2020 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#29

The Detroit Tigers had been flirting with 100 losses in 2017 and 2018 before finally crossing the line and becoming the worst in baseball in 2019.  There are also only 3 or 4 players left from their roster the last time they were good as they have been stockpiling young talent.  Will 2020 see improvement or more cellar-dwelling?

2019 Predictions

#27 - 4th in AL Central

MIH: Nicholas Castellanos

MIP: Michael Fulmer

PTW: Alex Faedo

FP: Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.

2019 Results

#30 - 47-114, 5th in AL Central

Going into the 2019 season, it felt like there was some stiff competition for the cellar of the AL Central between the Tigers and the Royals.  I didn't expect the Tigers to bottom out quite like they did.  Castellanos and Fulmer held so much importance last season for their trade value.  Castellanos did indeed get traded while Fulmer ended up having Tommy John surgery before the season even started.  Even with Fulmer's injury, the pitching performed okay in 2019 (which isn't a huge accomplishment in spacious Comerica Park).  It was the offense that failed them.  The team posted an overall OPS+ of 78 (100 is league average), with only Castellanos posting a total above average at 105, while only three of the team's top 12 players in terms of WAR were position players (one of which was Castellanos who didn't even play the whole season in Detroit).  My Prospect to Watch failed me as well as Alex Faedo, who was drafted as a potentially MLB-ready battle-tested college arm, struggled to regain the form that made him the ace of a College World Series winning team.

Additions / Subtractions

It's easy to compare the Tigers and Orioles right now as they both are going through some difficult rebuilding years.  However, what makes the Tigers different is they are willing to try and bring in some veterans on one year deals to hold spots for some of the young kids coming up, mentor them along the way, and perhaps be flipped at the Trade Deadline if they have a decent season.  This year's crop of players brought into Detroit include C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Cameron Maybin, Austin Romine, and Ivan Nova.  Guys like Cron and Schoop actually are still quality players that could bring some real value to the team.

Most Important Hitter

Jonathan Schoop

Honestly, there isn't much interesting or exciting about this lineup outside of the veterans.  Niko Goodrum is really the only homegrown talent in the lineup that has been able to make a mark in the big leagues as one of the better utility men.  So when picking the important hitter, I am going with the most interesting hitter, and that is Jonathan Schoop.  Like I said before, he can bring some real value to the Tigers.  Only three years removed from being an All Star in 2017, he has had a roller coaster career since, being traded into a platoon in 2018 before regaining a little of his old form in Minnesota in 2019.  Now he is in Detroit as a seasoned veteran mid-season trade chip, even though he is just entering his age 28 season.  Is he the All Star of 2017?  Is he the player that will struggle to find the field he was in 2018?  Or is he somewhere in between like he was in 2019?  It is also the first time he will really be looked at as a potential leader on his team.  I am fascinated to see where how this season plays out for Schoop.

Most Important Pitcher

Matthew Boyd

Last year was a disappointment in a lot of ways for the Tigers, but their best player (at least their best player that was still on the roster at the end of the season) was Matthew Boyd.  The lefty quickly became the ace of their pitching staff and became one of the few bright spots for the Tigers throughout the season.  In fact, the most surprising thing about him might have been the fact that he was never traded.  He was at the heart of many trade rumors and continues to be as the 2020 season gets ready to begin.  Only entering his age 29 season and under club control through 2023, as long as Boyd stays healthy he will be one of the most sought after pitchers on the market when the contenders are looking to upgrade at the Trade Deadline.  You might ask why the Tigers would be willing to trade their young ace when they are trying to rebuild.  The answer is simple ... they have several future aces about to burst on the scene in their farm system.

Prospect to Watch

Casey Mize

One positive about being terrible for an extended period of time and trading away all your top veterans is you build a really good farm system.  Last year's Prospect to Watch, Alex Faedo, now can barely hang on in the top 10 prospects in the Tigers' system.  The Tigers have four players in the Top 100 Prospects, with all of them appearing in the top 50.  Three of those four are pitchers, with Casey Mize being the best of the group.  The 2018 number one overall selection in the draft out of Auburn is the top player in the Tigers' system and the #7 prospect in all of baseball.  With an upper-90's fastball and an elite splitter, Mize has the makeup to be the Tigers' ace for the next decade.  Last season, he topped out in AA.  The potentially truncated 2020 season might delay his big league debut a year, but waiting for him, and fellow top pitching prospect Matt Manning, to splash on the scene is one of the few things Tigers fans have to be excited about.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL Central

The Tigers and the Orioles have been two of the worst teams in baseball over the last three season, and this season isn't going to change that fact.  The only reason I am putting the Tigers above the Orioles is because they brought in some more impact veterans and have their top prospects potentially debuting and having an impact this season.  With all that said, the Tigers are not going to be ready to compete until 2022 or 2023.

Fearless Prediction

Miguel Cabrera will retire at the end of the 2020 season.

One of the last holdovers from the Tigers' glory days is Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters of this generation, winning the Triple Crown in 2012, and an easy first ballot Hall of Famer.  However, he is now entering his age 37 season, and his body has broken down so much that he can't really do anything but DH.  Even with that, last year he only totaled 12 home runs and 59 RBI's while posting an OPS+ of 96, making him now a below average hitter.  It is hard to see the greats hold on too long, and I'm afraid Miggy already has.  This really could be his last season, especially if the injury bug hits him yet again, however there are three reasons he might stick around longer.  First, he is 185 hits shy of 3000, a total he can reach by the end of 2021 if he stays healthy.  Second, he is 23 home runs shy of 500, which again is attainable by the end of 2021.  Third, the Tigers are committed to pay him over $30 million per year through 2023.  So there's that.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#27

The Detroit Tigers are definitely in a rebuild mode in the weakest division in baseball.  Can they take advantage of the poor division and be a surprise this season?

My 2018 Predictions

5th in AL Central

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

2018 Results

64-98, 3rd in AL Central

Your division must be pretty bad if you almost get 100 losses and still finish third in your division.  Manager Ron Gardenhire's first season in Detroit wasn't spectacular, but it looks like he is steering it in the right direction.  As for my fearless prediction, it somehow came true.  After a season that truly showed that Victor Martinez had nothing left in the tank, he walked away from the game with a great farewell gesture about one week before the end of the season.  It was a fitting end for a great player that will have a fascinating argument for Cooperstown in five years.

Additions / Subtractions

Outside of the Victor Martinez retirement, there were only a few subtractions.  Catcher James McCann, pitcher Francisco Liriano, and shortstop Jose Iglesias hit free agency and went elsewhere.  They replaced them with some short term veteran players to fill in the gap while they wait for some of their prospects to develop.  So in comes shortstop Jordy Mercer, super utilityman Josh Harrison, and starters Tyson Ross and Matt Moore.  All of these players are just looking for an opportunity to show that they still have some value to teams who might be looking for help at the Trade Deadline.

Most Important Hitter

Nicholas Castellanos

There are only a few players left from the previous Tiger core that can still have some value on the trade market.  Possibly the most notable of these is Nicholas Castellanos.  Even through the lean years in Detroit, he has been a model of consistency, putting up solid season after solid season.  This will only be his age 27 season, and he will not be a free agent until after the 2020 season.  This Trade Deadline would be the ideal time to move him, but he has to prove he can continue his All Star caliber play to make the most impact on the market.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Fulmer

A year younger than Castellanos, Michael Fulmer has been an anchor to the Tiger rotation since he broke into the league in 2016 as the Rookie of the Year.  He followed it up with an All Star appearance in 2017, but 2018 was disappointing as he fell below average (according to ERA+) for the first time in his career.  Fulmer, like Castellanos, has been rumored to be a trade chip for quite awhile.  He has to return to All Star form for Fulmer to be valuable to the Tigers on the trade market.

Prospect to Watch

Alex Faedo

The reason the Tigers might be eager to move on from Michael Fulmer is their farm system.  The Tigers have five right handed starters listed in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball that are set to break into the big leagues in the next couple seasons, including Casey Mize, last year's number one overall pick.  The pitcher out of this group most likely to make his debut and have an impact in 2019 is Alex Faedo, the Tigers' first round pick from 2017.  The 23 year old pitcher out of Florida made it to AA in his first full season of pro ball in 2018.  If he continues on this fast track to the big leagues, look or him to be in the Tigers' rotation by the end of the season.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The Tigers are still a couple years away from being relevant, but they are on the way back and will at least be interesting.  Their farm system will be slowly bringing their new core along over the next couple seasons.  Until then, Tiger fans will have to instead ask themselves questions like, "Will Miguel Cabrera stay healthy enough to play the whole season?"  And people wonder why teams are now hesitant to sign players to the mega deals...

Fearless Prediction

Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.

The Tigers have an outstanding farm system when it comes to pitching, but they are lacking the studs offensively.  If you aren't planning on these two being a part of the plan in this next wave, the sooner you trade them the better.  There is no reason for either of these two to have bad years, which means their trade value should be as high as it will ever be come the Trade Deadline.  Move on and keep going on the rebuild.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#29

The Detroit Tigers started to hit the reset button on their roster at the end of 2017.  Was it enough to compete with a new core in 2018, or will they have further to fall before they get better?

My 2017 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Brad Ausmus will be fired mid-season.

2017 Results

64-98, 5th in NL Central

The Tigers were a much better team than their final record ended up showing.  However, once they decided to start selling key pieces like Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Verlander, the season went south in a hurry.  Brad Ausmus was always touted as one of those players that would make a great manager, but his marriage with the Tigers was a trainwreck.  I predicted he would be fired mid-season.  It was announced he would be fired before the end of the season, but he was allowed to finish the year.  I hope he gets another opportunity to manage at some point.  I am not willing to write him off as a failure just yet.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers continued to transition into re-build mode throughout the offseason.  The biggest name moved over the offseason was All Star second baseman Ian Kinsler being traded to the Angels.  There were rumors surrounding players like Miguel Cabrera and Michael Fulmer, but nothing ever materialized.  Outside of a a veteran signing here or there of guys like Leonys Martin, the Tigers felt content with developing a new young core alongside the remaining veterans they can't / refuse to move.  Possibly the biggest offseason transaction was hiring Ron Gardenhire as their new manager.  One of the most respected coaches in all of baseball, Gardenhire will be a welcome stabilizing force after the dysfunction that marred Ausmus's tenure as manager.

Most Important Hitter

Miguel Cabrera

Even through a rebuild, the Tigers start and end with Miguel Cabrera.  We seemed to watch him age 10 years before our eyes during 2017, going from one of the greatest offensive forces of his generation to a broken down veteran on the brink of retirement in one season.  In his age 34 season, Miggy had a negative WAR in 2017.  Outside of his rookie season, he has only posted a WAR below 3.0 once (his first season in Detroit).  There has to more in the tank, at least the Tigers are hoping so.  He is under a behemoth contract through 2023, with two option years on top of that.  Cabrera needs to be more than the shell of himself he was in 2017, either so Detroit can get more production out of his contract or to give him trade value so someone is convinced he is worth dealing for.  Either way, this is an important year for Miggy and his relationship with the Tigers.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Norris

Daniel Norris was the key piece the Tigers received back in the David Price trade with the Blue Jays in 2015.  He was thought to be a potential ace of the staff moving forward.  However, his Tiger career has been defined by injuries and disappointment instead of production and success.  The ability of a player like Norris to finally deliver on his potential will determine how long this Tiger rebuild will take.

Prospect to Watch

Franklin Perez

Franklin Perez was the key piece Detroit got back in last year's Justin Verlander trade with the Astros.  Sometimes, it takes years to see the true results of a prospect-laden deal like this one, however Perez has a good chance of playing a role for the Tigers this season.  This 20 year-old hurler should be a fun rookie to watch the second half of this season, especially if the Tigers are out of contention.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL Central

Unfortunately, it looks like the Tigers are still working their way down to rock bottom before they can start getting better.  They do have some decent prospects working through their system, especially on the pitching end, but most are not as close to contributing as Perez.  They remind me of the Philadelphia Phillies a couple years ago.  They got stuck being over-committed to some veterans past their prime that they needed to stick with before they could move on and improve.  The Tigers are hoping this isn't the case quite yet with guys like Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Jordan Zimmermann, but they are looking more like terrible investments that will hurt the franchise for the next few years.  The highlights of the Tigers' season will occur in July when Tiger legends Alan Trammel and Jack Morris are inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Fearless Prediction

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

Victor Martinez is entering his age 39 season, which is also a contract year for him.  After injuries plagued his 2017 season, Martinez needs to show he can still be of value to a team.  Either he shows there is still a little in the tank and gets traded to a contender, or he shows that the tank is empty and the Tigers release him.  Either way, he doesn't end the season as a Tiger, and this is probably his last dance.