2024 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

 #19

The Boston Red Sox are stuck in a division with four juggernauts.  Will they be able to enter the conversation of the AL East contenders at all in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#23 - 5th in AL East

MIH - Masataka Yoshida

MIP - Chris Sale

PTW - Triston Casas

FP - This is Chris Sale's last season for the Red Sox.

2023 Results

#20 - 78-84, 5th in AL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Rafael Devers

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Chris Martin

There wasn't really any other result for the Red Sox in 2023.  The other four team in the division are peaking while the Sox are somewhere in between.  Their superstar third baseman keeps doing what he should, but there second best player in terms of WAR was a reliever (that wasn't their closer).  With that said, you could call their season a success simply for getting so close to .500.  It shows that the AL East in 2023 might have been the toughest division in baseball history.

Additions / Subtractions

My prediction came true when the Red Sox traded Chris Sale to the Braves.  They also sent Alex Verdugo, the prize of the Mookie Betts trade, to the hated Yankees.  Justin Turner is gone, Christian Arroyo is gone, Adam Duvall is gone, James Paxton is gone.  Most of these were replaced internally with youngsters.  The main off-season acquisitions were outfielder Tyler O'Neill and starter Lucas Giolito who never got to throw a pitch before blowing out his elbow in Spring Training.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

Trevor Story seemed to be one of those superstars looking for a payday that no one wanted to give him in the 2022 off-season.  Eventually the Red Sox gave him a 6 year deal.  Now, entering the third year of that deal, Story has only played 137 mediocre games in Boston.  The Red Sox need Story to stay healthy and productive if they are to have any chance of being relevant this season.

Most Important Pitcher

Brayan Bello

Chris Sale is gone.  Lucas Giolito is injured.  All of a sudden, 24 year old Brayan Bello is the only one left to anchor this rotation.  They have a lot of faith in the youngster, giving him an extension this off-season following a solid 2023.  With that said, he needs to take some huge strides forward if he is to be a relied upon ace.

Prospect to Watch

Ceddanne Rafaela

There are several options for this spot for the 14th best farm system in baseball, sporting 4 players in the Top 100.  Although Marcelo Mayer might end up being the best rookie in 2024, I'm going with the one that made the Opening Day roster.  Ceddanne Rafaela has been given center field to start the season, and it's easy to see why.  He is an elite defender.  Even though the bat is still developing, his defense will keep him in the lineup and help the team this season.

2024 Prediction

5th in AL East

This division is so tough once again.  The other four teams in the division could easily all make the playoffs.  The Red Sox are kinda stuck.  They are too good to tank and rebuild, but not good enough to contend in this division.  They might be winning the AL Central, but they will once again sit around .500 and ride the cellar all season.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Alex Cora's last season as Red Sox manager.

Manager of the Red Sox right now has to be an impossible job.  You're expected to be one of the elite teams, but you don't have the resources to compete.  You're expected to be a big budget superteam, yet you traded away one of the best players in baseball a few seasons ago.  Fans expect to make the postseason, but your best season might still find the team in the cellar.  Alex Cora could be fired for PR purposes, showing the fans they don't accept mediocrity.  I could also see him stepping away after the season simply for getting away from the pressure of an impossible situation.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

 #26

The Boston Red Sox had a tumultuous year in 2020, losing their best player, their ace, and their manager.  Will 2021 bring a quick rebound, or are they stuck in an impending rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#21 - 4th in AL East

MIH - Xander Bogaerts

MIP - Nathan Eovaldi

PTW - Tanner Houck

2020 Results

#27 - 5th in AL East

Everyone knew the Red Sox were going to take a step back in 2020, but I don't know if anyone thought it would be a step back that far.  They dropped all the way to the cellar without Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, and Alex Cora leading the way.  They did have some sparks, as Alex Verdugo proved to be a potential budding star they got back in the Betts deal.  My prospect to watch also flashed in the few opportunities he got on the mound in 2020.

Additions / Subtractions

The Red Sox had a fascinating offseason in that they were not in the full "go for it" mode you tend to see out of them.  They made some interesting additions in signing Kike Hernandez to replace the (finally) retiring Dustin Pedroia at second base.  They signed Hunter Renfroe to man a corner outfield spot.  They traded for Adam Ottavino from the Yankees.  They brought in upside guys like Garrett Richards and Nick Pivetta for their rotation.  These are nice little moves, but not the type of move you expect to see come out of Boston.  One of the more fascinating moves of the offseason for the Red Sox was the trade of Andrew Benintendi to the Royals.  The biggest transaction overall has to be the re-hiring of Alex Cora after his one year suspension/hiatus.

Most Important Hitter

Rafael Devers

With as much success as he had as early as he had it, it's easy to forget how young Rafael Devers is.  Entering only his age 24 season, Devers still hasn't hit his peak.  He is one of the main pieces of what should be the new core of the next wave of Red Sox.  His bat has always been really good, but his defense was pretty bad last year.  For the Red Sox to bounce back, Devers needs to round out his overall game and finally become the perennial All Star that everyone thought he would become.

Most Important Pitcher

Eduardo Rodriguez

One of the biggest things that doomed the 2020 campaign for the Red Sox was the depleted rotation.  Not only did you have an injured and recovering Chris Sale, but you also had an entire lost year from Eduardo Rodriguez, who struggled through a bad case of COVID and never was healthy enough to play.  One of the most consistent and steady pitchers in the league over the last couple years, Rodriguez is going to try and make a comeback and show that he is back to full strength.  With Chris Sale probably not ready to start the season, his presence in the rotation will be key.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Dalbec

Ranked the 93rd best prospect in baseball on mlb.com, Bobby Dalbec had a really strong look in the big leagues last season.  Dalbec and his huge power will get every opportunity to prove that he is a middle-of-the-order bat for the Red Sox moving forward.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL East

I'm not really sure why I am still so low on the Red Sox this season.  They have a lot of great pieces in place, they have their manager back, and they're the freaking Red Sox and are never down for that long.  With all that said, it feels like the step back they took last year is not quite ready for a bounce back yet.  They could easily end up in 4th instead, but the team they are fighting with at the bottom of the division seems to have a lot more momentum on their side.

Fearless Prediction

J.D. Martinez will be traded before the 2022 season.

Entering the 2021 season, J.D. Martinez is the only regular in the Red Sox lineup that is over 30.  There is an obvious youth movement hitting Boston, and if the team sees the disappointments they had last season, look for them to unload another aging old contract from their roster to improve the prospects of their next big run coming up soon.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

#5

The Boston Red Sox went all the way in 2018, winning the World Series.  No one has repeated as champions in almost 20 years.  Will the Red Sox end that streak?

2018 Predictions

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

J.D. Martinez will be the only Red Sox hitter over 20 home runs.

2018 Results

108-54, 1st in AL East, won World Series

The Red Sox ended up having a historic season, winning more games than any Red Sox team ever on their way to a World Series title.  Mookie Betts won the MVP, with J.D. Martinez being a top candidate as well.  I took a stab that the Red Sox would continue to struggle getting the ball out of the park, but Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all topped 20 home runs as well.  Everything went right for the Sox in 2018.

Additions / Subtractions

The Red Sox are bringing back almost the exact same roster as last season with one glaring subtraction.  They made sure to bring back World Series hero Nathan Eovaldi and signed Chris Sale to a big extension to keep their roster in tact.  The big subtraction is closer Craig Kimbrel, who may have struggled some in the postseason but is still one of the most dominant closers in all of baseball.  He will be replaced internally.

Most Important Hitter

Andrew Benintendi

The Red Sox do not really have a hole in their lineup.  With that said, if there is one weakness it is the they are somewhat lacking on the left side.  Andrew Benintendi can fix that.  After a huge debut in 34 games in 2016, he shot up to one of the top prospects in baseball.  2017 was not as impressive as 2016, but 2018 was definitely a step in the right direction.  He is only entering his age 24 season, and a breakout season into the superstar he can be can really balance out the Red Sox lineup and make them even more dangerous.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Barnes & Ryan Brasier

I am going with two pitchers in this spot because these two former setup men are being tasked with the extremely difficult job of replacing Craig Kimbrel's production in the 9th inning.  The Red Sox have a super deep bullpen, but for them to absorb Kimbrel's absence, either Barnes or Brasier (or both) have to step up big and be an All Star caliber closer.

Prospect to Watch

Michael Chavis

Michael Chavis is the best prospect in Boston's farm system.  This 23 year old third baseman might have some trouble breaking into the big club with the amount of talent in Boston's infield.  There are two ways he can affect the Red Sox this season.  Either he comes up and mans second base with Dustin Pedroia continuing to struggle to get healthy or they trade him for a top end closer.

2019 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The Red Sox are the second best team in the American League.  The problem is the best team in the league might be in their own division.  This leaves them in the Wild Card Game.  If they win this, they will get the best record in the divisional round (which will be from their division).  It is extremely hard to repeat a championship in baseball.  They will come up short this season, even though they might win 100 games again.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Dustin Pedroia's last season.

Dustin Pedroia is a Red Sox legend, but he has been plagued by injuries throughout his career.  The last two seasons have been shortened for him, including only a 3 game season in 2018.  He says to be healthy for 2019, but he is entering his age 35 season.  I don't know if he has anything left in the tank.  I don't think Pedroia will hold on very long if he can't produce anymore.  If he can't be healthy again, it could be a career for the former MVP.