2018 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#29

The Detroit Tigers started to hit the reset button on their roster at the end of 2017.  Was it enough to compete with a new core in 2018, or will they have further to fall before they get better?

My 2017 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Brad Ausmus will be fired mid-season.

2017 Results

64-98, 5th in NL Central

The Tigers were a much better team than their final record ended up showing.  However, once they decided to start selling key pieces like Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Verlander, the season went south in a hurry.  Brad Ausmus was always touted as one of those players that would make a great manager, but his marriage with the Tigers was a trainwreck.  I predicted he would be fired mid-season.  It was announced he would be fired before the end of the season, but he was allowed to finish the year.  I hope he gets another opportunity to manage at some point.  I am not willing to write him off as a failure just yet.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers continued to transition into re-build mode throughout the offseason.  The biggest name moved over the offseason was All Star second baseman Ian Kinsler being traded to the Angels.  There were rumors surrounding players like Miguel Cabrera and Michael Fulmer, but nothing ever materialized.  Outside of a a veteran signing here or there of guys like Leonys Martin, the Tigers felt content with developing a new young core alongside the remaining veterans they can't / refuse to move.  Possibly the biggest offseason transaction was hiring Ron Gardenhire as their new manager.  One of the most respected coaches in all of baseball, Gardenhire will be a welcome stabilizing force after the dysfunction that marred Ausmus's tenure as manager.

Most Important Hitter

Miguel Cabrera

Even through a rebuild, the Tigers start and end with Miguel Cabrera.  We seemed to watch him age 10 years before our eyes during 2017, going from one of the greatest offensive forces of his generation to a broken down veteran on the brink of retirement in one season.  In his age 34 season, Miggy had a negative WAR in 2017.  Outside of his rookie season, he has only posted a WAR below 3.0 once (his first season in Detroit).  There has to more in the tank, at least the Tigers are hoping so.  He is under a behemoth contract through 2023, with two option years on top of that.  Cabrera needs to be more than the shell of himself he was in 2017, either so Detroit can get more production out of his contract or to give him trade value so someone is convinced he is worth dealing for.  Either way, this is an important year for Miggy and his relationship with the Tigers.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Norris

Daniel Norris was the key piece the Tigers received back in the David Price trade with the Blue Jays in 2015.  He was thought to be a potential ace of the staff moving forward.  However, his Tiger career has been defined by injuries and disappointment instead of production and success.  The ability of a player like Norris to finally deliver on his potential will determine how long this Tiger rebuild will take.

Prospect to Watch

Franklin Perez

Franklin Perez was the key piece Detroit got back in last year's Justin Verlander trade with the Astros.  Sometimes, it takes years to see the true results of a prospect-laden deal like this one, however Perez has a good chance of playing a role for the Tigers this season.  This 20 year-old hurler should be a fun rookie to watch the second half of this season, especially if the Tigers are out of contention.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL Central

Unfortunately, it looks like the Tigers are still working their way down to rock bottom before they can start getting better.  They do have some decent prospects working through their system, especially on the pitching end, but most are not as close to contributing as Perez.  They remind me of the Philadelphia Phillies a couple years ago.  They got stuck being over-committed to some veterans past their prime that they needed to stick with before they could move on and improve.  The Tigers are hoping this isn't the case quite yet with guys like Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Jordan Zimmermann, but they are looking more like terrible investments that will hurt the franchise for the next few years.  The highlights of the Tigers' season will occur in July when Tiger legends Alan Trammel and Jack Morris are inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Fearless Prediction

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

Victor Martinez is entering his age 39 season, which is also a contract year for him.  After injuries plagued his 2017 season, Martinez needs to show he can still be of value to a team.  Either he shows there is still a little in the tank and gets traded to a contender, or he shows that the tank is empty and the Tigers release him.  Either way, he doesn't end the season as a Tiger, and this is probably his last dance.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

Slowly but surely, the Toronto Blue Jays have been working their way up the most competitive division in baseball.  Will this year lead to their first playoff since their World Series win in 1993?

Last Season

83-79, 3rd in AL East

The Orioles may have run away with the division last year, but the Blue Jays made the biggest strides, finishing with a record above .500 for the first time since 2010.  More than almost any other team in baseball, Toronto has been actively working to improve their team any way they can, and it all finally started to pay off.  Finishing only a game out of 2nd place, there is a lot of optimism that they will be able to take the next step and make the playoffs.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

As has become expected, the Blue Jays were once again active this offseason in improving their team.  Snatching up some solid pieces like Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak, and Dayan Viciedo will add to the depth of their roster, but the biggest acquisitions were definitely Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin.  Donaldson is widely regarded as one of the best third basemen in the game, balancing power with Gold Glove caliber defense.  With Russell Martin, the Blue Jays not only acquired a solid offensive threat, but one of the best game managers behind the plate.  Martin strikes me as one of those future managers once he retires.  Having Russell Martin makes every pitcher on their team instantly better.  As far as subtractions go, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus were players that needed to see if a change of scenery would actually help them achieve the potential they once had.  Melky Cabrera will be missed, but seems to have been replaced.  On the pitching side, losing JA Happ and Brandon Morrow are hardly devastating.  The biggest loss is actually Marcus Stroman, who tore his ACL recently and will miss the season.

Most Important Hitter

Jose Reyes

The Blue Jays definitely have some pop in the middle of their lineup with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and now Josh Donaldson.  The success of their offense will depend on if there is anyone on base for the heart of their lineup to drive in.  It is hard to believe Jose Reyes will be turning 32 this season.  He has been a solid lead-off hitter his entire career.  However, due to a myriad of injuries throughout his career, he has never emerged as one of the best in the game like everyone thought he would when he was a prospect for the Mets.  The Blue Jays, although they wouldn't complain, do not need Reyes to be the superstar.  They simply need him to be consistent and healthy.  In 2014, he played 143 games, hit .287, and stole 30 bases.  In 2013, he was limited to just 93 games.  He seems to miss significant time about every other year.  Toronto needs that trend to break.

Most Important Pitcher

Brett Cecil

If last year taught us anything, it taught us that a bullpen can make or break a team.  There is no way the Kansas City Royals make the World Series without the best bullpen in baseball.  This is partially why it was so surprising the Blue Jays make no moves to better their bullpen this offseason.  Last year's closer, Casey Janssen, has moved on, and wasn't that successful for them to begin with.  Instead of going out and finding a closer, the Blue Jays have decided to go with what they have, promoting Brett Cecil to the position.  For this season to be successful, they have to have consistency in the 9th inning.  Cecil is the guy that will start the year as the closer.  If he ends the year as the closer, the Blue Jays made the right move by not making a move.

Player to Watch

Daniel Norris

With the injury to Marcus Stroman, there is a hole in a rotation that wasn't elite to begin with.  That hole might be filled by top prospect Daniel Norris.  Known more right now for living in his van throughout the offseason, Norris is actually the Blue Jays top prospect and ranked #18 on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects in baseball.  Given the opportunity, he may prove this year why he is so highly thought of.

Prediction

1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

(Sorry, I couldn't go an article about the Blue Jays without mentioning Munenori Kawasaki.)

For being one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, the AL East might be leading the spring in question marks.  Will the Red Sox bounce back?  Can the Orioles repeat without replacing what they lost?  Do the aging Yankees have another run in them?  Can the Rays still be competitive without Joe Maddon?  The Blue Jays may have the fewest question marks entering the season.  They have no problem scoring runs, which is rare in today's game.  They have adequate pitching.  It is time for them to end their postseason drought.  They will not make it far (like I said, pitching wins in the playoffs), but they will revitalize a fan base that has been yearning for winner for over 20 years.