2024 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #20

The Kansas City Royals had a sneaky good off-season.  Does it have them set up to contend in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Vinnie Pasquatino

MIP - Daniel Lynch

PTW - Drew Waters

FP - Bobby Witt Jr. will be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All Star Game in 2023.

2023 Results

#29 - 56-106, 5th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Bobby Witt Jr.

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Cole Ragans

The Royals struggled in 2023 despite having one of the most dynamic young players in the game.  Their young first base slugger was hurt most of the season, their young pitching stumbled...  It was almost all bad.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals off-season was defined by a bunch of smaller signings that make you say, "Oh, that's a sneaky good move."  They brought in starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to stabilize their rotation.  They brought in relievers Will Smith, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton to stabilize the bullpen.  They brought in veterans Adam Frazier and Hunter Renfroe to stabilize the lineup.  Not one of these moves moves the needle, but the combination of them all is impressive.

Most Important Hitter

Bobby Witt Jr.

I don't know if another team is tying its entire success over the next decade to one player quite like the Royals and Bobby Witt Jr.  Entering his third season, Witt has shown he is everything that his potential promised.  Somehow he didn't make the All Star Team last year, but he did finish 7th in MVP despite being on a 100+ loss team.  He could be in the conversation as one of the best players in baseball in the next year or two.  All the small moves the Royals made only work if Witt stays healthy and continues to play like a budding superstar.

Most Important Pitcher

Cole Ragans

Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season for Aroldis Chapman, Cole Ragans came to the Royals and quickly established himself as the ace of the young staff.  It was success he hadn't seen yet in the big leagues.  Now, with all the veterans on the pitching staff, the Royals are looking to Ragans to continue his dominance he showed at the end of last season and emerge as a true ace.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Loftin

The Royals currently have the 28th best farm system in baseball with only one prospect ranked in the Top 100, and that prospect won't be ready for at least another year.  Their second best prospect, though, started the season on the Opening Day roster.  Nick Loftin was drafted in 2020 as a top shortstop, and now he is entering 2024 as the go to utility man in Kansas City.  It takes a true athlete to thrive in a role like that, and the Royals believe he is that kind of athlete.  He could be yet another sneaky good addition to this roster.

2024 Prediction

2nd in AL Central

I know it would be quite a jump, but the Royals have two things going for them.  First, their roster may have seen more turnover than any other roster in the league, mainly with proven veterans.  Second, the AL Central is the weakest division in baseball ... by a lot.  The Royals are poised to make a leap like this in 2024.  They won't have much of a shot at the Wild Card, but they could make a push for the division crown.

Fearless Prediction

Salvador Perez will be traded before the start of next season.

The one constant in Kansas City over the highs and lows of the last decade has been Salvador Perez behind the plate.  He was on the team before their run in the mid-2010's, and he's the last one left after that run ended.  Now, he is in the last two seasons of his contract, and the Royals have a catcher as their top prospect.  It's not very likely, but there's a chance the Royals decide to finally move on from Sally, see what they can get for him, and move forward with their young prospect next year.  It's probably more likely that Perez is a lifelong Royal, but the possibility is there.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #25

The Kansas City Royals are getting close to being able to compete again after tearing down the roster following their World Series win in 2015.  Is 2023 the year they break out an be relevant again?

2022 Predictions

#21 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Zack Greinke

PTW - Bobby Witt Jr.

2022 Results

#26 - 65-97, 5th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Michael A. Taylor

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Brady Singer

The 2022 Royals was all about the youth movement.  It saw the debut of phenom Bobby Witt Jr., who played 150 and showed he truly is the budding superstar everyone thought he would be.  Brady Singer had a breakout season and showed he can be the ace everyone thought he would be.  Veterans Salvador Perez and Zack Greinke anchored the team and provided the necessary veteran leadership.  The problem is the rest of the roster wasn't up to par.  However, there were promising signs for the future for sure.

Additions / Subtractions

After selling off several veterans at the Trade Deadline last year like Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, and Andrew Benintendi, the Royals had a typical Royals offseason by not paying their own veterans hitting free agency and instead signing some interesting veterans with tons of upside.  So their best player (in terms of WAR) in Michael A. Taylor signed elsewhere, and Adalberto Mondesi was traded to Boston.  Coming in are starter Jordan Lyles and reliever Aroldis Chapman.  The one exception was ageless wonder Zack Greinke who is still going strong and should definitely finish his career in Kansas City.  The other major change for the Royals was the change at manager, with Matt Quatraro taking over for Mike Matheny.

Most Important Hitter

Vinnie Pasquatino

Although everyone entered the season fascinated by Bobby Witt Jr., the most popular player by the end of the season might have been fellow rookie Vinnie Pasquatino.  Nicknamed "The Italian Nightmare," Pasquatino showed his pure hitting skills could translate to the big leagues, batting .295 with 10 homers, 26 RBI's with a 135 OPS+ over 72 games.  This year, he will be counted on as a middle of the order bat despite not even having half a season of big league experience under his belt.  Witt Jr. will impact the game no matter what because of his athleticism.  If the Royals are going to take a step forward this year, it is going to be because of Vinnie Pasquatino.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Lynch

With Brady Singer emerging as the ace of the Royals, the focus goes to who will be providing the depth behind him.  Enter Daniel Lynch.  Entering his age 26 season (just like Singer), Lynch will be starting his 2nd full season in the big leagues.  Last season was not necessarily successful, as he posted a 4-13 record with a 5.13 ERA and an 80 ERA+ in 27 starts.  The Royals will be looking for him to take a step forward similar to what Singer did last year.  If he does, the Royals have a formidable right/left, 1/2 punch at the top of their rotation for the foreseeable future.

Prospect to Watch

Drew Waters

The Royals overall farm system took a hit last year with players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquatino graduating from the list.  Now they only boast one Top 100 prospect, and he is still probably a couple years away from the big leagues.  With that said, the Royals do have some fascinating prospects that could provide real impact at the big league level this season.  One of those in Drew Waters.  A former 2nd round pick of the Braves, the Royals traded for Waters mid-season for a draft pick.  Playing 32 games for the Royals in 2022, Waters barely maintained his prospect status but also showed some good production, with a 124 OPS+.  Now the Royals will go into Opening Day 2023 with Waters as their centerfielder, and he will be given every opportunity this season to show he is their centerfielder of the future.

2023 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The Royals are the start of a section on these power rankings of teams that are still rebuilding but are very close to breaking out in a big way.  The AL Central is not as strong as other divisions, their youth movement is really starting to show it's worth paying attention to, and it shouldn't shock anyone if the Royals end up close to .500 by the end of the season.

Fearless Prediction

Bobby Witt Jr. will be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All Star Game in 2023.

He has all the potential to be one of the game's next superstars.  He is dynamic young player that can do it all.  Last year he just scratched the surface.  If he takes the next step, look for him to be the talk of the league and win a fan vote for the best shortstop in the American League.  The Royals fans have shown in the past that they will come out in droves to vote for their stars when they have one to vote for.  It could make the Mid-Summer Classic a coming-out party for Bobby Witt Jr. in a similar way it was for Julio Rodriguez in 2022.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #24

The Kansas City Royals had one of the more aggressive offseasons, making several surprising splashes.  Will that work lead to success in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Brad Keller

PTW - Brady Singer

FP - Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

2020 Results

#24 - 26-34, 4th in AL Central

The Royals had some moderate success in 2020, but their talent level just couldn't carry them very far.  I had their season well predicted though.  Their two best players in terms of WAR were Salvador Perez and Brad Keller.  Third on that list was rookie Brady Singer.  Jorge Soler came out of the clouds of his home run title in 2019 and only hit 8 home runs in the shortened year.  It seemed like their season was fairly predictable.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals decided this offseason that waiting for the next Hosmer/Gordon/Perez/Moustakas/Cain core to come out of their farm system wasn't worth being mediocre anymore.  So they went out and spent a little money.  They brought in Carlos Santana to play first base.  They signed Mike Minor to round out the rotation.  they signed Michael A. Taylor to play centerfield.  Possibly the biggest move of the offseason they had was trading for Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox to replace the retiring Alex Gordon.  No one can claim the Royals are tanking after what they did this winter.

Most Important Hitter

Jorge Soler

Even with all the new pieces coming into the roster, the heart of the order will still revolve around their big slugger.  Jorge Soler broke out in 2019 with 48 homers.  Although he wasn't bad in 2020, it was not up to the level of that career year.  With bats like Santana and Benintendi giving him protection in the lineup, he has every opportunity to bounce back in 2021.  If he does, this could be a potent offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Staumont

The Royals appear to have a pretty solid rotation with Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, and phenom Brady Singer leading the way.  The hole appears to be the bullpen that doesn't have a clear arm to anchor the back half of the game.  Josh Staumont is a young arm that had some success in 2020.  They need him, or an arm similar to him, to emerge as an elite reliever to lead the way.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Witt Jr.

By far, the top prospect in the Royals' system is shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.  The second pick in the 2019 draft, Witt is currently ranked as the 7th best prospect in all of baseball.  Making his debut in 2021 might be a little bit of a stretch, but he has the skill and raw talent to make that kind of jump.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL Central

I feel like there are some definite tiers to MLB teams in 2021.  Numbers 30-25 are teams that really have no chance to make a significant impact in 2021.  The Royals start a run of teams that are probably not making the playoffs, but they have the talent to make things interesting.  I am probably underselling the Royals and what they can do in 2021 by putting them this low, but I just don't think they are quite at a point where they can climb much beyond here.  Because of the growth from some other teams in the division, that puts them in the cellar.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.

If the Royals are truly this far out of contention, they should be sellers at the deadline this season.  Their lineup is so young though, that I doubt they will trade away any hitters.  Their pitching staff, however, has a few veteran arms that I could see being moved.  Mike Minor and Danny Duffy are the prime candidates to be traded.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#25

The Kansas City Royals are starting fresh in 2020 with a new manager as they attempt to rebuild their roster back to the World Series caliber team they were just five short years ago.  Will this season see some progress toward their goal?

2019 Predictions

#29 - 5th in AL Central

MIH: Adalberto Mondesi

MIP: Danny Duffy

PTW: Nicky Lopez

FP: The Royals will not trade away any lineup pieces mid-season.

2019 Results

#27 - 59-103, 4th in AL Central

Somehow, the Royals were able to lose over 100 games and stay out of the cellar.  This speaks more to how bad the Tigers were than anything.  The Royals have entered full rebuild mode with only three players left over from their 2015 World Series win (Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy ... four if you want to count a random postseason appearance by a then 19 year old Adalberto Mondesi).  Although Mondesi is continuing to be a solid player in the big leagues, the youngster still hasn't taken the leap that his talent level promised when he was a prospect.  It seems as if the best of Danny Duffy is behind him, as he hasn't become the lockdown ace it looked like he could be in 2016 and 2017.  Nicky Lopez showed enough in 2019 to be entering the 2020 season as the team's starting second baseman, moving perennial All Star Whit Merrifield to centerfield, but he still has a lot to prove.  As far as my prediction, the Royals were indeed very quiet in terms of trades during the season.  Although Merrifield is constantly part of trade rumors, the Royals want to keep guys like that around instead of using him to help build the future.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals are entering 2020 with almost the exact same roster they had at the end of 2019.  The one addition they made was bringing in former Phillie Maikel Franco to man the hot corner.  They also re-signed leftfielder Alex Gordon for his age 36 season, more out of loyalty than anything.  The biggest change to the Royals this season is the retirement of their World Series manager Ned Yost who was replaced by former catcher and Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.  Matheny seems like the perfect guy to lead this team.

Most Important Hitter

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez is a 6 time All Star catcher with 5 Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers.  He was also the MVP of the 2015 World Series.  When the Royals needed to start a rebuild and move on from the core of their World Series roster, Perez was the one of the few they kept, locking him up through 2021.  With all that said, this is an important season for Sal.  He is coming off a lost 2019 season after Tommy John surgery was needed last spring.  So he is going to have to fight through the rust and fatigue of missing all that time while also mentoring the young pitching staff trying to find their way and return to his Gold Glove caliber play.  If is a tough challenge, but if anyone is up to it, it is Sal Perez.

Most Important Pitcher

Brad Keller

The best pitcher on the Royals last year was Brad Keller.  In his second season in the big leagues, Keller posted a 4.19 ERA, a 113 ERA+, and a 2.8 WAR.  Now he is entering 2020 (his age 24 season) as their ace and needs to take another leap forward to solidify the top of their rotation.  Look for Keller to be one of the quiet success stories of the 2020 season.

Prospect to Watch

Brady Singer

The Royals' farm system is still a work in progress.  They have three players in the top 100 prospects, topped by last year's #2 overall pick Bobby Witt Jr. at #10.  However, the majority of their prospects are still a few seasons away from making a big league impact.  The exception to that is pitcher Brady Singer.  A 2018 1st round pick out of Florida, Singer worked his way all the way up to AA in his first taste of pro ball.  His sinker/slider combo plays at any level and should start to establish himself at the top of the Royals' rotation at some point this season.

2020 Prediction

4th in AL Central

Much like last season, the only thing keeping the Royals from the cellar of the AL Central will be the struggles of the Detroit Tigers.  With that said, I see the Royals taking some baby steps forward.  Keeping their veteran core around, while unconventional in today's MLB, is allowing for the youngsters to come along slowly and learn from the best.  Like I said, I think the Matheny hire was a home run for the Royals.  With all this said, the best description for the Royals in 2020 is ... boring.  For the most part, they are going to be a boring team.  They are in a rare spot in baseball these days.  They are not stockpiled to win now, and their farm system is not stockpiled for a rebuild.  They also don't seem to be working at achieving one of those goals very quickly.  Instead, they are just ... boring.  They will win some games, they will lose more, but it doesn't seem like 2020 is really progressing towards much of anything.

Fearless Prediction

Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

The breakout star for the Royals in 2020 was by far Jorge Soler.  Formerly a top prospect of the Cubs, Soler had really struggled to find his place in the big leagues.  His career high in games played before 2019 was 101, and his career high in homers was 12.  Then came 2019, where he played in all 162 games and led the AL with 48 home runs.  Did he finally figure it out, or was it a fluke?  I am betting on it being a fluke.  Look for his home run total to be around half of what it was last year.  Either that, or he hits 50+.  It will be one or the other.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#29

Just three years after winning the World Series, the Kansas City Royals lost 100 games in 2018, showing just how hard it is to sustain success, especially in a small market.  As the Royals work toward a rebuild, will 2019 start to see improvement or more mediocrity?

2018 Predictions

4th in AL Central

Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.

2018 Results

58-104, 5th in AL Central

When Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer moved on before the 2018 season (and Moustakas was traded at the Deadline), the reign of the Royals officially ended.  Although some centerpieces of the World Series runs are still around (Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez), their production bottomed out with few quality young players to make up for it.  Even their best pitchers had bad 2018 seasons.  All this led to a 100 loss season, a feat that has not been that common over the last decade or so.

Additions / Subtractions

Being a small market team starting a rebuild, there is not much that can be done in free agency to improve.  Add to that some big contracts to Gordon and Perez, and the Royals don't have a lot of financial flexibility.  Veterans Lucas Duda and Alcides Escobar moved on after the 2018 season.  The only impact additions made to the roster were Brad Boxberger in the bullpen and Billy Hamilton in centerfield.  The Hamilton signing might be one of the more intriguing, under-the-radar signings of the offseason as he brings an electricity to the lineup that defined their World Series runs.

Most Important Hitter

Adalberto Mondesi

The son of former Dodger Raul Mondesi, Adalberto Mondesi represents the beginning of what may be the next wave of young talent in Kansas City.  Mondesi played parts of 2016 and 2017 with the big club before becoming a more regular player by the end of 2018.  Now with Alcides Escobar moving on, Mondesi will open the 2019 season as the everyday shortstop.  He was quite the highly-touted prospect coming up through the system, and it is time for him to start to show some of that promise.  Mondesi is entering his age 23 season, which would be a great time to make a big leap forward in his progress.  How quickly the Royals bounce back into prominence depends on how quickly a player like Mondesi becomes a star.

Most Important Pitcher

Danny Duffy

Danny Duffy emerged after the 2016 and 2017 seasons as the Royals' best pitcher.  However, 2018 was a huge step back for the lefty.  His ERA jumped up over a run while his ERA+ dropped below average for the first time since 2011, his rookie season.  Their rotation is built around Duffy being their ace, and last year he was everything but that.  If he bounces back to the potential star he showed he could be, then the Royals might be a little better than people think.

Prospect to Watch

Nicky Lopez

Something that doesn't bode well for the Royals' chances over the next few seasons is their farm system is not very strong.  Only one prospect is currently ranked in MLB's top 100, and only one of their top 10 prospects are even close to the big leagues.  The one prospect is middle infielder Nicky Lopez.  A 23 year old former fifth rounder out of Creighton, Lopez's strength is his glove, however his bat has been better than expected.  With Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi securing the middle infield spots for the foreseeable future, there might not be a spot for Lopez to get a chance.  However, if Mondesi struggles or Merrifield gets traded or either gets hurt, Lopez will likely get a shot.  At the least, he should make an appearance as a utility infielder at some point this season.

2019 Prediction

5th in AL Central

The Royals spent most of two decades barely being relevant before coming up and making two straight World Series out of nowhere.  It looks like they are securely back to irrelevance moving forward.  Their stars are aging and declining, outside of Merrifield the rest of the lineup is either still developing or underwhelming.  They have no help coming from the minors and no money to go get help.  They are in a tough spot for the years to come.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will not trade away any lineup pieces mid-season.

These days, teams are either loading up on an excess of major league talent or unloading the major league talent to bolster the farm system.  There are very few teams that find themselves in the middle, which is part of why there are so many free agents still unsigned.  No one is in the market for mid-level talent.  Either they go for the Harpers and Machados or they tank to load up on prospects to create a young core that will peak in a few years.  The Royals don't strike me as a team willing to trade their big names.  They traded Moustakas last season at the Deadline, but everyone knew when they signed him to a one year deal that was the purpose.  Other teams in the Royals' shoes would be doing anything to trade away guys like Alex Gordon or Salvador Perez.  The Royals seem to me to be a team that still believes in franchise faces and loyalty.  They will not be relevant for a few years, but they signed their 30 year old second baseman to a 4 year deal.  Alex Gordon is in the last year of his contract, but he is a local guy that has spent his whole career there.  Sal Perez is still an elite catcher that could bring a big return, but he is the face of their franchise and not going anywhere.  They are old school enough to sacrifice some future success to be loyal to their stars and their fans now.  Respectable, even if it isn't responsible.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#26

The Kansas City Royals looked to hit the reset button on their franchise after a good run of strong success with a core of veteran, homegrown players.  Are they in full rebuild mode, or will they still find a way to compete in 2018?

2017 Predictions

2nd in AL Central

Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.

2017 Result
80-82, 3rd in AL Central

I had predicted about right for where the Royals would end up last year.  They probably exceeded their own expectations, which is why they weren't looking to sell like I thought they would at the Trade Deadline.  Instead, they chose to stay loyal to their core four players that, most likely, would not remain loyal to them once free agency commenced.

Additions / Subtractions

Yes, they lost some important pieces.  Eric Hosmer is now a Padre, Lorenzo Cain is now a Brewer, and Jason Vargas is now a Met.  However, they story of the Royals' offseason is how they ended up maintaining more than everyone thought.  Early on, they inked Alcides Escobar to remain their shortstop, and in the last day or two, Mike Moustakas re-signed after all other options were unavailable.  There were a couple smaller signings (John Jay, Lucas Duda), but the story really was how they were able to keep half of their stars that hit free agency.

Most Important Hitter

Whit Merrifield

Although all the focus last season was on the group of pending free agents, Whit Merrfield quietly had a very productive season.  Even though guys like Moustakas, Escobar, Salvador Perez, and Alex Gordon are still on the roster, Merrifield might represent the future of the Royals (or he might be their most valuable trading piece).  Either way, the Royals will be much better off this season if Merrifield is able to duplicate his production from 2017.

Most Important Pitcher

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera was the forgotten man in the Royals' legendary bullpen during their World Series runs.  Now he is the only one left.  Last year was his first opportunity as closer for Kansas City, and he had difficulty repeating his dominance as a setup man.  After posting an ERA+ of 280, 155, and 157 in 2014-2016, it dropped to 106 in 2017 which is just barely above the league average of 100.  The Royals pride themselves in their bullpen, and Herrera needs to show he can anchor it.

Prospect to Watch

Hunter Dozier

The Royals are in a bad position to try and rebuild as their farm system is not very strong.  They do not have a single prospect ranked in the league's top 100, with most of their best prospects at least 2 or 3 years away.  The one that should have an impact this season is Hunter Dozier.  A corner infielder / corner outfielder, Dozier has a shot of making the Opening Day roster.  He might even start Opening Day with the recent 80 game PED suspension of Jorge Bonifacio.

2018 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The days of Kansas City's relevance appear to be over.  They may have been able to keep two of their four free agent stars, but they kept the lesser two of the four and only for one more year.  Their starting rotation is weak, their bullpen has issues, and their lineup might still have some names but it lacks the production of their best years.  I like rooting for the Royals, and I hope we don't have to wait another 30 years before they are relevant again.

Fearless Prediction

Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.

I may be repeating my prediction from last year, but I think it is even more likely to happen this year.  He only re-signed with the Royals because no other option was available.  He wants to be on a competitor, and the Royals are not going to be that.  They signed him for one year obviously to leave open the opportunity to turn him into prospects mid-season if the season goes south.  He will be moved if the Royals know what they are doing.