2023 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #6

The San Diego Padres continued to spend more than almost any other team this offseason.  Will they get over the hump and win a World Series in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#6 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Yu Darvish

PTW - C.J. Abrams

2022 Results

#4 - 89-73, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLCS

Highest WAR (Position) - Manny Machado

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Yu Darvish

The 2022 San Diego Padres could be summed up with three players: one was one of the best in the league, one never showed up, and one showed up mid-season.  First, Manny Machado may have had his best season ever, earning a runner up finish in the MVP race.  Second, Fernando Tatis Jr. got hurt before the season started in a motorcycle accident, and right before he was ready to return, got suspended for PED's, potentially tainting an entire career of one of baseball's brightest young stars.  Third, the Padres showed they are willing to continue to double down by trading for one of the best hitters in the game Juan Soto at the Trade Deadline.  They rode the talent on the field to the NLCS, but no one was beating the Phillies in their run to the NL pennant.

Additions / Subtractions

Just when you think the Padres may have reached their limit in payroll, they doubled down again.  They seemed to be in on every big name free agent, finally landing shortstop Xander Bogaerts on (another) huge deal.  They signed Manny Machado to an extension that was (another) huge deal.  They solidified the rotation with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.  Then, as if they didn't have enough already, they went to the veteran market and picked up Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.  There were a couple subtractions, like Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, Sean Manaea, and Mike Clevinger, but I think the additions outweigh the subtractions.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the most fascinating storylines in all of baseball entering the 2023 season is what will happen with Fernando Tatis Jr.  The last time we saw him, he was an MVP candidate, leading the league in home runs, and earning every bit of his newly signed 14 year megadeal.  However, even then his durability and overall health were being questioned as he was starting to see some time in the outfield to protect the wear and tear on his body.  Then he gets hurt making a dumb decision.  Then he compounds that by getting caught for PED's.  Then the Padres go out and sign another shortstop to an 11 year deal.  Now Tatis will have to wait another month before he finally is allowed back from his suspension, and he essentially has lost his job.  He finished 2021 as possibly the face of baseball.  Now he is being looked at as, at best, the 4th best player on his team.  What will he be this year?  How much did PED's possibly impact his past performance, or was it another dumb decision during his injury recovery?  Who is this player???  He's only 23 year old too!  Does he go back to his MVP-caliber 2021 form?  If he does, the Padres will be special.  Is he put off by losing his job, switching positions, and still sitting out?  If so, he could be a negative influence in that locker room that destroys one of the most talented teams in the league.  No one knows!  Watching what happens with Tatis will be one of the biggest storylines of the entire season.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres will roll out possibly the best lineup in all of baseball in 2023, however their pitching staff has a lot more questions in it.  One of the players that could be an X-factor for the whole pitching staff in Blake Snell.  In 2018, Snell was on another planet for the Rays.  He had a 217 ERA+ that year and won the Cy Young.  Since then, he hasn't even sniffed that level of production.  His best season since was the COVID-shortened 2020 season with a 127 ERA+.  Last season was next best at 111 ERA+, but he only threw 128 innings.  Now he is entering his third season with the Padres, which is also his contract year at age 30.  If he can return to some level of dominance, it not only will solve a lot of possible questions with the Padres pitching staff, but it will also earn him one last big payday heading into free agency next offseason.

Prospect to Watch

Jay Groome

With all the big spending and blockbuster trades the Padres have done the last few seasons, it has completely depleted their farm system.  Ranked in the bottom third of MLB farm systems, the Padres only tout 2 prospects in the Top 100, with neither ready to contribute this season.  In fact, only 2 prospects in their top 10 even have a chance to play in the big leagues this season.  The more intriguing of these prospects in their 9th best prospect, Jay Groome.  When drafted in 2016, this 6'6" 262lb left-handed pitcher was thought to be one of the top prospects in the draft.  Then injuries and missed time completely derailed his development to the point that the Padres acquired him as an afterthought last season from the Red Sox in the Eric Hosmer trade.  He stuff isn't elite, but he still has pretty good makeup.  Look for him to get a chance to earn a rotation spot if the injury bug hits the Padres this season.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

It might be a hot take to have the Padres this low, but there are just way too many elite National League teams.  With that said, the Padres are probably the most talented team in the league.  They also feel like they could completely implode on themselves.  They do have one of the best managers around in Bob Melvin, and they have basically a player/coach at this point in Nelson Cruz.  So hopefully that stabilizes some of the volatility.  There are still a lot of questions with their rotation.  When they win the division and go on to win the World Series, this will look like a really bad take, but it's what I'm going with right now.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Padres superstars will not be on their roster at the start of the 2024 season.

The spending has to stop at some point, right?  Right?!?  They have paid out huge money to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yu Darvish.  However, they have yet to lock up Juan Soto beyond this season.  He might need the biggest contract of all of them.  I could see the Padres let him walk in free agency ... or maybe they sign him and trade Tatis ... or maybe they trade Soto mid-season to get something for him ... or maybe they just double down one more time and sign Soto and just keep it all.  They have to run out of money at some point though ... I think.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #9

The San Diego Padres were one of the most exciting young teams in all of baseball in 2020, and they followed that up with the most exciting offseason of any team in the league.  Will all that excitement lead to a deep postseason run in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL West

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Garrett Richards

PTW - MacKenzie Gore

2020 Results

#3 - 37-23, 2nd in NL West, lost in NLDS

Everyone knew the Padres were on the verge of being a contender for several years now.  They had built up an elite farm system and were surrounding that young talent with some great veteran stars.  It was just a matter of when.  In a shortened season like 2020, I didn't see the jump happening, but it did.  Slam Diego became must-see TV, with mid-season trades for pitcher Mike Clevinger, catcher Aaron Nola, and closer Trevor Rosenthal showing they were ready to commit to this team's success.  But the couldn't win the division, despite the third best record in all of baseball, thanks to the Dodgers.  And they couldn't advance far in the postseason thanks to the Dodgers.  There's a theme here...

Additions / Subtractions

You would think a team coming off such a huge successful year like this with a farm system bursting with talent might let their talent naturally take the next step forward.  Not the Padres!  They saw that Dodger superteam in front of them and tooled up to try and take them down.  So instead they used their farm system to trade for Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove to make their rotation elite (and to make up for the injury to Mike Clevinger).  They signed reliever Mark Melancon to replace Trevor Rosenthal in the back of the bullpen.  The only real addition to the lineup was a move for depth, adding Korean standout infielder Ha-Seong Kim.  They also locked up their young superstar, Fernando Tatis Jr., through 2034!  I didn't know it was possible for the third best team in baseball to improve this much.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

He is the league's next superstar.  He is possibly the next face of the sport.  He just signed a 14 year megadeal.  He is the 22 year old leader of the most exciting team in baseball.  He's also never played more than 84 games in a season at the big league level.  For as amazing and potentially legendary Tatis Jr. is, there are still some serious question marks heading into 2021.  He finished 3rd for Rookie of the Year in 2019, playing only 84 games due to injury.  He finished 4th in MVP in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, playing in 59 of the team's 60 games.  How will his young body hold up under 162?  All indications are that this isn't a problem, but he's never done it.  If he is able to put in a full season, all those expectations put on his back will be completely justified.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres paid a big price to bring Blake Snell in, but his career has shown some inconsistencies that make this move somewhat risky.  In 2018, Snell was out of this world, winning the Cy Young with 21 wins, a 1.89 ERA, and a ridiculous 217 ERA+.  In 2019, he struggled with some injuries and was barely above average.  In 2020, he bounced back with a strong season, but nowhere near his 2018 production.  The lasting image of 2020 was him being taken out of the final World Series game despite his complete dominance of the Dodger lineup.  The Rays wouldn't let him be a workhorse like he wanted to be, which is partially why it made sense to trade him away.  Now the Padres will probably let him be that workhorse, but can he handle it?  Even in his Cy Young year of 2018, he only pitched 180 innings.  He is coming off an injury season in 2019 and a shortened season in 2020.  Can his arm handle to workload and the pressure of what the Padres want from him?

Prospect to Watch

MacKenzie Gore

Like I said, the Padres have been using their farm system more to acquire established talent than to directly impact the big league roster.  With that said, the Padres still rank as the 6th best farm system in baseball, with 4 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The best of these players, and probably the only untouchable prospect in their system, is MacKenzie Gore.  This lefty was my Prospect to Watch last season, and if it were a full regular season, you can be sure we would have seen him.  Everyone assumed he would have a spot in the rotation for 2021, but then the Padres went and traded for a bunch of aces.  Now their 2020 Opening Day starter barely has a spot.  With all that said, barring an injury MacKenzie Gore will play a role on the 2021 Padres at some point.  With the jump back up to 162 games, look for him to be brought up at some point to add more depth to the rotation and never look back.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL West, lose in Wild Card Game

The San Diego Padres might have the 2nd best roster in all of baseball entering 2021.  They might be the most exciting team to watch this season with all their young talent and trades.  I will be rooting for them because they are a fun breath of fresh air.  The problem is if they have the 2nd best roster, the best roster is in their division.  That means that they will be stuck getting a Wild Card spot even though they could easily win over 100 games.  As of right now, we are back to the old playoff format, which means one Wild Card Game to make the divisional round.  I would take the Padres in almost any playoff series, but with how I have the playoffs predicted shaking out I don't like the matchup in a one game playoff.  So I see this season ending in great disappointment for the Padres, but that won't change how exciting they will be to watch.

Fearless Prediction

The San Diego Padres will win the NL West in 2022.

As long as the Padres stay the course and don't blow up their roster after a possible disappointing end to 2021, I could see 2022 be the season where they overtake the Dodgers as the top team in the division and the top team in the league.  Will that lead to World Series appearances?  That remains to be seen, but this team is heading in the right direction for sure.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#17

The Tampa Bay Rays made many headlines in 2018.  They were the first to try the "Opener," and they rode its success to being one of the biggest surprises of the season.  Will they repeat that success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in AL East

Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.

2018 Results

90-72, 3rd in AL East

Of all my predictions last season, this one was furthest from what actually happened.  I saw all the moves before the 2018 season as a sign of a rebuild.  Instead, they turned it into the latest Rays roster that somehow succeeds so much more than it ever should.  The Opener was criticized, but it worked.  Then, even with the Opener, one of their regular starters, Blake Snell, ended up winning the Cy Young.  Their moves throughout the season were some strange combination of buying and selling.  Trading away closer Alex Colome and veteran outfielder Denard Span, then acquiring outfielder Tommy Pham.  The big move was the trade of Chris Archer, which was the one thing I got right.  The package brought back from the Pirates for Archer actually made them better, giving them a solid starter and outfielder (Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows) who were both ready for their opportunity to break out.  2018 just showed once again that the Rays are just smarter than everyone else.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays offseason was exactly what you would expect: under the radar yet bizarrely effective.  They traded young outfielder Mallex Smith to the Mariners for starting catcher Mike Zunino.  They traded first baseman Jake Bauers for Yandy Diaz, another first baseman.  The Rays also made a small splash in free agency, signing starting pitcher Charlie Morton and outfielder Avisail Garcia.  Like I said, the moves look minor, however all of them seem fitting and quite helpful in rounding out this roster.

Most Important Hitter

Tommy Pham

In 2017, Tommy Pham had a huge breakout season for the Cardinals.  Then in 2018, he was a huge disappointment in St. Louis.  At the Trade Deadline, the Rays made the surprising move of buying low on Pham, hoping he could get back to his 2017 form.  For the last few months of last season, that is exactly what he did.  In 39 games in Tampa last year, Pham hit .343 with 7 homers and 22 RBI's, resulting in a 194 OPS+ after just having a 99 OPS+ with St. Louis.  The Rays are now looking at Pham as an anchor and veteran presence in their emerging lineup.  The question is which Tommy Pham will show up in 2019?

Most Important Pitcher

Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton is entering his 12th season in the big leagues and is finally being viewed as elite.  Before 2017, Morton only posted two seasons above average (according to ERA+), topping out at 109 in 2013.  Then he ended up in Houston where his ERA+ was 113 in 2017 and 129 in 2018.  He was the one on the mound to close out the World Series in 2017, and then he made his first All Star team in 2018.  Entering his age 35 season, some saw the 2 year $30 million deal with the Rays as a surprise, not because Morton didn't deserve the pay day, but because of the Rays use of the Opener.  Morton is a tried and true starter that will put up at least 150 innings.  It also shows that the Rays use of the Opener may have been more out of necessity than anything.  They want starters, and they are hoping Morton can partner up with Blake Snell as a lethal 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.  The question is can Morton continue his success now that he has transferred to a different orange juice, moving from Minute Maid Park in Houston to Tropicana Field in Tampa.

Prospect to Watch

Brent Honeywell

I was really looking forward to profiling Brent Honeywell on last year's article for the Rays.  He is an exciting player with electric stuff that includes a screwball (who does that?!?).  In 2017, he was the starting pitcher for the US team in the Futures Game, winning the MVP award for the game.  The hype was real!  Then he went down with Tommy John at the very start of the 2018 Spring Training.  He isn't expected to start pitching competitively until May or June, but if all goes well he could show up on the roster for a possible September playoff push.  Either way, look at him to for sure be added to the small group of actual starting pitchers in 2020.

2019 Prediction

3rd in AL East

Look for the Rays to end up in a similar position as last season.  They may not reach the 90 win mark again, but they will be the lone team on the second tier of the AL East.  They don't have what it takes to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, but that doesn't mean they won't be competitive.  As last year, they will compete for a Wild Card spot, but look for them to once again come up short.

Fearless Prediction

Mike Zunino will hit over 30 home runs in 2019.

As a Mariners fan, I have spent the last six seasons waiting for Mike Zunino to finally put it all together and become the perennial All Star that his potential showed when he was selected 3rd overall in the 2012 Draft.  As soon as he was traded to the Rays, I knew that promise was going to get a lot closer to being fulfilled.  He grew up in Florida, went to the University of Florida, and now is back home.  Plus, he seems like the type of guy that a change of scenery will be good for, especially a change into a more hitter friendly park.  Look for his power to show up in a greater way than ever before.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#27

The Tampa Bay Rays were very active late in the offseason in a way which left many scratching their head.  Will they be able to compete in 2018 after some of the more recent developments?

2017 Predictions

4th in AL East

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

2017 Result

80-82, 3rd in AL East

Somehow, every year the Rays find a way to be relevant no matter what their roster looks like.  2017 seemed to be no exception as they almost finished .500 while spending minimum money.  This was mainly behind their incredibly strong pitching staff.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I was right but I just jumped the gun a little.

Additions / Subtractions

This is where the headlines were made this offseason for the Rays.  The Rays either traded or did not re-sign 5 of their top 6 players last year in WAR (Steven Souza, Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson, and Alex Cobb).  They also traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins.  The only additions to the current roster seem to be inconsequential, with players like C.J. Cron, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez taking the spots of former Rays mainstays.  This offseason reshaped the Rays unlike any offseason in the franchise's history.

Most Important Hitter

Kevin Kiermaier

The one player in the Rays' top 6 in WAR that is still on the roster is Kevin Kiermaier, who happened to be first on that list.  The Rays' centerfielder is still considered one of the best defenders in the game, and his bat last year started to catch up with his glove.  However, he was also the most outspoken on the roster about his disapproval with the roster moves.  He is going to produce as always, but will he be a cancer in the clubhouse?  His attitude more than his production could help determine what kind of season the Rays have.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

Even with losing Odorizzi and Cobb, the Rays' rotation has always been their strength, and this year was to be no different.  However, with the losses of phenom Jose De Leon and top prospect Brent Honeywell in Spring Training (both to Tommy John), this once stellar position is now looking a little thin.  The key to their success this year is Blake Snell.  The Rays' former top prospect, Snell is now entering his third year of big league service.  He has been a serviceable starter, but has yet to become the ace everyone was anticipating.  This rotation is topped by Chris Archer, but Snell taking a big step forward would give them one of the best righty/lefty combinations at the top of the rotation in the league.  It could also help make up for what might be a struggling offense.

Prospect to Watch

Willy Adames

I was really looking forward to talking about Brent Honeywell here because I think he is going to be a star, but that will have to wait another year or two now.  The Rays have a very strong farm system, and it is topped by Honeywell and Willy Adames.  Yes, the Rays have prospects that are not pitchers.  Adames has the potential to join the current group of superstar shortstops in the league over the next few years.  If 2018 falls apart, Adames might get his chance to show what he can do sooner rather than later.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL East

This has been such a strange offseason.  Even though we are well into Spring Training, moves are still being made that have major impacts on teams.  I originally said the Rays would finish 3rd in the AL East.  They always seem to find a way to compete no matter what their roster looks like.  Then they traded Steven Souza.  Then they traded Jake Odorizzi.  Then they traded Corey Dickerson.  Then De Leon and Honeywell were out for the season.  In a week or two of Spring Training, they went from being able to compete at .500 baseball again to probably being irrelevant this season.  I hope I am wrong.  Baseball is always more interesting when teams like the Rays and the A's continue to find ways to compete.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.

Kiermaier is obviously frustrated and wants out of Tampa.  He has been very vocal about that.  Although Archer hasn't been as vocal, there have been trade rumors surrounding him more than any other Ray all offseason.  There is no point in trading away all the talent they did unless you truly start over and trade your most valuable assets.  Kiermaier and Archer are young enough to anchor the new wave, but they will want to compete before then.  Look for them to be at the center of the rumor mill come Trade Deadline in July.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

Somehow, the Tampa Bay Rays defy the odds every year and have a solid season with whatever roster is put on the field.  Last season was no exception.  Will 2016 bring more of the same?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in AL East

2015 Result: 80-82, 4th in AL East

Every season, the Rays look like the last talented team in their division.  Every season, they over-achieve and play better than anyone expects with their talent level and payroll.  This is partially because of a strong pitching staff that seems to replenish itself every year with new young talent.  Although they finished fourth, this was only because of the immense competition in the AL East.  They easily could have ended up a slot or two higher.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

As with every Tampa Bay offseason, it was highlighted by low-level moves that could make a huge impact.  They picked up Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Danny Farquhar is a trade with Seattle, and then added Corey Dickerson in a trade with Colorado for Jake McGee.  The subtraction list is very short, mainly losing low-level players that the acquisitions replaced.

Most Important Hitter

Evan Longoria

It feels like Evan Longoria has been around forever, however he is only entering his age 30 season.  He has gone from being one of the best third basemen in the league to fairly mediocre in the last few years (6 WAR in 2013, 3 WAR in 2014 and 2015).  For the Rays to be back in playoff consideration, the one player they were willing to commit to long term has to start playing again like the MVP-caliber player he once was.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Moore

Matt Moore was one of the next generation of Tampa Bay pitchers to dominate the league.  After an All-Star appearance in 2013, his progress was put on hold by Tommy John surgery in 2014.  He came back to only make 12 starts in 2015.  He needs to be back to full strength in 2016 for the Rays to have any success.

Player to Watch

Blake Snell

Like I said, Tampa Bay is known for the constant carousel of young pitchers.  The next in that line to arrive this season will be Blake Snell.  This lefty is the 14th best prospect in all of baseball and should be ready to make an impact at some point in 2016.

2016 Prediction

3rd in AL East

The Rays always seem to over-achieve and compete in the very competitive AL East.  The young core of pitching will always keep them competitive.  Some upgrades to their offense should help keep this team right around .500 again in 2016 as they show they are not in the cellar, but also not elite.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

One part of the Rays' roster that is elite is Chris Archer.  He is quickly turning into possibly the best of all the pitchers to come through Tampa Bay (yes, that includes David Price).  He has all the skills to be one of the league's elite pitchers, and he has the personality to be considered a true superstar.  Look for Archer to come out and have a phenomenal start that leads to potentially the start in the All Star Game.