2023 Pre-Season Predictions: Arizona Diamondbacks

 #18

The Arizona Diamondbacks went from being one of the worst teams in baseball in 2021 to respectable in 2022.  Will 2023 bring about more steps forward or another step back?

2022 Predictions

#27 - 4th in NL West

MIH - Pavin Smith

MIP - Zac Gallen

PTW - Alek Thomas

2022 Results

#20 - 74-88, 4th in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - Christian Walker

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Zac Gallen

The Diamondbacks bounced back in a big way in 2022.  The problem was they had so far to bounce back from.  They quietly had an impressive season with some players taking some huge steps forward.  Zac Gallen finished top 5 in the Cy Young, and first baseman Christian Walker hit 36 home runs.  Not too bad for a team that lost 110 games the year before.

Additions / Subtractions

The Diamondbacks had some interesting moves this offseason that showed they were both buying and selling.  They traded standout Daulton Varsho, but got outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and catching phenom Gabriel Moreno in return.  They traded utilityman Cooper Hummel, but picked up former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis in return.  They also added veteran Evan Longoria to provide some clubhouse leadership, but also some hot corner production.  He could also be a trade candidate at the Deadline if the season goes south.

Most Important Hitter

Ketel Marte

It feels like Ketel Marte is a veteran that has been around forever and maybe entering the twilight of his career.  He is actually only entering his age 29 season.  Some people don't even hit their peak until 29.  For Marte, so far his peak was 2019.  He hit 32 home runs, 92 RBI, a 149 OPS+, and finished 4th in the MVP voting.  Outside of that one season, his season high in home runs is 14.  He was on track for a great 2021 season, but he only played in 90 games.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the last time Marte was elite for a while season was the last time the Diamondbacks were over .500.  If the D-Backs want to get back to being relevant, Marte needs to get back to being a potential All Star.

Most Important Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner

The Diamondbacks have had some pitchers emerge the last few seasons as possible aces.  Zac Gallen is becoming a star, Merrill Kelly is consistent and solid enough to earn a WBC spot on Team USA.  Through all that, the highest paid member of the pitching staff has been a bit of a dud.  Madison Bumgarner signed a big free agent deal in Arizona before the 2020 season.  In 11 seasons in San Francisco, MadBum became a legend while never having an ERA+ below 100.  In 3 season in Arizona, he has never had an ERA+ above 100, topping out at 90 in 2021.  The 2022 season saw a 7-15 record with a 4.88 ERA.  He is under contract with the Diamondbacks for 2 more seasons.  If the Diamondbacks could get a career renaissance from MadBum, it would be a pleasant surprise at this point, and might be what the they need to push them to another level.

Prospect to Watch

Corbin Carroll

The Diamondbacks have built up a strong and deep farm system.  At the top of that system is the #2 prospect in all of baseball, Corbin Carroll.  The 22 year old Seattle native was picked in the first round by the D-Backs in 2019, and has excelled ever since.  He got a taste of the big leagues in 2022, earning a 133 OPS+ and 1.1 in WAR in just 32 games.  More importantly, his performance in 2022 made the Diamondbacks comfortable enough to sign a player still officially considered a prospect to an 8 year, $111 million contract.  At his worst, he's a Gold Glove caliber defender and one of the fastest players in baseball.  At his best, he could be one of the best players in baseball.

2023 Prediction

3rd in NL West

It doesn't feel like a step forward, but moving into 3rd place in the NL West is the absolute ceiling for this team in 2023.  I could totally see this roster reaching that level.  This could be one of the more entertaining teams to watch in 2023.  They have a great manager, some established stars, and some exciting young talent.  Watch for them to be a surprise in 2023.

Fearless Prediction

Corbin Carroll will win the Rookie of the Year.

Okay, it might not feel like much of a bold prediction, but who cares.  Corbin Carroll is a star in the making, and 2023 will be his coming out party.  There are some other big prospects that will be competing for the NL Rookie of the Year, but it feels like Carroll has this wrapped up before it even starts.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#27

The Arizona Diamondbacks had a disappointing season in 2020, leading to the team being sellers instead of buyers at the Trade Deadline.  Will 2021 be a bounce back year for the D-Backs?

2020 Predictions

#8 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH - Starling Marte

MIP - Robbie Ray

PTW - J.B. Bukauskas

2020 Results

#25 - 25-35, 5th in NL West

Every year, there are one or two teams I whiff pretty badly on.  Last year, the Diamondbacks might have been the team I missed the worst.  I took a stab thinking they could be a surprise team to reach the Divisional Series in the NL.  Instead, they missed the playoffs, even with them expanded by almost double the teams.  The Diamondbacks made the choice to jump into the sellers market when few were ready to give up on the season.  My Most Important Hitter and Pitcher for the team last season were both traded to contenders at the deadline, as well as closer Archie Bradley and setup man Andrew Chafin.  This dropped the D-Backs down to the cellar of the NL West.

Additions / Subtractions

The most significant moves the Diamondbacks made were the moves made at last year's Trade Deadline.  The returning lineup is almost identical to how they ended the year, with the signing of veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera being the only semi-significant move.  Their pitching staff is fairly untouched as well, with veteran arm Joakim Soria being the only significant addition.

Most Important Hitter

Ketel Marte

One of the biggest surprises for the Diamondbacks over the last few seasons has been the emergence of Ketel Marte.  This 2B/SS/CF started to break out in 2018, then finished 4th in MVP voting in 2019 showing he was one of the brightest stars to watch across the league.  Marte's 2020 season was solid, but definitely saw a drop off from the production of the previous two seasons.  The D-Backs need to see Marte bounce back to his All Star level if the current group is going to have any success in 2021.

Most Important Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner

The Diamondbacks made a splash before the 2020 season when they signed the man, the myth, the legend, Madison Bumgarner.  However, his production in 2020 was less than stellar, finishing the shortened season with a negative WAR and a 6.48 ERA.  The Diamondbacks have some great young pitching, but MadBum needs to be their leader.  He is only entering his age 31 season, but all the work he put in while fighting for championships in San Francisco may have left him with not many bullets left.

Prospect to Watch

Geraldo Perdomo

The Diamondbacks do have some exciting young talent coming up through their system.  The one most likely to make a splash in 2021 is shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.  This 21 year-old is the best defender in the D-Backs system.  He is also a switch hitter that can hold his own at the plate.  Ranked the 79th best prospect in all of baseball, there may be some space for him to make his debut around the infield at some point in 2021.

2021 Prediction

4th in NL West

The Diamondbacks made a clear decision last season to take a step back.  Now they are not into a full rebuild, but they are stuck in a division with two of the most stacked rosters in all of baseball.  They (and the Rockies for that matter) are set up to be a doormat in 2021 and end up with a lower record than their talent might otherwise warrant.

Fearless Prediction

Madison Bumgarner will be not be on the Diamondbacks roster at the start of 2022.

The Diamondbacks have stripped back almost all commitments to veteran players recently in an effort to get younger and possibly open up a window later on down the road when it might be a little easier to win the division.  The last one left is MadBum.  If he shows flashes in 2021 that he is back, look for the Diamondbacks to try and unload him in a similar move to what they did for Zack Greinke a few years ago.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#21

The Arizona Diamondbacks finished just over .500 in 2018, but watched three of their best players leave over the offseason.  Will their departure help the D'Backs take a step forward in 2019, or will they take a step back?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL West

This will be Zack Greinke's last season in Arizona.

2018 Results

82-80, 3rd in NL West

The Diamondbacks followed up a playoff run in 2017 with a solid season in 2018.  Although they did not make the playoffs, the two teams ahead of them in the division did.  Through all that, they continued to be competitive through the ups and downs of the season.  Although there were several rumors, Zack Greinke is still on the roster even if the D'Backs may have wanted to move him.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason, the Diamondbacks decided to walk a fine line between starting a full rebuild and going for it all this season.  In terms of WAR, four of the team's top eight players from last season are no longer on the roster.  A.J. Pollock, Clay Buchholz, and Patrick Corbin moved on via free agency while the face of the franchise, Paul Goldschmidt, was traded to the Cardinals.  Very little was brought back in return.  Catcher Alex Avila, second baseman Wilmer Flores, and centerfielder Adam Jones were signed in free agency.  Starter Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly were brought in as part of the Goldschmidt deal.  Needless to say, the production in return is not looking like it will match the production brought back.

Most Important Hitter

Ketel Marte

In what was originally billed as a trade that exchanged Jean Segura for Taijuan Walker with the Mariners, the secondary pieces of that trade have quickly become the most productive.  For the Mariners, that player was Mitch Haniger.  For the Diamondbacks, that player was Ketel Marte.  As the D'Backs second baseman last season, Ketel posted a 3.3 WAR season, making him their fifth best player behind Goldschmidt, Corbin, Greinke, and David Peralta.  In 2019, the Diamondbacks are looking to use Marte's athleticism a little more.  At first, he was slated to be their starting centerfielder.  Now, with Adam Jones on the roster, it is looking like he will be more of a super utility guy.  With the loss of Pollock and Goldschmidt, Marte will be an important piece for his speed and versatility.

Most Important Pitcher

Zack Greinke

When Zack Greinke signed his huge free agent deal in Arizona in 2016, it was going to be really hard for him to live up to the dollar amount now attached to him.  However, he has done about as good of a job as he could.  In his three seasons in Arizona, Greinke has posted an ERA+ of 102, 147, and 135 even though his velocity has taken a dip.  However, he is entering his age 35 season with three years left on his huge deal.  Realistically, the Diamondbacks hope he pitches well enough that they could unload his high price tag for a decent return.  However, they probably will not find the suitor they want.  That means they just need to hope he stays productive enough to lead the rotation.

Prospect to Watch

Taylor Widener

As a part of the trade that brought Steven Souza Jr. to the Diamondbacks, one of the other pieces to go to the desert was Taylor Widener, a 24 year old hard-throwing right handed pitcher.  A former 12th round pick by the Yankees, Widener has value in both the rotation and the bullpen.  After dominating AA in 2018, he should start the season with a great opportunity in AAA.  If that goes well, he should be one of the first options if a rotation spot opens up.  If a spot doesn't open, he could help bolster a bullpen that lost a few pieces from last season.

2019 Prediction

4th in NL West

Considering everything they lost, it would be impossible for the Diamondbacks not to take a step back.  With that said, they should be fun to watch.  They still have solid pitching without Corbin.  They should still have a solid offense without Goldschmidt and Pollock.  There should be some success that might even keep them on the periphery of the Wild Card race for a little while.  However, the Diamondbacks are not looking at 2019.  Some mild success will not convince the Diamondbacks to sacrifice some future success to make a run this season.

Fearless Prediction

The Diamondbacks will get more success out of centerfield this season than A.J. Pollock will give the Dodgers.

The Diamondbacks are planning to go with a combination of Ketel Marte and Adam Jones in centerfield this season.  Marte has the chance to be a rising star, and Adam Jones is one of the most productive and consistent centerfielders of the last decade.  In six full seasons in the big leagues, A.J. Pollock has only played more the 113 games twice.  So the Diamondbacks replaced injuries with consistency and durability.  When Pollock plays, he is one of the best.  However, I have a feeling the Diamondbacks are not going to regret letting Pollock move on.