2019 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#27

The Detroit Tigers are definitely in a rebuild mode in the weakest division in baseball.  Can they take advantage of the poor division and be a surprise this season?

My 2018 Predictions

5th in AL Central

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

2018 Results

64-98, 3rd in AL Central

Your division must be pretty bad if you almost get 100 losses and still finish third in your division.  Manager Ron Gardenhire's first season in Detroit wasn't spectacular, but it looks like he is steering it in the right direction.  As for my fearless prediction, it somehow came true.  After a season that truly showed that Victor Martinez had nothing left in the tank, he walked away from the game with a great farewell gesture about one week before the end of the season.  It was a fitting end for a great player that will have a fascinating argument for Cooperstown in five years.

Additions / Subtractions

Outside of the Victor Martinez retirement, there were only a few subtractions.  Catcher James McCann, pitcher Francisco Liriano, and shortstop Jose Iglesias hit free agency and went elsewhere.  They replaced them with some short term veteran players to fill in the gap while they wait for some of their prospects to develop.  So in comes shortstop Jordy Mercer, super utilityman Josh Harrison, and starters Tyson Ross and Matt Moore.  All of these players are just looking for an opportunity to show that they still have some value to teams who might be looking for help at the Trade Deadline.

Most Important Hitter

Nicholas Castellanos

There are only a few players left from the previous Tiger core that can still have some value on the trade market.  Possibly the most notable of these is Nicholas Castellanos.  Even through the lean years in Detroit, he has been a model of consistency, putting up solid season after solid season.  This will only be his age 27 season, and he will not be a free agent until after the 2020 season.  This Trade Deadline would be the ideal time to move him, but he has to prove he can continue his All Star caliber play to make the most impact on the market.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Fulmer

A year younger than Castellanos, Michael Fulmer has been an anchor to the Tiger rotation since he broke into the league in 2016 as the Rookie of the Year.  He followed it up with an All Star appearance in 2017, but 2018 was disappointing as he fell below average (according to ERA+) for the first time in his career.  Fulmer, like Castellanos, has been rumored to be a trade chip for quite awhile.  He has to return to All Star form for Fulmer to be valuable to the Tigers on the trade market.

Prospect to Watch

Alex Faedo

The reason the Tigers might be eager to move on from Michael Fulmer is their farm system.  The Tigers have five right handed starters listed in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball that are set to break into the big leagues in the next couple seasons, including Casey Mize, last year's number one overall pick.  The pitcher out of this group most likely to make his debut and have an impact in 2019 is Alex Faedo, the Tigers' first round pick from 2017.  The 23 year old pitcher out of Florida made it to AA in his first full season of pro ball in 2018.  If he continues on this fast track to the big leagues, look or him to be in the Tigers' rotation by the end of the season.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The Tigers are still a couple years away from being relevant, but they are on the way back and will at least be interesting.  Their farm system will be slowly bringing their new core along over the next couple seasons.  Until then, Tiger fans will have to instead ask themselves questions like, "Will Miguel Cabrera stay healthy enough to play the whole season?"  And people wonder why teams are now hesitant to sign players to the mega deals...

Fearless Prediction

Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.

The Tigers have an outstanding farm system when it comes to pitching, but they are lacking the studs offensively.  If you aren't planning on these two being a part of the plan in this next wave, the sooner you trade them the better.  There is no reason for either of these two to have bad years, which means their trade value should be as high as it will ever be come the Trade Deadline.  Move on and keep going on the rebuild.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had three straight 2nd place finishes in the NL Central, which have led to three straight appearances in the NL Wild Card Game.  Will 2016 break the trend?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

2015 Result: 98-64, 2nd in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Game

Only one team finished with a better record than the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015.  Unfortunately, that team was in their division.  Then, for the second year in a row, they ran into the hottest pitcher in the league and were completely shut down in their one game playoff.  It was quite an anticlimactic ending for a team that almost won 100 games.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

For the first time in awhile, the Pirates actually made some changes to their core group this offseason.  Neil Walker was traded to the Mets for Jon Niese, and Pedro Alvarez wasn't re-signed in favor of a John Jaso / Mike Morse platoon at first.  Ryan Vogelsong was also brought in to add some rotation depth, and just yesterday, David Freese was signed to provide another infield option while Jung Ho Kang gets healthy.  It wasn't a lot of moves, but for a team that usually does nothing, it was an active offseason.

Most Important Hitter

Andrew McCutchen

I rarely say that a team's best player is their most important player going into the season.  However, Andrew McCutchen truly fits the bill in this case.  Cutch had a "down" year in 2015 as he started to be overshadowed by his outfield mates Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco.  If the Pirates want to get over the hump and make a serious postseason run, McCutchen has to get back to his MVP-caliber form and show why the Marte-McCutchen-Polanco outfield is the best in baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Niese

Jon Niese successfully improved his overall value with a very strong run out of the Mets' bullpen through the 2015 postseason.  That led to the Mets selling high and the Pirates buying high on Niese.  Now the Pirates need him to show that he can carry over that momentum into the starting rotation in 2016.  If he struggles, the second-guessing will dominate the conversation.

Player to Watch

Tyler Glasnow

With question marks around Niese and Vogelsong at the back end of the rotation, the future might be now for some Pirate prospects in 2016.  Tyler Glasnow is the brightest of those future stars.  He almost made an appearance down the stretch last season like Steven Matz did for the Mets, but instead they chose to move him along a little slower.  Look for him to make his big league debut as soon as someone has to miss a start.  Also, don't be surprised to also see the injury-plagued former top prospect Jameson Taillon reach the big leagues at some point too.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

New season, same result for the Pirates.  There is just something about this team that seems to keep them from getting over the hump.  It seems the Pirates are really good at being really good while the other contenders around them are finding ways to be great.  They will have another outstanding season, but they will come up short once again.

Fearless Prediction

Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen will switch positions by the end of 2016.

Many experts have been claiming for several years now that the Pirates' best centerfielder has been player leftfield.  With McCutchen's injuries and slight decline, I could see the Pirates try this theory by moving Marte to center to relieve some wear and tear on the former MVP.  It doesn't matter how they line up, they are still the best outfield in baseball.