2021 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #20

The Miami Marlins were the surprise of the 2020 season, fighting through COVID issues to somehow make the playoffs and even win a series.  Was that a crazy 60 game anomaly, or are the Marlins ready to be a perennial contender?

2020 Predictions

#22 - 5th in NL East

MIH - Brian Anderson

MIP - Sandy Alcantara

PTW - Jesus Sanchez

FP - The Marlins will win a World Series in the next 5 years.

2020 Results

#14 - 31-29, 2nd in NL East, lost in NLDS

As you can tell by my Fearless Prediction from last year, I could see some Miami Marlins success coming soon, but no one saw it coming this soon.  The Marlins also dealt with most COVID issues of any club in the league, yet through all that they made made a postseason run thanks to the expanded playoff setup last year that allowed all 2nd place finishers a spot in the tournament.  There has never been a more deserving Manager of the Year award handed out than Don Mattingly in 2020.

Additions / Subtractions

The Marlins roster looks practically the same in 2021 as it did at the end of 2020.  There was some turnover in the bullpen as there is with every club.  Jose Urena, their Opening Day starter in 2018, was allowed to walk.  They also brought in Adam Duvall to man a corner outfield spot.  Other than that, the roster looks roughly the same.  The biggest news the Marlins made over the offseason was the hiring of their new GM, Kim Ng.  She is the first woman to hold that role in MLB so there will definitely be a spotlight on her and the decisions around this roster this season.

Most Important Hitter

Starling Marte

In 2020, the Marlins actually found themselves as buyers at the Trade Deadline and made an incredibly savvy move by acquiring Starling Marte from the Diamondbacks.  Instantly, his presence in the lineup made it feel more legitimate.  It wasn't just a group of kids anymore.  Moving into 2021, Marte will serve that same role of being a quality veteran presence in the heart of the lineup and also provide the leadership needed for the upcoming young core.

Most Important Pitcher

Sixto Sanchez

It's rare that a player that still has his rookie status is the most important player on a club, but that is the case for Sixto Sanchez.  A highly regarded prospect and the centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto trade to the Phillies, Sanchez made his debut in late August and in only 7 stars, he worked his way up to being 3rd on the team in WAR and was the #2 starter during the Marlins' playoff run behind ace Sandy Alcantara.  Now the Marlins need Sanchez to make the jump from phenom to established dominant ace at the top of their rotation.  It's a lot to ask for a kid only entering his age 22 season, but he has the stuff to do it.

Prospect to Watch

Jazz Chisholm

The Marlins currently have 5 players (including Sixto Sanchez) in MLB's Top 100 Prospects list.  Although Sixto is still technically a prospect, the most exciting rookie to watch this season for the Marlins might be Jazz Chisholm.  Ranked the 66th best prospect in baseball, Jazz played in 21 games for the Marlins last season with marginal success.  Now he is slated to be their starting 2nd baseman on Opening Day.  He has all the tools to be a star with the personality (and the name) to go along with it.  He will be a fun watch for this young and exciting team moving forward.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL East

I know the Marlins finished 2nd last year.  I know they are a team on the rise.  I know everything is moving in the right direction for this franchise that has often struggled to do that.  The problem is this is, in 2021, the most competitive division I can remember.  In this division, you have four other teams that have built super rosters and are fully committed to winning right now.  In a full 162 game season, I don't see the Marlins overtaking any of the other four.

Fearless Prediction

2021 will be the last time the Miami Marlins finish in the cellar of the NL East for the next decade.

Like I said, the Marlins are moving in the right direction and are very close to breaking out into an elite team.  2021 is not the time, but in the next few years they will be hitting their peak.  Behind Kim Ng and CEO Derek Jeter, look for the Marlins to have sustainable success moving forward.  Who would've thought this was possible after they traded away Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto just a few short years ago.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#27

The Arizona Diamondbacks had a disappointing season in 2020, leading to the team being sellers instead of buyers at the Trade Deadline.  Will 2021 be a bounce back year for the D-Backs?

2020 Predictions

#8 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH - Starling Marte

MIP - Robbie Ray

PTW - J.B. Bukauskas

2020 Results

#25 - 25-35, 5th in NL West

Every year, there are one or two teams I whiff pretty badly on.  Last year, the Diamondbacks might have been the team I missed the worst.  I took a stab thinking they could be a surprise team to reach the Divisional Series in the NL.  Instead, they missed the playoffs, even with them expanded by almost double the teams.  The Diamondbacks made the choice to jump into the sellers market when few were ready to give up on the season.  My Most Important Hitter and Pitcher for the team last season were both traded to contenders at the deadline, as well as closer Archie Bradley and setup man Andrew Chafin.  This dropped the D-Backs down to the cellar of the NL West.

Additions / Subtractions

The most significant moves the Diamondbacks made were the moves made at last year's Trade Deadline.  The returning lineup is almost identical to how they ended the year, with the signing of veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera being the only semi-significant move.  Their pitching staff is fairly untouched as well, with veteran arm Joakim Soria being the only significant addition.

Most Important Hitter

Ketel Marte

One of the biggest surprises for the Diamondbacks over the last few seasons has been the emergence of Ketel Marte.  This 2B/SS/CF started to break out in 2018, then finished 4th in MVP voting in 2019 showing he was one of the brightest stars to watch across the league.  Marte's 2020 season was solid, but definitely saw a drop off from the production of the previous two seasons.  The D-Backs need to see Marte bounce back to his All Star level if the current group is going to have any success in 2021.

Most Important Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner

The Diamondbacks made a splash before the 2020 season when they signed the man, the myth, the legend, Madison Bumgarner.  However, his production in 2020 was less than stellar, finishing the shortened season with a negative WAR and a 6.48 ERA.  The Diamondbacks have some great young pitching, but MadBum needs to be their leader.  He is only entering his age 31 season, but all the work he put in while fighting for championships in San Francisco may have left him with not many bullets left.

Prospect to Watch

Geraldo Perdomo

The Diamondbacks do have some exciting young talent coming up through their system.  The one most likely to make a splash in 2021 is shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.  This 21 year-old is the best defender in the D-Backs system.  He is also a switch hitter that can hold his own at the plate.  Ranked the 79th best prospect in all of baseball, there may be some space for him to make his debut around the infield at some point in 2021.

2021 Prediction

4th in NL West

The Diamondbacks made a clear decision last season to take a step back.  Now they are not into a full rebuild, but they are stuck in a division with two of the most stacked rosters in all of baseball.  They (and the Rockies for that matter) are set up to be a doormat in 2021 and end up with a lower record than their talent might otherwise warrant.

Fearless Prediction

Madison Bumgarner will be not be on the Diamondbacks roster at the start of 2022.

The Diamondbacks have stripped back almost all commitments to veteran players recently in an effort to get younger and possibly open up a window later on down the road when it might be a little easier to win the division.  The last one left is MadBum.  If he shows flashes in 2021 that he is back, look for the Diamondbacks to try and unload him in a similar move to what they did for Zack Greinke a few years ago.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#23

The Pittsburgh Pirates had another productive season in 2018.  With the NL Central becoming the most competitive division in baseball, will the Pirates be able to repeat the success that has defined their team in recent years?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL Central

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

2018 Results

82-79, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates had a competitive season in 2018, finishing above .500 for the first time since 2015, competing for a Wild Card spot well into September.  This was quite an accomplishment considering their ace, Gerrit Cole, and their face, Andrew McCutchen, both moved on before the season.  However, the depth of the NL Central left the Pirates in 4th place.  Instead of trying to gather more talent and trading a stud like Marte, they went the other direction and gave up prospects to bring in a new ace in Chris Archer.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest addition for the Pirates in 2019 was the trade for Archer at the Deadline in 2018.  Speaking strictly offseason, the Pirates were extremely quiet.  Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison, mainstays in the middle infield for most of the last decade, both signed with the Detroit Tigers in free agency.  Harrison was replaced at 2nd internally with Adam Frazier.  Mercer will be replaced by Erik Gonzalez, a 27 year old shortstop acquired in a low level trade this offseason from the Indians.  The only other significant move the Pirates made was bringing in Lonnie Chisenhall as a utility guy.

Most Important Hitter

Josh Bell

Josh Bell was an elite prospect when he made his debut for the Pirates in 2016.  Now he is entering his third full season at the age of 26.  After a solid 2017, Bell took a step back in 2018 with only 12 home runs and 62 RBI's.  Bell is starting to graduate into veteran territory this season, and he needs to get back on track to being the top slugger his talent shows he can be.  If that happens, he will be an important anchor in the middle of the Pirates order.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

The Pirates paid a high price for Chris Archer last season even though he was in the middle of his worst season as a professional, finishing with an ERA+ below average for the first time in his career.  The Pirates were banking on the idea that this was an anomaly and not a trend.  Archer has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he is also entering his age 30 season.  He needs to show he is still elite and not on the decline.  If he bounces back, this was a great trade.  If not, this might go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history considering what they gave up to get him.

Prospect to Watch

Ke'Bryan Hayes

The Pirates have a decent farm system, stocked with even more pitching help to make their rotation elite.  However, the best hitter in their farm system is third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, the son of former big leaguer Charlie Hayes.  This 22 year old hit right around .300 in AA last season and has a chance to make an impact down the stretch in 2019 at a position that is not a strength for the Pirates right now.  Either way, he is their third baseman of the future.

2019 Prediction

5th in NL Central

I feel there are tiers in baseball this year.  There are about 8 to 10 teams that are elite and about 7 teams that won't be that competitive (the ones already profiled).  The rest of the league is in the middle, fighting for that last playoff spot or two.  I see the Pirates as that dividing line.  They will probably hover right around .500 again and flirt with a playoff berth again.  However, this division will be so competitive, .500 might put them in the cellar.  The Reds are one of the most improved teams in the league, and the three teams above them are not going anywhere.  It may be another successful disappointment in Pittsburgh in 2019.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Clint Hurdle's last season managing the Pirates.

Clint Hurdle is about as good of a baseball guy as you will find.  However, something feels like there is a clock ticking in Pittsburgh with him.  If they do indeed finish in the cellar this season, regardless of record, I can see a scenario where he either is fired or chooses to walk away from the team.  He has definitely brought a new level of success to Pittsburgh, but they have never been able to get over the hump to being elite.  Maybe it would be time for a fresh perspective.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#24

The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken steps backward in the last few seasons.  Will some recent roster moves lead to more success in 2018?

2017 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Andrew McCutchen will be traded by the end of the year.

2017 Results

75-87, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates' season seemed to be derailed before it even started when Starling Marte was suspended for 80 games with a PED positive test.  Also, Jung Ho Kang, their Most Important Hitter pre-season last year, never played a game for the Pirates as he couldn't secure a work visa to return to the US.  This all started them down a path where they never really competed all season.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I may have just been a little premature.

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates appeared to try and reset their roster a little bit this offseason, trading away two of their most productive players from their postseason runs.  Andrew McCutchen is now a Giant, and Gerrit Cole has joined the World Champion Astros.  The only experienced players that have been added to the roster are outfielder Corey Dickerson and pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Crick.  These are not really names that are going to excite fans considering what left.

Most Important Hitter

Starling Marte

This is a big year for Starling Marte for many reasons.  First, he is the biggest established star left on the Pirates' roster.  There are some emerging stars like Gregory Polanco or Josh Bell, but Marte is still the best player.  Also, Marte has some redeeming to do after last season and his suspension.  He needs to prove his production was for real and that he can be counted on and trusted moving forward.  Lastly, the Pirates organization is probably looking at Marte this year and deciding whether he will be a centerpiece of the franchise moving forward or will he be another player to be moved for more prospects.  With all these factors in mind, it is a huge year for Starling Marte.

Most Important Pitcher

Jameson Taillon

Finally, the Pirates were able to see a full season from Jameson Taillon in the big leagues in 2017!  A top prospect derailed by a myriad of health issues, Taillon finally got to start what everyone still hopes will be a promising career.  In 2017, Taillon was an average starting pitcher.  In 2018, he will be asked to start progressing into the star everyone hopes he will be.  The Pirates are banking on their new look team to be anchored by a bright young pitching staff.  Taillon, along with Tyler Glasnow, will be asked to be the anchors of that.

Prospect to Watch

Mitch Keller

The next arm to join the young Pirates rotation will be 21 year old Mitch Keller.  A former 2nd round pick from 2014, Keller is the 15th best prospect in all of baseball with a potential of being an ace to be counted on moving forward.  If the Pirates are able to establish Taillon, Glasnow, and Keller as the phenoms they can be, the Pirates rotation will be regarded similarly to how we talked about the Mets a few years ago.

2018 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The cupboard isn't bare, but they are definitely taking a giant intentional step back in 2018.  They still have some young emerging stars and a strong pitching staff, but they are looking at the top three in this division, realizing they can't compete with them, and re-tooling to fight another day.  Look for them to be a postseason factor again in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

Including team options, Marte is under contract through 2021 on a very club-friendly deal.  However, by the time the Pirates are looking to compete again in a couple years, Marte's contract will be ready to expire.  He is most valuable to them right now: an All Star player in his prime with club control that is ready to help a team now.  They could get a pretty large package back for him that could set them up moving forward.  It would also clear space for top prospect Austin Meadows to crack the big league lineup.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#16

For the first time since 2012, the Pittsburgh Pirates were left out of the postseason party.  Will 2017 bring a return trip to October baseball?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen will switch positions by the end of 2016.

2016 Results

78-83, 3rd in NL Central

With a team as talented as this Pittsburgh Pirates team, I figured they would make a return trip to the playoffs.  Due to some struggles in their pitching staff, and an extremely strong top of the division, they came up short for the first time in three years.  Another reason for the slight decline for the Pirates was the decline of Andrew McCutchen.  For years, experts have said Andrew McCutchen was not the best centerfielder on his team.  After a true struggle defensively in 2016, my prediction came true.  It just came true later than I thought.  McCutchen is moving to right, Gregory Polanco is moving to left, and Starling Marte is taking his rightful place in center.

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates made very few moves this offseason.  After trading Mark Melancon at the Deadline last year, and losing a couple veteran starters in free agency, the roster is pretty much set.  No free agency moves, no trades (despite a lot of talk about trading Andrew McCutchen).  They are counting on their farm system to fill any holes they may have had.

Most Important Hitter

Jung Ho Kang

Despite a broken leg that ended his 2015 season, Jung Ho Kang has had two very productive seasons in the big leagues.  However, he has yet to have a full season.  This season appears to be no different as the Pirates' third baseman is stuck in Korea having trouble obtaining a work visa after an offseason arrest in his homeland.  The Pirates are hoping he makes it back by Opening Day, but there is no guarantee he plays in the big leagues at all this season.  He has been a borderline All Star the last two seasons.  They need him in the lineup to compete.

Most Important Pitcher

Gerrit Cole

The former first overall pick in the draft had a season that lived up to expectations in 2015 as he made the All Star Team and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.  However, 2016 was disappointing as his ERA was over a run higher than the year before.  Cole needs to get back to the elite level he showed in 2015.  If he doesn't, the Pirates have no chance.

Player to Watch

Austin Meadows

The Pirates have a trio of prospects that are ready to burst on the scene in 2017.  Tyler Glasnow is projected to start the season in the rotation, and Josh Bell is slated to be the Opening Day first baseman.  However, the most intriguing prospect of the group is outfielder Austin Meadows.  He is a top ten prospect in all of baseball and about ready to become a star.  The problem is he is blocked by a trio of All Star caliber outfielders in Polanco, Marte, and McCutchen.  This was one of the reasons McCutchen was almost traded; they wanted to make room for Meadows.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out throughout the season.

2017 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

Starting with the Tigers at #17, every team from here on out will be competing for a playoff spot in September.  The Pirates will be coming up a little short though.  They will improve from their performance in 2016, but there are just way too many teams better than them.  With their mixture of established talent and bright future starts, they will be fun to watch throughout the season though.

Fearless Prediction

Andrew McCutchen will be traded by the end of the year.

Andrew McCutchen has been the face of the franchise since his debut.  However, with his declining numbers, the Pirates not making the playoffs, and the fact that he is the elder statesmen in the outfield, it makes sense if he moves on.  Like I said, they have a can't-miss phenom in Austin Meadows waiting for a spot.  One of two things will happen this year.  Either McCutchen gets traded for more prospects or Meadows gets traded for a star to make the playoff push.  It looks more likely that McCutchen gets traded though.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had three straight 2nd place finishes in the NL Central, which have led to three straight appearances in the NL Wild Card Game.  Will 2016 break the trend?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

2015 Result: 98-64, 2nd in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Game

Only one team finished with a better record than the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015.  Unfortunately, that team was in their division.  Then, for the second year in a row, they ran into the hottest pitcher in the league and were completely shut down in their one game playoff.  It was quite an anticlimactic ending for a team that almost won 100 games.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

For the first time in awhile, the Pirates actually made some changes to their core group this offseason.  Neil Walker was traded to the Mets for Jon Niese, and Pedro Alvarez wasn't re-signed in favor of a John Jaso / Mike Morse platoon at first.  Ryan Vogelsong was also brought in to add some rotation depth, and just yesterday, David Freese was signed to provide another infield option while Jung Ho Kang gets healthy.  It wasn't a lot of moves, but for a team that usually does nothing, it was an active offseason.

Most Important Hitter

Andrew McCutchen

I rarely say that a team's best player is their most important player going into the season.  However, Andrew McCutchen truly fits the bill in this case.  Cutch had a "down" year in 2015 as he started to be overshadowed by his outfield mates Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco.  If the Pirates want to get over the hump and make a serious postseason run, McCutchen has to get back to his MVP-caliber form and show why the Marte-McCutchen-Polanco outfield is the best in baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Niese

Jon Niese successfully improved his overall value with a very strong run out of the Mets' bullpen through the 2015 postseason.  That led to the Mets selling high and the Pirates buying high on Niese.  Now the Pirates need him to show that he can carry over that momentum into the starting rotation in 2016.  If he struggles, the second-guessing will dominate the conversation.

Player to Watch

Tyler Glasnow

With question marks around Niese and Vogelsong at the back end of the rotation, the future might be now for some Pirate prospects in 2016.  Tyler Glasnow is the brightest of those future stars.  He almost made an appearance down the stretch last season like Steven Matz did for the Mets, but instead they chose to move him along a little slower.  Look for him to make his big league debut as soon as someone has to miss a start.  Also, don't be surprised to also see the injury-plagued former top prospect Jameson Taillon reach the big leagues at some point too.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

New season, same result for the Pirates.  There is just something about this team that seems to keep them from getting over the hump.  It seems the Pirates are really good at being really good while the other contenders around them are finding ways to be great.  They will have another outstanding season, but they will come up short once again.

Fearless Prediction

Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen will switch positions by the end of 2016.

Many experts have been claiming for several years now that the Pirates' best centerfielder has been player leftfield.  With McCutchen's injuries and slight decline, I could see the Pirates try this theory by moving Marte to center to relieve some wear and tear on the former MVP.  It doesn't matter how they line up, they are still the best outfield in baseball.