2023 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago White Sox

 #8

The Chicago White Sox underwhelmed in 2022 and missed the playoffs.  Will a new manager change the fate of the franchise before their championship window closes?

2022 Predictions

#3 - 1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

MIH - Luis Robert

MIP - Michael Kopech

PTW - Yoelqui Cespedes

2022 Results

#16 - 81-81, 2nd in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Jose Abreu

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Dylan Cease

Almost everything about 2022 for the Chicago White Sox was a disappointment.  Many of their established stars either fought injuries or struggles throughout the year.  However, the biggest disappointment seemed to come from their Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa.  Some questionable decisions and erratic behavior had everyone questioning if he was still able to do the job.  He ended up stepping away from the team for the last month for health concerns.  No matter how the season went, watching Tony LaRussa became the distraction that dominated most of the story around this team in 2022.  I said most of the story.  The one positive to come out of 2022 was the emergence of Dylan Cease.  If it wasn't for an other-worldly season from the ageless Justin Verlander, Cease would have won the Cy Young with his insane 180 ERA+.

Additions / Subtractions

The White Sox have a pretty established core.  This offseason was all about complementing it.  That job started with the hiring of new manager Pedro Grifol.  Then, starter Mike Clevinger was brought in to round out the rotation after the departure of Johnny Cueto.  Andrew Benintendi was signed to fill in the leftfield hole left by A.J. Pollock.  Former MVP Jose Abreu left in free agency and was replaced internally.  Possibly the most unexpected change in the roster was closer Liam Hendriks being diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin lymphoma.  No timetable on recovery or return has been given yet, but it sounds like the best case scenario is a return in June.

Most Important Hitter

Luis Robert Jr.

So much of what the White Sox do offensively revolves around Luis Robert Jr.  The team clicks and wins when he is on the field.  That's the problem though.  In 2021, he was held to 68 games.  In 2022, he played in 98 games.  Robert is starting to feel a little like Byron Buxton in that he is one of the most dynamic players in the game as long as he can stay on the field.  Especially with losing the consistency provided by Jose Abreu, the White Sox need Robert to be on the field as much as possible.  With him only entering his age 25 season, the hope is the health will come.

Most Important Pitcher

Lucas Giolito

If you were to ask anyone after the 2021 season who was the best starting pitcher for the White Sox, the answer would probably be Lucas Giolito.  He had gone from being one of baseball's top prospects to complete bust to All Star.  Well, 2022 saw another mood swing in the colorful career of Giolito.  He was the White Sox worst starter in 2022 with a 4.90 ERA and an 81 ERA+.  With the emergence of Dylan Cease, the consistency of Lance Lynn, and the dynamic talent of Michael Kopech, the starting rotation has the potential to be elite.  With that said, to be elite, Giolito has to be better.  He made some mechanics changes over the offseason.  Hopefully it produces results.

Prospect to Watch

Oscar Colas

The White Sox had a huge wave of talent that hit the big leagues a few years ago.  This left a depleted farm system that hasn't recovered yet.  Currently, the White Sox have 2 prospects in the Top 100 with the most intriguing for 2023 being outfielder Oscar Colas.  This 24 year old Cuban import was signed by the White Sox in January 2022, and in one season in the organization, he moved from High-A to Triple-A while hitting .314 and 23 home runs.  Watch for Colas to get a chance to play rightfield or even centerfield if Luis Robert Jr. struggles with injuries again.

2023 Prediction

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

This might be an odd pick, especially after the success of the Guardians last season and the dumpster fire the White Sox were at times last season.  However, through all the chaos in 2022, the White Sox were a .500 team.  If they can get some stability and some health, it is very realistic for the White Sox to return to the postseason.  It might be a stretch to say they could compete for a championship in 2023, but there is a version of this season that could end that way.  At the same time, I have been really high on this team for three years in a row now.  I had them in the World Series in 2021 and the ALCS in 2022.  If the White Sox fail me again, I'm out.

Fearless Prediction

Andrew Vaughn has a better season in 2023 than Jose Abreu.

Andrew Vaughn was the 3rd overall pick in the 2019 Draft, and the White Sox have been waiting for him to become a star.  Last season, Vaughn took a big enough step forward that they felt good enough to let Jose Abreu leave in free agency and hand over first base to the kid.  Andrew Vaughn has this potential in him, and the White Sox are hoping he breaks out.  Between Vaughn's potential and Abreu's age, I see this hot take having a good chance to hit.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #24

The Kansas City Royals had one of the more aggressive offseasons, making several surprising splashes.  Will that work lead to success in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Brad Keller

PTW - Brady Singer

FP - Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

2020 Results

#24 - 26-34, 4th in AL Central

The Royals had some moderate success in 2020, but their talent level just couldn't carry them very far.  I had their season well predicted though.  Their two best players in terms of WAR were Salvador Perez and Brad Keller.  Third on that list was rookie Brady Singer.  Jorge Soler came out of the clouds of his home run title in 2019 and only hit 8 home runs in the shortened year.  It seemed like their season was fairly predictable.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals decided this offseason that waiting for the next Hosmer/Gordon/Perez/Moustakas/Cain core to come out of their farm system wasn't worth being mediocre anymore.  So they went out and spent a little money.  They brought in Carlos Santana to play first base.  They signed Mike Minor to round out the rotation.  they signed Michael A. Taylor to play centerfield.  Possibly the biggest move of the offseason they had was trading for Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox to replace the retiring Alex Gordon.  No one can claim the Royals are tanking after what they did this winter.

Most Important Hitter

Jorge Soler

Even with all the new pieces coming into the roster, the heart of the order will still revolve around their big slugger.  Jorge Soler broke out in 2019 with 48 homers.  Although he wasn't bad in 2020, it was not up to the level of that career year.  With bats like Santana and Benintendi giving him protection in the lineup, he has every opportunity to bounce back in 2021.  If he does, this could be a potent offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Staumont

The Royals appear to have a pretty solid rotation with Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, and phenom Brady Singer leading the way.  The hole appears to be the bullpen that doesn't have a clear arm to anchor the back half of the game.  Josh Staumont is a young arm that had some success in 2020.  They need him, or an arm similar to him, to emerge as an elite reliever to lead the way.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Witt Jr.

By far, the top prospect in the Royals' system is shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.  The second pick in the 2019 draft, Witt is currently ranked as the 7th best prospect in all of baseball.  Making his debut in 2021 might be a little bit of a stretch, but he has the skill and raw talent to make that kind of jump.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL Central

I feel like there are some definite tiers to MLB teams in 2021.  Numbers 30-25 are teams that really have no chance to make a significant impact in 2021.  The Royals start a run of teams that are probably not making the playoffs, but they have the talent to make things interesting.  I am probably underselling the Royals and what they can do in 2021 by putting them this low, but I just don't think they are quite at a point where they can climb much beyond here.  Because of the growth from some other teams in the division, that puts them in the cellar.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.

If the Royals are truly this far out of contention, they should be sellers at the deadline this season.  Their lineup is so young though, that I doubt they will trade away any hitters.  Their pitching staff, however, has a few veteran arms that I could see being moved.  Mike Minor and Danny Duffy are the prime candidates to be traded.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

#5

The Boston Red Sox went all the way in 2018, winning the World Series.  No one has repeated as champions in almost 20 years.  Will the Red Sox end that streak?

2018 Predictions

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

J.D. Martinez will be the only Red Sox hitter over 20 home runs.

2018 Results

108-54, 1st in AL East, won World Series

The Red Sox ended up having a historic season, winning more games than any Red Sox team ever on their way to a World Series title.  Mookie Betts won the MVP, with J.D. Martinez being a top candidate as well.  I took a stab that the Red Sox would continue to struggle getting the ball out of the park, but Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all topped 20 home runs as well.  Everything went right for the Sox in 2018.

Additions / Subtractions

The Red Sox are bringing back almost the exact same roster as last season with one glaring subtraction.  They made sure to bring back World Series hero Nathan Eovaldi and signed Chris Sale to a big extension to keep their roster in tact.  The big subtraction is closer Craig Kimbrel, who may have struggled some in the postseason but is still one of the most dominant closers in all of baseball.  He will be replaced internally.

Most Important Hitter

Andrew Benintendi

The Red Sox do not really have a hole in their lineup.  With that said, if there is one weakness it is the they are somewhat lacking on the left side.  Andrew Benintendi can fix that.  After a huge debut in 34 games in 2016, he shot up to one of the top prospects in baseball.  2017 was not as impressive as 2016, but 2018 was definitely a step in the right direction.  He is only entering his age 24 season, and a breakout season into the superstar he can be can really balance out the Red Sox lineup and make them even more dangerous.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Barnes & Ryan Brasier

I am going with two pitchers in this spot because these two former setup men are being tasked with the extremely difficult job of replacing Craig Kimbrel's production in the 9th inning.  The Red Sox have a super deep bullpen, but for them to absorb Kimbrel's absence, either Barnes or Brasier (or both) have to step up big and be an All Star caliber closer.

Prospect to Watch

Michael Chavis

Michael Chavis is the best prospect in Boston's farm system.  This 23 year old third baseman might have some trouble breaking into the big club with the amount of talent in Boston's infield.  There are two ways he can affect the Red Sox this season.  Either he comes up and mans second base with Dustin Pedroia continuing to struggle to get healthy or they trade him for a top end closer.

2019 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The Red Sox are the second best team in the American League.  The problem is the best team in the league might be in their own division.  This leaves them in the Wild Card Game.  If they win this, they will get the best record in the divisional round (which will be from their division).  It is extremely hard to repeat a championship in baseball.  They will come up short this season, even though they might win 100 games again.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Dustin Pedroia's last season.

Dustin Pedroia is a Red Sox legend, but he has been plagued by injuries throughout his career.  The last two seasons have been shortened for him, including only a 3 game season in 2018.  He says to be healthy for 2019, but he is entering his age 35 season.  I don't know if he has anything left in the tank.  I don't think Pedroia will hold on very long if he can't produce anymore.  If he can't be healthy again, it could be a career for the former MVP.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

#1

The Boston Red Sox saw the retirement of one of their all-time greats in David Ortiz in 2016.  Will 2017 be a let down year, or will it see the emergence of the next generation of all-time Red Sox greats?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in AL East

David Price will spend time on the DL in 2016.

2016 Results

93-69, 1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

The Red Sox had a great season in 2016.  After a disappointing finish in the cellar in 2015, the team bounced back, led by a farewell campaign from David Ortiz that Hollywood couldn't have written.  Led by their 40 year old slugger, and some young new stars, the Red Sox won the division.  Once in the playoffs, they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Cleveland Indians.  As for my Fearless Prediction, it appeared to just be premature.  I said the workload of David Price was going to catch up with him.  After leading the league in innings pitched in 2016, Price is starting the 2017 season on the DL which might result in Tommy John surgery.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest subtraction is obviously the loss of David Ortiz.  Despite what many people hoped, he did indeed retire.  He has been replaced in the lineup by Mitch Moreland, a defense-first first baseman that allows Hanley Ramirez to inherit the DH spot.  Otherwise, the lineup didn't change much.  As far as their pitching goes, the Red Sox once again won the lottery.  After signing the biggest fish last season in David Price, they traded for the biggest fish on the market this year in Chris Sale.  They gave up a good portion of their farm system to get him, but get him they did.

Most Important Hitter

Pablo Sandoval

The success of Pablo Sandoval's season might be more important to Pablo Sandoval than the Red Sox.  After signing a big free agent contract with the Red Sox a few years ago, Pablo Sandoval has been an epic disappointment.  His 2016 season was defined by being overweight, breaking his belt on a swing, and a season-ending injury that dd the Red Sox a favor because now they had an excuse not to play him.  After several attempts to fill the third base hole last season did not work as well as they had hoped, the Red Sox are giving The Artist Formerly Known as Kung Fu Panda one more chance to show why they paid him so much money.  If this season goes well, Sandoval will be a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.  If this season goes poorly, not only will the Red Sox move on, but Sandoval's career will most likely be over.

Most Important Pitcher

Rick Porcello

Entering the 2016 season, everyone was talking about how the Red Sox signed David Price.  However, it was Rick Porcello that got the headlines by the end of the season, winning the AL Cy Young.  Now the Red Sox have added Chris Sale to the top of the rotation, giving them three established aces.  At least that is the hope.  More times than not, when a top-notch pitcher changes teams the first season is a bit of a letdown.  At the same time, David Price is on the shelf with no guarantee that he pitches at all this season.  Rick Porcello is going to be counted on as the stabilizing force in that rotation to hold it together no matter what happens with Sale and Price.  For someone who just had his first elite season, that might be too lofty a task for Porcello.

Player to Watch

Andrew Benintendi

This is an easy one.  The only reason he still qualifies as a rookie was an injury last season that kept his game total down below the limit.  However, Benintendi burst on the scene in 2016, showing he was ready to break out and be a star.  This season, he is the Opening Day rightfielder for the Red Sox.  He will not only be a fun rookie to watch, but he is being counted on to join their young core of Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley.  Add Benintendi to that ... talk about the new "Killer B's!"

2017 Prediction

1st in AL East, win the World Series

This team is loaded.  Their lineup is possibly the best in the league, led by Mookie Betts, who has the potential to join Mike Trout as the two best players in the league.  Their pitching is elite and deep, even if David Price ends up not pitching this season.  This new core of stars had a taste of the postseason last year, and now they are ready to take it all the way.  If they are able to stay together, this might be the making of a dynasty.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Sale will win the AL Cy Young.  Mookie Betts will win the AL MVP.

Sale's career has been building to this.  He has been on this slow rise to dominance, but has yet to break through as the best pitcher in the league.  I think the biggest reason for this is the fact that he has yet to play on a team good enough to support him.  The White Sox have yet to contend since Sale's career has taken off.  Now he is on one of the most talented rosters in the league.  Combine that with Sale's dominance in the prime of his career, and this could be a special season for Chris Sale.  For Mookie Betts, his career has been building as well.  Last season, he took second in the MVP voting to Mike Trout, however he is close to eclipsing and possibly passing Trout.  Winning Cy Young, MVP, and the World Series is rare, but not a far-fetched prediction considering the circumstance.