2017 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

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The Washington Nationals have been on the brink of winning a pennant for years now.  Will 2017 finally be the year the franchise makes its first World Series?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL East

Stephen Strasburg will be traded before the end of the season.

2016 Results

95-67, 1st in NL East, lost in NLDS

The Nationals had a better season than I anticipated.  Despite Bryce Harper having a sub-par season compared to his MVP 2015 season, the Nats were able to win the division behind their elite pitching.  The addition of Dusty Baker as manager seemed to have more of an impact than many expected.  With all that said, the Nationals still came up short, not even winning a series in the playoffs before being ousted once again.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I said the team had a choice to make: either sign Strasburg long term or trade him.  I simply chose the wrong option as Strasburg will be a Nat for the foreseeable future.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nationals were active this offseason.  They also made several of the more scrutinized moves of the offseason.  Leaving the team were catcher Wilson Ramos, rented closer Mark Melancon, ad shortstop Danny Espinosa.  The Nats were a leading candidate this offseason for ace Chris Sale.  When they lost the bid to the Red Sox, they immediately turned around and traded multiple top prospects for outfielder Adam Eaton.  Many have argued, although the advanced analytics say Eaton was worth the trade, the Nationals overpaid for him.  Late in free agency, they brought in catcher Matt Wieters to replace the departed Ramos.  The other questionable move involves a move they didn't make.  After losing Melancon to free agency, the Nats left themselves without an elite, or even a proven, closer.  They could have acquired guys like David Robertson from Chicago or Alex Colome from Tampa Bay.  Instead, they chose to fill this role from within, even though they had no one on their roster with big league closing experience.

Most Important Hitter

Adam Eaton

With the amount the Nationals gave up for Adam Eaton, he needs to show that he was worth it.  Eaton is a really good defensive player with a decent bat and a knack for getting on base and causing havoc once he is there.  With the sluggers the Nats have in the middle of their order, they felt their urgent need was a table setter to get on base in front of guys like Harper, Murphy, and Zimmerman.  Not only is Eaton being counted on to be that guy, he has to be that guy not only for the Nationals to succeed this season, but also to justify the big trade made for him.

Most Important Pitcher

Tanner Roark

To make a deep postseason run, a team usually needs three great starters to dominate a series.  After the Nationals lost the Chris Sale sweepstakes, they will be counting on Tanner Roark to be that #3 starter behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.  Recently, Roark has shown he can be that guy.  After being the odd man out a few years ago when the "Super Rotation" came to DC, Roark worked his way back into the rotation full time in 2016, winning 16 games with a 2.83 ERA in 210 innings.  He followed that up with a successful run in the WBC this spring.  If he pitches how he is capable of pitching, the Nationals may have their third ace without making a move.

Player to Watch

Koda Glover

At the end of the 2016 season, the Nationals had a farm system stocked full of talent poised to burst on the scene in 2017.  After the Adam Eaton trade, most of that talent is gone.  However, one player that is worth paying attention to is Koda Glover.  Glover, who played a little in the big leagues last season, is a live arm starting the season in the Nats' bullpen.  Under ideal circumstances, Glover becomes the reason why the Nationals didn't trade for a closer this offseason as he takes the job and runs with it.

2017 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in World Series

I think this is the year the Nationals finally do it!  Their lineup rivals the Cubs in talent and depth.  Their top three starting pitchers can rival the Mets.  The moves they made this offseason, especially the Adam Eaton trade, not only show a commitment to winning now, but also will greatly help the team be better this season.  However, the X factor for the Nationals is their manager.  This team has found the perfect balance of analytic, sabermetric front office with an old school, clubhouse manager in Dusty Baker.  Baker in DC is a perfect fit, and last year's success proves my point.  This team is strong and has the experience across the board to make the deep run in the postseason the city, and the league, has been waiting for.

Fearless Prediction

Trea Turner will start the All Star Game at shortstop.

In 2016, Trea Turner showed that he is a star in the making.  He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting, only losing to Corey Seager.  That was while only playing half a season (73 games) and playing out of position (centerfield instead of his original shortstop).  Yet he had a .342 average, 13 homers, 40 RBI's, and 33 steals.  Now he is the Opening Day shortstop and leadoff hitter.  By the end of the season, Trea Turner will be considered one of the best young shortstops in the game with names like Lindor, Correa, Diaz, Story, and Seager.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

For the past few years, the Baltimore Orioles have been stuck one step from the top.  In 2014, the made it to the ALCS.  In 2015, they missed the playoffs.  What will happen in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in AL East

2015 Result: 81-81, 3rd in AL East

I got their spot right on last season.  They entered the 2015 season without making any moves to move them forward, and they ended up stalling for the whole season while other teams passed them up.  Everyone saw this coming.  They needed to do something to improve their roster and didn't.  That was the result because of it.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

It was going to be really interesting to see if they did anything different this offseason after a quiet offseason last year cost them a chance to do something special.  They lost guys like Wei-Yin Chen, Steve Pearce, and Gerrardo Parra to free agency.  However, the biggest thing they did this offseason was re-sign first baseman Chris Davis.  Then they did actually bring in some outside help this offseason also, trading for Mark Trumbo and signing Pedro Alvarez and Yovani Gallardo.  They aren't blockbuster signings, but they definitely fit in what the O's are all about and will help the team out.  The Orioles also were a part of the weirdest story of the offseason, signing Dexter Fowler only to have the whole thing fall apart and Fowler end up back with the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Wieters

Matt Wieters, along with Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson, made history this offseason by becoming the first players to ever take their qualifying offers instead of testing free agency (I think some others are wishing they had done the same ... Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond to name a few).  Matt Wieters needs a bounce back season.  From 2011-2013, he made two All Star Teams, won two Gold Gloves, got some MVP votes, and hit 20+ home runs each season.  Then he had Tommy John surgery and has yet to return to that form since.  He only played in 75 games last season after playing almost double that in each season in that earlier stretch.  Not only are the Orioles counting on a return to past glory, but by accepting the qualifying offer, it shows Matt Wieters is hoping for the same thing so he can get his big pay day next offseason.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Tillman

The one consistent member of the Orioles pitching staff over the past four or five seasons has been Chris Tillman.  It shows just how much they believe in him to be the only cog that hasn't been a revolving door in that rotation.  However, last season was pretty rough for Tillman.  With Wei-Yin Chen moving on to Miami, Tillman is being counted on to be the ace, even with Yovani Gallardo in the fold.  He has to pitch like he did in 2013 and 2014 for the Orioles to have success in 2016.

Player to Watch

Dylan Bundy

It feels like Dylan Bundy has been the player to watch for Baltimore for 5 years now.  Well, that's because he has.  After being taken in the 2011 draft 4th overall, he made his big league debut in 2012.  Then, a series of injuries kept him from playing much since.  Now, because of those two games he played in 2012 at the age of 19, he is now potentially facing waivers if he does not crack the Opening Day roster.  His story is similar to Danny Hultzen, second overall pick by the Mariners in the same 2011 Draft.  His arm issues have held him back in the same way.  The only difference is Hultzen never made his debut so his service clock hasn't started yet.  It will be very interesting to see if Bundy makes the Orioles' roster, most likely in the bullpen if he does.  If he doesn't, there is a good chance he is not Oriole property when the season starts.

2016 Prediction

4th in AL East

Yes, the Orioles have made improvements to their roster, however if you really look at it, they really just replaced what they already had with comparable pieces.  Trumbo replaces Parra, Alvarez replaces Pearce, and Gallardo replaces Chen.  Those are comparable, if not inferior, replacements for every position (and Gallardo was a late addition).  I see them in the exact same spot as last year.  They are still good, but everyone else around them is getting better, and they will continue to fall down the standings of the AL East until they commit and make a splash.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado will be playing shortstop by the end of the season.

Manny Machado has become one of the best third basemen in the league.  However, his natural position is shortstop.  He came up as a third baseman because of how well J.J. Hardy had played at short.  It has always been in the back of everyone's mind that eventually, Manny Machado would end up at shortstop, the onl question was when.  Last year, J.J. Hardy had a terrible season as his age looked like it might have finally caught up with him a little.  If he struggles at all this season, look for him to be traded to finally clear the path for Machado to shine at his natural position.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles worked through injuries and disappointing seasons in 2014 to top one of the most competitive and discussed divisions in baseball.  Do they have the talent to repeat in 2015?

Last Season

96-66, 1st in AL East, lost to Royals in ALCS

The 2014 season for the Baltimore Orioles had to be considered an incredible achievement.  They finished the season with the second best record in the American League, swept their way through one of the best pitching staffs in baseball by beating the Tigers in the ALDS, and if it weren't for the buzz saw that was the 2014 Kansas City Royals, they win the pennant and maybe the whole thing.  It's pretty impressive on its own, but even more when you consider what the O's had to endure.  First, All Star catcher Matt Wieters missed most of the season with an injury.  The same could be said for third base phenom Manny Machado, who at least played half the season.  The breakout star of 2013, first baseman Chris Davis, showed his performance that year may have been a fluke as he finished with a batting average under .200 and a home run total that was cut in half.  On the pitching side, Ubaldo Jimenez, the only starter with any history of success, struggled again, and closer Tommy Hunter needed to be replaced mid-season due to lack of production.  When a list like this can be made for everything that went wrong, it's amazing they didn't finish in the cellar.  However, thanks to the emergence of guys like Nelson Cruz, Steve Pearce, Chris Tillman, and new closer Zach Britton, the Orioles dominated.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

After such a strong 2014 season, many people said the Orioles were only a few pieces away from being the World Series favorites heading into 2015.  However, instead of making those few moves, the O's were disturbingly quiet.  They let Nelson Cruz, their most productive hitter in 2014, sign with the Mariners in free agency.  Team leader, Nick Markakis, left to sign with the Braves, and they let one of the best setup men in baseball, Andrew Miller, sign with the division rival Yankees.  As far as additions to replace the lost offense or help sure up an inconsistent rotation, they signed Travis Snider to play rightfield.  So ... they basically did nothing.

Most Important Hitter

Manny Machado

One of the reasons (I'm assuming) the Orioles didn't feel a need to fill what appeared to be big voids in their lineup left by Cruz and Markakis is they are expecting to have healthy, productive seasons out of some of their stars that underwhelmed last year.  The brightest of those stars that need to step up is Manny Machado.  Heading into this season healthy, the O's are expecting him to be back at the level that made him an All Star and Gold Glove winner while leading the league in doubles at the age of 20 in 2013.  He needs to show that he is back to that level of play, if not better, while also showing he is future leader and face of the franchise.  That is quite the load for a young 22 year old.

Most Important Pitcher

Zach Britton

Last year, when Tommy Hunter started the year struggling, Zach Britton came out of nowhere to finally show some of the promise everyone was expecting to see out of him from the beginning as a highly-touted starting prospect.  2014 saw him earn his first save (ended up with 37 of them) and have his first ERA that didn't hover around 5.00 (1.65 ERA in 2014).  The question going into 2015 is did this highly-talented kid finally figure it out and put it all together, or, like his burly teammate Chris Davis, did he just catch lightning in a bottle for one great year and will go back to being mediocre.  The Orioles are counting on the former being the case.

Player to Watch

Dylan Bundy

It feel like the Orioles have been waiting for the arrival of Dylan Bundy forever.  As the 4th overall pick in 2011, Bundy made his big league debut in 2012 at the age of 19.  After missing a year with Tommy John, he was working his way back to top form in 2014.  Now, it looks like the O's top prospect is on the verge of being the star they have always hoped he would be.  Look for him to pop up sometime around mid-season in their rotation.  A guy with the talent of Dylan Bundy could explain why the Orioles didn't feel the need to go spend on a big time free agent for their rotation.

Prediction

3rd in AL East

When it is all said and done, the Orioles just don't have the firepower to be competitive, let alone dominant, in 2015.  With the loss of Cruz, Markakis, and Miller, too many things have to go right.  Matt Wieters has to be the guy that looks like the best catcher in baseball right away.  Chris Davis has to go back to being his 2013 self.  Steve Pearce has to continue to play above his talent level.  Zach Britton has to follow up his career year with another one.  Guys like Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen have to continue to lead the pitching staff and not have a down year.  Lastly, Manny Machado needs to be an MVP candidate.  The O's had the talent to lose players of that caliber, but now their margin of error is so much smaller.  Everything needs to go right for them to be great, and in a 162 game grind, that rarely happens.  Look for the Orioles to take a couple steps back this year, and then maybe they will try something (anything!) next offseason to actually improve their team.