2023 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

 #26

The Detroit Tigers have felt primed for a breakout season for several years now.  Now, as they prepare to celebrate the final season of their future Hall of Famer, has the window for their possible breakout closed?

2022 Predictions

#15 - 2nd in AL Central

MIH - Javier Baez

MIP - Casey Mize

PTW - Spencer Torkelson

2022 Results

#25 - 66-96, 4th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Javier Baez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Tarik Skubal

The 2022 Tigers showed a lot of promise.  They had their brand new star signed to a huge deal, they had their former #1 overall pick ready to make debut and take baseball by storm, they had stable of young pitchers all ready to be future aces.  Everything was looking up, but nothing seemed to work out.  Javy Baez had only a 93 OPS+, Spencer Torkelson bounced between AAA and the big leagues while barely hitting .200, and their other former #1 overall pick in Casey Mize only started 2 games before getting injured.  The only thing that seemed to go right was Miguel Cabrera was able to celebrate his 3000th hit.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers had a fairly quiet offseason with some potentially sneaky good moves.  The main moves they made brought in veteran starters Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen to round out the rotation and replace other veterans like Drew Hutchison.  The main departures were catcher Tucker Barnhart, third baseman Jeimer Candelario, and reliever Gregory Soto.

Most Important Hitter

Spencer Torkelson

When you take a player with the #1 overall draft pick, you expect an All Star pretty soon after he takes the field for the first time at the big league level.  Although it's still early, so far the Tigers have whiffed on two recent top picks.  Casey Mize, the #1 overall pick in 2018 has yet to do much in 3 seasons (and will probably miss most, if not all, of 2023 with Tommy John).  Then there's Spencer Torkelson.  The top overall pick in 2020 out of Arizona State, Torkelson was supposed to be ready to hit at the big league level the second he arrived.  Instead, he struggled to adjust to big league pitching with only a 77 OPS+ in 110 games.  If the Tigers are going to take a step forward, Torkelson needs to be an All Star caliber hitter.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Manning

The Tigers went from having a potential core of young aces to a starting rotation of mostly veterans.  They need at least one of their young starters to take a huge step forward in 2023.  The most likely to break out is Matt Manning.  In 2022, Manning only started 12 games but pitched well with a 3.43 ERA and a 111 ERA+.  This season is set up perfectly for Manning to have a big year.

Prospect to Watch

Wilmer Flores

If the name sounds familiar, there's a reason.  His brother has the same name and has been an infielder in the big leagues for years.  This version of Wilmer Flores is a big 6'4" right hander that looks about ready to make an impact in a big league rotation and be the latest Tigers pitching phenom to try and be their next ace.  Ranked #95 on MLB's Top 100 prospects, Flores is the last of 3 to make the list.  Although they don't have anyone in the top 50, the Tigers have a pretty deep farm system (which is pretty easy to have when they have this bad for this long).

2023 Prediction

5th in AL Central

I've given up hope on the Tigers.  Too many times over the last few seasons I have predicted the Tigers to make the big leap forward and be a breakout team (last year, I pick them 2nd in the division ... 2ND!!!).  Every year they disappoint me.  I'm done picking them.  No matter what top tier talent they have breaking out this year, they can never figure it out, even in one of the least competitive divisions in baseball.  Now with the balanced schedule, it's going to be even harder for a team like the Tigers to be good.  I hope they surprise me, but I'm not picking the breakout season again until I see signs they are even going to get better.

Fearless Prediction

A.J. Hinch will be fired mid-season.

Before the 2021 season, A.J. Hinch was hired after his year long suspension from the Astros sign stealing scandal to do for the Tigers what he did for the Astros (not the sign stealing, the winning of a World Series).  However, since he arrived, the Tigers have been going backwards.  If 2023 goes the way I see it going, it's obvious the Hinch hire isn't working.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

 #23

The Detroit Tigers are a young up-and-coming roster that looks poised to take a leap in 2021.  Will it be enough to be players in the AL Central this season?

2020 Predictions

#29 - 5th in AL Central

MIH - Jonathan Schoop

MIP - Matthew Boyd

PTW - Casey Mize

FP - Miguel Cabrera will retire at the end of the 2020 season.

2020 Result

#28 - 23-35, 5th in AL Central

I had the Tigers' season pretty well prognosticated last year.  They were still a young roster that needed to grow up a little more.  One thing I did not get right is Miguel Cabrera is still around as a veteran presence in the clubhouse.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers made minor tweaks to their roster getting ready for the 2021 season.  They brought in Jose Urena from the Marlins to help their rotation and Robbie Grossman to give professional at bats from the outfield.  The rest of the roster is mainly young players needing experience.  The biggest move made that could have a huge impact is the hire of AJ Hinch to replace the retiring Ron Gardenhire.

Most Important Hitter

Jeimer Candelario

The best player in terms of WAR for the Tigers last season was Jeimer Candelario, ending the season with almost a .300 average and a 135 OPS+.  Entering his age 27 season, this could be just the start of his prime.  For a team looking to show some progress in 2021, they are looking for who will be the heart of their future core.  If Candelario repeats the production of 2020, he could become a face of this next wave of Tigers success.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Fulmer

Michael Fulmer's career couldn't have gotten off to a stronger start.  He won Rookie of the Year in 2016, then made the All Star Team in 2017.  Then in 2018 he got hurt, and it knocked out his entire 2019 season.  He came back in 2020 and was far less than what he was before the injury.  Now with another year removed, he needs to get his career back on track, either to be a veteran arm anchoring a young rotation or to be a trade chip at the Trade Deadline.

Prospect to Watch

Tarik Skubal

The Tigers have built up a strong farm system, boasting five players in the top 25 best prospects in baseball.  Three of those prospects are pitchers that should all be in the Tigers' rotation by the end of the 2021 season.  Although Casey Mize gets a lot of the headlines as a former #1 overall pick, Tarik Skubal might be the more impressive.  Getting drafted in the 9th round of the same draft that produced Mize, Skubal is a big lefty with a fastball that comes close to triple digits.  He was able to log some innings in 2020 with mixed success.  Look for 2021 to be a breakout year for Skubal, Mize, and the third of their three-headed prospect monster in Matt Manning.

2021 Predictions

4th in AL Central

I see the Tigers taking a huge step forward in 2021.  Moving out of the cellar doesn't sound like a big move, but the AL Central has quietly become one of the deepest divisions in baseball.  The addition of AJ Hinch as manager is huge as he has already shown the ability to take a team ready to break out over the top in Houston.  You add to that the potential of an elite big 3 emerging at the top of their rotation, and this is going to be a team contenders are not going to want to face in September.

Fearless Predictions

Miguel Cabrera will become a 3000/500 hitter in 2021.

In one year, my thoughts on the role of Miguel Cabrera has completely shifted.  Before last season, I viewed Miggy as a relic of a bygone era that was on his way out.  Now I see the future Hall of Famer as a veteran presence in a lineup and clubhouse that only has two projected starters over the age of 30 (Cabrera at 38 and Matthew Boyd at 30).  This has the potential of being a huge year for Cabrera if he can stay healthy.  He needs 134 hits to reach the magical 3000 hit plateau and 13 homers to get to the magical 500 home run mark.  He would be only the 7th player to ever reach both numbers.  If he gets both this year, this could be an exclamation point on an all-time great career.  For many reasons, this should be an exciting season in Detroit.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#29

The Detroit Tigers had been flirting with 100 losses in 2017 and 2018 before finally crossing the line and becoming the worst in baseball in 2019.  There are also only 3 or 4 players left from their roster the last time they were good as they have been stockpiling young talent.  Will 2020 see improvement or more cellar-dwelling?

2019 Predictions

#27 - 4th in AL Central

MIH: Nicholas Castellanos

MIP: Michael Fulmer

PTW: Alex Faedo

FP: Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.

2019 Results

#30 - 47-114, 5th in AL Central

Going into the 2019 season, it felt like there was some stiff competition for the cellar of the AL Central between the Tigers and the Royals.  I didn't expect the Tigers to bottom out quite like they did.  Castellanos and Fulmer held so much importance last season for their trade value.  Castellanos did indeed get traded while Fulmer ended up having Tommy John surgery before the season even started.  Even with Fulmer's injury, the pitching performed okay in 2019 (which isn't a huge accomplishment in spacious Comerica Park).  It was the offense that failed them.  The team posted an overall OPS+ of 78 (100 is league average), with only Castellanos posting a total above average at 105, while only three of the team's top 12 players in terms of WAR were position players (one of which was Castellanos who didn't even play the whole season in Detroit).  My Prospect to Watch failed me as well as Alex Faedo, who was drafted as a potentially MLB-ready battle-tested college arm, struggled to regain the form that made him the ace of a College World Series winning team.

Additions / Subtractions

It's easy to compare the Tigers and Orioles right now as they both are going through some difficult rebuilding years.  However, what makes the Tigers different is they are willing to try and bring in some veterans on one year deals to hold spots for some of the young kids coming up, mentor them along the way, and perhaps be flipped at the Trade Deadline if they have a decent season.  This year's crop of players brought into Detroit include C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Cameron Maybin, Austin Romine, and Ivan Nova.  Guys like Cron and Schoop actually are still quality players that could bring some real value to the team.

Most Important Hitter

Jonathan Schoop

Honestly, there isn't much interesting or exciting about this lineup outside of the veterans.  Niko Goodrum is really the only homegrown talent in the lineup that has been able to make a mark in the big leagues as one of the better utility men.  So when picking the important hitter, I am going with the most interesting hitter, and that is Jonathan Schoop.  Like I said before, he can bring some real value to the Tigers.  Only three years removed from being an All Star in 2017, he has had a roller coaster career since, being traded into a platoon in 2018 before regaining a little of his old form in Minnesota in 2019.  Now he is in Detroit as a seasoned veteran mid-season trade chip, even though he is just entering his age 28 season.  Is he the All Star of 2017?  Is he the player that will struggle to find the field he was in 2018?  Or is he somewhere in between like he was in 2019?  It is also the first time he will really be looked at as a potential leader on his team.  I am fascinated to see where how this season plays out for Schoop.

Most Important Pitcher

Matthew Boyd

Last year was a disappointment in a lot of ways for the Tigers, but their best player (at least their best player that was still on the roster at the end of the season) was Matthew Boyd.  The lefty quickly became the ace of their pitching staff and became one of the few bright spots for the Tigers throughout the season.  In fact, the most surprising thing about him might have been the fact that he was never traded.  He was at the heart of many trade rumors and continues to be as the 2020 season gets ready to begin.  Only entering his age 29 season and under club control through 2023, as long as Boyd stays healthy he will be one of the most sought after pitchers on the market when the contenders are looking to upgrade at the Trade Deadline.  You might ask why the Tigers would be willing to trade their young ace when they are trying to rebuild.  The answer is simple ... they have several future aces about to burst on the scene in their farm system.

Prospect to Watch

Casey Mize

One positive about being terrible for an extended period of time and trading away all your top veterans is you build a really good farm system.  Last year's Prospect to Watch, Alex Faedo, now can barely hang on in the top 10 prospects in the Tigers' system.  The Tigers have four players in the Top 100 Prospects, with all of them appearing in the top 50.  Three of those four are pitchers, with Casey Mize being the best of the group.  The 2018 number one overall selection in the draft out of Auburn is the top player in the Tigers' system and the #7 prospect in all of baseball.  With an upper-90's fastball and an elite splitter, Mize has the makeup to be the Tigers' ace for the next decade.  Last season, he topped out in AA.  The potentially truncated 2020 season might delay his big league debut a year, but waiting for him, and fellow top pitching prospect Matt Manning, to splash on the scene is one of the few things Tigers fans have to be excited about.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL Central

The Tigers and the Orioles have been two of the worst teams in baseball over the last three season, and this season isn't going to change that fact.  The only reason I am putting the Tigers above the Orioles is because they brought in some more impact veterans and have their top prospects potentially debuting and having an impact this season.  With all that said, the Tigers are not going to be ready to compete until 2022 or 2023.

Fearless Prediction

Miguel Cabrera will retire at the end of the 2020 season.

One of the last holdovers from the Tigers' glory days is Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters of this generation, winning the Triple Crown in 2012, and an easy first ballot Hall of Famer.  However, he is now entering his age 37 season, and his body has broken down so much that he can't really do anything but DH.  Even with that, last year he only totaled 12 home runs and 59 RBI's while posting an OPS+ of 96, making him now a below average hitter.  It is hard to see the greats hold on too long, and I'm afraid Miggy already has.  This really could be his last season, especially if the injury bug hits him yet again, however there are three reasons he might stick around longer.  First, he is 185 hits shy of 3000, a total he can reach by the end of 2021 if he stays healthy.  Second, he is 23 home runs shy of 500, which again is attainable by the end of 2021.  Third, the Tigers are committed to pay him over $30 million per year through 2023.  So there's that.