2023 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #15

The Chicago Cubs have completed a full reset of their roster from the core that won the World Series in 2016.  Is this new core ready to compete?

2022 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Nico Hoerner

MIP - Marcus Stroman

PTW - Brennen Davis

2022 Results

#19 - 74-88, 3rd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ian Happ

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Marcus Stroman

The Cubs quietly had a decent season in 2022.  They never really felt like they were in contention, but they remained competitive throughout the whole season.  One of the biggest revelations of the 2022 season for the Cubs was the solid rookie outing for Japanese import Seiya Suzuki.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason for the Cubs was all about officially ending one era and starting a new one.  They watched Willson Contreras join the Cardinals in free agency, marking the departure of one of the only remaining players from the World Series team.  To fill the leadership void, the Cubs signed shortstop Dansby Swanson to a huge deal.  Then they invested in some bounce back reclamation projects.  This came in the form of starter Jameson Taillon, first basemen Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, and most notably, centerfielder Cody Bellinger.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Cubs signed Swanson to be the cornerstone of their future, and he will be counted on to start earning his big contract immediately.  He earned the big payday too.  Last season was his best in the big leagues, hitting .277 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI's, and a 115 OPS+ while playing every game and earning his first Gold Glove.  The Cubs are paying him like that was just the start of his greatness.  If the Cubs are taking a step forward in 2023, he will have to prove that's true.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

What appears to be the final remaining player from the Cubs glory days, Kyle Hendricks has really fallen off the last few seasons.  In fact, 2021 and 2022 were his worst seasons in the big leagues.  In 2022, injuries kept him to only 16 starts and 84 innings.  He almost pitched more in the COVID shortened 2020 season than in 2022.  He doesn't need to bounce all the way back to the elite level that led the league in ERA in 2016, but the Cubs need him to bounce back in some way.  Their pitching staff feels very makeshift and random entering the year.  Hendricks returning to form would provide some much needed stability.

Prospect to Watch

Hayden Wesneski

With the Cubs pitching staff less set than their lineup, there will be opportunities for a player like Hayden Wesneski to have an impact in 2023.  Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season from the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross, Wesneski had a chance to get in 6 games last fall with some pretty good success.  The 25 year old starter is thought to have a very high floor with a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.  Wesneski enters 2023 as the Cubs #5 prospect in their farm system, which ranks middle of the pack in the league.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

I like where the Cubs are at!  I think they are definitely heading in the right direction.  Dansby Swanson was a perfect choice to be the new face of their franchise, their new core is starting to develop nicely, and their pitching has some upside.  I look for the Cubs to be a surprise team in 2023.  They probably won't contend for a playoff spot, but they might be in the conversation for a Wild Card down the stretch, especially since they are in one of the worst divisions in baseball.

Fearless Prediction

Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

Over the last season or two, one of the perpetual storylines around the Cubs has been if Ian Happ will be traded at any point.  Happ has been one of those bridge players who broke out on the scene in 2017 just after the World Series run and has been one of their best players the last few years.  Now he is in his last year of club control and will be looking for a big payday next offseason.  The Cubs also have a ton of outfield depth in their farm system, with some ready to contribute at some point this season.  Look for Ian Happ to be moved in July for a young, big league ready arm.  A move like this would be a perfect opportunity to sell while still competing down the stretch, even if it might not be a popular move with Cubs fans.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #9

The San Diego Padres were one of the most exciting young teams in all of baseball in 2020, and they followed that up with the most exciting offseason of any team in the league.  Will all that excitement lead to a deep postseason run in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL West

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Garrett Richards

PTW - MacKenzie Gore

2020 Results

#3 - 37-23, 2nd in NL West, lost in NLDS

Everyone knew the Padres were on the verge of being a contender for several years now.  They had built up an elite farm system and were surrounding that young talent with some great veteran stars.  It was just a matter of when.  In a shortened season like 2020, I didn't see the jump happening, but it did.  Slam Diego became must-see TV, with mid-season trades for pitcher Mike Clevinger, catcher Aaron Nola, and closer Trevor Rosenthal showing they were ready to commit to this team's success.  But the couldn't win the division, despite the third best record in all of baseball, thanks to the Dodgers.  And they couldn't advance far in the postseason thanks to the Dodgers.  There's a theme here...

Additions / Subtractions

You would think a team coming off such a huge successful year like this with a farm system bursting with talent might let their talent naturally take the next step forward.  Not the Padres!  They saw that Dodger superteam in front of them and tooled up to try and take them down.  So instead they used their farm system to trade for Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove to make their rotation elite (and to make up for the injury to Mike Clevinger).  They signed reliever Mark Melancon to replace Trevor Rosenthal in the back of the bullpen.  The only real addition to the lineup was a move for depth, adding Korean standout infielder Ha-Seong Kim.  They also locked up their young superstar, Fernando Tatis Jr., through 2034!  I didn't know it was possible for the third best team in baseball to improve this much.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

He is the league's next superstar.  He is possibly the next face of the sport.  He just signed a 14 year megadeal.  He is the 22 year old leader of the most exciting team in baseball.  He's also never played more than 84 games in a season at the big league level.  For as amazing and potentially legendary Tatis Jr. is, there are still some serious question marks heading into 2021.  He finished 3rd for Rookie of the Year in 2019, playing only 84 games due to injury.  He finished 4th in MVP in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, playing in 59 of the team's 60 games.  How will his young body hold up under 162?  All indications are that this isn't a problem, but he's never done it.  If he is able to put in a full season, all those expectations put on his back will be completely justified.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres paid a big price to bring Blake Snell in, but his career has shown some inconsistencies that make this move somewhat risky.  In 2018, Snell was out of this world, winning the Cy Young with 21 wins, a 1.89 ERA, and a ridiculous 217 ERA+.  In 2019, he struggled with some injuries and was barely above average.  In 2020, he bounced back with a strong season, but nowhere near his 2018 production.  The lasting image of 2020 was him being taken out of the final World Series game despite his complete dominance of the Dodger lineup.  The Rays wouldn't let him be a workhorse like he wanted to be, which is partially why it made sense to trade him away.  Now the Padres will probably let him be that workhorse, but can he handle it?  Even in his Cy Young year of 2018, he only pitched 180 innings.  He is coming off an injury season in 2019 and a shortened season in 2020.  Can his arm handle to workload and the pressure of what the Padres want from him?

Prospect to Watch

MacKenzie Gore

Like I said, the Padres have been using their farm system more to acquire established talent than to directly impact the big league roster.  With that said, the Padres still rank as the 6th best farm system in baseball, with 4 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The best of these players, and probably the only untouchable prospect in their system, is MacKenzie Gore.  This lefty was my Prospect to Watch last season, and if it were a full regular season, you can be sure we would have seen him.  Everyone assumed he would have a spot in the rotation for 2021, but then the Padres went and traded for a bunch of aces.  Now their 2020 Opening Day starter barely has a spot.  With all that said, barring an injury MacKenzie Gore will play a role on the 2021 Padres at some point.  With the jump back up to 162 games, look for him to be brought up at some point to add more depth to the rotation and never look back.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL West, lose in Wild Card Game

The San Diego Padres might have the 2nd best roster in all of baseball entering 2021.  They might be the most exciting team to watch this season with all their young talent and trades.  I will be rooting for them because they are a fun breath of fresh air.  The problem is if they have the 2nd best roster, the best roster is in their division.  That means that they will be stuck getting a Wild Card spot even though they could easily win over 100 games.  As of right now, we are back to the old playoff format, which means one Wild Card Game to make the divisional round.  I would take the Padres in almost any playoff series, but with how I have the playoffs predicted shaking out I don't like the matchup in a one game playoff.  So I see this season ending in great disappointment for the Padres, but that won't change how exciting they will be to watch.

Fearless Prediction

The San Diego Padres will win the NL West in 2022.

As long as the Padres stay the course and don't blow up their roster after a possible disappointing end to 2021, I could see 2022 be the season where they overtake the Dodgers as the top team in the division and the top team in the league.  Will that lead to World Series appearances?  That remains to be seen, but this team is heading in the right direction for sure.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

#15

The San Diego Padres won one of the biggest sweepstakes in recent baseball memory.  Will the addition of Manny Machado lead to more wins in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL West

The Padres will trade for a top-end staring pitcher mid-season.

2018 Results

66-96, 5th in NL West

The Padres had a lot of promise going into the 2018 season after signing one of the top available players in Eric Hosmer.  However, they still almost lost 100 games as Hosmer disappointed in his first year in San Diego.  They may not have traded for a starter during last season, even though their starting rotation was their biggest weakness, but that isn't from a lack of trying.

Additions / Subtraction

One of the biggest moves of the offseason for any team was the Padres picking up Manny Machado to man third base for the next 10 years.  Outside of the big prize though, the Padres were fairly quiet.  Veteran Ian Kinsler was brought in to play second base and starter Garrett Richards was added even though he won't pitch until 2020.  All of their eggs were in the Machado basket, and luckily it paid off.

Most Important Hitter

Eric Hosmer

The Padres have taken the philosophy of signing high-priced free agents to provide a veteran presence in a lineup of younger prospects.  Like I said earlier, Eric Hosmer was the prized signing a year ago, however he was a below average hitter and only garnered a 1.4 WAR after a 4 win season in 2017.  He needs to justify his signing by showing he and Machado are the cornerstones the Padres can build around.  If the Padres are to take the next step this season, he needs to be a major reason why.

Most Important Pitcher

Kirby Yates

There is not a single proven starter in the Padres rotation.  This means the bullpen will be relied on at many time throughout the season.  Kirby Yates hopped into the closer role last year after Brad Hand was traded, and he will most likely have the same job this season.  A needed confidence boost for young starting pitchers is to know that when they have a good outing, the bullpen will be able to hold the lead.  Yates is an important part of bringing about that confidence.

Prospect to Watch

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the reasons Manny Machado said he chose the Padres over other teams like the White Sox and Phillies was their top rated farm system.  Manny saw the amount of talent he would be playing with in the next few seasons and saw an opportunity to be a part of something special.  The Padres farm system truly is something special right now, with 10 (yes 10!) prospects in MLB's top 100 best prospects.  Many of these prospects have a chance to either make their debuts or play a key role in the 2019 season including pitchers Logan Allen, Michel Baez, and Chris Paddack, middle infielder Luis Urias, and catcher Francisco Mejia.  However, the prize of their system is shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.  Only rivaled by Vlad Jr. in baseball farm systems, the 20 year old Tatis Jr. has often been compared to Manny Machado in comparing him to what kind of player he could be.  Chances are we won't see him in 2019, but if the Padres have any sort of success this season, they may want to show off their shiny new toy and debut their future infield that will be in place for at least half a decade.  Mejia catching, Hosmer at first, Urias at second, Tatis at short, and Manny at third.  That is going to be hard to beat.

2019 Predictions

3rd in NL West

With the Diamondbacks taking a step back, and the Giants needing to rebuild, 2019 seems to be aligned for the Padres to finally take the step forward they have been wanting to take.  So many of their prospects are ready to make an impact, they have their veterans to anchor their roster.  Look for them to have a decent run at a Wild Card.  If they don't take advantage of this opportunity, look for the Padres to move on from manager Andy Green.

Fearless Prediction

The Padres will trade for a top-end starting pitcher mid-season.

Sound familiar?  They were hunting for one all last season, they were hunting for one this offseason.  They just haven't seemed to find the right fit, which is crazy considering just how much of a pitcher-friendly park they have in San Diego.  Like I said, they have a ton of prospects, but you need an established guy to lead and take off some pressure.  With all their prospects, they could easily package a few together to get the guy they are looking for and still have a glut of talent in the minors.  They will want someone with some club control, and some teams might be willing to part with one knowing what kind of talent they could get back.

2018 MLB Pre-Season Profiles: #20-16

Unfortunately, this year I was not able to complete my pre-season profiles of each team before the season started.  I will complete the list with an abbreviated preview to each team left starting with #20-16.

#20

San Diego Padres

Most Important Hitter: Wil Myers

Most Important Pitcher: Brad Hand

Prospect to Watch: Luis Urias

2018 Prediction: 5th in NL West

Bold Prediction: The Padres will trade for a top-end starting pitcher mid-season.

The Padres are moving in the right direction.  Their problem is they are in possibly the most competitive division in baseball full of teams ready to win now.  If they keep on their current course, they will be competing for this division in the next few years.  With Eric Hosmer coming over from Kansas City, Wil Myers is transitioning into a crowded outfield.  Their best last player last year needs to show he is can still be elite even if he isn't the face of the franchise.  Same with Brad Hand.  A great year in 2017 has the Padres looking to Hand to be their closer.  He needs to show 2017 wasn't a fluke.  Look for the Padres' front to once again be aggressive at the Trade Deadline.  If guys like Chris Archer or another ace with years of club control left becomes available, look for the Padres to bolster their rotation by dealing one of their many outfielders.

#19

Philadelphia Phillies

Most Important Hitter: Maikel Franco & Odubel Herrera

Most Important Pitcher: Jake Arrieta

Prospect to Watch: Scott Kingery & J.P. Crawford

2018 Prediction: 3rd in NL East

Bold Prediction: This will be Gabe Kapler's only season as Phillies' manager.

The Phillies are another team starting to set themselves up to be a contender in a few seasons.  For them to be able to do this, Franco and Herrera need to show that they can be consistent enough to be stars and the centerpieces of this offense.  Jake Arrieta was brought in late in the offseason to mentor a young pitching staff.  If he gets back to his glory days in Chicago, he might be the best signing of the offseason.  Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford will soon be mentioned as one of the best young double play combos in the league.  The only question is Gabe Kapler, managing for the first time and already getting a great deal of criticism.  He needs to improve quickly or else he may be in danger of being a one and done manager.

#18

Chicago White Sox

Most Important Hitter: Yoan Moncada

Most Important Pitcher: Lucas Giolito

Prospect to Watch: Michael Kopech

2018 Prediction: 3rd in AL Central

Bold Prediction: Michael Kopech will be in the top three for the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year.

No one remade their roster more efficiently and effectively than the White Sox did before the 2017 season.  Now all those prospects they got back are starting to hit the big leagues.  Guys like Moncada, Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez need to start showing why everyone was excited about their future.  Watch out for guys like Michael Kopech and Eloy Jimenez to crash the party in 2018.  Kopech is a future stud that will quickly be one of the top rookie in the big leagues as soon as he makes his debut.

#17

Atlanta Braves

Most Important Hitter: Dansby Swanson

Most Important Pitcher: Julio Teheran

Prospect to Watch: Ronald Acuna

2018 Prediction: 2nd in NL East

Bold Prediction: Ronald Acuna will be the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year.

The Braves are still a year or two away from really competing, but a weak division will make them look better than they are.  It is time for former #1 pick Dansby Swanson to become an All Star caliber shortstop.  Julio Teheran has been the Braves' ace for awhile, more by default than anything, but his production needs to take a step forward before he is passed by guys like Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb.  Ronald Acuna might be the most exciting young player to yet make his major league debut.  When he does, watch out!

#16

Texas Rangers

Most Important Hitter: Rougned Odor

Most Important Pitcher: Matt Moore

Prospect to Watch: Willie Calhoun

2018 Prediction: 4th in AL West

Bold Prediction: Cole Hamels will be traded before the end of the season.

The Rangers seem to be stuck in this spot where they aren't quite competing, but they aren't quite losing either.  This year appears to be another one of those years, especially considering their division.  Rougned Odor has shown flashes of brilliance, but needs to get consistent.  Matt Moore they are hoping finally shows the greatness that made him a top prospect a few years ago.  This might be the year the Rangers finally decide to start to sell a little.  This could start with Cole Hamels, who is in the last year of his contract.


Stay tuned for more!

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#26

The Kansas City Royals looked to hit the reset button on their franchise after a good run of strong success with a core of veteran, homegrown players.  Are they in full rebuild mode, or will they still find a way to compete in 2018?

2017 Predictions

2nd in AL Central

Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.

2017 Result
80-82, 3rd in AL Central

I had predicted about right for where the Royals would end up last year.  They probably exceeded their own expectations, which is why they weren't looking to sell like I thought they would at the Trade Deadline.  Instead, they chose to stay loyal to their core four players that, most likely, would not remain loyal to them once free agency commenced.

Additions / Subtractions

Yes, they lost some important pieces.  Eric Hosmer is now a Padre, Lorenzo Cain is now a Brewer, and Jason Vargas is now a Met.  However, they story of the Royals' offseason is how they ended up maintaining more than everyone thought.  Early on, they inked Alcides Escobar to remain their shortstop, and in the last day or two, Mike Moustakas re-signed after all other options were unavailable.  There were a couple smaller signings (John Jay, Lucas Duda), but the story really was how they were able to keep half of their stars that hit free agency.

Most Important Hitter

Whit Merrifield

Although all the focus last season was on the group of pending free agents, Whit Merrfield quietly had a very productive season.  Even though guys like Moustakas, Escobar, Salvador Perez, and Alex Gordon are still on the roster, Merrifield might represent the future of the Royals (or he might be their most valuable trading piece).  Either way, the Royals will be much better off this season if Merrifield is able to duplicate his production from 2017.

Most Important Pitcher

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera was the forgotten man in the Royals' legendary bullpen during their World Series runs.  Now he is the only one left.  Last year was his first opportunity as closer for Kansas City, and he had difficulty repeating his dominance as a setup man.  After posting an ERA+ of 280, 155, and 157 in 2014-2016, it dropped to 106 in 2017 which is just barely above the league average of 100.  The Royals pride themselves in their bullpen, and Herrera needs to show he can anchor it.

Prospect to Watch

Hunter Dozier

The Royals are in a bad position to try and rebuild as their farm system is not very strong.  They do not have a single prospect ranked in the league's top 100, with most of their best prospects at least 2 or 3 years away.  The one that should have an impact this season is Hunter Dozier.  A corner infielder / corner outfielder, Dozier has a shot of making the Opening Day roster.  He might even start Opening Day with the recent 80 game PED suspension of Jorge Bonifacio.

2018 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The days of Kansas City's relevance appear to be over.  They may have been able to keep two of their four free agent stars, but they kept the lesser two of the four and only for one more year.  Their starting rotation is weak, their bullpen has issues, and their lineup might still have some names but it lacks the production of their best years.  I like rooting for the Royals, and I hope we don't have to wait another 30 years before they are relevant again.

Fearless Prediction

Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.

I may be repeating my prediction from last year, but I think it is even more likely to happen this year.  He only re-signed with the Royals because no other option was available.  He wants to be on a competitor, and the Royals are not going to be that.  They signed him for one year obviously to leave open the opportunity to turn him into prospects mid-season if the season goes south.  He will be moved if the Royals know what they are doing.