2023 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

 #1

The Los Angeles Dodgers made news this offseason for not making much news.  Can they contend for a title in 2023 with their current roster?

2022 Predictions

#2 - 1st in NL West, lose in World Series

MIH - Cody Bellinger

MIP - Julio Urias

PTW - Michael Busch

2022 Results

#5 - 111-51, 1st in NL West, lost in NLDS

Highest WAR (Position) - Mookie Betts

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Julio Urias

The Dodgers are consistently one of the best regular season teams year after year, winning over 100 games for the 4th time in 5 seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season).  However, outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the regular season success hasn't produced any postseason results.  Adding insult to injury, they were eliminated from the playoffs by divisional rival San Diego in 2022.  Is it possible Dave Roberts is on the hot seat even with all that success?

Additions / Subtractions

The Dodgers had a very strange offseason for them in that they didn't make a splash.  While every other big market team was adding huge contracts and superstars to their payroll, the Dodgers instead watched Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Joey Gallo, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, and Craig Kimbrel walk away while Gavin Lux and Walker Buehler will miss the season with injuries.  With that kind of star power leaving, most of them were replaced internally or with short term deals.  New Dodgers include starter Noah Syndergaard, infielder Miguel Rojas, outfielder Jason Heyward, and DH J.D. Martinez.  Many speculate that the Dodgers didn't spend this offseason so they can offer a half a billion dollars to Shohei Ohtani next winter.

Most Important Hitter

Max Muncy

The Dodgers still have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the heart of their lineup, but a lineup is more than two players (just ask the Angels).  Max Muncy is one of those players that the Dodgers are really counting on to provide that depth.  The Dodgers unlocked something in Muncy when he joined the team in 2018 as he hit over 35 home runs in 2018, 2019, and 2021 while making the All Star team twice.  However, in 2022 Muncy took a step back, only hitting 21 home runs with an OPS+ of 97.  With Justin Turner's departure, Muncy is now the everyday third baseman, especially with second base not really an option anymore with the new shift ban.  If he returns to his 2021 form, that will go a long way in keeping the Dodger lineup moving.

Most Important Pitcher

Dustin May

Julio Urias emerged as an ace last season, and Clayton Kershaw is still around, however the biggest X-factor in the Dodger rotation is Dustin May.  At one point, May was one of the most promising prospects in all of baseball, but injuries have made it difficult for him to reach his potential.  He will have every opportunity in 2023 to show what he can do.  His stuff is still filthy so as long as he can stay healthy, May may be a prime breakout candidate this season.

Prospect to Watch

Miguel Vargas

The miracle of this run the Dodgers are on is they have been able to make the blockbuster trades and sign the big free agents while maintaining one of the best farm systems in all of baseball.  Ranked either 1st or 2nd (to the Orioles), the Dodgers currently have 7 prospects in the Top 100.  This organizational depth is going to be leaned on this season to help replace some of the departing star power, with several rookies getting Opening Day starts.  One of those is Miguel Vargas.  Ranked 37th in the Top 100, the 23 year old Cuban can play anywhere on the field, but will be looked to as the everyday second baseman this season.  Vargas is a pretty elite hitter so as long as he hits, the Dodgers will find a role for him.

2023 Prediction

1st in NL West, win World Series

There you have it!  My World Series pick!  I love what the Dodgers did (or didn't do) to get ready for this year.  There's something to the consistency and trusting the talent you have, especially finally allowing the young talent to truly get a chance to thrive at the big league level.  The sneakiest move of the whole offseason might be the trade for Miguel Rojas, especially after Gavin Lux's injury.  I don't see the Dodgers winning 111 games again this season.  In fact, I have them picked to have the worst record among the division champs and having to play through the Wild Card Round.  However, it just makes too much sense that the year no one is paying attention to them is the year they go all the way.  Also, can you imagine a Yankees/Dodgers World Series?  It's a marketing dream!

Fearless Prediction

Clayton Kershaw retires after this season.

Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers of this generation.  He is a 9 time All Star, a former MVP, won the pitching Triple Crown and 3 Cy Youngs.  He is also in his age 35 season and has been making a habit of signing 1 year contracts recently.  There have been rumblings that he has started questioning when it's time to call it a career each offseason.  I would imagine a full season World Series championship will be the perfect opportunity for Kershaw to ride off into the Cooperstown sunset.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

 #3

The Los Angeles Dodgers finally broke through and took the top prize in 2020 for the first time since 1988.  Is this the start of a new dynasty in LA?

2020 Predictions

#1 - 1st in NL West, win World Series

MIH - Corey Seager

MIP - Julio Urias

PTW - Dustin May

2020 Result

#1 - 43-17, 1st in NL West, won World Series

I will once again brag that I correctly predicted the World Series matchup and result!  The Dodgers have been one of the most talented teams in the league for awhile now, but finally they took the top prize.  They seem to only ever get better and stronger and deeper.

Additions / Subtractions

Even after winning the World Series, the Dodgers couldn't be content.  They had to get better, especially after seeing the crazy moves made by the division rival Padres.  Enter 2020 Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer.  If any team didn't need another starting pitcher, it was the Dodgers.  Now they have the most elite rotations in memory with Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, David Price, and Tony Gonsolin all in a position to get starts throughout the season.  In terms of the lineup, they re-signed third baseman Justin Turner while they let second baseman Kike Hernandez sign elsewhere, clearing room for former top prospect Gavin Lux to start every day.

Most Important Hitter

Will Smith

The Dodgers lineup is loaded with at least three potential MVP candidates in Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, and Corey Seager.  However, the key to their lineup might be catcher Will Smith, not necessarily for what he brings offensively but what he brings behind the plate.  Smith is entering his third full season in the big leagues, and he has always been able to hit.  His work defensively will be much more crucial as he looks to be the everyday catcher in 2021, especially considering the dream team pitching staff that is throwing to him.

Most Important Pitcher

Kenley Jansen

The starting rotation is deep and elite.  The bullpen is just as deep, but there are definite questions as to how elite they are at the back end.  Kenley Jansen has been the closer in LA for almost a decade.  His peak was in 2017 where he had 41 saves, a 1.32 ERA, and earned both Cy Young and MVP votes.  The last three seasons have been borderline average for Jansen, so much so that there has been talk of hi keeping his closer job.  Now the 33 year old is looking for a bounce back season to keep his job and keep the rest the back end of that bullpen elite.

Prospect to Watch

Keibert Ruiz

Along with bringing in some top talents through trades and free agency, the Dodgers have been incredibly good at building from within in recent years.  Whether it is Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Will Smith, Walker Buehler, or Julio Urias, the Dodgers constantly develop talent into stars and rarely trade away their top prospects.  Not many of the top prospects are projected to help the big club this season (and with the veteran depth they have, that's no surprise).  The one most likely to have an impact in the majors is top catching prospect Keibert Ruiz.  Ruiz is one that the Dodgers have been protecting the last few seasons in the big trades they have pulled off.  Now he will either be the trade chip they need to make another big splash or provide some depth behind the plate behind Will Smith and Austin Barnes.

2021 Prediction

1st in NL West, lose in NLCS

Are the Dodgers the most talented roster in the league?  Yes.  Are they the defending champions?  Yes.  Are they the favorites to repeat?  Yes.  With all that said, only twice in the 21st century have the defending champs even made the World Series the next year (2001 Yankees, 2009 Phillies).  No one has repeated as champs since the 1998-2000 Yankees won three in a row.  The last seven seasons have even had seven different champions.  The Dodgers have the talent to have that kind of run, but it is extremely hard to do.  There is enough parody in baseball right now that I think the Dodgers fall short of the Fall Classic in 2021.  At the same time, this year might be the easiest year to repeat with their depth and the short season in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

This is the last year Clayton Kershaw wears Dodger blue.

Clayton Kershaw is going to go down as one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  He is entering a contract year as a 33 year old, and looking at a roster filled with megadeals and superstars looking for megadeals.  At some point the Dodgers have to run out of money, right?  They just paid Mookie Betts last year, they paid Trevor Bauer this year, they need to decide who will be their shortstop of the future and give him a big payday (whether it is Corey Seager or one of the other superstar free agent shortstops), young stars like Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler will need to be paid soon, and they still have some other big contracts on the books like A.J. Pollock and David Price.  You have to think Kershaw will either need to take a huge hometown discount or move on to a team that needs a star, like Kershaw's hometown Rangers.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

#5

The Boston Red Sox went all the way in 2018, winning the World Series.  No one has repeated as champions in almost 20 years.  Will the Red Sox end that streak?

2018 Predictions

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

J.D. Martinez will be the only Red Sox hitter over 20 home runs.

2018 Results

108-54, 1st in AL East, won World Series

The Red Sox ended up having a historic season, winning more games than any Red Sox team ever on their way to a World Series title.  Mookie Betts won the MVP, with J.D. Martinez being a top candidate as well.  I took a stab that the Red Sox would continue to struggle getting the ball out of the park, but Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all topped 20 home runs as well.  Everything went right for the Sox in 2018.

Additions / Subtractions

The Red Sox are bringing back almost the exact same roster as last season with one glaring subtraction.  They made sure to bring back World Series hero Nathan Eovaldi and signed Chris Sale to a big extension to keep their roster in tact.  The big subtraction is closer Craig Kimbrel, who may have struggled some in the postseason but is still one of the most dominant closers in all of baseball.  He will be replaced internally.

Most Important Hitter

Andrew Benintendi

The Red Sox do not really have a hole in their lineup.  With that said, if there is one weakness it is the they are somewhat lacking on the left side.  Andrew Benintendi can fix that.  After a huge debut in 34 games in 2016, he shot up to one of the top prospects in baseball.  2017 was not as impressive as 2016, but 2018 was definitely a step in the right direction.  He is only entering his age 24 season, and a breakout season into the superstar he can be can really balance out the Red Sox lineup and make them even more dangerous.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Barnes & Ryan Brasier

I am going with two pitchers in this spot because these two former setup men are being tasked with the extremely difficult job of replacing Craig Kimbrel's production in the 9th inning.  The Red Sox have a super deep bullpen, but for them to absorb Kimbrel's absence, either Barnes or Brasier (or both) have to step up big and be an All Star caliber closer.

Prospect to Watch

Michael Chavis

Michael Chavis is the best prospect in Boston's farm system.  This 23 year old third baseman might have some trouble breaking into the big club with the amount of talent in Boston's infield.  There are two ways he can affect the Red Sox this season.  Either he comes up and mans second base with Dustin Pedroia continuing to struggle to get healthy or they trade him for a top end closer.

2019 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The Red Sox are the second best team in the American League.  The problem is the best team in the league might be in their own division.  This leaves them in the Wild Card Game.  If they win this, they will get the best record in the divisional round (which will be from their division).  It is extremely hard to repeat a championship in baseball.  They will come up short this season, even though they might win 100 games again.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Dustin Pedroia's last season.

Dustin Pedroia is a Red Sox legend, but he has been plagued by injuries throughout his career.  The last two seasons have been shortened for him, including only a 3 game season in 2018.  He says to be healthy for 2019, but he is entering his age 35 season.  I don't know if he has anything left in the tank.  I don't think Pedroia will hold on very long if he can't produce anymore.  If he can't be healthy again, it could be a career for the former MVP.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

#1

The Boston Red Sox saw the retirement of one of their all-time greats in David Ortiz in 2016.  Will 2017 be a let down year, or will it see the emergence of the next generation of all-time Red Sox greats?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in AL East

David Price will spend time on the DL in 2016.

2016 Results

93-69, 1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

The Red Sox had a great season in 2016.  After a disappointing finish in the cellar in 2015, the team bounced back, led by a farewell campaign from David Ortiz that Hollywood couldn't have written.  Led by their 40 year old slugger, and some young new stars, the Red Sox won the division.  Once in the playoffs, they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Cleveland Indians.  As for my Fearless Prediction, it appeared to just be premature.  I said the workload of David Price was going to catch up with him.  After leading the league in innings pitched in 2016, Price is starting the 2017 season on the DL which might result in Tommy John surgery.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest subtraction is obviously the loss of David Ortiz.  Despite what many people hoped, he did indeed retire.  He has been replaced in the lineup by Mitch Moreland, a defense-first first baseman that allows Hanley Ramirez to inherit the DH spot.  Otherwise, the lineup didn't change much.  As far as their pitching goes, the Red Sox once again won the lottery.  After signing the biggest fish last season in David Price, they traded for the biggest fish on the market this year in Chris Sale.  They gave up a good portion of their farm system to get him, but get him they did.

Most Important Hitter

Pablo Sandoval

The success of Pablo Sandoval's season might be more important to Pablo Sandoval than the Red Sox.  After signing a big free agent contract with the Red Sox a few years ago, Pablo Sandoval has been an epic disappointment.  His 2016 season was defined by being overweight, breaking his belt on a swing, and a season-ending injury that dd the Red Sox a favor because now they had an excuse not to play him.  After several attempts to fill the third base hole last season did not work as well as they had hoped, the Red Sox are giving The Artist Formerly Known as Kung Fu Panda one more chance to show why they paid him so much money.  If this season goes well, Sandoval will be a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.  If this season goes poorly, not only will the Red Sox move on, but Sandoval's career will most likely be over.

Most Important Pitcher

Rick Porcello

Entering the 2016 season, everyone was talking about how the Red Sox signed David Price.  However, it was Rick Porcello that got the headlines by the end of the season, winning the AL Cy Young.  Now the Red Sox have added Chris Sale to the top of the rotation, giving them three established aces.  At least that is the hope.  More times than not, when a top-notch pitcher changes teams the first season is a bit of a letdown.  At the same time, David Price is on the shelf with no guarantee that he pitches at all this season.  Rick Porcello is going to be counted on as the stabilizing force in that rotation to hold it together no matter what happens with Sale and Price.  For someone who just had his first elite season, that might be too lofty a task for Porcello.

Player to Watch

Andrew Benintendi

This is an easy one.  The only reason he still qualifies as a rookie was an injury last season that kept his game total down below the limit.  However, Benintendi burst on the scene in 2016, showing he was ready to break out and be a star.  This season, he is the Opening Day rightfielder for the Red Sox.  He will not only be a fun rookie to watch, but he is being counted on to join their young core of Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley.  Add Benintendi to that ... talk about the new "Killer B's!"

2017 Prediction

1st in AL East, win the World Series

This team is loaded.  Their lineup is possibly the best in the league, led by Mookie Betts, who has the potential to join Mike Trout as the two best players in the league.  Their pitching is elite and deep, even if David Price ends up not pitching this season.  This new core of stars had a taste of the postseason last year, and now they are ready to take it all the way.  If they are able to stay together, this might be the making of a dynasty.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Sale will win the AL Cy Young.  Mookie Betts will win the AL MVP.

Sale's career has been building to this.  He has been on this slow rise to dominance, but has yet to break through as the best pitcher in the league.  I think the biggest reason for this is the fact that he has yet to play on a team good enough to support him.  The White Sox have yet to contend since Sale's career has taken off.  Now he is on one of the most talented rosters in the league.  Combine that with Sale's dominance in the prime of his career, and this could be a special season for Chris Sale.  For Mookie Betts, his career has been building as well.  Last season, he took second in the MVP voting to Mike Trout, however he is close to eclipsing and possibly passing Trout.  Winning Cy Young, MVP, and the World Series is rare, but not a far-fetched prediction considering the circumstance.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox won the 2015 offseason last year, but it did not lead to success in the 2015 season.  A lot of people are saying the Red Sox won the 2016 offseason.  Will it lead to more success than it did in 2015?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

2015 Result: 78-84, 5th in AL East

The Red Sox really struggled their way through the 2015 season, mainly due to disappointing seasons from their two big money acquisitions over the offseason.  Pablo Sandoval was average at best, and the Hanley Ramirez outfield experiment was a colossal failure.  Add to that a medical leave for their manager for cancer treatment, and 2015 was a year the Red Sox were happy to get past them and forget.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The 2015 offseason for the Red Sox was a home run.  Is there something better than a home run?  If so, that's what the 2016 offseason has been.  Ramirez and Sandoval had question marks coming in with their big deals.  The guys they brought in this year do not.  David Price has been one of the most consistently dominant aces of this decade, and Craig Kimbrel has been the best closer of the decade.  Price solidifies the ace-less rotation, and Kimbrel moves the aging Koji Uehara to the 8th inning and, along with the underrated acquisition of Carson Smith, adds some quality depth to the bullpen.

Most Important Hitter

Jackie Bradley, Jr.

This could also be last year's two busts (including Hanley, who will be learning how to play 1st base this year), however Boston started to make a shift to a new young core last season, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. is one of the cornerstones of that new group.  They have been waiting for Bradley to be ready for several seasons now, and 2015 finally saw him produce in a way that lived up to some of the hype.  Now they are counting on him to be their everyday centerfielder with youngsters Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo flanking him.  Jackie Bradley, Jr. needs to have a productive 2016 if the Red Sox are going to have a productive offense this season.

Most Important Pitcher

Rick Porcello

At the top of the rotation, you know what David Price will bring, and Clay Buchholz is a solid number two.  However, added to the lists of 2015 disappointments was Rick Porcello, who was acquired from the Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes before the 2015 season.  Porcello has all the skills to be an All Star pitcher, but he struggled to stay in the rotation for a cellar-dweller last season.  He needs to show the skill that made a Cespedes-for-Porcello trade a smart move for the Red Sox.

Player to Watch

Brian Johnson

One of the Red Sox top prospects is this lefty.  He was able to get his big league debut in 2015 before a freak injury prevented him from getting more experience.  The Red Sox seem set in their rotation, but injuries always happen.  Even without injuries, the Red Sox will want to get this 25 year-old in the big league mix sooner rather than later.  An honorable mention for this spot is Deven Marrero, a middle infielder bound to see some time when the inevitable injuries to either Dustin Pedroia or Pablo Sandoval come.

2016 Prediction

2nd in AL East

The Red Sox look much better off this year than they did last year.  Thanks to guys like Price and Kimbrel, they have a chance to compete for the division.  I have them finishing second and coming up short on a Wild Card spot, but that could very well end up getting one of those spots.  Either way, it shouldn't be another cellar finish for the Sox.

Fearless Prediction

David Price will spend time on the DL in 2016.

David Price has thrown over 200 innings every season since 2010 with one exception.  That is a huge workload for one of the most durable pitchers of this generation.  That much wear and tear on a pitcher is bound to lead to an injury somewhere along the way.  It might not be a major injury, but it will be enough to see him miss some time.  He will be 100% for the stretch run though.