2018 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

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The Baltimore Orioles had a very disappointing season in 2017, going from the playoffs to the cellar.  Which team will we see in 2018?

2017 Predictions

2nd in AL East

Manny Machado will be starting at shortstop by the end of the season.

2017 Results

75-87, 5th in AL East

The Orioles fought through some key injuries and some low production out of some key performers to finish at the bottom of a very competitive AL East.  As core players like Adam Jones and Chris Davis begin to show some age, players like Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini emerged as potential stars moving forward.  As for Manny Machado, he did not have his best year.  Add this to the emergence of Tim Beckham at shortstop, and Machado was forced to stay at third base (at least until the end of that season).

Additions / Subtractions

Once again, the story of the Orioles' off-season was their inability to make any moves to improve.  They made some minor moves like adding Colby Rasmus (coming off his year sabbatical from the game) to replace Seth Smith, and signing Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman after the prices fell low enough.  In a year that many people think is the last of their current window (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton have expiring contracts at the end of the season), they once again failed the offseason.  The biggest move they made was finally giving in to Machado's wishes of playing shortstop, even though they had Tim Beckham emerge as a quality shortstop and Machado is not projected to be on the roster next year.  Nothing they did made sense.

Most Important Hitter

Manny Machado

There are a lot of players in this lineup that could be in this spot.  Jonathan Schoop is looking to repeat his monster production from last year.  Chris Davis is trying to return to the monster seasons he had a few years back.  Mark Trumbo is trying to prove 2016 wasn't a fluke after a poor 2017.  With all that said, this season for the Orioles will be defined by what happens with Manny Machado.  He is controversially switching positions.  He is in a contract year.  Many thought he should have been traded this offseason.  Many believe he will be traded by the Trade Deadline.  Most assume this is his last Opening Day in an Orioles uniform.  What happens with Machado will define the Orioles' season.

Most Important Pitcher

Zach Britton

Similarly to Machado, Zach Britton will play a huge role in how successful the Orioles are this season.  His situation is very different though.  After rupturing his Achilles last season, Britton will not see the field until the end of May at the earliest.  Much like Machado, everyone assumes his days in Baltimore are numbered.  If he comes back and shows he is the dominant Zach Britton, it not only help out the Orioles but it makes him much more valuable in the potential trade market.  If he can't get back his dominance, the Orioles just lost the value of one of their best players.

Prospect to Watch

Austin Hays

Now let's talk about someone that will be on the Orioles' roster after this season is over.  Austin Hays is the top prospect in the organization.  A natural centerfielder, Hays got some time at the end of last season playing corner outfield for the O's.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the everyday rightfielder after some time as he waits for Adam Jones to potentially move on after 2018.

2018 Prediction

4th in AL East

The Orioles still have some great talent.  Machado is a stud, Adam Jones still has some production left in the tank, and the bullpen is solid.  However, this organization is a mess.  Their lack of activity the last few offseasons will not allow them to compete in 2018.  The whole season will be a giant distraction waiting to see what will happen with Machado.  In the meantime, what could have been one last run will turn out to be a dumpster fire.  I had them in the cellar before the Rays completely dismantled their roster after Spring Training started.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton will all end the season on the Orioles' roster.

This will be a lost season in Baltimore.  Logic says that when you have a lost season, you trade expiring contracts to contenders for prospects that will help you build back up.  However, the Orioles haven't done anything resembling logic for several years.  They will hold onto their assets all season, refusing to trade.  They will sign them to qualifying offers in the offseason and collect the draft pick compensation when they sign elsewhere.  Adam Jones is the only one with a chance to return, but with the direction the O's are going, I wouldn't want to.  Cut bait and run!

2015 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

After an uneventful 2014 season that saw a fourth straight losing season, the San Diego Padres had arguably the most exciting offseason in recent memory.  Will all the moves lead to success in 2015?

Last Season

77-85, 3rd in NL West

It could be said that the Padres were one of the most boring teams in baseball in 2014.  They had a solid pitching staff, but a lack of offense led to a sub-par season.  They only reason their record and standing were that good is because they happened to have the Rockies and the Diamondbacks in their division.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

To say the Padres' lineup went through a transformation this offseason would be a grand understatement.  Of the 2014 Opening Day starting lineup, only two players (Jedd Gyorko, Yonder Alonso) will remain come Opening Day 2015.  Many of the former starters will now be backing up the likes of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Will Middlebrooks, and Derek Norris.  All these players were acquired via blockbuster deals this offseason.  Add to that pitching ace and staff mentor James Shields, and you have gone from one of the most boring teams in the league to the of the best and most exciting.  Who cares what they lost?  They upgraded every position around the diamond.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Kemp

The new heart of the Padres' batting lineup now features the likes of Justin Upton and Derek Norris.  However, the player that may determine the success or failure of the 2015 season is Matt Kemp.  Only a few years removed from being votes away from winning an MVP, Kemp's career is on the rebound.  After some injury plagued seasons, he finally seemed to be back on the right track in the second half of 2014.  Kemp had, however, overstayed his welcome in the extremely crowded Dodger outfield.  If he was going to make it back to who he once was, it would be for someone else ... like the Padres.  Now the Padres are counting on the end of 2014 being a sign of things to come instead of a flash of what could have been if it weren't for another injury.

Most Important Pitcher

Andrew Cashner

After being the Padres' Opening Day starter in 2014, Andrew Cashner never lived up to the billing of ace.  Suffering through an injury plagued season, he only tallied 5 wins last year.  Now with Big Game James taking the pressure off, Cashner can live up to his potential and be the type of guy that can seemlessly slot in behind the new ace of the staff.

Player to Watch

Austin Hedges

The Padres' number two prospect, catcher Austin Hedges, is not slated to be ready until next season.  However, if they get a chance at a postseason run, look for him to be a potential impact bat off the bench a la Andrew Susac last year for the Giants.  Also, watch for Hedges to get an early look if there is an injury to Derek Norris.  However, with most of last year's starters now serving as this year's bench, don't look for many, if any, rookies to pop up with any significant time this year.

Prediction

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

This complete overhaul of the roster has the Padres poised for a postseason already in 2015.  They brought in enough proven bats that Petco Park will not even prevent them from scoring runs.  Add to their young pitching staff a solid ace and another year of experience, and the Padres are destined to make the biggest leap in the standings and be a contender for the foreseeable future.