isaac some room to show off.

 

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. David Fincher – Mank – Fincher has to win one of these eventually. The Hollywood story, the black and white, and it being his passion project all point to this being his ticket.

2. Paul Greengrass – News of the World – Greengrass always has really showy direction, and even though this material is more subtle, he should be an easy choice for a nomination. There are some rumblings that the movie might not be that great, but no one has really seen it yet.

3. Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – This would be a great nomination. These types of movies are never singled out for their director, but the unanimous praise for the film and the effort to get as many women directors into the race as possible makes this seem like a no-brainer.

4. Florian Zeller – The Father – He would be the unknown name in the group, but there isn’t a single negative thing that has been said about his movie. If the movie hits with audiences the way it did at festivals and with critics, then he could be a default winner.

5. Regina King – One Night in Miami – Everything is pointing to her getting nominated for her directorial debut. The movie seems like easy Oscar bait, and in a year like this, something as flashy as One Night in Miami could be an easy one to really go gaga for.

Others in contention

6. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – His directorial choices hold the movie back, but for a movie that is so clearly Academy stuff, it might not matter. Sorkin is beloved and the smartest guy in any room. He might just get checked off on all the ballots because the voters love the movie.

7. Darius Marder – Sound of Metal – This would be a bit of a shocker, but the movie is on the rise. It was long supposed to be Derek Cianfrance, but Marder taking over makes it seem like this is actually his baby. This could be like a Whiplash-type underdog story.

8. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – He just got his first nomination for directing, and the movie was a pretty big hit in the summer. If voters remember the film and its epic and indulgent scope, then he could coast to a nomination.

9. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – The campaign is going to be important for the Sundance director. It is hard to see a scenario where he gets in, but there is always the possibility that this is the beloved indie of the year that gets in everywhere.

10. Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah – The movie appears to be loud and well-directed. King doesn’t really have many credits to his name, but with the release date and timeliness, he could shoot up the ranks quickly.

11. George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Is the movie Best Picture stuff? It will certainly be seen being on Netflix, but it really doesn’t feel like it has the showiness to get Best Director attention.

12. Christopher Nolan – Tenet – This would be a love letter to cinema if he gets nominated for his incomprehensible movie that tried to save movie theaters. You have to respect him and his efforts, but is that enough to get people to vote for him?

13. George Clooney – The Midnight Sky – I am remaining cautious with this movie. It is easy to reward sci-fi movies, but Clooney has shown no indication that he can direct something like this as well as say Alfonso Cuaron or Denis Villeneuve.

14. Lee Daniels – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – Some of his movies are trash, but he has gotten nominated in the past. Keep an eye on this movie. It is being overshadowed by other big releases, but this is the kind of story and film that could rise up.

 

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. News of the World (Paul Greengrass) – I am keeping it here just because I called it in January. If it hits the way it could, then it could be an easy and inoffensive movie to reward in such a desolate year.

2. Nomadland (Chloe Zhao) – If there was ever a year for a mico-budget film to win Best Picture, it is this year where almost no other contenders are on the big screen.

3. Mank (David Fincher) – This would be the classic choice to win, but it doesn’t feel like the dynamic kind of film that will get enough #1 votes.

4. One Night in Miami (Regina King) – This is the movie on the rise. The importance of the story, the figures it portrays, and perhaps most importantly the era in which it is set make the movie an irresistible contender.

5. The Father (Florian Zeller) – This is going to be the movie that is nominated that 90% of the Oscar viewers haven’t seen, but it will become one of the most respected movies when they do.

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) – The nomination seems pretty secure. If it starts taking critics awards and gets a handful of SAG nominations, then this is our winner.

7. Sound of Metal (Darius Marder) – If the Academy wants a break from all of the political choices in contention, this could be a good outlet for them. Like I stated before, this could be 2020’s Whiplash. The sound category seems like a lock for this film, which has become strangely more important in recent years.

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (Shaka King) – The movie has the opportunity to slay everyone with the right release date, but they need to lock it in. I want to put it higher, but we still really don’t know if it is coming out.

9. Soul (Pete Docter) – It seems pretty odd to feel like an animated movie could be a lock for a nomination when it has only happened 3 times, but everything points toward this being one of Pixar’s finest efforts.

10. Minari (Lee Isaac Chung) – The last decade or so haven’t been too kind for the Sundance darlings, but the unanimous love for this story give it a leg up, and the other competition could cancel each other out.

Others in contention

11. Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee) – The movie has the length and importance of a classic Oscar winner, but it just doesn’t seem like anyone really cares right now. It needs a comeback tour.

12. Mar Rainey’s Black Bottom (George C. Wolfe) – Netflix has so many contenders. This could be one that gets the acting love but left out of the major category conversation.

13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Lee Daniels) – I like that the movie is lying in the weeds. So many times people get tired of hearing about the same few movies, so this late February release is the key to its contender status.

14. The Midnight Sky (George Clooney) – When Clooney makes a movie, it is worth putting here. Sometimes his movies are overly silly, but he is one of the most beloved figures around. The movie looks pretty breathtaking, but we will see how it plays on small screens.

15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman) – This is another one of the early year contenders that was actually seen in some theaters. It had universally positive reviews, but it could be a bit too bleak for the Oscar game.

16. The Card Counter (Paul Schrader) – If it gets released, it could make a run at some nominations. Schrader’s last film was “snubbed” in a bunch of categories, so the Academy could want to make up for that.

17. Tenet (Christopher Nolan) – I still hold to my prediction that if this had been really good, it would have been a lock for a nomination. It is just such a confusing movie that its admirable efforts are hard to really go for.

 

That’s all I have for now! Did I overlook anything? What is your pick for Best Picture right now? Let me know in the comments.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

The Oscar nominations are coming up on January 23^rd! This means it is time for my final predictions in all categories. This year has a lot of factors that keep the race up in the air, particularly the #MeToo movement, lingering #OscarsSoWhite frustrations, a horror-comedy in the forefront of the Oscar race, as well as backlash to the perceived frontrunner in the major categories Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Nothing this year is set in stone, except for the fact that The Shape of Water is going to make a run at a record 15 nominations. Read up on the major categories, as well as my ARTISTIC AND TECHNICAL CATEGORIES PREDICTIONS, which also includes my predicted nominations count for each movie!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory – Adapted Screenplay is incredibly weak this year, but this is a beautiful script by a 3 time nominee who is probably making his last film. It is his time.

2. Mudbound – Dee Rees, Virgil Williams – The screenplay was actually quite rich, and if the movie gets rewarded somewhere, it will probably be in this category.

3. Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin – The screenplay is vintage Sorkin. He has won once, but nominations are not always guaranteed. I put him third in case he gets another snub like he got for Steve Jobs.

4. The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber – The movie has its moments, and this writing duo has had some gems, but they are always ignored. This seems like the time for their first nomination.

5. All the Money in the World – David Scarpa – The movie has won the publicity vote, which could carry with it a couple nominations that aren’t necessarily deserved. This is a stab in the dark, but I can see it happening.

Others in contention

6. Wonder – Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne – The movie has had a nice box office, but this nomination would seem a little bizarre. Several people are predicting it, but my gut is that it gets the shaft.

7. The Beguiled – Sofia Coppola – The movie seems forgotten by most of the awards, but it was a Cannes darling, and Coppola is a past winner. This could surprise and pop in up a couple places.

8. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool – Matt Greenhalgh – The movie got a big time boost from the BAFTA nominations, but it will all depend on if any Americans actually saw it prior to voting.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig – If Gerwig is going to be rewarded, and I hope she is, it will be in this category.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh – It is probably the frontrunner on paper, but the backlash can take its toll. McDonagh will have to wait another year before his first win.

3. Get Out – Jordan Peele – Peele is a definite threat to take this award. It is the most creative and daring screenplay of the year. If he wins here, then it has a real shot at Best Picture, regardless if he gets a Director nom or not.

4. The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor – Del Toro’s film will be nominated basically everywhere it is eligible. This is an easy prediction.

5. The Post – Liz Hannah, Josh Singer – This fifth spot is really interesting. I suspect that The Post will play well with Academy voters and will sneak in over much more accomplished films and screenwriters.

Others in contention

6. The Big Sick – Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon – It would be sad if it gets snubbed, but it just seems like a foregone conclusion, especially after the Globes debacle.

7. I, Tonya – Steven Rogers – The WGA nomination was a boost, but the movie will be an acting contender at the Oscars only.

8. Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson – He is typically nominated every time in the writing categories, but the movie seems very understated. However, if he gets in, I will not be shocked at all. He was even nominated for Inherent Vice.

9. Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan – He is another consistent contender in these categories, but the movie lacks significant dialogue, which could play against its chances.

10. The Florida Project – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch – Sadly, the movie is not making as strong of a push at the awards circuits as it could have. If it shows up here, then we could be looking at a Best Picture nom as well.

11. Coco – Lee Unkrich, Jason Katz, Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina – Pixar is always in contention. Even though this is not being talked about by many, the acclaim is almost universal and can ride the Pixar wave all the way to the ceremony.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya – She has the showiest role, not to mention mom role, in the category. The veteran actor gets her first overdue nom/win.

2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird – She is probably the more deserving contender, but she is less of a film actress than Janney. She is an easy nominee, but unfortunately she’ll probably come up just short.

3. Hong Chau – Downsizing – She has all the right precursors, and while the movie is not well received at all, she gets in on her beautiful and heartfelt performance.

4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound – She also has a song in the running. If the Academy gets over their Netflix bias, then she should coast to a nomination here.

5. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick – While she has been overlooked by some, the SAG nod secures her nomination.

Others in contention

6. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water – Her part was so small that I feel like she gets left off, just barely. She doesn’t need a third nomination already.

7. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread – The BAFTA nomination and supposedly still lingering snub for Another Year has her as a dark horse in the category.

8. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip – If the Academy wants to throw in a wildcard, then this performance is it. They nominated a similar type role for Melissa McCarthy, and Haddish did win over the NYFCC in her memorable victory speech.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – He has taken the precursors thus far, and he has never been nominated before. He finally has his chance.

2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project – The veteran actor just unfortunately is stuck in a movie that is being largely forgotten otherwise. He is this year’s Sylvester Stallone in Creed.

3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water – His performance is not flashy, but he has good lines and is quirky enough to get swept in with the love for the film.

4. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World – Plummer was put in an impossible situation and won everyone over. His efforts and goodwill get him the film’s lone nomination.

5. Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name – The SAG snub was discouraging, but in the end, I find it hard to think that he won’t be mentioned on nomination morning. He was every bit as good as Chalamet.

Others in contention

6. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name – He has one great speech, plus he has two other Best Picture contenders. He could get the John C. Reilly nomination if the Academy loves the movie more than SAG.

7. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – The SAG nomination was a boost, but I think/hope that the voters will gravitate toward Rockwell before Harrelson.

8. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes – He is a dark horse. The SAG and Globe nominations are key, but the movie is forgotten otherwise.

9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound – He has been ignored unjustly throughout the process. If the Academy is ok with Netflix this year, then he could pop in out of nowhere.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – The past winner will take home her second trophy for her furious performance in the Best Picture contender.

2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird – Ronan is becoming a contender every year, and if there is an upset of McDormand, it will be from her. If she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.

3. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya – She has a complete transformation in the film, which is always looked on fondly by voters. She’ll have to wait for a win, but her first nomination is guaranteed.

4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water – This is another easy nomination in the Best Picture contender. Her second nomination will be less of a surprise, and if she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.

5. Meryl Streep – The Post – There are other worthy performances, but predicting she will get snubbed hasn’t worked since 2004.

Others in contention

6. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game – She is the true deserving winner, but I fear that the Academy will not love the movie as much as they should.

7. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul – She has the important precursors, and she is Dame Judi Dench, but don’t even know a single person who saw or wanted to see this movie. It gets left off in every category.

8. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes – It might be her best performance, but the movie does kinda suck, and it underperformed at the box office and in the precursors. And she just won, so a snub here is understandable.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour – With the wins so far, unless he gets beat at SAG, he will finally pick up his first trophy for his transformation into Winston Churchill.

2. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name – He gave the best performance by anyone in 2017, but the Academy will see it as more of a breakout role than anything else. I have him winning next year in my 2019 PREDICTIONS.

3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread – The nomination is looking more and more likely, and as more people see the film, perhaps they will send him a parting gift and record-tying 4^th win.

4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out – He has hit every precursor; he is getting nominated. But there’s no chance he can win.

5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. – The movie has been forgotten and was sort of a flop. But there are probably still a lot of voters who feel bad for not giving him the win last year. He takes the fifth spot.

Others in contention

6. James Franco – The Disaster Artist – The sexual harassment allegations are looming, and despite how awesome he was and having won at the Globes and Critics Choice, I fear an unjust snub here.

7. Tom Hanks – The Post – He hasn’t been nominated in forever. If he shows up here, then we have to look at The Post as a real BP contender.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Harry Dean Stanton - Lucky

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water – He has won the big ones so far, and his movie is looking at a record amount of nominations if things go right. It would be hard to deny him an award here.

2. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – His movie is in the driver’s seat, and it is his finest work yet. But he is up against a juggernaut.

3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird – The DGA nomination secured this nomination. It would be so cool if she somehow wins the thing.

4. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk – Nolan finally has a movie that appeals to all voters, and the vast amount of technical nominations should be enough for him to get his first nom.

5. Steven Spielberg – The Post – He always defies the odds and gets nominated whether he deserves it or not. He has lost his touch…too bad the Academy can’t see that.

Others in contention

6. Jordan Peele – Get Out – Unfortunately, that leaves off Peele, which would likely be detrimental to the film’s Best Picture chances. I hope I’m wrong on this.

7. Dee Rees – Mudbound – My preseason pick to win the category is looking less likely, but if the Academy can get over the streaming thing, then her searing drama could lift her to a nomination.

8. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name – This would be the equivalent to Lenny Abrahamson in 2015 getting in, which no one is really expecting, but the Academy might really take to the film and carry him in with the love.

9. Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World – How he handled the Kevin Spacey ordeal might be an overwhelming factor that could boost him into the conversation, much like it was at the Globes. It is hard to predict that, but I wouldn’t doubt it.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 7 will get nominated)

1. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) – It is good enough, and no one dislikes it. In the current era and voting structure of the Academy, that is all that is required to win.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) – It has the backlash, which makes it just divisive enough to take away its award that it so richly deserves.

3. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro) – It will be nominated everywhere, but that is not enough to take this award home. It is this year’s Benjamin Button.

4. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) – The movie will be put on this list for its craftsmanship more than anything else, which will play well with the old Oscar voters.

5. Get Out (Jordan Peele) – Everything points to this movie being nominated, and because there really isn’t anyone who will have it lower than maybe 3 or 4 on their ballot, I would watch out for a shocker win here.

6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) – The movie is old fashioned and will be a hit with the older voters. Spielberg is always in contention, even for his garbage like Bridge of Spies and War Horse.

7. Mudbound (Dee Rees) – Netflix finally gets its first nomination. The PGA snub was discouraging, but it overcomes it.

8. The Big Sick (Michael Showalter) – I fear that the film will just not have enough 1^st place votes to get in. Everyone likes it, but no one has it #1. The SAG ensemble nomination is interesting, however…

9. The Florida Project (Sean Baker) – The movie has its fans, but A24 did not do a great campaign, and not enough voters saw it.

10. Call Me by Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) – It should be up there, but the subject matter and lack of real star power will bring it down a notch and leave it just on the outside.

Others in contention

11. I, Tonya (Craig Gillespie) – The film has been a hit, and the PGA nomination was a legitimate boost. It could surprise if there are 8 or 9 nominees.

12. Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin) – The PGA put it on their list, which was encouraging. It is a great film, but even I admit that a Best Picture nomination would be a little bizarre.

13. Wonder Woman (Patty Jenkins) – There seems to always be a blockbuster movie in the PGA lineup that has no chance (The Hangover, Bridesmaids, etc.), but this feels different. Keep an eye out here…

That’s all for the major categories! What are your predictions? Comment below! Also, check out my ARTS AND TECHS PREDICTIONS, which also features my predicted nominations count for each film mentioned!