2019 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#21

The Arizona Diamondbacks finished just over .500 in 2018, but watched three of their best players leave over the offseason.  Will their departure help the D'Backs take a step forward in 2019, or will they take a step back?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL West

This will be Zack Greinke's last season in Arizona.

2018 Results

82-80, 3rd in NL West

The Diamondbacks followed up a playoff run in 2017 with a solid season in 2018.  Although they did not make the playoffs, the two teams ahead of them in the division did.  Through all that, they continued to be competitive through the ups and downs of the season.  Although there were several rumors, Zack Greinke is still on the roster even if the D'Backs may have wanted to move him.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason, the Diamondbacks decided to walk a fine line between starting a full rebuild and going for it all this season.  In terms of WAR, four of the team's top eight players from last season are no longer on the roster.  A.J. Pollock, Clay Buchholz, and Patrick Corbin moved on via free agency while the face of the franchise, Paul Goldschmidt, was traded to the Cardinals.  Very little was brought back in return.  Catcher Alex Avila, second baseman Wilmer Flores, and centerfielder Adam Jones were signed in free agency.  Starter Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly were brought in as part of the Goldschmidt deal.  Needless to say, the production in return is not looking like it will match the production brought back.

Most Important Hitter

Ketel Marte

In what was originally billed as a trade that exchanged Jean Segura for Taijuan Walker with the Mariners, the secondary pieces of that trade have quickly become the most productive.  For the Mariners, that player was Mitch Haniger.  For the Diamondbacks, that player was Ketel Marte.  As the D'Backs second baseman last season, Ketel posted a 3.3 WAR season, making him their fifth best player behind Goldschmidt, Corbin, Greinke, and David Peralta.  In 2019, the Diamondbacks are looking to use Marte's athleticism a little more.  At first, he was slated to be their starting centerfielder.  Now, with Adam Jones on the roster, it is looking like he will be more of a super utility guy.  With the loss of Pollock and Goldschmidt, Marte will be an important piece for his speed and versatility.

Most Important Pitcher

Zack Greinke

When Zack Greinke signed his huge free agent deal in Arizona in 2016, it was going to be really hard for him to live up to the dollar amount now attached to him.  However, he has done about as good of a job as he could.  In his three seasons in Arizona, Greinke has posted an ERA+ of 102, 147, and 135 even though his velocity has taken a dip.  However, he is entering his age 35 season with three years left on his huge deal.  Realistically, the Diamondbacks hope he pitches well enough that they could unload his high price tag for a decent return.  However, they probably will not find the suitor they want.  That means they just need to hope he stays productive enough to lead the rotation.

Prospect to Watch

Taylor Widener

As a part of the trade that brought Steven Souza Jr. to the Diamondbacks, one of the other pieces to go to the desert was Taylor Widener, a 24 year old hard-throwing right handed pitcher.  A former 12th round pick by the Yankees, Widener has value in both the rotation and the bullpen.  After dominating AA in 2018, he should start the season with a great opportunity in AAA.  If that goes well, he should be one of the first options if a rotation spot opens up.  If a spot doesn't open, he could help bolster a bullpen that lost a few pieces from last season.

2019 Prediction

4th in NL West

Considering everything they lost, it would be impossible for the Diamondbacks not to take a step back.  With that said, they should be fun to watch.  They still have solid pitching without Corbin.  They should still have a solid offense without Goldschmidt and Pollock.  There should be some success that might even keep them on the periphery of the Wild Card race for a little while.  However, the Diamondbacks are not looking at 2019.  Some mild success will not convince the Diamondbacks to sacrifice some future success to make a run this season.

Fearless Prediction

The Diamondbacks will get more success out of centerfield this season than A.J. Pollock will give the Dodgers.

The Diamondbacks are planning to go with a combination of Ketel Marte and Adam Jones in centerfield this season.  Marte has the chance to be a rising star, and Adam Jones is one of the most productive and consistent centerfielders of the last decade.  In six full seasons in the big leagues, A.J. Pollock has only played more the 113 games twice.  So the Diamondbacks replaced injuries with consistency and durability.  When Pollock plays, he is one of the best.  However, I have a feeling the Diamondbacks are not going to regret letting Pollock move on.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#23

The Baltimore Orioles had a very disappointing season in 2017, going from the playoffs to the cellar.  Which team will we see in 2018?

2017 Predictions

2nd in AL East

Manny Machado will be starting at shortstop by the end of the season.

2017 Results

75-87, 5th in AL East

The Orioles fought through some key injuries and some low production out of some key performers to finish at the bottom of a very competitive AL East.  As core players like Adam Jones and Chris Davis begin to show some age, players like Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini emerged as potential stars moving forward.  As for Manny Machado, he did not have his best year.  Add this to the emergence of Tim Beckham at shortstop, and Machado was forced to stay at third base (at least until the end of that season).

Additions / Subtractions

Once again, the story of the Orioles' off-season was their inability to make any moves to improve.  They made some minor moves like adding Colby Rasmus (coming off his year sabbatical from the game) to replace Seth Smith, and signing Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman after the prices fell low enough.  In a year that many people think is the last of their current window (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton have expiring contracts at the end of the season), they once again failed the offseason.  The biggest move they made was finally giving in to Machado's wishes of playing shortstop, even though they had Tim Beckham emerge as a quality shortstop and Machado is not projected to be on the roster next year.  Nothing they did made sense.

Most Important Hitter

Manny Machado

There are a lot of players in this lineup that could be in this spot.  Jonathan Schoop is looking to repeat his monster production from last year.  Chris Davis is trying to return to the monster seasons he had a few years back.  Mark Trumbo is trying to prove 2016 wasn't a fluke after a poor 2017.  With all that said, this season for the Orioles will be defined by what happens with Manny Machado.  He is controversially switching positions.  He is in a contract year.  Many thought he should have been traded this offseason.  Many believe he will be traded by the Trade Deadline.  Most assume this is his last Opening Day in an Orioles uniform.  What happens with Machado will define the Orioles' season.

Most Important Pitcher

Zach Britton

Similarly to Machado, Zach Britton will play a huge role in how successful the Orioles are this season.  His situation is very different though.  After rupturing his Achilles last season, Britton will not see the field until the end of May at the earliest.  Much like Machado, everyone assumes his days in Baltimore are numbered.  If he comes back and shows he is the dominant Zach Britton, it not only help out the Orioles but it makes him much more valuable in the potential trade market.  If he can't get back his dominance, the Orioles just lost the value of one of their best players.

Prospect to Watch

Austin Hays

Now let's talk about someone that will be on the Orioles' roster after this season is over.  Austin Hays is the top prospect in the organization.  A natural centerfielder, Hays got some time at the end of last season playing corner outfield for the O's.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the everyday rightfielder after some time as he waits for Adam Jones to potentially move on after 2018.

2018 Prediction

4th in AL East

The Orioles still have some great talent.  Machado is a stud, Adam Jones still has some production left in the tank, and the bullpen is solid.  However, this organization is a mess.  Their lack of activity the last few offseasons will not allow them to compete in 2018.  The whole season will be a giant distraction waiting to see what will happen with Machado.  In the meantime, what could have been one last run will turn out to be a dumpster fire.  I had them in the cellar before the Rays completely dismantled their roster after Spring Training started.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton will all end the season on the Orioles' roster.

This will be a lost season in Baltimore.  Logic says that when you have a lost season, you trade expiring contracts to contenders for prospects that will help you build back up.  However, the Orioles haven't done anything resembling logic for several years.  They will hold onto their assets all season, refusing to trade.  They will sign them to qualifying offers in the offseason and collect the draft pick compensation when they sign elsewhere.  Adam Jones is the only one with a chance to return, but with the direction the O's are going, I wouldn't want to.  Cut bait and run!

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#13

The Baltimore Orioles have been on the brink of being great a several seasons now.  Will 2017 finally be the year they push over the edge?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in AL East

Manny Machado will be playing shortstop by the end of the season.

2016 Results

89-73, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Game

The Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs in 2016, only to lose in their one and only game (seriously, how did Zach Britton never see the field?!?).  They had a dynamite lineup with just enough pitching, as well as a dominant bullpen.  It seemed to be the ticket to get them in the postseason, but it didn't serve them well once they got there.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles are notorious for making very few moves in the offseason.  They let Matt Wieters walk in free agency, and signed Welington Castillo to replace him.  They also traded Yovani Gallardo to the Mariners for Seth Smith.  Outside of these, the biggest move the Orioles made was re-signing Mark Trumbo after his career year.

Most Important Hitter

Mark Trumbo

The Orioles hit the jackpot with Mark Trumbo in 2016.  They traded a backup catcher to the Mariners for the slugger that turned into the home run champ.  Trumbo went into free agency with a high price, but ended up coming back to Baltimore when everyone realized he might be a one hit wonder.  Now, the Orioles are hoping last season was a sign of things to come as he anchors their 2017 lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Dylan Bundy

If there has been one knock on the Orioles during the Buck Showalter years, it has been the starting rotation.  Dylan Bundy has been someone the Orioles have counted on to fix the rotation when he burst on the scene.  However, he went from phenom and can't miss prospect to injury plagued to almost being released to now finally taking his spot in the rotation.  Now Bundy has the potential to anchor a weakening staff as Chris Tillman is starting the year injured, Wade Miley is injured, and Ubaldo Jimenez continues to deteriorate with age.  Bundy's success is fairly closely tied to the Orioles' success.

Player to Watch

Chance Sisco

One of the reasons the Orioles let Wieters walk this offseason was the upcoming debut and emergence of Chance Sisco.  Sisco, the only Orioles' prospect in the Top 100 Prospects in the game, is a great hitting prospect that the Orioles hope to see behind the plate for years to come.  Bringing in Welington Castillo is a short-term solution, as he will also work as a mentor for young Sisco throughout the season.  The questions is not if, but when Sisco takes over behind the plate.

2017 Prediction

2nd in AL East

The Orioles are going to have a very similar season to 2016.  The problem is I don't think it will be enough to get them into the playoffs this season.  Trumbo can't repeat his performance from last year.  The rotation, if possible, will take a step back.  Britton will be dominant again, but it just won't be enough.  Look for them to be the last team to be eliminated from playoff contention in the American League.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado will be starting at shortstop by the end of the season.

This is the same prediction as I made last season.  In 2016, Manny Machado did play for a good portion of the season at shortstop when J.J. Hardy was injured.  However, when J.J. Hardy got healthy again, Machado moved back to third.  He is one of the best defensive third basemen in the league, but he could also be one of the best shortstops in the league.  Let's face it, Machado is one of the best in the league no matter where he plays.  Eventually, the Orioles are going to move on from J.J. Hardy.  He is entering his age 34 season, and his offense has declined.  He is still a decent glove man, but if they decide they need more than that, they may try and upgrade at third while moving Machado to short.  Either way, if Machado doesn't move to short this season, it probably will never happen.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

For the past few years, the Baltimore Orioles have been stuck one step from the top.  In 2014, the made it to the ALCS.  In 2015, they missed the playoffs.  What will happen in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in AL East

2015 Result: 81-81, 3rd in AL East

I got their spot right on last season.  They entered the 2015 season without making any moves to move them forward, and they ended up stalling for the whole season while other teams passed them up.  Everyone saw this coming.  They needed to do something to improve their roster and didn't.  That was the result because of it.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

It was going to be really interesting to see if they did anything different this offseason after a quiet offseason last year cost them a chance to do something special.  They lost guys like Wei-Yin Chen, Steve Pearce, and Gerrardo Parra to free agency.  However, the biggest thing they did this offseason was re-sign first baseman Chris Davis.  Then they did actually bring in some outside help this offseason also, trading for Mark Trumbo and signing Pedro Alvarez and Yovani Gallardo.  They aren't blockbuster signings, but they definitely fit in what the O's are all about and will help the team out.  The Orioles also were a part of the weirdest story of the offseason, signing Dexter Fowler only to have the whole thing fall apart and Fowler end up back with the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Wieters

Matt Wieters, along with Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson, made history this offseason by becoming the first players to ever take their qualifying offers instead of testing free agency (I think some others are wishing they had done the same ... Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond to name a few).  Matt Wieters needs a bounce back season.  From 2011-2013, he made two All Star Teams, won two Gold Gloves, got some MVP votes, and hit 20+ home runs each season.  Then he had Tommy John surgery and has yet to return to that form since.  He only played in 75 games last season after playing almost double that in each season in that earlier stretch.  Not only are the Orioles counting on a return to past glory, but by accepting the qualifying offer, it shows Matt Wieters is hoping for the same thing so he can get his big pay day next offseason.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Tillman

The one consistent member of the Orioles pitching staff over the past four or five seasons has been Chris Tillman.  It shows just how much they believe in him to be the only cog that hasn't been a revolving door in that rotation.  However, last season was pretty rough for Tillman.  With Wei-Yin Chen moving on to Miami, Tillman is being counted on to be the ace, even with Yovani Gallardo in the fold.  He has to pitch like he did in 2013 and 2014 for the Orioles to have success in 2016.

Player to Watch

Dylan Bundy

It feels like Dylan Bundy has been the player to watch for Baltimore for 5 years now.  Well, that's because he has.  After being taken in the 2011 draft 4th overall, he made his big league debut in 2012.  Then, a series of injuries kept him from playing much since.  Now, because of those two games he played in 2012 at the age of 19, he is now potentially facing waivers if he does not crack the Opening Day roster.  His story is similar to Danny Hultzen, second overall pick by the Mariners in the same 2011 Draft.  His arm issues have held him back in the same way.  The only difference is Hultzen never made his debut so his service clock hasn't started yet.  It will be very interesting to see if Bundy makes the Orioles' roster, most likely in the bullpen if he does.  If he doesn't, there is a good chance he is not Oriole property when the season starts.

2016 Prediction

4th in AL East

Yes, the Orioles have made improvements to their roster, however if you really look at it, they really just replaced what they already had with comparable pieces.  Trumbo replaces Parra, Alvarez replaces Pearce, and Gallardo replaces Chen.  Those are comparable, if not inferior, replacements for every position (and Gallardo was a late addition).  I see them in the exact same spot as last year.  They are still good, but everyone else around them is getting better, and they will continue to fall down the standings of the AL East until they commit and make a splash.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado will be playing shortstop by the end of the season.

Manny Machado has become one of the best third basemen in the league.  However, his natural position is shortstop.  He came up as a third baseman because of how well J.J. Hardy had played at short.  It has always been in the back of everyone's mind that eventually, Manny Machado would end up at shortstop, the onl question was when.  Last year, J.J. Hardy had a terrible season as his age looked like it might have finally caught up with him a little.  If he struggles at all this season, look for him to be traded to finally clear the path for Machado to shine at his natural position.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles worked through injuries and disappointing seasons in 2014 to top one of the most competitive and discussed divisions in baseball.  Do they have the talent to repeat in 2015?

Last Season

96-66, 1st in AL East, lost to Royals in ALCS

The 2014 season for the Baltimore Orioles had to be considered an incredible achievement.  They finished the season with the second best record in the American League, swept their way through one of the best pitching staffs in baseball by beating the Tigers in the ALDS, and if it weren't for the buzz saw that was the 2014 Kansas City Royals, they win the pennant and maybe the whole thing.  It's pretty impressive on its own, but even more when you consider what the O's had to endure.  First, All Star catcher Matt Wieters missed most of the season with an injury.  The same could be said for third base phenom Manny Machado, who at least played half the season.  The breakout star of 2013, first baseman Chris Davis, showed his performance that year may have been a fluke as he finished with a batting average under .200 and a home run total that was cut in half.  On the pitching side, Ubaldo Jimenez, the only starter with any history of success, struggled again, and closer Tommy Hunter needed to be replaced mid-season due to lack of production.  When a list like this can be made for everything that went wrong, it's amazing they didn't finish in the cellar.  However, thanks to the emergence of guys like Nelson Cruz, Steve Pearce, Chris Tillman, and new closer Zach Britton, the Orioles dominated.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

After such a strong 2014 season, many people said the Orioles were only a few pieces away from being the World Series favorites heading into 2015.  However, instead of making those few moves, the O's were disturbingly quiet.  They let Nelson Cruz, their most productive hitter in 2014, sign with the Mariners in free agency.  Team leader, Nick Markakis, left to sign with the Braves, and they let one of the best setup men in baseball, Andrew Miller, sign with the division rival Yankees.  As far as additions to replace the lost offense or help sure up an inconsistent rotation, they signed Travis Snider to play rightfield.  So ... they basically did nothing.

Most Important Hitter

Manny Machado

One of the reasons (I'm assuming) the Orioles didn't feel a need to fill what appeared to be big voids in their lineup left by Cruz and Markakis is they are expecting to have healthy, productive seasons out of some of their stars that underwhelmed last year.  The brightest of those stars that need to step up is Manny Machado.  Heading into this season healthy, the O's are expecting him to be back at the level that made him an All Star and Gold Glove winner while leading the league in doubles at the age of 20 in 2013.  He needs to show that he is back to that level of play, if not better, while also showing he is future leader and face of the franchise.  That is quite the load for a young 22 year old.

Most Important Pitcher

Zach Britton

Last year, when Tommy Hunter started the year struggling, Zach Britton came out of nowhere to finally show some of the promise everyone was expecting to see out of him from the beginning as a highly-touted starting prospect.  2014 saw him earn his first save (ended up with 37 of them) and have his first ERA that didn't hover around 5.00 (1.65 ERA in 2014).  The question going into 2015 is did this highly-talented kid finally figure it out and put it all together, or, like his burly teammate Chris Davis, did he just catch lightning in a bottle for one great year and will go back to being mediocre.  The Orioles are counting on the former being the case.

Player to Watch

Dylan Bundy

It feel like the Orioles have been waiting for the arrival of Dylan Bundy forever.  As the 4th overall pick in 2011, Bundy made his big league debut in 2012 at the age of 19.  After missing a year with Tommy John, he was working his way back to top form in 2014.  Now, it looks like the O's top prospect is on the verge of being the star they have always hoped he would be.  Look for him to pop up sometime around mid-season in their rotation.  A guy with the talent of Dylan Bundy could explain why the Orioles didn't feel the need to go spend on a big time free agent for their rotation.

Prediction

3rd in AL East

When it is all said and done, the Orioles just don't have the firepower to be competitive, let alone dominant, in 2015.  With the loss of Cruz, Markakis, and Miller, too many things have to go right.  Matt Wieters has to be the guy that looks like the best catcher in baseball right away.  Chris Davis has to go back to being his 2013 self.  Steve Pearce has to continue to play above his talent level.  Zach Britton has to follow up his career year with another one.  Guys like Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen have to continue to lead the pitching staff and not have a down year.  Lastly, Manny Machado needs to be an MVP candidate.  The O's had the talent to lose players of that caliber, but now their margin of error is so much smaller.  Everything needs to go right for them to be great, and in a 162 game grind, that rarely happens.  Look for the Orioles to take a couple steps back this year, and then maybe they will try something (anything!) next offseason to actually improve their team.