2021 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#27

The Arizona Diamondbacks had a disappointing season in 2020, leading to the team being sellers instead of buyers at the Trade Deadline.  Will 2021 be a bounce back year for the D-Backs?

2020 Predictions

#8 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH - Starling Marte

MIP - Robbie Ray

PTW - J.B. Bukauskas

2020 Results

#25 - 25-35, 5th in NL West

Every year, there are one or two teams I whiff pretty badly on.  Last year, the Diamondbacks might have been the team I missed the worst.  I took a stab thinking they could be a surprise team to reach the Divisional Series in the NL.  Instead, they missed the playoffs, even with them expanded by almost double the teams.  The Diamondbacks made the choice to jump into the sellers market when few were ready to give up on the season.  My Most Important Hitter and Pitcher for the team last season were both traded to contenders at the deadline, as well as closer Archie Bradley and setup man Andrew Chafin.  This dropped the D-Backs down to the cellar of the NL West.

Additions / Subtractions

The most significant moves the Diamondbacks made were the moves made at last year's Trade Deadline.  The returning lineup is almost identical to how they ended the year, with the signing of veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera being the only semi-significant move.  Their pitching staff is fairly untouched as well, with veteran arm Joakim Soria being the only significant addition.

Most Important Hitter

Ketel Marte

One of the biggest surprises for the Diamondbacks over the last few seasons has been the emergence of Ketel Marte.  This 2B/SS/CF started to break out in 2018, then finished 4th in MVP voting in 2019 showing he was one of the brightest stars to watch across the league.  Marte's 2020 season was solid, but definitely saw a drop off from the production of the previous two seasons.  The D-Backs need to see Marte bounce back to his All Star level if the current group is going to have any success in 2021.

Most Important Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner

The Diamondbacks made a splash before the 2020 season when they signed the man, the myth, the legend, Madison Bumgarner.  However, his production in 2020 was less than stellar, finishing the shortened season with a negative WAR and a 6.48 ERA.  The Diamondbacks have some great young pitching, but MadBum needs to be their leader.  He is only entering his age 31 season, but all the work he put in while fighting for championships in San Francisco may have left him with not many bullets left.

Prospect to Watch

Geraldo Perdomo

The Diamondbacks do have some exciting young talent coming up through their system.  The one most likely to make a splash in 2021 is shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.  This 21 year-old is the best defender in the D-Backs system.  He is also a switch hitter that can hold his own at the plate.  Ranked the 79th best prospect in all of baseball, there may be some space for him to make his debut around the infield at some point in 2021.

2021 Prediction

4th in NL West

The Diamondbacks made a clear decision last season to take a step back.  Now they are not into a full rebuild, but they are stuck in a division with two of the most stacked rosters in all of baseball.  They (and the Rockies for that matter) are set up to be a doormat in 2021 and end up with a lower record than their talent might otherwise warrant.

Fearless Prediction

Madison Bumgarner will be not be on the Diamondbacks roster at the start of 2022.

The Diamondbacks have stripped back almost all commitments to veteran players recently in an effort to get younger and possibly open up a window later on down the road when it might be a little easier to win the division.  The last one left is MadBum.  If he shows flashes in 2021 that he is back, look for the Diamondbacks to try and unload him in a similar move to what they did for Zack Greinke a few years ago.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

#26

The Texas Rangers hit the reset button over the offseason this year.  Will the new faces in Arlington bring about more success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

4th in AL West

Cole Hamels will be traded before the end of the season.

2018 Results

67-95, 5th in AL West

The Rangers did not have as strong of a season as I expected them to have.  They struggled in many ways, including being in an extremely strong division in 2018.  Cole Hamels did indeed get moved to the Cubs at the Trade Deadline, making that a wasted deal for the Rangers.  However, the 2018 season in Texas will be remembered as the farewell tour for Adrian Beltre, who retired once the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

There wasn't much turnover in the Rangers' lineup going into 2019.  Veteran Asdrubal Cabrera replaces Beltre at third base, and Jeff Mathis goes behind the plate to replace Robinson Chirinos.  The pitching staff had much more change, with Mike Minor being the only returning starter.  Gone are Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez, Doug Fister, and Matt Moore.  In their place, the Rangers have Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez, and Shelby Miller.  The bullpen had some big turnover as well, with Keone Kela, Alex Claudio, and Jake Diekman moving on.  With all these changes, possibly the biggest change is Chris Woodward taking over as manager from Jeff Banister.

Most Important Hitter

Elvis Andrus

It wasn't that long ago that the Rangers were playing in the World Series.  However, the only player remaining from those great Ranger years is shortstop Elvis Andrus.  He has already been in the league for 10 years even though he is only entering his age 30 season.  He has become the grizzled veteran of the team and continues to be a cornerstone of what the Rangers want to do.  However, Andrus had a bad 2018, posting only a 1.7 WAR and the lowest OPS+ since 2010.  Andrus is only halfway through an 8 year contract, which means he will be paid by the Rangers through 2023.  If he is going to earn the second half of this contract, he has to play a lot better than he did last season.  If he is going to be the veteran leader the Rangers need him to be, he has to be a leader with his play.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Leclerc

Relievers can be so up and down from season to season.  However, the Rangers are hoping Jose Leclerc's 2018 season gets repeated over and over again.  Leclerc had one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in 2018, posting a 1.56 ERA in 59 games, averaging 13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings.  As a setup man, Leclerc posted the fourth best WAR on the Rangers' roster in 2018, and was named one of the ten best relievers right now on MLB Network's yearly countdown.  With so many bullpen arms moving on this offseason, Leclerc is now the closer and will now have much more expected of him.  If he can continue his dominance from last year, he will be the anchor this bullpen will need to be effective in 2019.

Prospect to Watch

Jonathan Hernandez

The Rangers have a pretty good farm system, but most of their top prospects are at least a year or two away.  Their highest prospect that has a chance to impact the big league club this year is starting pitcher Jonathan Hernandez.  The Rangers' 5th ranked prospect, Hernandez is a 22 year old righty with a strong fastball and a good slider.  He struggles a little with command, but if he puts it all together, there is a good chance he starts games for the Rangers before the end of the season, especially considering how old the starting rotation is slated to be to start the season.

2019 Prediction

5th in AL West

The Rangers are headed in the right direction.  They are riding a line few teams attempt anymore.  They are rebuilding and waiting for their farm system to pay off while also featuring enough veterans and big league talent to be interesting this year.  They will end up in the cellar again simply because of the strength of this division.  The AL West has become one of the strongest in baseball, which will lead to rookie manager Chris Woodward having a bit of a struggle in his first season.

Fearless Prediction

No pitcher for the Rangers will throw over 150 innings in 2019.

New manager Chris Woodward is a sabermetric guy, coming over from the Dodgers.  One of the goals of managers like this is to limit the innings of starters and lean on the bullpen.  Now let's combine that with the makeup of the Rangers' rotation.  Mike Minor threw 157 innings in 2018, which was his most since injuring his arm several season ago.  Lance Lynn is coming off a very disappointing season split between the Twins and the Yankees.  Drew Smyly is coming off Tommy John.  Edinson Volquez is a prime candidate to be traded to a contender mid-season if he pitches well.  If he doesn't, he will probably be released.  Shelby Miller has never quite found his form that made him the centerpiece of a trade that brought the Braves former number one overall pick Dansby Swanson.  This is an aging rotation this is bound to break down as the season progresses.  None of these starters can be counted on entering the season.  This might change throughout the season, but there is no way any of these guys rack up even a modest amount of innings.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

The New York Mets surprised a lot of people in 2015 by not only winning the NL East, but making all the way to the World Series.  Will they be able to repeat that level of success in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 4th in NL East

2015 Result: 90-72, 1st in NL East, lost in World Series

I was way off about the Mets last season.  Everyone knew about their pitching, but the question was if they would be able to produce enough offense to win games.  They hung around long enough to make a couple trades at the Trade Deadline that put them over the top down the stretch.  Their 2015 run to the World Series felt very similar to the Royals' 2014 run to the World Series.  The Royals ended up winning it all the next season.  The Mets are hoping the pattern continues with them.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The primary subtractions for the Mets end up not affecting them that much.  The biggest name to leave was Daniel Murphy, however the trade for Neil Walker brings in a comparable replacement.  They had to give up Jon Niese to get Walker, but their rotation hardly needed him anymore.  Michael Cuddyer retired, however this simply cleared a space for phenom Michael Conforto to start every day.  The biggest move made this offseason was re-signing Yoenis Cespedes, who gave them the boost they needed to get as far as they did last season.  They also brought in veteran Asdrubal Cabrera to give boost at shortstop offensively.

Most Important Hitter

Yoenis Cespedes

The Mets are built around pitching, but their lineup this season will be built around Cespedes.  He is about as streaky of a hitter as there is in baseball right now.  He can look like an MVP candidate for a week, then look like he needs to be benched.  He is like Yasiel Puig minus all the flash.  The biggest question going into this season is can he play centerfield on a consistent basis?  He is an elite corner outfielder, but he showed in the playoffs last year that he can be an average at best centerfielder.  With defensive stud Juan Lagares now relegated to the bench, how much do they let Cespedes bumble and stumble in center before they try and figure out an alternative?  Or does he show that his defensive play in the playoffs was an anomaly, and he can actually play the position well?  Only time will tell...

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Harvey

In his first first full season back from Tommy John surgery, Matt Harvey for the most part returned to his elite form from a few years prior.  The dreaded "innings limit" came up and reared its ugly head at the end of the season, but it turned out to not distract from the playoff push.  Now all the limits should be lifted.  The Mets have the potential, by the end of the season, to have five aces in their rotation.  The difference between this and the Nationals of 2015 is all of the Met's starters are 28 or younger.  They are all in their prime and still getting better.  Matt Harvey, although he wasn't the best of them last year, is the leader.  He needs to keep up with deGrom and Syndergaard to keep that title and make this rotation as historic as it could be.

Player to Watch

Steven Matz

This isn't really a huge revelation considering how well he played in the postseason last year.  The bigger surprise might be the fact that through all he did last season, Steven Matz maintained his rookie status for 2016.  He is expected to be the sole lefty in the Mets' rotation and contribute right away on day one.  Once Zack Wheeler returns from Tommy John, this will be a rotation unmatched in the league.

2016 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

This pitching staff is for real.  This is not just silly over-hype because they are a New York team.  Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Syndergaard, and Wheeler would all be aces for any other team.  The Mets have them all.  It will be really hard for them lose behind this group.  Also, the NL East is pretty terrible this season, featuring possibly the two worst teams in all of baseball.  This will be a two team race for the division, and I see the Mets pulling it out.  They won't get all the way back to where they did in 2015 (they still need to improve that offense a little more), but it will be a respectable follow-up to the surprise World Series appearance last season.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Mets' five aces will go down with Tommy John surgery in 2016.

The arm of a pitcher, especially a young pitcher, is a fragile thing these days.  It seems to be a requirement to miss a season with the dreaded Tommy John at some point.  The Mets have already had two of their Big Five go through it in Harvey and Wheeler.  It seems inevitable that it happens again.  If I had to pick one, I would say it's Syndergaard's turn.  However, this pitching staff is deep enough, they can withstand one of the group going down for awhile.  They already have the ageless Bartolo Colon in the fold to fill in for Wheeler until he is ready to come back mid-season.  He would just continue to pitch as he always has.  It just doesn't seem logical to have five young arms like that all finish the season perfectly healthy though.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

Joe Maddon managed the Tampa Bay Rays for nine seasons, leading them to their first six winning seasons and a World Series appearance.  Now that Maddon has moved on, can the Rays continue their winning ways.

Last Season

77-85, 4th in AL East

For the first time since his first two seasons as manager, Joe Maddon's Rays finished with a losing record.  They have always found ways of overachieving year after year under Maddon even with the poor business plan of the Rays.  They would develop their young players, and then trade them right before they are about to cash in with a big contract (except for Evan Longoria).  It's no wonder Joe Maddon left Tampa when he had the chance, especially after the team decided to trade away ace David Price instead of try and lock him up long term.  All this selling of their best players left the Rays with one of their least talented rosters in years.  It's a miracle their record was as good as it was.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The Rays continued their selling of their veterans in the offseason.  Leaving the Rays via trade this offseason were Yunel Escobar, Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce, Jeremy Hellickson, Sean Rodriguez, and 2013 Rookie of the Year Wil Myers.  The only players ready to impact the club now that were brought in were Asdrubal Cabrera and John Jaso.  Eventually, the Rays might see a return for their investments, but it will be a few years down the line.

Most Important Hitter

Desmond Jennings

Desmond Jennings has been poised to have a breakout season for several years now.  In fact, the fact that he hasn't had his big breakout year is probably the reason he is still a Ray since every other good player has been traded.  However, this is a very talented player and hitter that has the potential of being an impact bat in the Rays' lineup.  As one of the few returning players from last year's lineup, he is also, along with Evan Longoria, taking on some veteran leadership responsibilities of the remembering the winning ways of the Rays.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

The Rays have always been carried by a great pitching staff.  However, with former cornerstones of the rotation like James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price gone, the Rays need the next generation of pitching stars to emerge.  With Alex Cobb starting the season on the DL, this responsibility fall squarely on the shoulders of Chris Archer.  Archer followed his rookie season with a solid performance in 2014.  Now the Rays are counting on him to be the new ace of the staff moving forward ... at least for 3 years or so before they trade him too.

Player to Watch

Steven Souza

Steven Souza is a perfect example of the Rays' gameplan in forming their roster.  Souza was acquired this offseason in the Wil Myers trade.  By trading away a current star, the Rays were able to bring in a potential future star.  Souza is penciled in to be the Rays' staring rightfielder on Opening Day.  Expect him to be the next breakout guy on the trading block for the Rays.

Prediction

5th in AL East

If any team is going to finish with 100+ wins this season, it is going to be the Tampa Bay Rays.  This is one of the least talented teams they have fielded in a very long time (outside of the pitching rotation, which might be the only reason they don't lose 100 games), and losing Joe Maddon is going to show as this club will not overachieve as previous young rosters have.  I am not saying rookie manager Kevin Cash is going to be a bad coach, but he just isn't Joe Maddon.  Maddon seemed to pull off a magic trick every year in Tampa, and with him moving on the team will take a step back no matter who is managing.  They might as well go back to being the Devil Rays because they will be that forgettable.