2024 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #20

The Kansas City Royals had a sneaky good off-season.  Does it have them set up to contend in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Vinnie Pasquatino

MIP - Daniel Lynch

PTW - Drew Waters

FP - Bobby Witt Jr. will be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All Star Game in 2023.

2023 Results

#29 - 56-106, 5th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Bobby Witt Jr.

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Cole Ragans

The Royals struggled in 2023 despite having one of the most dynamic young players in the game.  Their young first base slugger was hurt most of the season, their young pitching stumbled...  It was almost all bad.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals off-season was defined by a bunch of smaller signings that make you say, "Oh, that's a sneaky good move."  They brought in starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to stabilize their rotation.  They brought in relievers Will Smith, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton to stabilize the bullpen.  They brought in veterans Adam Frazier and Hunter Renfroe to stabilize the lineup.  Not one of these moves moves the needle, but the combination of them all is impressive.

Most Important Hitter

Bobby Witt Jr.

I don't know if another team is tying its entire success over the next decade to one player quite like the Royals and Bobby Witt Jr.  Entering his third season, Witt has shown he is everything that his potential promised.  Somehow he didn't make the All Star Team last year, but he did finish 7th in MVP despite being on a 100+ loss team.  He could be in the conversation as one of the best players in baseball in the next year or two.  All the small moves the Royals made only work if Witt stays healthy and continues to play like a budding superstar.

Most Important Pitcher

Cole Ragans

Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season for Aroldis Chapman, Cole Ragans came to the Royals and quickly established himself as the ace of the young staff.  It was success he hadn't seen yet in the big leagues.  Now, with all the veterans on the pitching staff, the Royals are looking to Ragans to continue his dominance he showed at the end of last season and emerge as a true ace.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Loftin

The Royals currently have the 28th best farm system in baseball with only one prospect ranked in the Top 100, and that prospect won't be ready for at least another year.  Their second best prospect, though, started the season on the Opening Day roster.  Nick Loftin was drafted in 2020 as a top shortstop, and now he is entering 2024 as the go to utility man in Kansas City.  It takes a true athlete to thrive in a role like that, and the Royals believe he is that kind of athlete.  He could be yet another sneaky good addition to this roster.

2024 Prediction

2nd in AL Central

I know it would be quite a jump, but the Royals have two things going for them.  First, their roster may have seen more turnover than any other roster in the league, mainly with proven veterans.  Second, the AL Central is the weakest division in baseball ... by a lot.  The Royals are poised to make a leap like this in 2024.  They won't have much of a shot at the Wild Card, but they could make a push for the division crown.

Fearless Prediction

Salvador Perez will be traded before the start of next season.

The one constant in Kansas City over the highs and lows of the last decade has been Salvador Perez behind the plate.  He was on the team before their run in the mid-2010's, and he's the last one left after that run ended.  Now, he is in the last two seasons of his contract, and the Royals have a catcher as their top prospect.  It's not very likely, but there's a chance the Royals decide to finally move on from Sally, see what they can get for him, and move forward with their young prospect next year.  It's probably more likely that Perez is a lifelong Royal, but the possibility is there.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #25

The Kansas City Royals are getting close to being able to compete again after tearing down the roster following their World Series win in 2015.  Is 2023 the year they break out an be relevant again?

2022 Predictions

#21 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Zack Greinke

PTW - Bobby Witt Jr.

2022 Results

#26 - 65-97, 5th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Michael A. Taylor

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Brady Singer

The 2022 Royals was all about the youth movement.  It saw the debut of phenom Bobby Witt Jr., who played 150 and showed he truly is the budding superstar everyone thought he would be.  Brady Singer had a breakout season and showed he can be the ace everyone thought he would be.  Veterans Salvador Perez and Zack Greinke anchored the team and provided the necessary veteran leadership.  The problem is the rest of the roster wasn't up to par.  However, there were promising signs for the future for sure.

Additions / Subtractions

After selling off several veterans at the Trade Deadline last year like Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, and Andrew Benintendi, the Royals had a typical Royals offseason by not paying their own veterans hitting free agency and instead signing some interesting veterans with tons of upside.  So their best player (in terms of WAR) in Michael A. Taylor signed elsewhere, and Adalberto Mondesi was traded to Boston.  Coming in are starter Jordan Lyles and reliever Aroldis Chapman.  The one exception was ageless wonder Zack Greinke who is still going strong and should definitely finish his career in Kansas City.  The other major change for the Royals was the change at manager, with Matt Quatraro taking over for Mike Matheny.

Most Important Hitter

Vinnie Pasquatino

Although everyone entered the season fascinated by Bobby Witt Jr., the most popular player by the end of the season might have been fellow rookie Vinnie Pasquatino.  Nicknamed "The Italian Nightmare," Pasquatino showed his pure hitting skills could translate to the big leagues, batting .295 with 10 homers, 26 RBI's with a 135 OPS+ over 72 games.  This year, he will be counted on as a middle of the order bat despite not even having half a season of big league experience under his belt.  Witt Jr. will impact the game no matter what because of his athleticism.  If the Royals are going to take a step forward this year, it is going to be because of Vinnie Pasquatino.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Lynch

With Brady Singer emerging as the ace of the Royals, the focus goes to who will be providing the depth behind him.  Enter Daniel Lynch.  Entering his age 26 season (just like Singer), Lynch will be starting his 2nd full season in the big leagues.  Last season was not necessarily successful, as he posted a 4-13 record with a 5.13 ERA and an 80 ERA+ in 27 starts.  The Royals will be looking for him to take a step forward similar to what Singer did last year.  If he does, the Royals have a formidable right/left, 1/2 punch at the top of their rotation for the foreseeable future.

Prospect to Watch

Drew Waters

The Royals overall farm system took a hit last year with players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquatino graduating from the list.  Now they only boast one Top 100 prospect, and he is still probably a couple years away from the big leagues.  With that said, the Royals do have some fascinating prospects that could provide real impact at the big league level this season.  One of those in Drew Waters.  A former 2nd round pick of the Braves, the Royals traded for Waters mid-season for a draft pick.  Playing 32 games for the Royals in 2022, Waters barely maintained his prospect status but also showed some good production, with a 124 OPS+.  Now the Royals will go into Opening Day 2023 with Waters as their centerfielder, and he will be given every opportunity this season to show he is their centerfielder of the future.

2023 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The Royals are the start of a section on these power rankings of teams that are still rebuilding but are very close to breaking out in a big way.  The AL Central is not as strong as other divisions, their youth movement is really starting to show it's worth paying attention to, and it shouldn't shock anyone if the Royals end up close to .500 by the end of the season.

Fearless Prediction

Bobby Witt Jr. will be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All Star Game in 2023.

He has all the potential to be one of the game's next superstars.  He is dynamic young player that can do it all.  Last year he just scratched the surface.  If he takes the next step, look for him to be the talk of the league and win a fan vote for the best shortstop in the American League.  The Royals fans have shown in the past that they will come out in droves to vote for their stars when they have one to vote for.  It could make the Mid-Summer Classic a coming-out party for Bobby Witt Jr. in a similar way it was for Julio Rodriguez in 2022.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #24

The Kansas City Royals had one of the more aggressive offseasons, making several surprising splashes.  Will that work lead to success in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Brad Keller

PTW - Brady Singer

FP - Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

2020 Results

#24 - 26-34, 4th in AL Central

The Royals had some moderate success in 2020, but their talent level just couldn't carry them very far.  I had their season well predicted though.  Their two best players in terms of WAR were Salvador Perez and Brad Keller.  Third on that list was rookie Brady Singer.  Jorge Soler came out of the clouds of his home run title in 2019 and only hit 8 home runs in the shortened year.  It seemed like their season was fairly predictable.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals decided this offseason that waiting for the next Hosmer/Gordon/Perez/Moustakas/Cain core to come out of their farm system wasn't worth being mediocre anymore.  So they went out and spent a little money.  They brought in Carlos Santana to play first base.  They signed Mike Minor to round out the rotation.  they signed Michael A. Taylor to play centerfield.  Possibly the biggest move of the offseason they had was trading for Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox to replace the retiring Alex Gordon.  No one can claim the Royals are tanking after what they did this winter.

Most Important Hitter

Jorge Soler

Even with all the new pieces coming into the roster, the heart of the order will still revolve around their big slugger.  Jorge Soler broke out in 2019 with 48 homers.  Although he wasn't bad in 2020, it was not up to the level of that career year.  With bats like Santana and Benintendi giving him protection in the lineup, he has every opportunity to bounce back in 2021.  If he does, this could be a potent offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Staumont

The Royals appear to have a pretty solid rotation with Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, and phenom Brady Singer leading the way.  The hole appears to be the bullpen that doesn't have a clear arm to anchor the back half of the game.  Josh Staumont is a young arm that had some success in 2020.  They need him, or an arm similar to him, to emerge as an elite reliever to lead the way.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Witt Jr.

By far, the top prospect in the Royals' system is shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.  The second pick in the 2019 draft, Witt is currently ranked as the 7th best prospect in all of baseball.  Making his debut in 2021 might be a little bit of a stretch, but he has the skill and raw talent to make that kind of jump.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL Central

I feel like there are some definite tiers to MLB teams in 2021.  Numbers 30-25 are teams that really have no chance to make a significant impact in 2021.  The Royals start a run of teams that are probably not making the playoffs, but they have the talent to make things interesting.  I am probably underselling the Royals and what they can do in 2021 by putting them this low, but I just don't think they are quite at a point where they can climb much beyond here.  Because of the growth from some other teams in the division, that puts them in the cellar.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.

If the Royals are truly this far out of contention, they should be sellers at the deadline this season.  Their lineup is so young though, that I doubt they will trade away any hitters.  Their pitching staff, however, has a few veteran arms that I could see being moved.  Mike Minor and Danny Duffy are the prime candidates to be traded.