2023 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

 #11

The Baltimore Orioles were by far the most surprising team in 2022, almost making the playoffs after a 110 loss season the year before.  Can they make another leap and reach the postseason in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#25 - 5th in AL East

MIH - Cedric Mullins

MIP - John Means

PTW - Adley Rutschman

2022 Results

#14 - 83-79, 5th in AL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Adley Rutschman

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Cionel Perez

The Baltimore Orioles hadn't had a winning record since 2016 when they lost to the Blue Jays and Jose Bautista's bat flip in the Wild Card Game.  Outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Orioles had lost more than 100 games for 3 straight seasons, earning the first overall pick twice, including the 2022 Draft.  So how did they go from 110 losses to the last AL team eliminated from playoff contention in one season?  Adley Rutschman.  No one player had a greater singular impact on their team than the arrival of Adley Rutschman.  He didn't make his big league debut till the end of May, and yet the former #1 overall pick was by far the Orioles best player.  He was their best hitter, he managed the pitching staff behind the plate.  If it wasn't for the superhuman season from Julio Rodriguez, Rutschman would have been an easy pick for Rookie of the Year.  With that said, the Orioles understood the goal wasn't to compete in 2022, but to compete for the next decade.  So instead of sending off prospects at the Trade Deadline to make a run, the Orioles instead sold off their closer Jorge Lopez and the former face of the franchise Trey Mancini.  Yet they still had a shot at a playoff spot in the last week of the season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles have so much young talent, their offseason just needed to complement what they already had.  They brought in pitchers Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin to bolster the rotation.  They signed second baseman Adam Frazier and traded for catcher James McCann to provide some veteran presence and depth.  The only significant subtraction was veteran second baseman Rougned Odor.

Most Important Hitter

Gunnar Henderson

It's rare that a rookie could be considered a team's most important hitter, but the Orioles are a rare team.  Gunnar Henderson, the top prospect in all of baseball, burst on the scene in 2022 playing in 34 games down the stretch.  In that time, he had an OPS+ of 123 (only Rutschman's was higher) and earned 0.9 WAR despite the small sample size.  This performance pushed him up to that top spot in the prospect lists.  Now, he is slated to be the Opening Day starting third baseman, and the Orioles are hoping they can get an instant impact out of Henderson like they got out of Rutschman last season.  Only 22 years old, will Henderson take some time to settle in to being a full time big leaguer, or do the Orioles have another instant superstar on their hands?

Most Important Pitcher

Dean Kremer

The weakness of the Orioles in 2022 was their pitching, which is probably why they brought in several additions to their starting rotation this offseason.  This issue was compounded by the loss of former All Star and Opening Day starter John Means to Tommy John surgery.  He won't be ready till at least mid-season.  One of the more pleasant surprises for the Orioles pitching staff in 2022 was Dead Kremer.  In only his third season in the big leagues, Kremer had a 124 ERA+ over 125 innings.  If he is able to improve on 2022, or even just repeat last year's performance, the Orioles will have a solid starter they could count on moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

Grayson Rodriguez

The Orioles have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball, ranked either 1st or 2nd in every rankings list.  It's easy to have a farm system this elite when you are as bad as the Orioles have been for this long.  Baltimore currently has 8 prospects in the Top 100 in baseball, with possibly up to 6 of them ready to contribute at the big league level in 2023.  Everyone is talking about Gunnar Henderson (even me), but he barely counts as a prospect anymore with the experience he got last season.  With the question marks in the pitching staff, Grayson Rodriguez seems like a more intriguing prospect.  Ranked 7th in the Top 100, and the 2nd best pitcher, Rodriguez has the potential to be the ace of the staff for years to come.  Rodriguez will start the season in AAA after some struggles in Spring Training, but he will be in this rotation at some point soon.

2023 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

I love this team!  Their performance in 2022 showed they have turned the corner and are ready to take another step.  Yes, they may be in the highly competitive AL East, but they were last year too and still almost made the playoffs.  Their lineup is a great mix of veterans and young phenoms.  The one question is if they can pitch enough.  If they can't, they might be able to score enough.

Fearless Prediction

The Orioles will have two of the top 3 finishers in AL Rookie of the Year.

Between Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles have two of the top potential rookies in the American League entering the season, and if the Orioles make the run I am predicting, then these two will also have to be two of the biggest producing rookies at the end of the season.  As the season draws to a close, watch for Gunnar and Grayson to emerge as young leaders of this team to go alongside Adley Rutschman.  It's also only a matter of time before last year's #1 overall pick, Jackson Holliday, breaks out in the next few seasons too.  The future has never been brighter in Baltimore.

2022 MLB Pre-Season Predictions: #30-21

Happy Opening Day!!!  One of my favorite things to do every year is take the month before the baseball season starts and do a preseason write-up and prediction article for each team.  Thanks to the lockout, a shortened Spring Training, and the crazy flurry of free agency signings during that shortened Spring Training, I did not have a chance to write these before the season starts.  With that said, I want to get my predictions out there in some way before the season gets going too much.  So here are teams #30-#21 in my pre-season power rankings.

#30

Oakland A's

2021 Prediction: #8, 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

2021 Fearless Prediction: Before Opening Day 2022, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson will be traded, a new ballpark deal is done, or the A's will announce a relocation.

2021 Result: #13, 86-76, 3rd in AL West

Most Important Hitter: Sean Murphy

Most Important Pitcher: Frankie Montas

Prospect to Watch: Cristian Pache

2022 Prediction: 5th in AL West

After a lackluster end to 2021, the A's (as I predicted) traded away or let walk away almost their entire roster (including their manager).  Now the A's are starting over as they do every few years, but this one feels different.  They stripped the roster down to the studs without a next wave ready to compete.  Their most important players are the only ones left, and it's only a matter of time before they get traded too.  Are they trying to alienate the fanbase to make a move to Las Vegas easier?  Maybe.  On a side note, what is Oakland doing?  Do they just hate having sports?  They have already watched the Raiders move to Vegas, the Warriors move to San Francisco, and now the A's are on their way out since they refuse to build a new stadium to replace the worst facility in American professional sports.  Sad to see for a once proud sports city.

#29

Pittsburgh Pirates

2021 Prediction: #30, 5th in NL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: Ke'Bryan Hayes will be an All Star and Rookie of the Year in 2021.

2021 Result: #27, 61-101, 5th in NL Central

Most Important Hitter: Bryan Reynolds

Most Important Pitcher: Mitch Keller

Prospect to Watch: Oneil Cruz

2022 Prediction: 5th in NL Central

The Pirates are a pretty lousy organization, shown by the fact that they just shelled out their biggest contract in franchise history at ... wait for it ... $70 million.  Then Ke'Bryan Hayes goes out and gets hurt in the first inning of Opening Day.  They seem to be the only team still concerned about service time manipulation by keeping Oneil Cruz in the minors to start the year because I think they are the only team that can't afford to sign a good player to a real contract.  Until they learn how to spend, they will only be good if they get lucky.

#28

Colorado Rockies

2021 Prediction: #28, 5th in NL West

2021 Fearless Prediction: Trevor Story will be traded before the Trade Deadline.

2021 Result: #21, 74-87, 4th in NL West

Most Important Hitter: Kris Bryant

Most Important Pitcher: German Marquez

Prospect to Watch: Elehuris Montero

2022 Prediction: 5th in NL West

The Rockies had an interesting offseason where they watched one of their stars leave in free agency while they brought another in.  What looked like a full blown rebuild got an uplift.  They don't have a lot of established players heading into this year though.  They should bounce back quick, but this year might be rough.

#27

Arizona Diamondbacks

2021 Prediction: #27, 4th in NL West

2021 Fearless Prediction: Madison Bumgarner will not be on the Diamondbacks roster at the start of 2022.

2021 Result: #29, 52-110, 5th in NL West

Most Important Hitter: Pavin Smith

Most Important Pitcher: Zac Gallen

Prospect to Watch: Alek Thomas

2022 Prediction: 4th in NL West

It's easy for the top of the NL West to rack up as many wins as they do when they have two door mats like the Rockies and Diamondbacks to deal with as many times as they do.  The Diamondbacks are trying, but they are so far behind the rest of the division (Rockies excluded) that it will take awhile for them to be relevant again.

#26

Cincinnati Reds

2021 Prediction: #19, 3rd in NL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: Over half of the Reds' Opening Day lineup will no longer be on the roster Opening Day 2022.

2021 Result: #14, 83-79, 3rd in NL Central

Most Important Hitter: Jonathan India

Most Important Pitcher: Luis Castillo

Prospect to Watch: Hunter Greene

2022 Prediction: 4th in NL Central

My fearless prediction came true as the Reds unloaded a ton of their strong core and hit the full reset button.  They have a lot of promise with guys like reigning ROY Jonathan India and phenom Hunter Greene, but their step back will take a few years to bounce back from.

#25

Baltimore Orioles

2021 Prediction: #25, 4th in AL East

2021 Fearless Prediction: Trey Mancini will win Comeback Player of the Year.

2021 Result: #30, 52-110, 5th in AL East

Most Important Hitter: Cedric Mullins

Most Important Pitcher: John Means

Prospect to Watch: Adley Rutschman

2022 Prediction: 5th in AL East

It feels like the Orioles are starting to turn the corner.  The problem is they are in a division with 4 other teams that are World Series contenders.  They won't compete this year, but they will be interesting.

#24

Washington Nationals

2021 Prediction: #12, 3rd in NL East

2021 Fearless Prediction: Max Scherzer and Ryan Zimmerman will play their last games in a Nationals uniform in 2021.

2021 Result: #26, 65-97, 5th in NL East

Most Important Hitter: Josh Bell

Most Important Pitcher: Josiah Gray

Prospect to Watch: Cade Cavalli

2022 Prediction: 5th in NL East

It was time for the Nationals to take their step back and start to rebuild, but what a run they had!  They have another couple steps to fall back all the way before they start building back up, but when they do, they should still have possibly the best hitter of his generation in Juan Soto.

#23

Miami Marlins

2021 Prediction: #20, 5th in NL East

2021 Fearless Prediction: 2021 will be the last time the Miami Marlins finish in the cellar of the NL East for the next decade.

2021 Result: #25, 67-95, 4th in NL East

Most Important Hitter: Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Most Important Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo

Prospect to Watch: Max Meyer

2022 Prediction: 4th in NL East

The Marlins fell back down to earth in 2021 after a magical 60 games in 2020.  Now they are back on schedule with a lot of fun young talent.  It will be tough to compete with the top of the division, but they will cause headaches for the top teams throughout the season.

#22

Cleveland Guardians

2021 Prediction: #17, 3rd in AL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: Shane Bieber will win a second straight Cy Young Award.

2021 Result: #16, 80-82, 2nd in AL Central

Most Important Hitter: Jose Ramirez

Most Important Pitcher: Shane Bieber

Prospect to Watch: Logan Allen

2022 Prediction: 5th in AL Central

The Guardians rely on one or two players more than any other team in the league.  If Jose Ramirez or Shane Bieber get hurt, they really don't have much of anything.  That's why they finally committed and paid Ramirez.  Scoring runs will be tough this year, but they can still pitch.  Bieber is the best and the leader, but not all they have.  My biggest issue with the Guardians this year ... can we stop this trend of rebranding a franchise but not changing a thing besides the name of the jersey?  The Guardians, the Commanders ... new name, exact same jersey.  It's going to take forever for people to get the name right because they look just like they did before.  Start over!

#21

Kansas City Royals

2021 Prediction: #24, 5th in AL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.

2021 Result: #22, 74-88, 4th in AL Central

Most Important Hitter: Salvador Perez

Most Important Pitcher: Zack Greinke

Prospect to Watch: Bobby Witt Jr.

2022 Prediction: 4th in AL Central

This season for the Royals is all about veterans imparting wisdom on the young up and coming starts.  That's why they bring back Zack Greinke.  This season in KC is all about Bobby Witt Jr. though.  How quickly he breaks out will determine how successful their season is.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#25

The Baltimore Orioles have spent most of the last 5 years as one of the worst teams in baseball.  Are they finally ready to turn the corner and start to compete again?

2020 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL East

MIH - Hanser Alberto

MIP - John Means

PTW - Ryan Mountcastle

FP - The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

2020 Results

#26 - 25-35 - 4th in AL East

The Orioles surprised everyone and jumped out to a hot start in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.  Eventually they cooled off, and probably thanks to the short season, did not have enough time to fall all the way back to the cellar of the division.  It was good to see the Orioles relevant again, even if it was just for a couple weeks.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles made some small adjustments to a budding young roster.  They replaced shortstop Jose Iglesias with veteran Freddy Galvis.  Second baseman Hanser Alberto moved on to the Royals.  On the pitching side, the Orioles traded away Alex Cobb while signing Felix Hernandez on a minor league deal.  The biggest addition for the Orioles this season wasn't a transaction at all.  Trey Mancini is back after a year of battling colon cancer.  He will be the strong veteran presence in the young clubhouse in Baltimore.

Most Important Pitcher

Anthony Santander

Through the 2020 season, Anthony Santander led the Orioles' roster in WAR while starting to emerge as a low key potential star.  Entering his age 26 season, he has been an above average hitter (in terms of OPS+) in both of his full seasons so far.  The Orioles are starting to reach that point in their rebuild where they are starting to see which young players they can start to count on to be a part of that young core moving forward.  Santander seems to be one of the centerpieces.

Most Important Pitcher

John Means

The Orioles have some great young pitching starting to work their way through the farm system.  At the top of the system though, right now they are a little thin.  Counting on guys like King Felix and Wade LeBlanc to be key pieces in the rotation are showing how they are just waiting for the young kids to be ready.  The one young pitcher that has started to establish himself in the big leagues is John Means.  After being an All Star in 2019, he had an average season in 2020.  He needs to bounce back and emerge as an ace to be a part of the plans moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

Adley Rutschman

At some point in the 2021 season, the Orioles' news cycle will start to focus on when it will be time to start the clock on former #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman.  The top overall pick in 2019 and the #2 overall prospect in all of baseball, Rutschman is a switch hitting catcher that is the future face of the Baltimore Orioles.  The only question is if he will announce his presence with authority this season or next.

2021 Prediction

4th in AL East

I fully realize predicting the Orioles to finish above the Red Sox this season is quite a bit of a stretch.  The Red Sox are pretty easily the more talented roster.  With that said, the Orioles had some pretty decent success in 2020, and for a young team like this to get a string of success like that, the confidence can only build knowing that they are capable of winning.  The Orioles seem to finally be moving up, while the Red Sox seem stagnant at best.  For that alone, it was worth predicting the Orioles to repeat in fourth place.

Fearless Prediction

Trey Mancini will win Comeback Player of the Year.

Okay, this isn't a very bold prediction but it is worth mentioning.  As soon as Trey Mancini sees the field in a regular season game and shows any shadow of the player he was before cancer struck, this award will pretty much be in the bag.  And fully deserved.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#30

I wasn't planning on writing my baseball preview articles this season.  I didn't think I was going to have the time (and I didn't).  Then the whole world shut down with a pandemic, and the baseball season was indefinitely postponed.  Needless to say, I all of a sudden have some time on my hands.  So to celebrate the week the baseball season was supposed to start, I am instead starting my slightly delayed look at the season that will be ... whenever we get around to it ... if we get around to it.  (My money is on Opening Day being the 4th of July.)

It is so disappointing to see this season delayed because there were so many fascinating storylines to follow.  Two of the biggest brands and best teams in baseball got even better by each adding one of the best players in the game.  Speaking of the best players in the game, the undisputed #1 of that list finally got a formidable right hand man.  Then there are the teams mired in controversy after a cheating scandal that led to year-long suspensions and references to Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe.  There are a couple superteams and a handful that are in the middle of a full rebuild, but you also have over 20 teams you could legitimately argue are serious playoff contenders.  No wonder rumors are flying to expand the playoffs (a plan which I love, but I don't think it will actually happen until baseball expands to 32 teams).  Even the rebuilding teams are starting to have some reasons to be excited as the stockpiling of prospects are starting to hit the big league field, however this delayed and most likely truncated season will hold back the development of a lot of young talen.  It is going to be an exciting season ... whenever it gets started.

With all that said, we are starting at the bottom and looking at the teams that really have the least to be excited about.  The Baltimore Orioles have been in full rebuild mode for several years now, finishing in the cellar three straight years and bottoming out in 2018 when they lost 115 games.  Last season saw a new GM and manager, but it also saw another 100 loss season.  Will 2020 bring a noticeable improvement or more of the same?

2019 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL East

MIH: Chris Davis

MIP: Alex Cobb

PTW: Dillon Tate

FP: The Orioles will pick in the top 5 in the MLB Draft for five straight seasons.

2019 Results

#29 - 54-108, 5th in AL East

The Orioles waited way too long to start their rebuild which almost guaranteed they were facing some ridiculously lean years for quite some time.  The players I predicted their success would be dependent on failed miserably.  Chris Davis followed up the historically bad 2018 with a slightly better but still really bad 2019.  The pure power hitter hit below .180 for the second straight year while also failing to top the 20 home run mark, finishing with a -1.2 WAR.  Entering his age 34 season with three years left on a historically bad 7 year, $161 million deal, he is untradeable and probably uncuttable.  As far their Most Important Pitcher, Alex Cobb only pitched in three games before the rest of the season was lost to a hip injury.  He is also entering his age 34 season and signed through 2022, although on a slightly more bearable deal.  Even my pick for their Prospect to Watch floundered as Dillon Tate, once a highly-touted prospect, could only get 21 innings in.  He is barely staying in the top 30 of Baltimore's prospect list.  There was very little to be excited about in 2019 for the Orioles.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles also did not do much over the offseason to excite their fan base.  Their best hitter in 2019, Jonathan Villar, was traded to Miami for a minor leaguer.  The pitcher who had been touted as their ace of the future (although never fully living up to the hype), Dylan Bundy, was traded to the Angels.  Coming in were only veteran placeholders like shortstop Jose Iglesias and starting pitcher Wade LeBlanc.

Most Important Hitter

Hanser Alberto

Last year, I said the Orioles' most important players were the guys that could build trade stock so they could bring back some value.  They don't really have any of those anymore like I already said.  It is now time for the Orioles to take a true step forward, and that means players like Hanser Alberto need to continue to develop into potential stars.  Alberto's success last season allowed for the Orioles to trade Jonathan Villar and make Alberto their everyday second baseman.  He was definitely a bright spot in 2019, hitting over .300 with 12 homers and 51 RBI's.  If the Orioles are going to be better this year, players like Hanser Alberto, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander need to prove they are ready to be daily contributors and possible stars.

Most Important Pitcher

John Means

If Alberto was a bright spot among the hitters, John Means was definitely the bright spot in the pitching staff.  The Orioles' lone All Star in 2019, Means had a great season, posting an ERA+ of 131 and finishing 2nd in the Rookie of the Year vote behind only Yordan Alvarez of the Astros.  Now with Dylan Bundy gone and Alex Cobb coming off injury, Means will be looked at as the ace heading into the season.  If he continues to develop, he is up to the task and could be the anchor a young team like this needs to move forward.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Mountcastle

The Orioles have four prospects in the top 100, with last year's #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman topping out at #4.  However, Ryan Mountcastle is the one closest to the big leagues.  A former first round pick in 2015, this first baseman has hit at every level, even winning the AAA MVP last season and the Orioles Minor League Player of the Year award.  At some point in 2020, the Orioles will give up on Chris Davis, either by permanently benching him or cutting him and eating the money.  Either way, he will not block Ryan Mountcastle from making the big leagues for long.  He is a future cornerstone the Orioles will try and build on.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL East

This year will be another year of disappointment for the Orioles.  They seem to be on the trajectory the Astros took at the beginning of the 2010's.  Be really bad for 3-5 years and build up draft picks and prospects that will hopefully lead the team to the promised land at some point in the next 10 years.  The Orioles have already bottomed out, but they aren't ready to get better yet.  Look for this to be the third year in a row they earn a top five draft pick.

Fearless Prediction

The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

Chris Davis is set to make $23 million this year and still has $69 million on his contract.  If he gets cut, those numbers very easily could be greater than the rest of the roster.  If Alex Cobb gets cut too (which is possible if he doesn't bounce back from his injury), then the Orioles will definitely be paying more money to players not in uniform than they will for players that are.  It is never a good thing, but it is sometimes necessary to take the steps forward a franchise needs.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#30

Today might be Oscar Sunday in the movie world, but this weekend also started Spring Training games in baseball!  This is one of my favorite times of year.  The longest, most grueling season of all the sports brings about optimism and hope for all 30 teams.

Spring Training comes at the end of a wild off-season that saw two of the game's superstars change teams (well, one isn't quite settled yet).  Let me wrap up the off-season in one sentence.  The news of the off-season was more about how there was very little action once again as the market slowed to a halt waiting for the big names to sign while the big names had an epic stare down waiting to see who would sign first so the other could ask for more money and so many teams were interested they didn't want to sign anyone else until they knew for a fact they wouldn't be getting the superstars so many solid players are still sitting unsigned even though camp has already opened for all 30 teams.  That's the story of the 2019 off-season in one big run-on sentence for you.

Each season, I walk through the league and give a preview of each team's upcoming season and how they will fare.  This season feels a little more unpredictable than most with so many teams showing they are ready to compete.  We will go through the league from the bottom to the top, ending with my prediction for this year's World Series champion.

Starting at the bottom means starting with my predicted worst team in the league this upcoming season.  It may just be the same as the worst team in the league last season.

2018 Predictions

4th in AL East

Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton will all end the season on the Orioles' roster.

2018 Results

47-115, 5th in AL East

I knew the Orioles were on the decline heading into 2018, but 2018 was an all-out failure of epic proportions.  The 2018 Orioles had the 15th worst season in baseball history, and outside of the 2003 Tigers that lost 119 games, they had the worst winning percentage of any team since the 1960's.  It was an all-time horrible season.  Only two players on their team posted a WAR above 2.0, and both of those players (Manny Machado and Kevin Gausman) were traded at the Trade Deadline.  That leads me to my other prediction for last season.  The Orioles held on way too long before finally deciding to try to rebuild.  I thought they were going to continue to live in denial and refuse to trade their top players for the prospects needed to start over.  However, when you are that bad, it is hard to live in denial.  Machado and Britton were traded, along with Gausman, Brad Brach, and (surprisingly) Jonathan Schoop, who they gave up on after one disappointing season.  That helped start the rebuild of a lackluster farm system.

Additions / Subtractions

When a team like the Orioles opt to tear down and re-build, especially after that awful 2018 season, the subtractions far outweigh the additions.  In addition to the crew traded mid-season last year, the O's also said goodbye to infielder Tim Beckham and Adam Jones, the face of the franchise for most of the last decade.  The other notable subtractions bring about the most notable additions.  2018 saw the end of GM Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter.  Replacing these two old school baseball guys are two new school thinkers, new GM Mike Elias and new manager Brandon Hyde, formerly the bench coach for the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Chris Davis

Although the rebuild has started, the Orioles have a few bad contracts on the books with some underwhelming veterans that they would love to move.  The biggest of these is Chris Davis.  Davis had a historically bad year in 2018, hitting only .168 while striking out 192 times.  His strikeouts actually were higher than his batting average.  If that isn't an MLB record, it should be.  To top it off, he got paid $23 million for this production, which resulted in a -2.8 WAR, and is signed thru 2022.  This may go down as the worst contract in baseball history.  At this point, the only way Chris Davis can be valuable to the Orioles is play well enough to give him any sort of trade value so they might be able to get a prospect or two for him instead of just releasing him and eating all that money.  Davis's production (or lack of) will be one of the more interesting stories to watch throughout the Orioles' season.

Most Important Pitcher

Alex Cobb

Alex Cobb is in a similar position as Chris Davis.  Cobb signed late last offseason with the Orioles for 4 years, $57 million.  It seemed like a decent deal considering his production up to that point.  However, he was one of many disappointments in Baltimore.  Also, his signing was strange as they should have been working to rebuild, not sign veteran starters that won't be around long enough to be relevant.  Cobb needs a bounce back season so he can build up some trade value and be moved for pieces that will impact the Orioles' future.

Prospect to Watch

Dillon Tate

This season is not going to be a good one for the Orioles, however they have the potential of being pretty exciting come the second half of the season.  Six of the Orioles' top eight prospects are either scheduled to be ready for the big leagues in 2019 or have already had a taste of big league ball.  I was tempted to go with one of their top prospects here, like outfielder Yusniel Diaz (acquired in the Machado deal) or third baseman Ryan Mountcastle (2015 1st round pick), however they probably won't see the big leagues until 2020 to save some service time.  Instead, the player worth watching is going to be Dillon Tate.  At one point, Tate was the 4th overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Rangers and was thought to be one of the top power arms in the minors.  However, some struggles with injuries and inconsistent velocity have led to two different trades in his short career; first going to the Yankees in 2016 for Carlos Beltran, then to the Orioles last year in the Zach Britton deal.  If Tate can stay healthy and recapture what made him such a touted prospect, he could be a pleasant surprise for the O's in 2019.

2019 Prediction

5th in AL East

There are a lot of unknowns coming up in the 2019 season.  However, one of the safest bets of the upcoming season is that the Orioles will finish in the AL East cellar.  Denying the thought of rebuilding for so long and refusing to build for the future has left a below average farm system and a less than competitive major league roster.  They are going to be bad, and it might end up worse than last year.

Fearless Prediction

The Orioles will pick in the top 5 in the MLB Draft for five straight seasons.

This is a long term rebuild in Baltimore.  It is going to take them awhile to be competitive again.  Also, being historically bad to build up a farm system has been proven to work (look at the Astros and Nationals).  That is what the Orioles need to do.  They already have the top pick this year.  They have a good chance at losing their way to the top pick in next year's draft as well.  Their prospects will start to work their way to the big leagues in the next couple years, but this farm system has little elite talent.  It is going to take a couple waves of prospects to get them back to being competitive, especially in that division.  Look for the Orioles to be one of the worst teams in baseball for the foreseeable future.  Trust the process!

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#23

The Baltimore Orioles had a very disappointing season in 2017, going from the playoffs to the cellar.  Which team will we see in 2018?

2017 Predictions

2nd in AL East

Manny Machado will be starting at shortstop by the end of the season.

2017 Results

75-87, 5th in AL East

The Orioles fought through some key injuries and some low production out of some key performers to finish at the bottom of a very competitive AL East.  As core players like Adam Jones and Chris Davis begin to show some age, players like Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini emerged as potential stars moving forward.  As for Manny Machado, he did not have his best year.  Add this to the emergence of Tim Beckham at shortstop, and Machado was forced to stay at third base (at least until the end of that season).

Additions / Subtractions

Once again, the story of the Orioles' off-season was their inability to make any moves to improve.  They made some minor moves like adding Colby Rasmus (coming off his year sabbatical from the game) to replace Seth Smith, and signing Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman after the prices fell low enough.  In a year that many people think is the last of their current window (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton have expiring contracts at the end of the season), they once again failed the offseason.  The biggest move they made was finally giving in to Machado's wishes of playing shortstop, even though they had Tim Beckham emerge as a quality shortstop and Machado is not projected to be on the roster next year.  Nothing they did made sense.

Most Important Hitter

Manny Machado

There are a lot of players in this lineup that could be in this spot.  Jonathan Schoop is looking to repeat his monster production from last year.  Chris Davis is trying to return to the monster seasons he had a few years back.  Mark Trumbo is trying to prove 2016 wasn't a fluke after a poor 2017.  With all that said, this season for the Orioles will be defined by what happens with Manny Machado.  He is controversially switching positions.  He is in a contract year.  Many thought he should have been traded this offseason.  Many believe he will be traded by the Trade Deadline.  Most assume this is his last Opening Day in an Orioles uniform.  What happens with Machado will define the Orioles' season.

Most Important Pitcher

Zach Britton

Similarly to Machado, Zach Britton will play a huge role in how successful the Orioles are this season.  His situation is very different though.  After rupturing his Achilles last season, Britton will not see the field until the end of May at the earliest.  Much like Machado, everyone assumes his days in Baltimore are numbered.  If he comes back and shows he is the dominant Zach Britton, it not only help out the Orioles but it makes him much more valuable in the potential trade market.  If he can't get back his dominance, the Orioles just lost the value of one of their best players.

Prospect to Watch

Austin Hays

Now let's talk about someone that will be on the Orioles' roster after this season is over.  Austin Hays is the top prospect in the organization.  A natural centerfielder, Hays got some time at the end of last season playing corner outfield for the O's.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the everyday rightfielder after some time as he waits for Adam Jones to potentially move on after 2018.

2018 Prediction

4th in AL East

The Orioles still have some great talent.  Machado is a stud, Adam Jones still has some production left in the tank, and the bullpen is solid.  However, this organization is a mess.  Their lack of activity the last few offseasons will not allow them to compete in 2018.  The whole season will be a giant distraction waiting to see what will happen with Machado.  In the meantime, what could have been one last run will turn out to be a dumpster fire.  I had them in the cellar before the Rays completely dismantled their roster after Spring Training started.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton will all end the season on the Orioles' roster.

This will be a lost season in Baltimore.  Logic says that when you have a lost season, you trade expiring contracts to contenders for prospects that will help you build back up.  However, the Orioles haven't done anything resembling logic for several years.  They will hold onto their assets all season, refusing to trade.  They will sign them to qualifying offers in the offseason and collect the draft pick compensation when they sign elsewhere.  Adam Jones is the only one with a chance to return, but with the direction the O's are going, I wouldn't want to.  Cut bait and run!