2024 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #20

The Kansas City Royals had a sneaky good off-season.  Does it have them set up to contend in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Vinnie Pasquatino

MIP - Daniel Lynch

PTW - Drew Waters

FP - Bobby Witt Jr. will be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All Star Game in 2023.

2023 Results

#29 - 56-106, 5th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Bobby Witt Jr.

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Cole Ragans

The Royals struggled in 2023 despite having one of the most dynamic young players in the game.  Their young first base slugger was hurt most of the season, their young pitching stumbled...  It was almost all bad.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals off-season was defined by a bunch of smaller signings that make you say, "Oh, that's a sneaky good move."  They brought in starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to stabilize their rotation.  They brought in relievers Will Smith, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton to stabilize the bullpen.  They brought in veterans Adam Frazier and Hunter Renfroe to stabilize the lineup.  Not one of these moves moves the needle, but the combination of them all is impressive.

Most Important Hitter

Bobby Witt Jr.

I don't know if another team is tying its entire success over the next decade to one player quite like the Royals and Bobby Witt Jr.  Entering his third season, Witt has shown he is everything that his potential promised.  Somehow he didn't make the All Star Team last year, but he did finish 7th in MVP despite being on a 100+ loss team.  He could be in the conversation as one of the best players in baseball in the next year or two.  All the small moves the Royals made only work if Witt stays healthy and continues to play like a budding superstar.

Most Important Pitcher

Cole Ragans

Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season for Aroldis Chapman, Cole Ragans came to the Royals and quickly established himself as the ace of the young staff.  It was success he hadn't seen yet in the big leagues.  Now, with all the veterans on the pitching staff, the Royals are looking to Ragans to continue his dominance he showed at the end of last season and emerge as a true ace.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Loftin

The Royals currently have the 28th best farm system in baseball with only one prospect ranked in the Top 100, and that prospect won't be ready for at least another year.  Their second best prospect, though, started the season on the Opening Day roster.  Nick Loftin was drafted in 2020 as a top shortstop, and now he is entering 2024 as the go to utility man in Kansas City.  It takes a true athlete to thrive in a role like that, and the Royals believe he is that kind of athlete.  He could be yet another sneaky good addition to this roster.

2024 Prediction

2nd in AL Central

I know it would be quite a jump, but the Royals have two things going for them.  First, their roster may have seen more turnover than any other roster in the league, mainly with proven veterans.  Second, the AL Central is the weakest division in baseball ... by a lot.  The Royals are poised to make a leap like this in 2024.  They won't have much of a shot at the Wild Card, but they could make a push for the division crown.

Fearless Prediction

Salvador Perez will be traded before the start of next season.

The one constant in Kansas City over the highs and lows of the last decade has been Salvador Perez behind the plate.  He was on the team before their run in the mid-2010's, and he's the last one left after that run ended.  Now, he is in the last two seasons of his contract, and the Royals have a catcher as their top prospect.  It's not very likely, but there's a chance the Royals decide to finally move on from Sally, see what they can get for him, and move forward with their young prospect next year.  It's probably more likely that Perez is a lifelong Royal, but the possibility is there.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

#15

The San Diego Padres won one of the biggest sweepstakes in recent baseball memory.  Will the addition of Manny Machado lead to more wins in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL West

The Padres will trade for a top-end staring pitcher mid-season.

2018 Results

66-96, 5th in NL West

The Padres had a lot of promise going into the 2018 season after signing one of the top available players in Eric Hosmer.  However, they still almost lost 100 games as Hosmer disappointed in his first year in San Diego.  They may not have traded for a starter during last season, even though their starting rotation was their biggest weakness, but that isn't from a lack of trying.

Additions / Subtraction

One of the biggest moves of the offseason for any team was the Padres picking up Manny Machado to man third base for the next 10 years.  Outside of the big prize though, the Padres were fairly quiet.  Veteran Ian Kinsler was brought in to play second base and starter Garrett Richards was added even though he won't pitch until 2020.  All of their eggs were in the Machado basket, and luckily it paid off.

Most Important Hitter

Eric Hosmer

The Padres have taken the philosophy of signing high-priced free agents to provide a veteran presence in a lineup of younger prospects.  Like I said earlier, Eric Hosmer was the prized signing a year ago, however he was a below average hitter and only garnered a 1.4 WAR after a 4 win season in 2017.  He needs to justify his signing by showing he and Machado are the cornerstones the Padres can build around.  If the Padres are to take the next step this season, he needs to be a major reason why.

Most Important Pitcher

Kirby Yates

There is not a single proven starter in the Padres rotation.  This means the bullpen will be relied on at many time throughout the season.  Kirby Yates hopped into the closer role last year after Brad Hand was traded, and he will most likely have the same job this season.  A needed confidence boost for young starting pitchers is to know that when they have a good outing, the bullpen will be able to hold the lead.  Yates is an important part of bringing about that confidence.

Prospect to Watch

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the reasons Manny Machado said he chose the Padres over other teams like the White Sox and Phillies was their top rated farm system.  Manny saw the amount of talent he would be playing with in the next few seasons and saw an opportunity to be a part of something special.  The Padres farm system truly is something special right now, with 10 (yes 10!) prospects in MLB's top 100 best prospects.  Many of these prospects have a chance to either make their debuts or play a key role in the 2019 season including pitchers Logan Allen, Michel Baez, and Chris Paddack, middle infielder Luis Urias, and catcher Francisco Mejia.  However, the prize of their system is shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.  Only rivaled by Vlad Jr. in baseball farm systems, the 20 year old Tatis Jr. has often been compared to Manny Machado in comparing him to what kind of player he could be.  Chances are we won't see him in 2019, but if the Padres have any sort of success this season, they may want to show off their shiny new toy and debut their future infield that will be in place for at least half a decade.  Mejia catching, Hosmer at first, Urias at second, Tatis at short, and Manny at third.  That is going to be hard to beat.

2019 Predictions

3rd in NL West

With the Diamondbacks taking a step back, and the Giants needing to rebuild, 2019 seems to be aligned for the Padres to finally take the step forward they have been wanting to take.  So many of their prospects are ready to make an impact, they have their veterans to anchor their roster.  Look for them to have a decent run at a Wild Card.  If they don't take advantage of this opportunity, look for the Padres to move on from manager Andy Green.

Fearless Prediction

The Padres will trade for a top-end starting pitcher mid-season.

Sound familiar?  They were hunting for one all last season, they were hunting for one this offseason.  They just haven't seemed to find the right fit, which is crazy considering just how much of a pitcher-friendly park they have in San Diego.  Like I said, they have a ton of prospects, but you need an established guy to lead and take off some pressure.  With all their prospects, they could easily package a few together to get the guy they are looking for and still have a glut of talent in the minors.  They will want someone with some club control, and some teams might be willing to part with one knowing what kind of talent they could get back.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

#29

The San Diego Padres have seen all sorts of extremes over the last couple years.  They were all in one year, then rebuilding the next.  What will 2017 hold?

My 2016 Predictions

5th in NL West

The Padres will trade over half of their starting rotation by the end of the season.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in NL West

A combination of hitting a complete reset button on their franchise and having one of the most competitive divisions in baseball resulted in a dismal 2016 for the Padres.  The silver lining to their season was the experience they gave to all their youth, including rookie manager Andy Green.  As for last year's fearless prediction, I nailed it!  Starting pitchers that were traded during the 2016 season numbered 3 or 4 (could've been 5), depending on who you want to count.  Drew Pomeranz ended the season with the Red Sox, Andrew Cashner ended the year with the Marlins, and James Shields was traded to the White Sox.  Colin Rea, last year's player to watch, was traded to the Marlins with Cashner but given back after he needed Tommy John surgery just one start in.  Tyson Ross, the best of the group, very easily could have been traded as well if he hadn't gotten hurt on Opening Day and sat out the rest of the year.

Additions / Subtractions

With all the trades made during the season, the Padres were fairly quiet during the offseason.  They let Tyson Ross walk and brought in veteran starters Jered Weaver and Jhoulys Chacin to fill out a very young rotation.  The biggest move of the offseason was the commitment to Wil Myers, making him the cornerstone of the new look Padres for years to come.

Most Important Hitter

Wil Myers

With the Padres in full rebuild mode, Wil Myers is one of the few players in the lineup with extensive big league experience.  He is also coming off a breakout All Star season in 2016.  He could easily emerge as a borderline superstar in 2017, which would allow all the youngsters in the lineup to relax and play without too much pressure.

Most Important Pitcher

Brandon Maurer

When the Padres traded Fernando Rodney last season, it opened up the competition at the back end of their bullpen for closer.  The most talented arm back there that should emerge is Brandon Maurer.  If he does, they potentially have a star in the making anchoring their bullpen.  He needs to be dominant if the bullpen is going to be serviceable this season.

Player to Watch

Manuel Margot & Hunter Renfroe

I couldn't just pick one.  These two outfield prospects are two of the most prized possessions of the Padres' farm system, and both are projected to make a huge impact this season.  Twenty-two year old Margot, one of the players acquired in the trade that sent Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox, is the Padres' top prospect and is competing for the starting centerfield job.  Twenty-five year old Renfroe is a former first round pick of the Padres and is projected to be the starting rightfielder on Opening Day.  These two should forever be linked as cornerstones of the Padres' new core.

2017 Prediction

5th in NL West

The Padres are not quite ready to crawl out of the cellar of the NL West.  This is more due to the strength of the division than anything.  However, the pitching staff, which was once their strength, is now something that has a lot of learning still to do.  They will be fun to watch moving forward, but they are a few years away from being good.

Fearless Prediction

Margot and Renfroe will finish in the top 3 of Rookie of the Year voting in 2017.

I really want to predict that one of them will win this award, but any rational prognosticator would be crazy to pick anyone but the Braves' Dansby Swanson as the pre-season Rookie of the Year.  With that said, I see these two having a great year that might even get people talking about the Padres (which is a feat in itself).