2023 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

 #1

The Los Angeles Dodgers made news this offseason for not making much news.  Can they contend for a title in 2023 with their current roster?

2022 Predictions

#2 - 1st in NL West, lose in World Series

MIH - Cody Bellinger

MIP - Julio Urias

PTW - Michael Busch

2022 Results

#5 - 111-51, 1st in NL West, lost in NLDS

Highest WAR (Position) - Mookie Betts

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Julio Urias

The Dodgers are consistently one of the best regular season teams year after year, winning over 100 games for the 4th time in 5 seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season).  However, outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the regular season success hasn't produced any postseason results.  Adding insult to injury, they were eliminated from the playoffs by divisional rival San Diego in 2022.  Is it possible Dave Roberts is on the hot seat even with all that success?

Additions / Subtractions

The Dodgers had a very strange offseason for them in that they didn't make a splash.  While every other big market team was adding huge contracts and superstars to their payroll, the Dodgers instead watched Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Joey Gallo, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, and Craig Kimbrel walk away while Gavin Lux and Walker Buehler will miss the season with injuries.  With that kind of star power leaving, most of them were replaced internally or with short term deals.  New Dodgers include starter Noah Syndergaard, infielder Miguel Rojas, outfielder Jason Heyward, and DH J.D. Martinez.  Many speculate that the Dodgers didn't spend this offseason so they can offer a half a billion dollars to Shohei Ohtani next winter.

Most Important Hitter

Max Muncy

The Dodgers still have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the heart of their lineup, but a lineup is more than two players (just ask the Angels).  Max Muncy is one of those players that the Dodgers are really counting on to provide that depth.  The Dodgers unlocked something in Muncy when he joined the team in 2018 as he hit over 35 home runs in 2018, 2019, and 2021 while making the All Star team twice.  However, in 2022 Muncy took a step back, only hitting 21 home runs with an OPS+ of 97.  With Justin Turner's departure, Muncy is now the everyday third baseman, especially with second base not really an option anymore with the new shift ban.  If he returns to his 2021 form, that will go a long way in keeping the Dodger lineup moving.

Most Important Pitcher

Dustin May

Julio Urias emerged as an ace last season, and Clayton Kershaw is still around, however the biggest X-factor in the Dodger rotation is Dustin May.  At one point, May was one of the most promising prospects in all of baseball, but injuries have made it difficult for him to reach his potential.  He will have every opportunity in 2023 to show what he can do.  His stuff is still filthy so as long as he can stay healthy, May may be a prime breakout candidate this season.

Prospect to Watch

Miguel Vargas

The miracle of this run the Dodgers are on is they have been able to make the blockbuster trades and sign the big free agents while maintaining one of the best farm systems in all of baseball.  Ranked either 1st or 2nd (to the Orioles), the Dodgers currently have 7 prospects in the Top 100.  This organizational depth is going to be leaned on this season to help replace some of the departing star power, with several rookies getting Opening Day starts.  One of those is Miguel Vargas.  Ranked 37th in the Top 100, the 23 year old Cuban can play anywhere on the field, but will be looked to as the everyday second baseman this season.  Vargas is a pretty elite hitter so as long as he hits, the Dodgers will find a role for him.

2023 Prediction

1st in NL West, win World Series

There you have it!  My World Series pick!  I love what the Dodgers did (or didn't do) to get ready for this year.  There's something to the consistency and trusting the talent you have, especially finally allowing the young talent to truly get a chance to thrive at the big league level.  The sneakiest move of the whole offseason might be the trade for Miguel Rojas, especially after Gavin Lux's injury.  I don't see the Dodgers winning 111 games again this season.  In fact, I have them picked to have the worst record among the division champs and having to play through the Wild Card Round.  However, it just makes too much sense that the year no one is paying attention to them is the year they go all the way.  Also, can you imagine a Yankees/Dodgers World Series?  It's a marketing dream!

Fearless Prediction

Clayton Kershaw retires after this season.

Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers of this generation.  He is a 9 time All Star, a former MVP, won the pitching Triple Crown and 3 Cy Youngs.  He is also in his age 35 season and has been making a habit of signing 1 year contracts recently.  There have been rumblings that he has started questioning when it's time to call it a career each offseason.  I would imagine a full season World Series championship will be the perfect opportunity for Kershaw to ride off into the Cooperstown sunset.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

#15

The San Diego Padres won one of the biggest sweepstakes in recent baseball memory.  Will the addition of Manny Machado lead to more wins in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL West

The Padres will trade for a top-end staring pitcher mid-season.

2018 Results

66-96, 5th in NL West

The Padres had a lot of promise going into the 2018 season after signing one of the top available players in Eric Hosmer.  However, they still almost lost 100 games as Hosmer disappointed in his first year in San Diego.  They may not have traded for a starter during last season, even though their starting rotation was their biggest weakness, but that isn't from a lack of trying.

Additions / Subtraction

One of the biggest moves of the offseason for any team was the Padres picking up Manny Machado to man third base for the next 10 years.  Outside of the big prize though, the Padres were fairly quiet.  Veteran Ian Kinsler was brought in to play second base and starter Garrett Richards was added even though he won't pitch until 2020.  All of their eggs were in the Machado basket, and luckily it paid off.

Most Important Hitter

Eric Hosmer

The Padres have taken the philosophy of signing high-priced free agents to provide a veteran presence in a lineup of younger prospects.  Like I said earlier, Eric Hosmer was the prized signing a year ago, however he was a below average hitter and only garnered a 1.4 WAR after a 4 win season in 2017.  He needs to justify his signing by showing he and Machado are the cornerstones the Padres can build around.  If the Padres are to take the next step this season, he needs to be a major reason why.

Most Important Pitcher

Kirby Yates

There is not a single proven starter in the Padres rotation.  This means the bullpen will be relied on at many time throughout the season.  Kirby Yates hopped into the closer role last year after Brad Hand was traded, and he will most likely have the same job this season.  A needed confidence boost for young starting pitchers is to know that when they have a good outing, the bullpen will be able to hold the lead.  Yates is an important part of bringing about that confidence.

Prospect to Watch

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the reasons Manny Machado said he chose the Padres over other teams like the White Sox and Phillies was their top rated farm system.  Manny saw the amount of talent he would be playing with in the next few seasons and saw an opportunity to be a part of something special.  The Padres farm system truly is something special right now, with 10 (yes 10!) prospects in MLB's top 100 best prospects.  Many of these prospects have a chance to either make their debuts or play a key role in the 2019 season including pitchers Logan Allen, Michel Baez, and Chris Paddack, middle infielder Luis Urias, and catcher Francisco Mejia.  However, the prize of their system is shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.  Only rivaled by Vlad Jr. in baseball farm systems, the 20 year old Tatis Jr. has often been compared to Manny Machado in comparing him to what kind of player he could be.  Chances are we won't see him in 2019, but if the Padres have any sort of success this season, they may want to show off their shiny new toy and debut their future infield that will be in place for at least half a decade.  Mejia catching, Hosmer at first, Urias at second, Tatis at short, and Manny at third.  That is going to be hard to beat.

2019 Predictions

3rd in NL West

With the Diamondbacks taking a step back, and the Giants needing to rebuild, 2019 seems to be aligned for the Padres to finally take the step forward they have been wanting to take.  So many of their prospects are ready to make an impact, they have their veterans to anchor their roster.  Look for them to have a decent run at a Wild Card.  If they don't take advantage of this opportunity, look for the Padres to move on from manager Andy Green.

Fearless Prediction

The Padres will trade for a top-end starting pitcher mid-season.

Sound familiar?  They were hunting for one all last season, they were hunting for one this offseason.  They just haven't seemed to find the right fit, which is crazy considering just how much of a pitcher-friendly park they have in San Diego.  Like I said, they have a ton of prospects, but you need an established guy to lead and take off some pressure.  With all their prospects, they could easily package a few together to get the guy they are looking for and still have a glut of talent in the minors.  They will want someone with some club control, and some teams might be willing to part with one knowing what kind of talent they could get back.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have consistently been one of the most talented teams in the league, but have yet to get over the hump and turn it into postseason success.  Will 2016 change that trend?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL West, lose World Series

2015 Result: 92-70, 1st in NL West, lost in NLDS

The Dodgers had a wonderful 2015 regular season, boasting the best two pitchers in all of baseball.  Clayton Kershaw is the pitcher from another world, but it was Zach Greinke that wound up on top.  However, once again they were not able to turn regular season success into postseason victories as they lost to the eventual NL champs in the NLDS.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

After Greinke had such a historic season in 2015, he skipped town and signed with Arizona.  This was really the only subtraction, but it's a big subtraction.  Added to the roster for 2016 is Scott Kazmir and Japanese import Kenta Maeda to replace the production lost by Greinke.  Other than that, the Dodgers have practically the same roster, however there was one more major change.  Manager Don Mattingly is now in Miami, and rookie manager Dave Roberts has taken over the helm for LA.

Most Important Hitter

Yasiel Puig

Yasiel Puig is one of the greatest enigmas in all of baseball.  For a week, he will look like an MVP candidate.  The next week, he will look like he couldn't make the AAA squad.  People love to talk about his flash and flair, but he needs to be more productive on the field.  If he can consistently produce, all of a sudden their lineup is one of the best in baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Kenta Maeda

It's rare that a team's most important player entering the season is a rookie, but Japanese imports are not ordinary rookies.  Kenta Maeda was one of the most sought-after free agent pitchers this offseason.  The Dodgers brought him in to potentially be the other ace at the top of the rotation with Clayton Kershaw.  Replacing Zach Greinke is next to impossible, but if Maeda pitches the way some people think he can, he will come close.

Player to Watch

Julio Urias

Everyone knows about Corey Seager: Opening Day starting shortstop, favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, and outside candidate for NL MVP.  However, whenever the Dodgers' farm system would be mentioned in trade talks, there were two untouchable prospects named.  The first was Seager, and the second was Julio Urias.  This 19 year old lefty is on a fast track to the big leagues, and if the Dodgers' injury issues continue in their starting rotation, look for Urias to make his big league debut sooner rather than later.  It's obvious that the Dodgers are banking on the future of their franchise to be built around Seager and Urias.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

The Dodgers are set to have another strong regular season in 2016.  Their rotation is not as strong as last year, but it is still pretty good.  Their lineup is always good as well.  However, the problem has always been what they do in the postseason.  With the steps forward the Giants have taken, I see the Dodgers having to work their way through the Wild Card game.  They will win that game, but not get any further.  They need to figure out what it will take to make that next step soon as their current core of players are not getting any younger.

Fearless Prediction

Yasiel Puig will be traded by the Trade Deadline.

One of the things I think it will take for the Dodgers to take a step forward in their progress and production will be to move on from Yasiel Puig.  He has been more distracting than dominant as the Dodgers never quite know what they are going to get out of him.  Sometimes, it is not just about having good players but having the right good players.  The outfield is a position of great depth for the Dodgers, with Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, and Scott Van Slyke all proven big leaguers also on the roster.  They could easily afford to lose Puig, and they would still be able to get a big return for him from somebody.  This is a move that needs to happen though if the Dodgers want to win any time soon.