5th Annual Oscar Challenge - 2013

It's that time of year again!!!  The Oscar nominations came out this last week and it is time to pick the winners in our 5th annual Oscar Challenge.  Follow the link below to find the Oscar Challenge ballot.  You must fill out all 3 parts of the ballot to be eligible.  Let's see if you can beat the experts.

AlmostSideways Oscar Challenge

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round

Here’s what we learned from last weekend’s first round of NFL playoffs:

1.      The playoffs are considerably less fun without: Tim Tebow, Rex Ryan, Rex Ryan’s wife’s feet, Ryan Clark’s genetic condition in high altitudes, Mike Tomlin/Omar Epps/Ike Turner, Scott Skiles/JasonStatham/Don Rickles, lookalikes in general, A.J. McCaron’s hot girlfriend, 1-point safeties, the words “Terrell Owens” and “danger” and “diving board.”

2.      No team last week scored more than 24 points or less than 9 points.  And yet somehow we ended up with four boring-ass games. 

3.      Grady Little and Pedro Martinez should never, ever be significant parts of professional sports teams in Washington, D.C.

4.      Fortunately for the Beltway, John Wall is safe from getting injured as a result of excessivephysical activity.  Maybe too many Honey Nut Cheerios?

5.      Seattle is now 2-0 in bullshit good luck games this year and 10-5 in all other games.

6.       “Thanks, Papa!”

OK, I’ll try my best to go easy on the Seahawks in this week’s column (12^th Man fans

may even be pleasantly surprised by my pick).  The plus side is that whenever I try to ease my hatred of Seattle, I tell myself two things: They haven’t won a Super Bowl, and they haven’t won a road playoff game since the Reagan administration.  Now that one of those statements is no longer true (and the other may not be around too much longer), I’m just a little more justified in hating them.  Go Thunder!

            Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9)

            Saturday, January 12, 4:30pm EST, CBS

            Oh boy.  This Ravens team is starting to look very ’08-Cardinals-’10-Packers-’11-Giants-like.  After looking rather pitiful in four of their final five regular season games, Baltimore played an outstanding game last week.  They gained 441 yards of offense, held the Colts out of the end zone, and disrupted the line of scrimmage.  Was it a fluke?  Was it because there was no way Ray Lewis was going to lose in his final home game?  Was it because old-time Baltimore fans still hold long-standing resentment against the Colts?  Or was it because, more simply, a veteran playoff team shut down a group of playoff newbies like they should have on paper? 

Here’s another surprising thing to take from last Sunday’s game: Joe Flacco played really

well.  Really well, in fact.  He only completed 52 percent of his passes, but averaged 23.5 yards per completion, threw two touchdowns and no interceptions, and was only sacked once.  He had a quarterback rating of 125.6 (his best since Week 1 of 2012) and a QBR of 89.5. On last Sunday, his composure and sudden lack of stupid plays seemed like less an anomaly, and more of a norm (what was an anomaly Sunday was Anquan Boldin, who has not had over 145 receiving yards in a game since 2008).

            So OK.  The Ravens looked great against a team that last week I had no problem coming with ten reasons why they shouldn’t have won the game (and yet, improbably, I still picked the Colts.  At least you can’t call it “pulling a Flacco.”)  But why should we believe Baltimore can beat a team they lost to by 17 points at home 24 days ago?  Yes, the Ravens are now 5-0 in the Harbaugh era in their first playoff matchup . . . but only 1-3 in their next game. 

            Well, in the words of Bill Clinton at this year’s DNC, let’s look at the facts: The Broncos seemed pretty dang good this year.  They finished in the top five in: Offense (points and yards), defense (points and yards), passing (yards for and yards against), rush defense, and sacks (performed and surrendered).  Peyton Manning had his best statistical season since his famous 2004 season.  The Broncos scored 30+ points in 11 games and allowed 24 points or under in 13 games.  In fact, in those games the Broncos were 13-0.  And ever since trailing 24-0 at San Diego on that fateful Monday night game on October 15, the Broncos have outscored opponents 346-151.

            But beneath those sensational numbers lie a few other telling but must less widely-discussed statistics.   Of all the remaining playoff teams, Denver had the easiest schedule.  They only beat two playoff teams all season, and lost to the Falcons, Texans, and Patriots.  The Ravens will only be the second team with a winning record the Broncos will face at home all year, and the first since September.  On the season, Denver’s turnover ratio was -1 (in their twelve victories after their bye week, that ratio was only +2).  No other remaining playoff team has a ratio of under +6.  And in their last six games of the year, the Broncos as a team averaged a paltry 3.67 yards per carry.  What is strange is that while their yards per carry declined as the season progressed, their total rushing yards per game actually increased.  This statistic would indicate that the Broncos ran the ball a lot when leading big in the second half.

            This is a much harder game to figure out than the Vegas line would indicate (in other words, I’d take money on Baltimore +9 in a hot second).  Peyton Manning is 9-2 against the Ravens (including 2-0 in the playoffs) and hasn’t lost to them since 2001, which also happens to be the last time Baltimore won a game in Denver.  But let’s not also forget the seven seasons in which Manning lost his first playoff game (four of which occurred at home; in a related story, Joe Flacco has four road playoff victories).  Let’s not forget that the depleted defensive unit that took the field for the Ravens on December 16 was missing Ray Lewis.  And let’s not forget the makeup of the past few Super Bowl champs – veteran teams underperforming at the end of the regular season, but coming together healthily in the postseason at just the right time.

            It’s difficult to entirely predict, but hell, I’ll go with the Ravens.  I don’t see a blowout either way.  This is the game where Joe Flacco is transformed into simply “Joe.”  This is not the last game the Ravens players want to play with their franchise’s all-time greatest player.  This will be the sixth straight game where the Ravens’ opponent is over .500; this will be only the Broncos’ second such game since November 4.  If Baltimore wins, I’ll look like a genius.  And if they lose, I’ll look like the same guy who picked the Bengals, Colts, and Redskins last week.

            Prediction: Baltimore 17, Denver 13

Uncanny

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2005 AFC Divisional Round, Pittsburgh 21, Indianapolis 18.  Ravens fans would be loath to ever compare a squad of theirs to the Stealers, but with Lewis’ imminent retirement, this feels a little like the ’05 Jerome Bettis squad that helped the referees win the Super Bowl for The Bus in his hometown of Detroit.  Like this year, the Colts hadn’t played a meaningful game in weeks, had manhandled Pittsburgh in the regular season, and were stunned by the Stealers’ aggressive play. 

           

            Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

            Saturday, January 12, 8:00pm EST, Fox

            No serious NFL fan can say he or she doesn’t like seeing at least one playoff game every year at Candlestick Park in San Francisco; something about it just feels right, like “home fries,” “unlimited breadsticks,” or “Weinstein Oscar corruption.”  This year, it’s a rematch of the two best NFC teams of the 90s not named the Dallas Cowboys; it’s Aaron Rodgers returning to the region where he grew up, while it’s Colin Kaepernick’s matchup against a team that plays 100 miles from where he was born.  These two teams are a combined 9-1 in Super Bowls, and that number could reasonably swell to 10-1 after this season.  Given Seattle’s momentum, it seems likely that the winner of this game could host the NFC Championship against a Seahawk team each is eager to have payback against for earlier regular-season losses.

            It would be fascinating if Green Bay wins and ends up beating Seattle next week; that would mean the first three playoff quarterbacks they beat en route to the Super Bowl were Joe Webb, Colin Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson (cue Bears’ fans collective head bashing).  The oft-criticized secondary performed well last week, but if you were watching the game, you know that a good portion of Joe Webb’s 19 incompletions (on 30 attempts) had nothing to do with strong cornerback play and everything to do with the fact that Joe Webb somehow threw 30 passes.

            That begs the question of Kaepernick’s effectiveness.  The good news is that he is undefeated at home and has yet to throw an interception at Candlestick.  You can say what you want to about Kaepernick being a running quarterback, but the truth is that in the eight games he started this year, he averaged exactly as many pass attempts per game (26.1) as Alex Smith in his eight starts.  In fact, in the eternal Kaepernick vs. Smith debate (which will inevitably resurface unless San Francisco wins the Super Bowl), the only real verdict is that their numbers were frighteningly similar: Kaepernick was 6-2-1, Smith was 5-2, Kaepernick threw for 1814 yards and had 15 total TDs, Smith threw for 1737 yards and had 13 total TDs.  The only real difference was that in Smith’s starts, the 49ers gave up an average of 14.1 points per game, while in Kaepernick’s starts, they gave up 20.8.

            This stat could indicate a few things.  The first would be that San Francisco played tougher opponents down the stretch (including road games against the Patriots and Seahawks, who scored 34 and 42 points on them, respectively).  Another inference could be that Justin Smith, Dashon Goldson, and Carlos Rogers have been fighting more injuries in the second half of the season.  Or it could be that with Kaepernick at QB, the 49ers play at a faster pace than they did with Smith, and therefore are more prone to surrender points after the offense scores.

            They will need to keep up the pace against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.  Green Bay cannot realistically rely on DuJuan Harris to find any sort of success against the 49ers rush defense (pending, of course, the healthy statuses of Smith and Goldson), so it will likely come down to if the Packers can have success through the air.  In his Week 1 loss, Aaron Rodgers completed 30 passes and had 303 yards; in last year’s electrifying divisional victory against the Saints, Drew Brees threw for a ridiculous 466 yards.  A few weeks ago, Tom Brady tore up the 49ers defense after trailing 31-3, and nearly pulled off the improbable comeback.  The common throughline for these three games is that in spite of giving up big passes, especially toward the ends of each games, the 49ers still prevailed.  The secondary knows how to take a hit, but still finish games.

            The teams which have had success against San Francisco (St. Louis, Seattle, New York) were all able to run the ball and dictate the tempo of the game.  In games where the 49ers gave up 140 or more rushing yards as a team, they were 0-3-1; in all other games, they were 11-1.  Additionally, San Francisco did worse in games where they turned the ball over; they were 2-3 in games which they committed two or more giveaways.  But only one of those games was at home (the rather fluky Week 6 26-3 loss to the Giants).  In the seven other home games this season, San Francisco turned the ball over a total of three times and outscored opponents 195-85. 

            I love Aaron Rodgers, but the truth is that the only three reasons to doubt the 49ers are their injuries on both sides of the ball (on offense, Mario Manningham and Vernon Davis), the Packers’ sudden momentum, and Kaepernick’s inexperience.  Of course, Alex Smith had no experience before last year’s playoff game against the Saints, and no team had more momentum heading into the postseason last year than New Orleans.  As for the injuries, there’s always a chance they will affect the game.  But with all the success Adrian Peterson had against the Pack in the last month, why shouldn’t we believe that Kaepernick, Frank Gore, and maybe even LaMichael James could tear it up on the ground?

            Up until writing this (Thursday night) I was fully prepared to take the Packers, but every year, there always seems to emerge one team that looks too good to be true in the wild-card round.  There are many examples of this (2002 Jets, 2005 Patriots, 2011 Saints) and inevitably they disappoint the millions who bet on them and lose in the divisional road game.  I think this will be a close one, but the Packers (4-4 on the road, 2-5 in the regular season when allowing 115+ rush yards, 1-4 when unable to force a takeaway) looked a little too good against a weak team last week and on paper this week seem a little overmatched.

            Prediction: San Francisco 25, Green Bay 22

Usually I post funny/stupid pictures (see Joe Flacco) but this was too awesome not to post.

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2001 AFC Divisional Round, New England 16, Oakland 13 (OT).  Is it presumptuous to compare Colin Kaepernick’s first playoff game to Tom Brady’s “tuck rule” playoff debut?  Maybe, but like the Packers this week, everyone and their mother had money on the experienced Raiders beating some guy named Belichick and Drew Bledsoe’s backup.  San Francisco has the defense and rabid fan base to pull off a win, but it will take poise by Kaepernick to advance in the playoffs.  Call me crazy like they did 11 years ago, but I think this guy has it. 

           

            Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

            Sunday, January 13, 1:00pm EST, CBS

            Last Sunday, I texted Todd that Seattle’s win over Washington was similar to the 2005 Stealers beating the Carson Palmer-less Bengals after the vicious Kimo von Oelhoffen hit.  Think about it for a second.  The Bengals had a 66-yard completion on the second play of the game, and had a 10-point lead at home after the first quarter.  But after Palmer’s injury, the Steelers took control of the game and won by 14.  We’ll never know how Pittsburgh (or Seattle) would have fared had its opponents’ quarterback remained healthy for the entirety of the game.  Does this scenario sound familiar? 

            Now the Seahawks move on to the Falcons, a team which like the 2005 Indianapolis Colts plays in a dome and hasn’t exactly had a great deal of previous playoff success (I’ve already used the Steelers victory over the Colts as a playoff doppelganger for the Ravens-Broncos game, so I’ll have to come up with something else).  Like the 2005 Steelers, this Seahawk team appears incredibly dangerous and it’s difficult imagining a foreseeable scenario where a team can beat them.

            Can the Falcons do it?  Most statistical indications would say that, not unlike the past two seasons, the Falcons are vastly overrated.  Michael Turner had his worst-ever season as a starter, averaging 3.6 yards per carry.  But Jacquizz Rodgers hasn’t exactly been a relief, as he only averaged 3.9 yards, contributing to the fourth-worst rushing attack in the league.  Seven of Atlanta’s wins were by a touchdown or less, and they haven’t played a playoff team since October 7, when they faced the then-2-2 Redskins (including last week, Seattle has played seven 10+ win teams).  It also doesn’t help that the Falcons have never won a postseason game in the Matt Ryan era (they are 0-3, and have been outscored 102-47) and since 2005, 1 seeds are 6-10 in the divisional round.  Since 2006, only one 1 seed in the NFC (the 2009 Saints) has advanced to the championship round.  It’s amazing to think that, given recent history, the odds favor the Ravens and Seahawks this weekend.

            The good news is that the Falcons are playing at home, where they won every game this season, save a meaningless Week 17 matchup against the Buccaneers.  Although they only played three games against teams above .500, they went 3-0 in those games and outscored those opponents by an average of 16 points per game.  And although Atlanta won a lot of close games, Matt Ryan had the second-most game-winning drives of any NFL QB (6).  They are a top ten team in points scored, points allowed, giveaways, takeaways, and allowed the fewest passing touchdowns of any team in the league.  The best thing the Falcons have going is their superb passing game; Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez each had over 79 catches, 900 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns. 

            Seahawks fans should worry about their secondary – in the second half of the season, they didn’t face a single quarterback who ended up throwing for more than 4,000 yards (Matt Ryan threw for 4,719).  The loss of Chris Clemons hurts; he accounted for 11.5 of the teams 36 sacks on the season (32 percent).  In last week’s win over the Redskins, the Seahawks sacked a hobbling Griffin only twice, and it was Clemons who forced the near-fumble/incomplete pass at the beginning of the second quarter. 

            Thus, the key matchup for this game will be the Falcons’ putrid running game against the Seattle defensive line.  Atlanta is 11-0 in games where they rush for over 65 yards as a team; last week, the Seahawks allowed 104 yards to Washington.  Of course, the Redskins have a different philosophy than the pass-happy Falcons, but Atlanta wants to keep Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch off the field as much as possible.  On the other side of the ball, I don’t think any defensive unit can contain Wilson and Lynch.  It’s just not possible.  They don’t turn the ball over, the run the ball at will, and they control the clock and tempo.  Atlanta finished in the bottom 12 for both passing yards and rushing yards allowed.  In their two games against Cam Newton (a quarterback in a similar physical mold to Wilson), they surrendered 202 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only 18 carries to him.  The Falcons had eight players run for 80+ yards against them; the Seahawks only had four such players.  Unless Atlanta controls the clock and Michael Turner has a 2008-like outing, they will lose this game.

            The other key matchup will be if the Seahawks can eliminate the big passing plays for Julio Jones and Roddy White.  The two combined for six touchdowns receptions of 39 yards or longer.  But again, this is a stat that favors momentum, and in the second half of the season, Seattle allowed the third-fewest passing yards; Atlanta’s offense has the fifth-most (interestingly, their defense also allowed the fifth-most passing yards).  But the Falcons were moving the ball against teams like the Saints, Lions, Buccaneers; the Seahawks’ D defeated quarterbacks the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo. 

And yes, those games were in Seattle.  With their win in Washington last week, the Seahawks move to 4-5 on the road this season.  Matt Ryan is 33-5 at home overall.  But Seattle is 4-2 all time at Atlanta, and the last time these teams met in the Georgia Dome in 2007, the Seahawks put up 41 points.  Seattle’s defense gave up 54 fewer points on the season, Russell Wilson has a better QB rating than Matt Ryan, and as a team, the Seahawks ran for nearly twice as many rushing yards than the Falcons did in 2012 (2,579 to 1,397).  Sadly, I think this game is kind of a no-brainer.

            Prediction: Seattle 34, Atlanta 14

Over/under on Seahawk fake punts when leading by 20+: 1.5

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2010 NFC Divisional Round, Green Bay 48, Atlanta 21.  This is a no-brainer doppelganger for 12^th Man nation, and Seahawks fans surely like thinking about the 2010 Packers, a wild-card team that overcame injuries to dominate the NFC en route to the Super Bowl.  Seahawk fans will also like the fact that the last four playoff opponents the Falcons lost to (2004 Eagles, 2008 Cardinals, 2010 Packers, 2011 Giants) all eventually reached the Super Bowl.  This is a promising indication that the Falcons have not been effective at stopping teams on a roll.

            Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5)
            Sunday, January 13, 4:30pm EST, CBS

            Do you know what I hate most about this matchup?  As a helplessly superstitious Patriots fan, I don’t really think about Gronkowski’s left forearm or Houston’s zone-blitz schemes.  The thing I worry the most about – and hate the most – is that this game is being played on Sunday afternoon of the divisional round. 

            For those of you who need a refresher, the late Sunday game has not exactly been friendly to higher-seeded teams.  Here’s what the recent history offers:

2012: (4) New York Giants 37, (1) Green Bay 20

2011: (6) New York Jets 28, (1) New England 21

2010: (5) New York Jets 17, (2) San Diego 14

2009: (2) Pittsburgh 35, (4) San Diego 24

2008: (5) New York Giants 21, (1) Dallas 17

2007: (4) New England 24, (1) San Diego 21

2006: (5) Carolina 29, (2) Chicago 21

            So not only have six of the last seven Sunday afternoon division games have featured road team victories (the exception being, who else, the Stealers), but these matchups have generally been bad for the remainder of the postseason.  Both Giants teams went on to the Super Bowl to beat the Patriots, the 2011 Jets lost to the Stealers in the next round, and the 2006 Panthers fell in Seattle the following week.  And believe it or not, but I remember quietly rooting for the Chargers in 2007.

            Now let’s get real.  History and superstition are about the only things the Texans have going in their favor.  Yes, there are some similarities between this game and 2011.  Two years ago, the Pats beat the Jets 45-3 on a Week 13 Monday night matchup; this season, New England beat Houston 42-14 on a Week 14 Monday night matchup.  But the 2011 Jets team that stormed into Foxboro and won (a playoff defeat which personally hurt me more than either Super Bowl loss) had already won three road playoff games in previous two seasons, and had gone 2-2 against the Patriots during that same span.  They had experience, which this year’s Texans do not.  Houston has never won a road playoff game, and until last week, Matt Schaub had never played in a playoff game.  In their two games in Foxboro, the Texans have been outscored 82-21.  Last week, they nearly lost to a team that mustered 198 yards of offense and didn’t move the ball past the Houston 47 until midway through the third quarter.

            As a Patriots fan, that loss to the Jets will always scar me and make me afraid of opponents we blew out in the regular season (there are always so many!)  Actually, in reality, that fear goes back to 2007, when we beat the Giants to clinch 16-0 but lost to them five weeks later in the Super Bowl.  See, I believe that, not too unlike the Yankees in baseball, the other 31 NFC teams have a special motivation to beat the Patriots because we’ve been so dominant the last decade.  I firmly believe that Schaub, Arian Foster, and J.J. Watt will be out for blood this Sunday.  And I believe that it will be very unlikely for the Patriots to replicate their 28-point blowout five weeks ago.  The playoffs change everything.

            But I just don’t see how New England loses this game.  When they beat the Texans, they did it without Rob Gronkowski.  During the regular season, the Patriots outscored their opponents by 226 points; only two other teams since 2000 have outscored opponents by more.  Remember how I said Denver finished in the top five in offense, both in points and yards?  Well this year’s Patriots finished third in scoring offense and fifth in yards gained . . . of all time in the regular season.  Remember how I said Denver’s -1 turnover ratio was disturbing?  Over the last three seasons, the Patriots are +70 in turnover margin; the team with the second-highest margin is the Packers, at +41.  In that same span, New England has 43 turnovers; this season, three teams alone had 37 (and Denver had 25). 

            I’m sorry I’m talking about Denver . . . (perhaps prematurely.)  I know I shouldn’t look past Houston, but with how shaky they looked last week, at home against a team which hadn’t won a playoff game in 22 years, it’s just hard to see a 2011 repeat.  To beat New England, you need to score points; in their last six games, the Texans have not eclipsed 30 points, and have only scored 20+ twice.  Last week, Houston’s defensive line only sacked Andy Dalton twice, and Cincinnati ran only 46 offensive plays.  Let me repeat that – 46 offensive plays!  And although that may be a testament to Houston’s success, you can’t expect those same kind of numbers with a juggernaut Patriots offense that averages just over 74 plays per game.  To win, Houston will have to control the line of scrimmage and the clock, convert third downs, keep Brady in check, and score touchdowns instead of field goals – all in a hostile outdoor environment.  It has been done before (ask Colin Kaepernick).  But I don’t see Houston as a team capable of doing it. 

            Now the Patriots’ offense didn’t end the year in the same dominant fashion as they were mid-season (during one four-game stretch, the Pats averaged 47.5 points per game).  But their oft-criticized defense dramatically improved; in their final six games, the allowed over 19 points only once. The extra week of rest for Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard will be beneficial, and a healthy Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez will wreak havoc on the Texans’ secondary.  New Orleans is where Tom Brady won his first title; he wants another trip back.

            Prediction: New England 38, Houston 24

Win one for Gigli and his callous Oscar snub.

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2007 AFC Divisional Round, New England 31, Jacksonville 20.  It wasn’t quite a rematch (or a blowout) but the Jags were a relatively inexperienced team with a strong defense and good running game.  They did hold the Pats to a 14-14 tie at halftime, but New England outscored them 17-6 in the second half, with Brady going a remarkable 26 for 28 passing.  It wasn’t the best the 2007 Patriots looked, but they were assured and effective, and Donte Stallworth led all receivers with 68 yards (hopefully this weekend he will repeat catches like these).  That game was on a Saturday night, though . . .

Reactions to the Nominations: 2013

First off, I loved the new announcement ceremony. It makes it more like a mini-production, rather than just a press conference. It gave a moment between categories, rather than just rattling them off and having to wait until the ticker at the bottom relays them to really process the nominations. Anyway, there are some random inclusions, as usual, but not a ton of shockers. This was made even more interesting by having it take place in front of all of the major awards shows. We still know nothing. I like that. Well, check out what the Academy decided to single out this year and my brief thoughts on it. Enjoy and happy awards season!

Best Picture
Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 7 for 9

Reactions: So, it appears even in a year such as this, where there are a clear five films that have stood above the rest throughout the precursors, there are still going to be 9 films nominated. I predicted 8 would be the number. 5% of first place votes seems very significant to me, but maybe it is this spread out every year. I predicted The Master and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for the top 9, which were replaced by Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild. What this says to me is that Micheal Haneke might be the most popular foreign director in the world (first BP nom for a foreign film since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), and nearly every year will have that no-budget indie that will get taken all the way from Sundance to the “Big Dance”. This is not too bad of a lineup. It is much better than the train wreck of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse last year. It is a solid group for a solid, somewhat below average year overall.

Preliminary prediction: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Director

Michael Haneke – Amour

Ang Lee – Life of Pi

David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Wait a minute…what? Where’s Ben Affleck!? Really, Academy? Seriously? Come on. That movie screamed Oscar and was probably the most complex direction of the year. He is one of the best directors working right now, makes three home runs in a row, the third of which totally catered to your style, and you cannot nominate him, why? Because he’s Ben Affleck. The day after we see the Baseball Writers of America becoming the story in the sports world by not giving anyone access to the Hall of Fame and making what amounts to a political decision not to put a certain era of players into a baseball museum, the Oscar voters do something similar by deciding to snub the best director of the year just because he used to be a lousy actor and used to fill the tabloids with his love life and whatnot. Give me a break. What do you want the guy to do? Anyway… I digress. I predicted 3 correctly, missing Haneke and Zeitlin by predicting Affleck and Bigelow. I cannot believe that two of the stone cold locks of the season did not make it into the most important category, but hey it was a surprise right? Sure, but not in the category we like to see them in.

Preliminary Prediction: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Denzel Washington – Flight

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I knew that last spot would come down to John Hawkes and Hugh Jackman. Jackman was average and one of the worst parts of Les Mis, but he was the lead in a movie the Academy loved. So I guess that is good enough for them. But not for Ben Affleck. I am surprised they didn’t give him the producing shaft and give 2 noms to Clooney instead. Here we have what appears like a one horse race, but I have a sneaky feeling that DDL might get a challenge from Phoenix. They clearly didn’t love The Master, but three acting noms is huge. They might want to give it one of them and not give Day-Lewis a third Oscar when he doesn’t really work all that often. Wishful thinking, maybe/probably…

Preliminary Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had former winners Rachel Weisz and Marion Cotillard in for Wallis and Riva. I love the fact that the oldest ever and youngest ever Best Actress nominees are in the same category. Wallis was terrific in her movie, and definitely deserved to be singled out, but judging by my predictions, I clearly did not think Beasts would be this popular. This category only has two contenders, and judging by the massive love for SLP, I gotta think it is going the way of the budding superstar.

Preliminary Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin – Argo

Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had it written where it was possible that Waltz could get in over DiCaprio. I almost expected it, but I went the other way. The Academy really went out of their way to not be predictable this year. They snubbed some of the biggest contenders in several categories. I have no problem with the group of former winners, though. It is by far the most wide open acting category in years. Which winner will they want to give a second Oscar to first? It won’t be Arkin, who received the throw-away nomination of the year with no chance of winning. Waltz was really a lead, so maybe they go that way? Hoffman gave one of the performances of the year and probably has the best chance of winning in his movie. Tommy Lee Jones has the critical favorite role in the leading nomination-getter. There is two-time winner Robert De Niro in the most popular film with actors. I feel that with all of the Academy members who look up to De Niro and want a comeback so badly that a win here would finally be their way of re-validating him. The Golden Globe snub is still confusing to me, but it happens sometimes.

Preliminary Prediction: Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Master

Sally Field – Lincoln

Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Well, I had Jacki Weaver on my longlist back in like July. After the precursors started and she didn’t show up anywhere, I knew it was over for her. It’s a random nomination, but a good one. She is a great character actress. I had Nicole Kidman getting that fifth spot. This award is going to Anne Hathaway, but that doesn’t matter. Can anyone name the last time we had a movie with nominees in all four acting categories?...anyone… That’s right, Reds. 1981. That is how unprecedented the love the Academy has for Weinstein…err…Silver Linings Playbook. That is an incredible achievement. This is a solid group of nominees, actually. And it is official…Amy Adams: the next Thelma Ritter. She is nominated for every remotely serious movie she does, yet never really comes close to winning. That has to change.

Preliminary Prediction: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Original Screenplay

Amour – Michael Haneke

Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino

Flight – John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I always look for that random screenplay nomination (The Messenger, Margin Call, In Bruges) to tell me what indie is going to be one of the best movies of the year. The only oddball nom we got was freaking Flight. Horrible. I went against my better judgment and put The Master in the fifth spot. This is an interesting category. Amour seems to be this year’s Talk to Her. Zero Dark Thirty might not be as surefire a winner here like we thought, and Django might have a bit more backing than we thought. It is an interesting race here, but for now, I am going with the upset.

Preliminary Prediction: Amour – Michael Haneke

Adapted Screenplay

Argo – Chris Terrio

Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi – David Magee

Lincoln – Tony Kushner

Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: It appears all is forgiven with David O. Russell. I guess they can’t do the same for Affleck. Ok, I will stop now. But seriously they probably would have snubbed his movie here if he had received a writing credit. Ok, really done now. Continuing the trend, I had Beasts out in favor of The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which I thought would have a big fan base, but I guess not. This one is over before it even starts.

Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln – Tony Kushner

Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty and The Master in and Anna Karenina and Django out. That is a great oddball choice by the Academy, though, putting Robert Richardson’s terrific work in this category. Too bad it was at the expense of The Master, one of the more impressive camera jobs in years. I can only hope that Roger Deakins takes this for his magnificent work on Skyfall, but it isn’t happening. There is a massive epic with CGI, you know... That has to win…

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Art Direction Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: BOOM! My first/only perfect category, even if I can’t remember that they changed the name of it. Everything here is about normal. Costume dramas, more CGI, yawn…

Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln

Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Cloud Atlas in for Snow White and the Huntsman. Two Snow White films in the same category? Nice. Neither of them are winning this.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Avengers in and Lincoln, Argo, and Skyfall out. I forgot that this is a sneaky important category. Most winners are mentioned here. It is just crazy that Argo gets the shaft in Director, but it is everywhere else it needs to be.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Les Miserables in for SLP. So, if history is any indication, we officially have three films with a chance: Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Life of Pi. For the record, Ordinary People (1980) was the last to win Best Picture without an Editing nomination (that is probably what cost Brokeback Mountain the top prize), and no film since Driving Miss Daisy (1989) has won without a Directing nomination. Interesting developments.

Preliminary Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had The Dark Knight Rises (shut out, by the way), The Avengers, and Looper in for Argo, Django, and Zero Dark Thirty. Nothing really to comment on here. Life of Pi really is this year’s Hugo and Argo somehow pops up in an action movie category. Alright…

Preliminary Prediction: Skyfall

Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had John Carter and The Dark Knight Rises in for Prometheus and Snow White. This appears to be a competitive category, but recently this award seems to be going to contenders.

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Predicted: 1 for 3

Reactions: I had Looper and Men in Black 3 in for Hitchcock and The Hobbit. This is a very standard Oscar category. I guess I went with a couple underdog ones, since they do like to throw a Norbit or Click in there every once in a while.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Song

“Before My Time” – Chasing Ice

“Suddenly” – Les Miserables

“Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi

“Skyfall” – Skyfall

“Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had the Paul Williams Still Alive, Brave, and Hunger Games songs in for Chasing Ice (what?), Life of Pi, and Ted. Second time in three years that the host is nominated at his ceremony. If I am not mistaken, I believe that a Bond film has never won in this category, so Oscar will find a way to screw this up too.

Preliminary Prediction: “Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted

Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Master and Zero Dark Thirty in for Skyfall and Anna Karenina. Is it just me, or is Anna Karenina one of the most curiously underperforming movies this year? No real box office, tons of early buzz, four technical nominations. I am still trying to figure out what happened to Keira Knightley. Let’s see…Argo’s score is certainly this year’s Michael Clayton/The Hurt Locker, the one that we will just have to take the voters’ word for it because no one remembers it. Wow, they really hated The Master. Skyfall here? Awesome. I kinda wish we would have seen one major nom for it, the second best of all the Bond films, but oh well.

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Documentary

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had This is Not a Film and Ai Weiwei in for 5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers. I am not too familiar with any of these because none of them have really been widely released or publicized this year. This category is always a bit strange, anyway. I will just take a stab at a semi-upset.

Preliminary Prediction: The Invisible War

Foreign Language Film

Amour

War Witch

No

A Royal Affair

Kon-Tiki

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Intouchables in for A Royal Affair. I really thought that was the winner in this category. I never know what to think here. Sometimes the clear favorite (Pan’s Labyrinth, for instance) loses despite several nominations. Sometimes that movie (like last year’s An Education) was winning regardless. Sometimes that favorite (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) is not even submitted by its country for eligibility in this category. I am not sure whether they just love Amour that much and will give it whatever it can, or whether they will want it to really compete for the top awards and not hold it back. I just cannot go against it, though.

Preliminary Prediction: Amour

Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had From Up on Poppy Hill and Rise of the Guardians in for ParaNorman and The Pirates. This category is really wide open. I am not sure if they want Tim Burton to be a winner yet, but this would be a way to give him a back-handed award, rather than a Best Director. Eh…just for the hell of it, I am going with my heart.

Preliminary Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

Overall predictions: 72/107; 67.29% (69.23% in 2012)

Without the last 5 categories: 57/82; 69.51% (73.17% in 2012)

On the Big 8 categories: 33/44; 75.00% (79.55% in 2012)

So, I was slightly down from last year, which was slightly down from the year before that. I attribute that to not seeing as many movies the last couple years. Plus, this year was just weird, especially for the top categories. No real off-the-wall Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah-esque shockers, but just some minor surprises. I can and will do better next year!

5 coolest first-time nominees:

(there is no way I can come up with 10 this year)

1. Seth MacFarlane

2. Adele

3. Bradley Cooper

4. Quvenzhane Wallis

5. Roman Coppola

10 worst snubs:

1. Ben Affleck for Best Director

2. The Master for Best Cinematography, Sound Mixing, and Best Original Score

3. Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Supporting Actor

4. Looper for Best Original Screenplay

5. The Hunger Games for Best Production Design

6. Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director (I am assuming)

7. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter for Best Visual Effects

8. The Perks of Being a Wallflower for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress (Emma Watson)

9. Matthew McConnaugey for Best Actor (Killer Joe) and Best Supporting Actor (Magic Mike)

10. Richard Gere for Best Actor (getting used to that…)

So, after a discussion with Terry, we came up with the best possible comparison of this year to a past year: 1998. The huge Spielberg production was the odds-on favorite (Saving Private Ryan/Lincoln). There is a beloved foreign film nominated for Best Picture, Director, Acting, Screenplay, etc. (Life if Beautiful/Amour). There is the misunderstood and unconventional military movie (The Thin Red Line/Zero Dark Thirty). There is the popular costume drama (Elizabeth/Les Miserables)…bit of a stretch on that one, I know. There is probably the best movie of the year that got major snubs come nomination morning (The Truman Show/Argo). The movie that is going to take the whole thing, however, is the dark horse comedy distributed by the Weinsteins (Shakespeare in Love/Silver Linings Playbook). They will still throw Spielberg his directing bone, but the crowd-pleaser is the movie that will somehow come out on top for Best Picture. It will be interesting to see how the next few days shape the race, with the Critics Choice Awards tonight and the Golden Globes in three days. I love this time of year!

Stay tuned for our Fifth Annual Oscar Challenge! What do you think of this year’s crop of nominees? Who are you predicting to win? Let me know in the comments.