46 Random Facts about the Giants and the Patriots:
1. The Giants and Patriots are a combined 6-4 in Super Bowls. In spite of this, if you add up the composite box scores from each of those Super Bowls, the Patriots have been outscored in every quarter and the Giants only outscored opponents in one (the third quarter).
2. Since 2001, every Super Bowl team from the AFC has played New England over the course of the regular season. Well, except 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2007 when the Patriots were the AFC representative.
3. Since 2006, every Super Bowl team from the NFC has played New England over the course of the regular season.
4. In his 21 playoff games as a starter, Tom Brady has a quarterback rating of 87.6
5. In his 10 playoff games as a starter, Eli Manning has a quarterback rating of 87.5.
6. The Patriots have not played a single game indoors all season. The Giants most recent defeat on the road was their last indoor game, when they lost to the Saints 49-24 in Week 12. It was their biggest margin of defeat for the season.
7. The Patriots played only one road game against a team with a record above .500 (Pittsburgh). The combined record of their road opponents was 61-67 (.477).
8. The Giants played only one road game against a team with a record below .500 (Washington). In fact, including their two road playoff games, the combined record of teams they played on the road was 104-56 (.650).
9. The Giants will be the Patriots ninth road opponent with 9 or fewer wins.
10. The Patriots will be the Giants’ sixth road opponent with 13+ wins.
11. If the Giants win, they will be only the second Super Bowl champ to have a record of .500 or lower at home during the regular season. The first team? The 2007 Giants.
12. In his four games against the Giants, Tom Brady has thrown 5 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and has a quarterback rating of 83.8.
13. In his three games against the Patriots, Eli Manning has thrown 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and has a quarterback rating of 93.1.
14. The Patriots scored 30 or more points in all but five games this season. In those games they are 12-1.
15. The Giants have scored 29 or under points in all but five games this season. In those games, they are 8-6.
16. Against their regular season opponents, the Patriots allowed a combined quarterback rating of 86.1.
17. Against their regular season opponents, the Giants allowed a combined quarterback rating of 86.1.
18. When Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin were both coaches on the Giants, New York played the Patriots one time: Week 17 of 1990, when the Giants beat the Patriots by three, 13-10.
19. When Bill Belichick coached the Browns and Tom Coughlin coached the Jaguars, the two teams played once: Week 17 of 1995, when Coughlin’s Jaguars beat Belichick’s Patriots by three, 24-21.
20. The next season, the Patriots beat the Giants 23-22 Week 17 of 1996. By this time, Belichick was an assistant head coach for New England, and just a few weeks later, the Patriots beat Coughlin’s Jaguars 20-6 in the AFC Championship game.
21. The first time Tom Brady played Eli Manning, the teams played Week 17 of 2007, when the Patriots beat the Giants by three, 38-35.
22. In the last four years, Belichick’s former team, the Cleveland Browns, have only two victories of 20 points or more: October 13, 2008, when they beat the Giants 35-14, and November 7, 2010, when they beat the Patriots 34-14.
23. Both teams must have understandably felt pretty bad following those defeats: The Giants won their next 7 games and the Patriots won their next 8.
24. All right, back to more immediately relevant facts. The Giants committed 24 turnovers this season. The Patriots have committed 27 turnovers over the last two seasons (it may be worth remembering, however, that this postseason, the Giants have turned the ball over one time in three games, while the Patriots have turned the ball over five times in two games).
25. Similarly, Eli Manning threw 16 interceptions in 2011. Tom Brady has thrown 16 interceptions over the past two seasons. Along those same lines, Eli Manning, who in his eighth season, has thrown 129 interceptions in the regular season, including five seasons with 16 or more. Brady, in his 12th season, has thrown just 155 interceptions, never having thrown more than 14 in a single season.
26. There have been only 13 times in NFL history where a quarterback has completed a 99-yard pass. Two of them happened this year: Week 1, when Tom Brady threw a 99-yard TD pass to Wes Welker, and Week 16, when Eli Manning threw a 99-yard TD pass to Victor Cruz.
27. Wes Welker, who was undrafted, had 1,569 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns this season. Victor Cruz, who was undrafted, had 1,536 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns this season.
28. Maybe you’ve heard this stat, but it needs to be repeated: BenJarvis Green-Ellis has never fumbled. Not in his professional career or his college career. Unbelievable.
29. In 2010, each team won one more regular season game (14 and 10, respectively) than they did this year in 2011 (13 and 9). Despite this, last season saw the Patriots lose their only playoff game while the Giants missed the playoffs altogether.
30. The Giants surrendered 400 points this season. Only four other teams have ever made the playoffs giving up 400 points. The Giants had nine games where they gave up 21 or more points.
31. The 1986 Giants and 1990 Giants (which each took home New York’s first two Lombardi Trophies) gave up a combined 447 points. Together, they had only three games where they gave up 21 or more points.
32. The Patriots surrendered 6,577 yards this season, third-worst all time. They had nine games where they gave up 400 or more yards.
33. The 2001 Patriots and 2003 Patriots (which each took home New England’s first two Lombardi Trophies) had a combined total of five games where they gave up 400 or more yards.
34. Before the season, the most yards given up by a Super Bowl defense was the 2009 Saints, who gave up 5,724 yards. No team had ever made the Super Bowl with a negative point differential. When the Patriots and Giants met in Super Bowl 42 four years ago, both teams surrendered under 5,000 yards on defense; this season, both have given up over 6,000.
35. Brady and Manning combined for 10,168 passing yards this season. The previous record to dueling Super Bowl quarterbacks was in 2009, when Drew Brees and Peyton Manning combined for 8,888 passing yards. Leading up to Super Bowl 1, Bart Starr and Len Dawson combined for 4,784 yards. Both Brady and Manning individually had more yards in 2011.
36. The Patriots have never lost a Super Bowl where they allowed a 300-yard passer (3-0). They’ve never won a Super Bowl where they’ve held the opposing quarterback to under 300 yards (0-3).
37. The three quarterbacks the Giants have beat in Super Bowls? John Elway (Hall of Famer), Jim Kelly (Hall of Famer), and Tom Brady (future Hall of Famer). The one quarterback who defeated the Giants in a Super Bowl? Trent Dilfer.
38. New England hasn’t won a game in Indianapolis since 2007, and the Giants haven’t won there since 2002. When Belichick and Coughlin were coaches on the Giants, New York beat the Colts 24-7 in Indianapolis on Week 9 of 1990.
39. Both Stephen Gostkowski and Lawrence Tynes were perfect in extra points this season. They each missed a total of five field goals, and had longs of 50. They attended college at Memphis and Troy, respectively, which are both names of fabled cities from the ancient Near East.
40. Tom Coughlin and David Tyree both went to college at Syracuse, which is also a fabled city from ancient civilization.
41. In Week 15 of 2007, the Giants suffered an embarrassing home loss to the Redskins, 23-10. They played excellent the rest of the season, with their only remaining loss coming against the Patriots.
42. In Week 15 of 2011, the Giants suffered an embarrassing home loss to the Redskins, 22-10. They’ve played excellent the rest of the season, with their only remaining loss coming against the Patriots (don’t worry, I’ll cross off those last nine words if they win the Super Bowl).
43. Tom Coughlin is the oldest head coach in the NFL, at 65 years old. Bill Belichick is the third-oldest active coach, at 59.
44. Including the Super Bowl, Tom Brady has started in more playoff games (22) than any active player in any position.
45. Super Bowl 46 will be Eli Manning’s 11th playoff game as a starter. In his 11th playoff game as a starter, Tom Brady suffered his first playoff loss, to the Denver Broncos in 2005.
46. Eli Manning will be 31 years, 33 days when he plays in Super Bowl 46. When Tom Brady was 31 years, 35 days old, he faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 of 2008. In the first quarter, Brady injured his left knee and was lost for the season.
OK, so maybe that last statistic was a bit of a downer, and honestly, I don’t want Eli to get injured. Seriously, with all the buildup, suspense, and anticipation, Eli busts his knee in the first quarter and leaves the game? How horrible would that be? No one in their right minds – Giants fan or not – wants to hear the words, “And off the bench hoping to lead the Giants to a Super Bowl victory is David Carr . . .”
The bottom line is we want a good game, and we’ll very likely get one. The Patriots don’t get blown out, and the Giants don’t blow out teams not named the Atlanta Falcons. On the other side, I don’t think there’s any way that Patriots secondary makes a Manning aerial attack irrelevant even with a large lead. As long as Eli’s not facing the Redskins or Seahawks, the Giants will always be in the game.
I’m going to try to be brief with my prediction because (a) I could probably write an 8,000 page book on this game alone, (b) compiling that list of 46 facts took way too much time out of my life, and (c) if you look carefully at the list, you may actually see some key reasons for my prediction (actually, not really). I’ll also try to steer clear of excessive statistics because (cue the cliché police) with a game like this, you have to throw out all statistics.
But you really do. Besides the known facts that the game will be close, the NFC will win the coin toss (for the 15th straight time), and Chris Collinsworth will exclaim the words “WHHHOAAA did you see that?” at least seven times, there are no certainties about Super Bowl 46. It may be the first overtime Super Bowl; it may be the first time since the 80s that football fans in Indianapolis are driven to suicide. What’s worse – your franchise quarterback’s precocious younger brother winning more Super Bowls than your QB, or your team’s mortal enemy over the past decade celebrating its fourth title on your home turf?
There’s been a lot of discussion this week about why the Patriots are favored. Their pass defense is still abysmal, Brady was outplayed by Joe Flacco in Foxboro, Rob Gronkowski’s condition is unknown, and they lost to the G-Men in the regular season. As for New York, you could make the argument that their past two playoff games (at Green Bay and at San Francisco) were tougher matchups than this one. People are still too focused on the difference between 13-3 and 9-7; but if you look at numbers 7 and 8 on my list above, you’ll see that it’s a more complex debate. If these two teams are both 11-5 or 12-4 (and like I said, you have to throw out all stats going into this game), the Giants are 3½ point favorites.
There are basically three factors that will determine the game: (1) If Rob Gronkowski is healthy and plays well, (2) Which pass rush can get to the quarterback more, and (3) Which defense can force more turnovers. Now, I don’t see Gronkowski being at 100 percent; you don’t hobble around in a cast the week before the Super Bowl and play at a high level. The Pats lose a ton without Gronkowski. Advantage Giants. It’s hard to predict the second factor, but I think both defensive lines will make an impact. The Giants have a terrific formula for applying pressure with JPP, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck; but it is hard to ignore a defense which has forced eight sacks in the last two games. Eli was sacked six times in the San Francisco game. Without Gronkowski as a viable target for Brady when he’s under pressure, the Patriots’ previous slight advantage with their monster offensive line disappears and the teams are even.
So it comes down to turnovers, like in so many of the past few Super Bowls. I will throw out one interesting stat: In four of the last five Super Bowls, the winning team has scored a defensive touchdown. Now the Patriots’ secondary may be lousy, but let’s not forget that they forced 23 interceptions during the regular season. The Giants’ secondary has only forced one interception in the postseason. Look at numbers 24, 25, and 28 on my list. New England’s defense makes enough big plays to take care of games late. New York’s piss-poor ability to run the ball (not improving in the playoffs) will cost them.
The biggest factor, though, is Brady and his legacy. If they lose this game, his image is forever tarnished. At this point, how do you not call Brady the greatest QB of all time? Three Super Bowl rings, basically no receivers in his first seven seasons, most TDs for a single season, most consecutive attempts without an interception, beautiful model girlfriends, blah blah blah. You’ve heard it all. But if they lose to the Giants, you can’t say that Brady is the greatest ever – Eli was always able to outplay him in Super Bowls. The best historical pop culture corollary is Tom Hanks. Here’s a guy that wins consecutive Best Actor Oscars in 1993 and 1994, and then gives tremendous performances in Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, The Green Mile, and Cast Away . . . and loses each time. Now in 2012, people aren’t going to readily list Tom Hanks when they say the greatest actors ever. They may say De Niro, Pacino, Hoffman, Brando, or Ryan Gosling, but Hanks is just too lightweight or comic maybe. But in his heaviest, deepest roles at the top of his game, he never won the big one – maybe not so much because his performances weren’t worthy, but because he already won two Oscars. Some of those losses are inexplicable (how does he lose to Roberto Benigni in ’98?) but they do quite a bit in diminishing his unstoppable 1990s aura. Two Oscars made Hanks great, but three would have made him immortal.
Will Brady allow this to happen? We’ve seen him still crying about being drafted in the 6th round. You saw the anger in his eyes against the Broncos a few weeks ago (you don’t think he’ll be angry after that 0 TD, 2 interception performance against the Ravens?) The games Brady has blown weren’t the games where we didn’t believe he could win, but the games everyone was overconfident about the Patriots. Brady’s best games? 2001 in the Super Bowl against St. Louis (no way they beat the Rams); 2004 in the AFC Championship (no way they beat the Stealers); 2006 in the AFC Divisional Round (no way they beat the Chargers; Brady’s impact doesn’t show up in the stats). The facts stack up showing that the Patriots will have serious problems against this team. Brady knows the stakes. If they win, he’s the best quarterback of all time; if they lose, he can never be seriously considered in the running ever again. Just like in 2007, the Patriots are up against history, and have more to lose if they blow it; but this time, they have a chip on their shoulder, and more to prove.
Prediction: New England 31, New York 27 (Do I seriously believe the Patriots are better than the Giants? I’m still not sure. But it is easier picking against the Giants than against Tom Brady. And I’ll never be able to live with myself if I honestly go against my team in the championship.)
(Side note: Here are my five favorite statistics from my list in ascending order: 22, 16 and 17, 36, 37, and 28. I mean, how has this guy never fumbled? Is this remotely possible? And he’s on the same team as the guy who set the record for pass attempts without an interception? As far as I’m concerned, I’ll take no fumbling over the ability to run for 50 yards on any given play.)
Others receiving votes: Ben Foster, Colin Farrell, John Cusack, Mia Farrow, Steve Martin
10. Tony Leung
I felt like I should include at least one international actor on this list, so I went wit
Most deserved to be nominated for: In the Mood for Love
Other notable snubs: Lust, Caution, 2046, Infernal Affairs, Hero, Happy Together, Ashes of Time, Chungking Express
Promising upcoming title: The Grandmasters (2012). Directed by Wong Kar Wai (Chungking Express), about the martial arts master who trained Bruce Lee. Co-starring Zizi Zhang.
9. Robin Wright
Robin Wright is one of the most respected supporting character actresses in the busi
Most deserved to be nominated for: Forrest Gump
Other notable snubs: The Conspirator, The Private Lives of Pippa Lee, Sorry, Haters, Nine Lives, A Home at the End of the World, She’s So Lovely
Promising upcoming title: The Congress (2013). Directed by Ari Folman (Waltz with Bashir), a sci-fi drama about an aging, out-of-work actress. Co-starring Paul Giamatti.
8. Sam Rockwell
Sam Rockwell is one of those actors that it is hard to understand why he has no
Most deserved to be nominated for: Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Other notable snubs: Conviction, Moon, Choke, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Snow Angels, Matchstick Men, The Green Mile, Lawn Dogs
Promising upcoming title: Seven Psychopaths (2012). Directed by Martin McDonagh (In Bruges), about a screenwriter who gets caught up in a kidnapping plot. Co-starring Colin Farrell.
7. Jim Carrey
Isn’t it hard to believe that Jim Carrey never got an Oscar nomination? H
Most deserved to be nominated for: The Truman Show
Other notable snubs: I Love You Phillip Morris, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, The Majestic, Man on the Moon
Promising upcoming title: The Incredible Burt Wonderstone (2013). Directed by Don Scardino (30 Rock), about a jaded magician trying to remain relevant when a new popular magician bursts onto the scene. Co-starring Steve Carell.
6. Brian Cox
Brian Cox is an actor who is just always around successful movies. He is a fantastic supporting 
Most deserved to be nominated for: 25th Hour
Other notable snubs: The Good Heart, The Escapist, Zodiac, Troy, L.I.E.,
Promising upcoming title: Blood (2013). Directed by Nick Murphy (The Awakening), about two cop brothers and their struggle to break out of the shadow of their former police chief father. Co-starring Paul Bettany.
5. Guy Pearce
Guy Pearce is one of the most talented actors around. He is in some of the mos
t prolific and celebrated movies of the late 90s-early 00s. He is about as versatile of a performer as I have ever seen on screen, rivaled only by the chameleon himself Gary Oldman for being the most unrecognizable and underrated character actor in the business. He gets lost in every role that he takes, and it is just insane that he was not nominated for any of the astonishing work in his career.
Most deserved to be nominated for: The Proposition
Other notable snubs: The King’s Speech, Animal Kingdom, Factory Girl, The Count of Monte Cristo, Memento, L.A. Confidential
Promising upcoming title: Wettest County (2012). Directed by John Hillcoat (The Road), about a Depression-era bootlegging gang. Co-starring Tom Hardy.
4. Kevin Bacon
Kevin Bacon has perhaps one of the most decorated filmographies of his generation, and yet he is
never singled out in his cast. Even in the greatest of ensembles, he is always among the best but forgotten. Even in the most Oscar-friendly material, his co-stars get all of the love. I am not sure why that is, but I cannot always agree with it. He brings a great deal of humanity to his characters, and it is inexcusable that he has never gotten an Oscar nom (only one Globe nom too). He needs to get nominated soon. After nearly sweeping the TV awards for his movie Taking Chance a couple years ago, it appears that the industry has finally warmed up to him. Now he just needs that Oscar.
Most deserved to be nominated for: The Woodsman
Other notable snubs: Mystic River, Digging to China, Sleepers, Apollo 13, Murder in the First, The River Wild, A Few Good Men, Diner
Promising upcoming title: Jayne Mansfield’s Car (2012). Directed by Billy Bob Thornton (Sling Blade), about culture clash between two families in the 1960s. Co-starring Robert Duvall.
3. Donald Sutherland
Donald Sutherland is going to be the only leg of the tripod (along with Michael Caine, Christopher Plummer) to not be 
Most deserved to be nominated for: Ordinary People
Other notable snubs: Aurora Borealis, Pride and Prejudice, Without Limits, JFK, Threshold, Don’t Look Now, Klute, MASH
Promising upcoming title: none
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh
I could never understand how such a critical darling like Jennifer Jason Leig
h could never break through to getting any serious awards attention. She is amazing in almost every movie appears in. In the early to mid 90s, she had a run where each one of her performances was good enough to be nominated or win Oscars. She is one of the most authentic actors out there, and now she just does not work enough. In my books, she should have won two Oscars with at least 3 more nominations. I am astounded that she has never gotten at least invited to the ceremony.
Most deserved to be nominated for: Mrs. Parker and the Vicious Circle
Other notable snubs: Margot at the Wedding, The Machinist, The Anniversary Party, Georgia, Dolores Claiborne, The Hudsucker Proxy, Short Cuts, Single White Female, Miami Blues, Last Exit to Brooklyn, Fast Times at Ridgemont High
Promising upcoming title: none
1. Steve Buscemi
Steve Buscemi is one of the best actors in the world. He has playe
Most deserved to be nominated for: Ghost World
Other notable snubs: The Messenger, Interview, Delirious, Paris, je Taime, The Grey Zone, Trees Lounge, Fargo, Living in Oblivion, Reservoir Dogs, Mystery Train
Promising upcoming title: On the Road (2012). Directed by Walter Salles (The Motorcycle Diaries), based on the Jack Kerouac book about Beat generation writers searching for “It”. Co-starring Sam Riley.
So, what do you think? I know that I must have missed someone. I went through about 50 possibilities to narrow it down to these 10. Who would be on your list? A Golden Globe darling like Cameron Diaz or Scarlett Johansson? An indie star like Parker Posey or James Spader? A longtime veteran like Christopher Lee or Christopher Lloyd? A relatively young actor like Evan Rachel Wood or Emile Hirsch? A largely comedic actor like Will Ferrell or Steve Carell? A standout Coen brothers collaborator like John Turturro or John Goodman? A blockbuster actor with occasional dramatic brilliance like Bruce Willis or Val Kilmer? A rising star like Tom Hardy or Michael Fassbender? A foreign star like Gong Li or Chow Yun-Fat? A wrongfully typecast character actor like Jeff Daniels or Daniel Stern? Each and every one of these actors was on my longlist of contenders. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Predicted: 8 for 9
Reactions: I suspected that only 7 would get nominated, but the only one I didn’t have in my top 9 was Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (I had Dragon Tattoo). I am slightly upset that Fincher’s film did not make the cut, especially with 9 getting nominated. However, I am much more excited that Bridesmaids did not make it (even though that would have made Apatow an Oscar nominee) and that The Tree of Life got in, basically telling the guilds that they are not the answer to predicting the Oscars. Not a bad group, though. Brad Pitt gets his double nod, but not necessarily the one we were hoping for. Seeing how the rest of the nominees stacked up implies that there could be a legitimate threat or two for The Artist. Last year, 9 of the 10 nominees had screenplay nominations, but this year only 5 of the 9 do. Not sure what that means, but it is an interesting development. Having 9 nominees all having at least 5% of the vote also implies that the votes are a lot more spread out than I would have originally thought. I always figured when a movie sweeps the ceremony that they get like 40% of the vote or something, but the math just simply does not support that, at least not this year. I find this new rule rather interesting, actually. Oh, and never underestimate Stephen Daldry. Two straight films of his that I have said that about, and I still do it. Genius.
Preliminary prediction: The Artist
Best Director
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Martin Scorsese – Hugo
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Fincher in for Malick. I love this. I hate that Fincher is not going to win an Oscar for another worthy film, but Terrence Malick got nominated. I am stoked that they didn’t make it Spielberg or Daldry. I have a feeling that this may be one of those Director-Picture split years that has not happened since 2005.
Preliminary Prediction: Terrence Malick
Best Actor
Demian Bichir – A Better Life
George Clooney – The Descendants
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had DiCaprio and Fassbender in for Bichir and Oldman. Gary Oldman, Oscar nominee. We can finally say it! Pretty great group, other than that random guy in that horrible movie by the director of the second Twilight Movie. I don’t get that. Clooney may not be as much of a favorite as we suspected with Woodley missing out on Supporting Actress. Pitt and Oldman could pull a shocker. Let’s hope that happens.
Preliminary Prediction: George Clooney
Best Actress
Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis – The Help
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: There was no real question here as to what the nominations would look like. The guys on E! are stupid for saying that no one thought Mara would get nominated. Tilda Swinton is once again on the outside. Not enough people saw her movie, I guess. Streep’s film got an unexpected second nomination, so at least she has some support from somewhere other than the actors branch. Her third win finally?
Preliminary Prediction: Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Albert Brooks in for Max von Sydow. How is that only von Sydow’s second nomination? Anyway, Jonah Hill getting nominated is amazing. The rest are fairly predictable overdue veteran actors, but I just can’t believe that one isn’t Brooks. When was the last time that the unanimous critic favorite in an acting category failed to get even a nomination? I guess Drive is just too cool for the Academy. Same old story…
Preliminary Prediction: Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Shailene Woodley in for McCarthy. This was just wishful thinking that the Academy would ignore Bridesmaids. Nothing really to say here. I feel bad for Woodley. She deserved to get invited.
Preliminary Prediction: Octavia Spencer
Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Win Win and Young Adult in for Bridesmaids and Margin Call. Stupid Bridesmaids, but Margin Call!!! This is amazing. This reminds me of when 2009’s best film The Messenger was nominated in this category after no precursors. This is awesome. However, with Woody Allen getting his director nod, his win here is almost assured. I have no problem with that.
Preliminary Prediction: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had The Help in for Tinker Tailor. This was a real surprise, showing that The Help does not have all of the support that we had originally thought. Clooney gets his double nod. Aaron Sorkin gets in two years in a row. Steven Zaillian goes 1 for 2. I like this group.
Preliminary Prediction: The Descendants
Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: I completely nailed this! Other than Drive not getting in, I cannot complain about any of these nominees.
Preliminary Prediction: War Horse
Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Anonymous in for Midnight in Paris. This just shows that Paris has a fair amount of support. Can Woody make a serious run at Best Picture?
Preliminary Prediction: Hugo
Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had The Help and My Week with Marilyn in for Anonymous and Jane Eyre. The latter certainly deserved its nomination (and the win), but I am so mad that I chose the wrong category for Anonymous! I knew it would show up somewhere…
Preliminary Prediction: W.E.
Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had The Tree of Life and The Artist in for Transformers and Moneyball. This is normally a spot for the Best Picture winners. Each BP winner was nominated here since 2006. Could this be a telling factor in the race?
Preliminary Prediction: War Horse
Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Tinker Tailor in for The Descendants. It seems that the Academy liked The Descendants more than Sideways even with it getting the crucial editing nod. I am shocked that Tinker Tailor didn’t get in here with the support it got elsewhere. Oh well. I hope Dragon Tattoo or Moneyball takes this.
Preliminary Prediction: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: Yeah, I had Tintin, Super 8, and Planet of the Apes instead of Drive, Dragon Tattoo, and Hugo. This is a big spot for Hugo. It basically got every possible Artistic/Technical nomination. Drive at least got one nomination in one of its least deserving spots. Whatever, Oscar…
Preliminary Prediction: War Horse
Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Tree of Life and X-Men in for Real Steel and Transformers. Yep, that is three noms for the Michael Bay disaster. Nice.
Preliminary Prediction: Harry Potter
Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
Predicted: 1 for 3
Reactions: I had The Artist and Anonymous in for Iron Lady and Harry Potter. Well, I went 0 for 3 last year, so this is something.
Preliminary Prediction: Albert Nobbs
Song
“Man or Muppet” – The Muppets
“Real in Rio” – Rio
Predicted: 0 for 2
Reactions: I predicted 5 nominees, including songs from The Help, Albert Nobbs, We Bought a Zoo, Cars 2, and the wrong song from The Muppets. I love these two songs, though. They are both the best in their films, which are both stocked full with great original songs. Well done, but the Academy needs to fix the rules here. Only nominating two is pretty dumb.
Preliminary Prediction:The Muppets
Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Dragon Tattoo in for Tinker Tailor. Double nom for John Williams? What else is new. Shame that Dragon Tattoo and Drive got snubbed here.
Preliminary Prediction: The Artist
Documentary
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Project Nim and We Were Here in for Hell and Back Again and Pina. Just took a stab, really. They always snub the best doc, and this year, the best ones were supposedly Project Nim and George Harrison: Living in a Material World. Well done, Academy. Your new rules still don’t work.
Preliminary Prediction: Undefeated
Foreign Language Film
Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Black Bread and Where Do We Go Now? in for Bullhead and Footnote. Haven’t seen any of these, but I always have a random gut feeling that there will be an upset, and I am right almost every year. Do not be fooled just because A Separation got a screenplay nod that it is a lock in this category. Ask Guillermo Del Toro if that is the case. One of the movies is about Nazis, and we know how Oscar feels about those movies. Upset!
Preliminary Prediction: In Darkness
Animated Feature
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I had Tintin (obviously), Arthur Christmas, and Cars 2 in for A Cat in Paris (what?), Kung Fu Panda 2, and Puss in Boots. Well, I got one of the no name films right. What happened to Tintin and the surefire Spielberg nomination? I love that Kung Fu Panda got the nod, though. Such a cool movie. Poor Winnie the Pooh. Oh well. The director of Pirates of the Caribbean is going to be an Oscar winner. Nice.
Preliminary Prediction: Rango
Overall predictions: 72/104; 69.23% (67.96% in 2011)
Without the last 5 categories: 60/79; 75.95% (70.37% in 2011)
On the Big 8 categories: 35/44; 79.55% (84.44% in 2011)
So, I did better predicting everything but the main categories this year, which is a change of pace. The arts and techs were a tad easier since the Best Picture contenders are almost all visual spectacles. Not bad. I am pretty proud about how this turned out.
10 coolest first-time nominees (last year had so many better options):
1. Gary Oldman
2. Jonah Hill
3. Rooney Mara
4. Jessica Chastain
5. Kristen Wiig (even though I hate her movie)
6. JC Chandor
7. Berenice Bejo
8. Chris Columbus
9. Jean Dujardin
10. Gore Verbinski
10 worst snubs:
1. Drive in all categories (especially Best Editing, Best Original Score, and Best Supporting Actor)
2. Michael Shannon for Best Actor
3. Michael Fassbender for Best Actor
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo for Best Original Score and Best Director
5. Brad Pitt for Best Supporting Actor
6. Super 8 for Best Sound Editing
7. Winnie the Pooh for Best Animated Feature
8. Carey Mulligan for Best Supporting Actress (for Shame and Drive)
9. Carnage for Best Adapted Screenplay
10. Berenice Bejo for Best Actress
If there were five nominees for Best Picture, they probably would have been The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. If there were 10, it probably would have added in Bridesmaids. Maybe Dragon Tattoo with all its guild and technical category support. Seeing a concrete number would have been nice. Anyway, it was a nominations morning filled with excitement, both good and bad. Most of the important nominations I was hoping for (Jonah Hill, Rooney Mara, Terrence Malick) were taken care of. Dragon Tattoo missing out on almost everything is discouraging, but it is all made up for with Margin Call getting a nomination. Seriously, it is the best original screenplay since 2009. I can’t wait to see what the next month brings to the race. Maybe the SAGs will give us a surprise. Maybe the DGA will give the award to someone other than Hazanavicius, since the category is filled with amazing, proven directors. Maybe the BAFTAs will help someone’s cause in the acting categories (do not forget that they almost single-handedly anointed Tilda Swinton and Marion Cotillard as winners in the same year). We shall see. I love this time of year.
Stay tuned for our Fourth Annual Oscar Challenge. How do you think the Academy did this year? Who are you predicting to win? Let us know in the comments.
