2023 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #6

The San Diego Padres continued to spend more than almost any other team this offseason.  Will they get over the hump and win a World Series in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#6 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Yu Darvish

PTW - C.J. Abrams

2022 Results

#4 - 89-73, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLCS

Highest WAR (Position) - Manny Machado

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Yu Darvish

The 2022 San Diego Padres could be summed up with three players: one was one of the best in the league, one never showed up, and one showed up mid-season.  First, Manny Machado may have had his best season ever, earning a runner up finish in the MVP race.  Second, Fernando Tatis Jr. got hurt before the season started in a motorcycle accident, and right before he was ready to return, got suspended for PED's, potentially tainting an entire career of one of baseball's brightest young stars.  Third, the Padres showed they are willing to continue to double down by trading for one of the best hitters in the game Juan Soto at the Trade Deadline.  They rode the talent on the field to the NLCS, but no one was beating the Phillies in their run to the NL pennant.

Additions / Subtractions

Just when you think the Padres may have reached their limit in payroll, they doubled down again.  They seemed to be in on every big name free agent, finally landing shortstop Xander Bogaerts on (another) huge deal.  They signed Manny Machado to an extension that was (another) huge deal.  They solidified the rotation with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.  Then, as if they didn't have enough already, they went to the veteran market and picked up Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.  There were a couple subtractions, like Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, Sean Manaea, and Mike Clevinger, but I think the additions outweigh the subtractions.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the most fascinating storylines in all of baseball entering the 2023 season is what will happen with Fernando Tatis Jr.  The last time we saw him, he was an MVP candidate, leading the league in home runs, and earning every bit of his newly signed 14 year megadeal.  However, even then his durability and overall health were being questioned as he was starting to see some time in the outfield to protect the wear and tear on his body.  Then he gets hurt making a dumb decision.  Then he compounds that by getting caught for PED's.  Then the Padres go out and sign another shortstop to an 11 year deal.  Now Tatis will have to wait another month before he finally is allowed back from his suspension, and he essentially has lost his job.  He finished 2021 as possibly the face of baseball.  Now he is being looked at as, at best, the 4th best player on his team.  What will he be this year?  How much did PED's possibly impact his past performance, or was it another dumb decision during his injury recovery?  Who is this player???  He's only 23 year old too!  Does he go back to his MVP-caliber 2021 form?  If he does, the Padres will be special.  Is he put off by losing his job, switching positions, and still sitting out?  If so, he could be a negative influence in that locker room that destroys one of the most talented teams in the league.  No one knows!  Watching what happens with Tatis will be one of the biggest storylines of the entire season.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres will roll out possibly the best lineup in all of baseball in 2023, however their pitching staff has a lot more questions in it.  One of the players that could be an X-factor for the whole pitching staff in Blake Snell.  In 2018, Snell was on another planet for the Rays.  He had a 217 ERA+ that year and won the Cy Young.  Since then, he hasn't even sniffed that level of production.  His best season since was the COVID-shortened 2020 season with a 127 ERA+.  Last season was next best at 111 ERA+, but he only threw 128 innings.  Now he is entering his third season with the Padres, which is also his contract year at age 30.  If he can return to some level of dominance, it not only will solve a lot of possible questions with the Padres pitching staff, but it will also earn him one last big payday heading into free agency next offseason.

Prospect to Watch

Jay Groome

With all the big spending and blockbuster trades the Padres have done the last few seasons, it has completely depleted their farm system.  Ranked in the bottom third of MLB farm systems, the Padres only tout 2 prospects in the Top 100, with neither ready to contribute this season.  In fact, only 2 prospects in their top 10 even have a chance to play in the big leagues this season.  The more intriguing of these prospects in their 9th best prospect, Jay Groome.  When drafted in 2016, this 6'6" 262lb left-handed pitcher was thought to be one of the top prospects in the draft.  Then injuries and missed time completely derailed his development to the point that the Padres acquired him as an afterthought last season from the Red Sox in the Eric Hosmer trade.  He stuff isn't elite, but he still has pretty good makeup.  Look for him to get a chance to earn a rotation spot if the injury bug hits the Padres this season.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

It might be a hot take to have the Padres this low, but there are just way too many elite National League teams.  With that said, the Padres are probably the most talented team in the league.  They also feel like they could completely implode on themselves.  They do have one of the best managers around in Bob Melvin, and they have basically a player/coach at this point in Nelson Cruz.  So hopefully that stabilizes some of the volatility.  There are still a lot of questions with their rotation.  When they win the division and go on to win the World Series, this will look like a really bad take, but it's what I'm going with right now.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Padres superstars will not be on their roster at the start of the 2024 season.

The spending has to stop at some point, right?  Right?!?  They have paid out huge money to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yu Darvish.  However, they have yet to lock up Juan Soto beyond this season.  He might need the biggest contract of all of them.  I could see the Padres let him walk in free agency ... or maybe they sign him and trade Tatis ... or maybe they trade Soto mid-season to get something for him ... or maybe they just double down one more time and sign Soto and just keep it all.  They have to run out of money at some point though ... I think.

2022 MLB Pre-Season Predictions: #10-1

We may be over a week into the season, but I wanted to finish my predictions before we got too far in.  Here's the top 10!

#10

Philadelphia Phillies

2021 Prediction: #14, 4th in NL East

2021 Fearless Prediction: Joe Girardi will be fired after the season.

2021 Result: #15, 82-80, 2nd in NL East

Most Important Hitter: Bryce Harper

Most Important Pitcher: Ranger Suarez

Prospect to Watch: Bryson Stott

2022 Prediction: 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

Bryce Harper rode a hot second half to the NL MVP.  If he is able to put another season together like that, it might finally be the time for this Phillies core group to make a postseason run.  If not, this will truly be the end of Joe Girardi's run in Philly.  It might also mean the dismantling of this roster.

#9

Los Angeles Angels

2021 Prediction: #16, 3rd in AL West

2021 Fearless Prediction: Justin Upton and Dexter Fowler will be traded for prospects at the Trade Deadline.

2021 Result: #19, 77-85, 4th in AL West

Most Important Hitter: Anthony Rendon

Most Important Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard

Prospect to Watch: Reid Detmers

2022 Prediction: 1st in AL West, lose in Wild Card Round

The success or failure of the Angels all has to do with health.  If Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, and Syndergaard all stay healthy for the majority of the season, then the Angels could surprise everyone and come away with this division.  Can you imagine the hysteria around the league if Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani finally play their first postseason games?  It would only make sense if they lose in the first round.

#8

Seattle Mariners

2021 Prediction: #22, 4th in AL West

2021 Fearless Prediction: The Mariners will have four straight Rookies of the Year.

2021 Result: #10, 90-72, 2nd in AL West

Most Important Hitter: Jesse Winker

Most Important Pitcher: Logan Gilbert

Prospect to Watch: Julio Rodriguez

2022 Prediction: 3rd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

As a Mariners fan, it scares me to place them this high in my preseason rankings.  Maybe that's why I'm predicting them to finish 3rd, but still make the playoffs and get out of the Wild Card Round.  The M's were a surprise success last year and have definitely upgraded the rotation and the lineup.  If everything pays off, the longest playoff draught around should end.

#7

Houston Astros

2021 Prediction: #13, 2nd in AL West

2021 Fearless Prediction: One of the Astros three core players left is playing their last season as an Astro.

2021 Result: #2, 95-67, 1st in AL West, lost in World Series

Most Important Hitter: Kyle Tucker

Most Important Pitcher: Justin Verlander

Prospect to Watch: Jeremy Pena

2022 Prediction: 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

How many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  After the 2019 season, Gerrit Cole (3rd in team WAR) signs with the Yankees.  After the 2020 season, George Springer (team leader in WAR) signs with the Blue Jays.  After the 2021 season, Carlos Correa (team leader in WAR) signs with the Twins.  Somehow they keep excelling.  They have to be coming to the end of this magical run though.

#6

San Diego Padres

2021 Prediction: #9, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

2021 Fearless Prediction: The San Diego Padres will win the NL West in 2022.

2021 Result: #16, 79-83, 3rd in NL West

Most Important Hitter: Manny Machado

Most Important Pitcher: Yu Darvish

Prospect to Watch: C.J. Abrams

2022 Prediction: 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

The Padres had an epic meltdown in 2021, going from one of the best teams in baseball in the first half to looking like a mess in the second half.  Now they have one of the best managers in the game, one of the best young stars in the game, and still one of the best storylines in the game.  The Padres are still ready to break out.  They might not win the division this year, but they have to take a step forward.

#5

Milwaukee Brewers

2021 Prediction: #15, 2nd in NL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: The Brewers will have no offensive players make the All Star Team.

2021 Result: #3, 95-67, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLDS

Most Important Hitter: Christian Yelich

Most Important Pitcher: Corbin Burnes

Prospect to Watch: Ethan Small

2022 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

The Brewers rode one of the best pitching staffs in baseball to another playoff run.  They will need a repeat performance from the pitchers, led by reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, and a resurgence from former MVP Christian Yelich, to make a deep run in 2022.

#4

New York Mets

2021 Prediction: #7, 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

2021 Fearless Prediction: Robinson Cano has played his last game in the big leagues.

2021 Result: #17, 77-85, 3rd in NL East

Most Important Hitter: Francisco Lindor

Most Important Pitcher: Max Scherzer

Prospect to Watch: Brett Baty

2022 Prediction: 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

If it was possible to buy a championship, the Mets did so this offseason.  Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Chris Bassitt ... they definitely spent the most money over the offseason.  Now they have an All Star lineup with an old school veteran manager in Buck Showalter.  They just might have what it takes to make a deep run in 2022.

#3

Chicago White Sox

2021 Prediction: #2, 1st in AL Central, lose in World Series

2021 Fearless Prediction: Tony La Russa wins AL Manager of the Year.

2021 Result: #6, 93-69, 1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

Most Important Hitter: Luis Robert

Most Important Pitcher: Michael Kopech

Prospect to Watch: Yoelqui Cespedes

2022 Prediction: 1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

The White Sox have put together a terrific roster that looks ready to make a deep run in the postseason.  They have had some experience the last few years.  Even though they are starting the season with a bunch of injuries, they look ready to take another step forward this year.

#2

Los Angeles Dodgers

2021 Prediction: #3, 1st in NL West, lose in NLCS

2021 Fearless Prediction: This is the last year Clayton Kershaw wears Dodgers blue.

2021 Result: #2, 106-56, 2nd in NL West, lose in NLCS

Most Important Hitter: Cody Bellinger

Most Important Pitcher: Julio Urias

Prospect to Watch: Michael Busch

2022 Prediction: 1st in NL West, lose in World Series

The amount of talent on the Dodgers roster is borderline ridiculous.  To pick anyone other than the Dodgers to win it all should be considered controversial.  It's also extremely boring.  On top of that, the only time the Dodgers actually pulled out a championship during this run was the COVID-shortened 2020 season.  They will be right there again in 2022, but I have them just short once again.

#1

Toronto Blue Jays

2021 Prediction: #5, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

2021 Fearless Prediction: The Blue Jays will trade for a closer before Memorial Day.

2021 Result: #9, 91-71, 4th in AL East

Most Important Hitter: George Springer

Most Important Pitcher: Jose Berrios

Prospect to Watch: Gabriel Moreno

2022 Prediction: 1st in AL East, win World Series

No team has been through more adversity over the last two years than the Toronto Blue Jays.  The 2020 season was spent in Buffalo, the 2021 season was split between their Spring Training home, Buffalo, and finally Toronto when COVID protocols allowed the border to be opened enough to let them travel there.  They also play in probably the best division in baseball.  They also have one of the greatest young cores in the game.  They are battle tested, they have a perennial MVP candidate ... as long as their pitching can hold out, they have to be a candidate for the title.  I can see it happen in 2022!

2021 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #9

The San Diego Padres were one of the most exciting young teams in all of baseball in 2020, and they followed that up with the most exciting offseason of any team in the league.  Will all that excitement lead to a deep postseason run in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL West

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Garrett Richards

PTW - MacKenzie Gore

2020 Results

#3 - 37-23, 2nd in NL West, lost in NLDS

Everyone knew the Padres were on the verge of being a contender for several years now.  They had built up an elite farm system and were surrounding that young talent with some great veteran stars.  It was just a matter of when.  In a shortened season like 2020, I didn't see the jump happening, but it did.  Slam Diego became must-see TV, with mid-season trades for pitcher Mike Clevinger, catcher Aaron Nola, and closer Trevor Rosenthal showing they were ready to commit to this team's success.  But the couldn't win the division, despite the third best record in all of baseball, thanks to the Dodgers.  And they couldn't advance far in the postseason thanks to the Dodgers.  There's a theme here...

Additions / Subtractions

You would think a team coming off such a huge successful year like this with a farm system bursting with talent might let their talent naturally take the next step forward.  Not the Padres!  They saw that Dodger superteam in front of them and tooled up to try and take them down.  So instead they used their farm system to trade for Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove to make their rotation elite (and to make up for the injury to Mike Clevinger).  They signed reliever Mark Melancon to replace Trevor Rosenthal in the back of the bullpen.  The only real addition to the lineup was a move for depth, adding Korean standout infielder Ha-Seong Kim.  They also locked up their young superstar, Fernando Tatis Jr., through 2034!  I didn't know it was possible for the third best team in baseball to improve this much.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

He is the league's next superstar.  He is possibly the next face of the sport.  He just signed a 14 year megadeal.  He is the 22 year old leader of the most exciting team in baseball.  He's also never played more than 84 games in a season at the big league level.  For as amazing and potentially legendary Tatis Jr. is, there are still some serious question marks heading into 2021.  He finished 3rd for Rookie of the Year in 2019, playing only 84 games due to injury.  He finished 4th in MVP in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, playing in 59 of the team's 60 games.  How will his young body hold up under 162?  All indications are that this isn't a problem, but he's never done it.  If he is able to put in a full season, all those expectations put on his back will be completely justified.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres paid a big price to bring Blake Snell in, but his career has shown some inconsistencies that make this move somewhat risky.  In 2018, Snell was out of this world, winning the Cy Young with 21 wins, a 1.89 ERA, and a ridiculous 217 ERA+.  In 2019, he struggled with some injuries and was barely above average.  In 2020, he bounced back with a strong season, but nowhere near his 2018 production.  The lasting image of 2020 was him being taken out of the final World Series game despite his complete dominance of the Dodger lineup.  The Rays wouldn't let him be a workhorse like he wanted to be, which is partially why it made sense to trade him away.  Now the Padres will probably let him be that workhorse, but can he handle it?  Even in his Cy Young year of 2018, he only pitched 180 innings.  He is coming off an injury season in 2019 and a shortened season in 2020.  Can his arm handle to workload and the pressure of what the Padres want from him?

Prospect to Watch

MacKenzie Gore

Like I said, the Padres have been using their farm system more to acquire established talent than to directly impact the big league roster.  With that said, the Padres still rank as the 6th best farm system in baseball, with 4 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The best of these players, and probably the only untouchable prospect in their system, is MacKenzie Gore.  This lefty was my Prospect to Watch last season, and if it were a full regular season, you can be sure we would have seen him.  Everyone assumed he would have a spot in the rotation for 2021, but then the Padres went and traded for a bunch of aces.  Now their 2020 Opening Day starter barely has a spot.  With all that said, barring an injury MacKenzie Gore will play a role on the 2021 Padres at some point.  With the jump back up to 162 games, look for him to be brought up at some point to add more depth to the rotation and never look back.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL West, lose in Wild Card Game

The San Diego Padres might have the 2nd best roster in all of baseball entering 2021.  They might be the most exciting team to watch this season with all their young talent and trades.  I will be rooting for them because they are a fun breath of fresh air.  The problem is if they have the 2nd best roster, the best roster is in their division.  That means that they will be stuck getting a Wild Card spot even though they could easily win over 100 games.  As of right now, we are back to the old playoff format, which means one Wild Card Game to make the divisional round.  I would take the Padres in almost any playoff series, but with how I have the playoffs predicted shaking out I don't like the matchup in a one game playoff.  So I see this season ending in great disappointment for the Padres, but that won't change how exciting they will be to watch.

Fearless Prediction

The San Diego Padres will win the NL West in 2022.

As long as the Padres stay the course and don't blow up their roster after a possible disappointing end to 2021, I could see 2022 be the season where they overtake the Dodgers as the top team in the division and the top team in the league.  Will that lead to World Series appearances?  That remains to be seen, but this team is heading in the right direction for sure.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

#15

The San Diego Padres won one of the biggest sweepstakes in recent baseball memory.  Will the addition of Manny Machado lead to more wins in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL West

The Padres will trade for a top-end staring pitcher mid-season.

2018 Results

66-96, 5th in NL West

The Padres had a lot of promise going into the 2018 season after signing one of the top available players in Eric Hosmer.  However, they still almost lost 100 games as Hosmer disappointed in his first year in San Diego.  They may not have traded for a starter during last season, even though their starting rotation was their biggest weakness, but that isn't from a lack of trying.

Additions / Subtraction

One of the biggest moves of the offseason for any team was the Padres picking up Manny Machado to man third base for the next 10 years.  Outside of the big prize though, the Padres were fairly quiet.  Veteran Ian Kinsler was brought in to play second base and starter Garrett Richards was added even though he won't pitch until 2020.  All of their eggs were in the Machado basket, and luckily it paid off.

Most Important Hitter

Eric Hosmer

The Padres have taken the philosophy of signing high-priced free agents to provide a veteran presence in a lineup of younger prospects.  Like I said earlier, Eric Hosmer was the prized signing a year ago, however he was a below average hitter and only garnered a 1.4 WAR after a 4 win season in 2017.  He needs to justify his signing by showing he and Machado are the cornerstones the Padres can build around.  If the Padres are to take the next step this season, he needs to be a major reason why.

Most Important Pitcher

Kirby Yates

There is not a single proven starter in the Padres rotation.  This means the bullpen will be relied on at many time throughout the season.  Kirby Yates hopped into the closer role last year after Brad Hand was traded, and he will most likely have the same job this season.  A needed confidence boost for young starting pitchers is to know that when they have a good outing, the bullpen will be able to hold the lead.  Yates is an important part of bringing about that confidence.

Prospect to Watch

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the reasons Manny Machado said he chose the Padres over other teams like the White Sox and Phillies was their top rated farm system.  Manny saw the amount of talent he would be playing with in the next few seasons and saw an opportunity to be a part of something special.  The Padres farm system truly is something special right now, with 10 (yes 10!) prospects in MLB's top 100 best prospects.  Many of these prospects have a chance to either make their debuts or play a key role in the 2019 season including pitchers Logan Allen, Michel Baez, and Chris Paddack, middle infielder Luis Urias, and catcher Francisco Mejia.  However, the prize of their system is shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.  Only rivaled by Vlad Jr. in baseball farm systems, the 20 year old Tatis Jr. has often been compared to Manny Machado in comparing him to what kind of player he could be.  Chances are we won't see him in 2019, but if the Padres have any sort of success this season, they may want to show off their shiny new toy and debut their future infield that will be in place for at least half a decade.  Mejia catching, Hosmer at first, Urias at second, Tatis at short, and Manny at third.  That is going to be hard to beat.

2019 Predictions

3rd in NL West

With the Diamondbacks taking a step back, and the Giants needing to rebuild, 2019 seems to be aligned for the Padres to finally take the step forward they have been wanting to take.  So many of their prospects are ready to make an impact, they have their veterans to anchor their roster.  Look for them to have a decent run at a Wild Card.  If they don't take advantage of this opportunity, look for the Padres to move on from manager Andy Green.

Fearless Prediction

The Padres will trade for a top-end starting pitcher mid-season.

Sound familiar?  They were hunting for one all last season, they were hunting for one this offseason.  They just haven't seemed to find the right fit, which is crazy considering just how much of a pitcher-friendly park they have in San Diego.  Like I said, they have a ton of prospects, but you need an established guy to lead and take off some pressure.  With all their prospects, they could easily package a few together to get the guy they are looking for and still have a glut of talent in the minors.  They will want someone with some club control, and some teams might be willing to part with one knowing what kind of talent they could get back.

2018 MLB Pre-Season Profiles: #20-16

Unfortunately, this year I was not able to complete my pre-season profiles of each team before the season started.  I will complete the list with an abbreviated preview to each team left starting with #20-16.

#20

San Diego Padres

Most Important Hitter: Wil Myers

Most Important Pitcher: Brad Hand

Prospect to Watch: Luis Urias

2018 Prediction: 5th in NL West

Bold Prediction: The Padres will trade for a top-end starting pitcher mid-season.

The Padres are moving in the right direction.  Their problem is they are in possibly the most competitive division in baseball full of teams ready to win now.  If they keep on their current course, they will be competing for this division in the next few years.  With Eric Hosmer coming over from Kansas City, Wil Myers is transitioning into a crowded outfield.  Their best last player last year needs to show he is can still be elite even if he isn't the face of the franchise.  Same with Brad Hand.  A great year in 2017 has the Padres looking to Hand to be their closer.  He needs to show 2017 wasn't a fluke.  Look for the Padres' front to once again be aggressive at the Trade Deadline.  If guys like Chris Archer or another ace with years of club control left becomes available, look for the Padres to bolster their rotation by dealing one of their many outfielders.

#19

Philadelphia Phillies

Most Important Hitter: Maikel Franco & Odubel Herrera

Most Important Pitcher: Jake Arrieta

Prospect to Watch: Scott Kingery & J.P. Crawford

2018 Prediction: 3rd in NL East

Bold Prediction: This will be Gabe Kapler's only season as Phillies' manager.

The Phillies are another team starting to set themselves up to be a contender in a few seasons.  For them to be able to do this, Franco and Herrera need to show that they can be consistent enough to be stars and the centerpieces of this offense.  Jake Arrieta was brought in late in the offseason to mentor a young pitching staff.  If he gets back to his glory days in Chicago, he might be the best signing of the offseason.  Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford will soon be mentioned as one of the best young double play combos in the league.  The only question is Gabe Kapler, managing for the first time and already getting a great deal of criticism.  He needs to improve quickly or else he may be in danger of being a one and done manager.

#18

Chicago White Sox

Most Important Hitter: Yoan Moncada

Most Important Pitcher: Lucas Giolito

Prospect to Watch: Michael Kopech

2018 Prediction: 3rd in AL Central

Bold Prediction: Michael Kopech will be in the top three for the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year.

No one remade their roster more efficiently and effectively than the White Sox did before the 2017 season.  Now all those prospects they got back are starting to hit the big leagues.  Guys like Moncada, Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez need to start showing why everyone was excited about their future.  Watch out for guys like Michael Kopech and Eloy Jimenez to crash the party in 2018.  Kopech is a future stud that will quickly be one of the top rookie in the big leagues as soon as he makes his debut.

#17

Atlanta Braves

Most Important Hitter: Dansby Swanson

Most Important Pitcher: Julio Teheran

Prospect to Watch: Ronald Acuna

2018 Prediction: 2nd in NL East

Bold Prediction: Ronald Acuna will be the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year.

The Braves are still a year or two away from really competing, but a weak division will make them look better than they are.  It is time for former #1 pick Dansby Swanson to become an All Star caliber shortstop.  Julio Teheran has been the Braves' ace for awhile, more by default than anything, but his production needs to take a step forward before he is passed by guys like Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb.  Ronald Acuna might be the most exciting young player to yet make his major league debut.  When he does, watch out!

#16

Texas Rangers

Most Important Hitter: Rougned Odor

Most Important Pitcher: Matt Moore

Prospect to Watch: Willie Calhoun

2018 Prediction: 4th in AL West

Bold Prediction: Cole Hamels will be traded before the end of the season.

The Rangers seem to be stuck in this spot where they aren't quite competing, but they aren't quite losing either.  This year appears to be another one of those years, especially considering their division.  Rougned Odor has shown flashes of brilliance, but needs to get consistent.  Matt Moore they are hoping finally shows the greatness that made him a top prospect a few years ago.  This might be the year the Rangers finally decide to start to sell a little.  This could start with Cole Hamels, who is in the last year of his contract.


Stay tuned for more!

2017 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

#29

The San Diego Padres have seen all sorts of extremes over the last couple years.  They were all in one year, then rebuilding the next.  What will 2017 hold?

My 2016 Predictions

5th in NL West

The Padres will trade over half of their starting rotation by the end of the season.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in NL West

A combination of hitting a complete reset button on their franchise and having one of the most competitive divisions in baseball resulted in a dismal 2016 for the Padres.  The silver lining to their season was the experience they gave to all their youth, including rookie manager Andy Green.  As for last year's fearless prediction, I nailed it!  Starting pitchers that were traded during the 2016 season numbered 3 or 4 (could've been 5), depending on who you want to count.  Drew Pomeranz ended the season with the Red Sox, Andrew Cashner ended the year with the Marlins, and James Shields was traded to the White Sox.  Colin Rea, last year's player to watch, was traded to the Marlins with Cashner but given back after he needed Tommy John surgery just one start in.  Tyson Ross, the best of the group, very easily could have been traded as well if he hadn't gotten hurt on Opening Day and sat out the rest of the year.

Additions / Subtractions

With all the trades made during the season, the Padres were fairly quiet during the offseason.  They let Tyson Ross walk and brought in veteran starters Jered Weaver and Jhoulys Chacin to fill out a very young rotation.  The biggest move of the offseason was the commitment to Wil Myers, making him the cornerstone of the new look Padres for years to come.

Most Important Hitter

Wil Myers

With the Padres in full rebuild mode, Wil Myers is one of the few players in the lineup with extensive big league experience.  He is also coming off a breakout All Star season in 2016.  He could easily emerge as a borderline superstar in 2017, which would allow all the youngsters in the lineup to relax and play without too much pressure.

Most Important Pitcher

Brandon Maurer

When the Padres traded Fernando Rodney last season, it opened up the competition at the back end of their bullpen for closer.  The most talented arm back there that should emerge is Brandon Maurer.  If he does, they potentially have a star in the making anchoring their bullpen.  He needs to be dominant if the bullpen is going to be serviceable this season.

Player to Watch

Manuel Margot & Hunter Renfroe

I couldn't just pick one.  These two outfield prospects are two of the most prized possessions of the Padres' farm system, and both are projected to make a huge impact this season.  Twenty-two year old Margot, one of the players acquired in the trade that sent Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox, is the Padres' top prospect and is competing for the starting centerfield job.  Twenty-five year old Renfroe is a former first round pick of the Padres and is projected to be the starting rightfielder on Opening Day.  These two should forever be linked as cornerstones of the Padres' new core.

2017 Prediction

5th in NL West

The Padres are not quite ready to crawl out of the cellar of the NL West.  This is more due to the strength of the division than anything.  However, the pitching staff, which was once their strength, is now something that has a lot of learning still to do.  They will be fun to watch moving forward, but they are a few years away from being good.

Fearless Prediction

Margot and Renfroe will finish in the top 3 of Rookie of the Year voting in 2017.

I really want to predict that one of them will win this award, but any rational prognosticator would be crazy to pick anyone but the Braves' Dansby Swanson as the pre-season Rookie of the Year.  With that said, I see these two having a great year that might even get people talking about the Padres (which is a feat in itself).