2021 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

 #23

The Detroit Tigers are a young up-and-coming roster that looks poised to take a leap in 2021.  Will it be enough to be players in the AL Central this season?

2020 Predictions

#29 - 5th in AL Central

MIH - Jonathan Schoop

MIP - Matthew Boyd

PTW - Casey Mize

FP - Miguel Cabrera will retire at the end of the 2020 season.

2020 Result

#28 - 23-35, 5th in AL Central

I had the Tigers' season pretty well prognosticated last year.  They were still a young roster that needed to grow up a little more.  One thing I did not get right is Miguel Cabrera is still around as a veteran presence in the clubhouse.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers made minor tweaks to their roster getting ready for the 2021 season.  They brought in Jose Urena from the Marlins to help their rotation and Robbie Grossman to give professional at bats from the outfield.  The rest of the roster is mainly young players needing experience.  The biggest move made that could have a huge impact is the hire of AJ Hinch to replace the retiring Ron Gardenhire.

Most Important Hitter

Jeimer Candelario

The best player in terms of WAR for the Tigers last season was Jeimer Candelario, ending the season with almost a .300 average and a 135 OPS+.  Entering his age 27 season, this could be just the start of his prime.  For a team looking to show some progress in 2021, they are looking for who will be the heart of their future core.  If Candelario repeats the production of 2020, he could become a face of this next wave of Tigers success.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Fulmer

Michael Fulmer's career couldn't have gotten off to a stronger start.  He won Rookie of the Year in 2016, then made the All Star Team in 2017.  Then in 2018 he got hurt, and it knocked out his entire 2019 season.  He came back in 2020 and was far less than what he was before the injury.  Now with another year removed, he needs to get his career back on track, either to be a veteran arm anchoring a young rotation or to be a trade chip at the Trade Deadline.

Prospect to Watch

Tarik Skubal

The Tigers have built up a strong farm system, boasting five players in the top 25 best prospects in baseball.  Three of those prospects are pitchers that should all be in the Tigers' rotation by the end of the 2021 season.  Although Casey Mize gets a lot of the headlines as a former #1 overall pick, Tarik Skubal might be the more impressive.  Getting drafted in the 9th round of the same draft that produced Mize, Skubal is a big lefty with a fastball that comes close to triple digits.  He was able to log some innings in 2020 with mixed success.  Look for 2021 to be a breakout year for Skubal, Mize, and the third of their three-headed prospect monster in Matt Manning.

2021 Predictions

4th in AL Central

I see the Tigers taking a huge step forward in 2021.  Moving out of the cellar doesn't sound like a big move, but the AL Central has quietly become one of the deepest divisions in baseball.  The addition of AJ Hinch as manager is huge as he has already shown the ability to take a team ready to break out over the top in Houston.  You add to that the potential of an elite big 3 emerging at the top of their rotation, and this is going to be a team contenders are not going to want to face in September.

Fearless Predictions

Miguel Cabrera will become a 3000/500 hitter in 2021.

In one year, my thoughts on the role of Miguel Cabrera has completely shifted.  Before last season, I viewed Miggy as a relic of a bygone era that was on his way out.  Now I see the future Hall of Famer as a veteran presence in a lineup and clubhouse that only has two projected starters over the age of 30 (Cabrera at 38 and Matthew Boyd at 30).  This has the potential of being a huge year for Cabrera if he can stay healthy.  He needs 134 hits to reach the magical 3000 hit plateau and 13 homers to get to the magical 500 home run mark.  He would be only the 7th player to ever reach both numbers.  If he gets both this year, this could be an exclamation point on an all-time great career.  For many reasons, this should be an exciting season in Detroit.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#27

The Detroit Tigers are definitely in a rebuild mode in the weakest division in baseball.  Can they take advantage of the poor division and be a surprise this season?

My 2018 Predictions

5th in AL Central

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

2018 Results

64-98, 3rd in AL Central

Your division must be pretty bad if you almost get 100 losses and still finish third in your division.  Manager Ron Gardenhire's first season in Detroit wasn't spectacular, but it looks like he is steering it in the right direction.  As for my fearless prediction, it somehow came true.  After a season that truly showed that Victor Martinez had nothing left in the tank, he walked away from the game with a great farewell gesture about one week before the end of the season.  It was a fitting end for a great player that will have a fascinating argument for Cooperstown in five years.

Additions / Subtractions

Outside of the Victor Martinez retirement, there were only a few subtractions.  Catcher James McCann, pitcher Francisco Liriano, and shortstop Jose Iglesias hit free agency and went elsewhere.  They replaced them with some short term veteran players to fill in the gap while they wait for some of their prospects to develop.  So in comes shortstop Jordy Mercer, super utilityman Josh Harrison, and starters Tyson Ross and Matt Moore.  All of these players are just looking for an opportunity to show that they still have some value to teams who might be looking for help at the Trade Deadline.

Most Important Hitter

Nicholas Castellanos

There are only a few players left from the previous Tiger core that can still have some value on the trade market.  Possibly the most notable of these is Nicholas Castellanos.  Even through the lean years in Detroit, he has been a model of consistency, putting up solid season after solid season.  This will only be his age 27 season, and he will not be a free agent until after the 2020 season.  This Trade Deadline would be the ideal time to move him, but he has to prove he can continue his All Star caliber play to make the most impact on the market.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Fulmer

A year younger than Castellanos, Michael Fulmer has been an anchor to the Tiger rotation since he broke into the league in 2016 as the Rookie of the Year.  He followed it up with an All Star appearance in 2017, but 2018 was disappointing as he fell below average (according to ERA+) for the first time in his career.  Fulmer, like Castellanos, has been rumored to be a trade chip for quite awhile.  He has to return to All Star form for Fulmer to be valuable to the Tigers on the trade market.

Prospect to Watch

Alex Faedo

The reason the Tigers might be eager to move on from Michael Fulmer is their farm system.  The Tigers have five right handed starters listed in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball that are set to break into the big leagues in the next couple seasons, including Casey Mize, last year's number one overall pick.  The pitcher out of this group most likely to make his debut and have an impact in 2019 is Alex Faedo, the Tigers' first round pick from 2017.  The 23 year old pitcher out of Florida made it to AA in his first full season of pro ball in 2018.  If he continues on this fast track to the big leagues, look or him to be in the Tigers' rotation by the end of the season.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The Tigers are still a couple years away from being relevant, but they are on the way back and will at least be interesting.  Their farm system will be slowly bringing their new core along over the next couple seasons.  Until then, Tiger fans will have to instead ask themselves questions like, "Will Miguel Cabrera stay healthy enough to play the whole season?"  And people wonder why teams are now hesitant to sign players to the mega deals...

Fearless Prediction

Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.

The Tigers have an outstanding farm system when it comes to pitching, but they are lacking the studs offensively.  If you aren't planning on these two being a part of the plan in this next wave, the sooner you trade them the better.  There is no reason for either of these two to have bad years, which means their trade value should be as high as it will ever be come the Trade Deadline.  Move on and keep going on the rebuild.