2023 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #17

The Miami Marlins have some of the most exciting talent in all of baseball on their roster.  Can their stars stay healthy and produce a better season on the field in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#23 - 4th in NL East

MIH - Jazz Chisholm Jr.

MIP - Jesus Luzardo

PTW - Max Meyer

2022 Results

#22 - 63-93, 4th in NL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Miguel Rojas

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Sandy Alcantara

The Marlins 2022 season can be summed up in one word: Sandy.  Sandy Alcantara emerged as possibly the best pitcher in all of baseball (if not the best, at least the biggest workhorse) and wrapped up the season with a Cy Young and a top 10 MVP finish.  With that said, the Marlins ran into two problems in 2022.  They were in one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball, and the rest of the roster couldn't keep up with Sandy.  Alcantara had an 8.0 WAR season, but the next best player had only a 3.0 WAR season (Pablo Lopez).  The players in 4th and 5th on the team in WAR (Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) only played 102 and 60 games respectively.  If guys who only play half the season put together your most productive seasons, it's hard to have a productive season.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest move of the offseason for the Marlins is manager Don Mattingly moving on and replaced by rookie manager Skip Schumaker.  In terms of the roster, the Marlins made some fascinating moves that rode the line between building the big league roster and moving on from big league talent.  They traded shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers.  The traded starter Pablo Lopez to the Twins for last year's AL batting champ Luis Arraez.  They traded J.J. Bleday to the A's for A.J. Puk in an exchange of former phenoms in need of a change of scenery.  They signed a crew of veterans that includes starter Johnny Cueto, reliever Matt Barnes, infielders Yuli Gurriel, Jean Segura, and Jose Iglesias.  It was a very active offseason for sure.

Most Important Hitter

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

I said he was the Marlins most important hitter in 2022, but it might be even more important in 2023.  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a budding superstar that is quickly becoming one of the more recognizable faces in baseball.  His style and flash have turned enough heads to make him the cover athlete for this year's MLB The Show even though he has barely played 200 career games.  He was an All Star in 2022, but injuries held him to only 60 games.  Now, with the acquisition of Luis Arraez, Jazz is not only trying to stay healthy, but he's planning on doing it at the new position of centerfield.  This season will be a big season for Jazz as he tries to prove that he deserves the notoriety he has garnered, and also that he can anchor the Marlins lineup and locker room.

Most Important Pitcher

Sandy Alcantara

It's easy to say the reigning Cy Young Award is going to be his team's most important pitcher, but this is especially the case for the Marlins for several reasons.  Like I said earlier, Sandy Alcantara was the Marlins last season.  He also threw over 200 innings for the second season in a row.  In fact, in 2022 he threw 23 more innings than any other pitcher in baseball.  Alcantara is a work horse and built like an old school pitcher, however this workload tends to wear down an arm pretty quick.  If the Marlins are going to have a successful season, Alcantara needs to throw 200 innings again.  The question is if his arm can withstand that innings load again.

Prospect to Watch

Eury Perez

Pretty soon, Alcantara will be joined by an electric phenom.  Eury Perez is only 19 years old (turns 20 in April) and is just about ready to make an impact at the big league level.  At 6'8" 220 pounds, Perez can touch triple digits with his fastball while featuring a full 4 pitch mix.  Ranked the 13th best prospect in MLB, if he continues to dominate at every level, the Marlins might have a second coming of their current ace.

2023 Prediction

4th in NL East

It's hard to think of a 4th place divisional finish as a step forward, but that's the best the Marlins can hope for in 2023.  I think they actually might benefit the most of any team having the balanced schedule this season.  In 2022, over one-third of the Marlins schedule was against the Mets, Braves, and NL champ Phillies.  The new schedule drops that number to less than one-fourth (39 games instead of 57).  They have a good chance at finishing the season around .500, which will be good for 4th at best with the superteams in front of them.  It feels like they are building the roster the right way though.

Fearless Prediction

Sandy Alcantara will win a second straight Cy Young.

Alcantara's arm might break down at some point, but not this year.  If he stays healthy, a second straight Cy Young should be easy for Sandy to get simply because of the high workload while remaining dominant.  No one pitches like he does anymore.  It's a bad start if he only goes 7 innings.  He wants a complete game every time out.  Alcantara had 6 complete games in 2022.  The next highest was 2.  If he is able to throw 200 innings again, the Cy Young will be in Miami again.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #24

The Kansas City Royals had one of the more aggressive offseasons, making several surprising splashes.  Will that work lead to success in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Brad Keller

PTW - Brady Singer

FP - Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

2020 Results

#24 - 26-34, 4th in AL Central

The Royals had some moderate success in 2020, but their talent level just couldn't carry them very far.  I had their season well predicted though.  Their two best players in terms of WAR were Salvador Perez and Brad Keller.  Third on that list was rookie Brady Singer.  Jorge Soler came out of the clouds of his home run title in 2019 and only hit 8 home runs in the shortened year.  It seemed like their season was fairly predictable.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals decided this offseason that waiting for the next Hosmer/Gordon/Perez/Moustakas/Cain core to come out of their farm system wasn't worth being mediocre anymore.  So they went out and spent a little money.  They brought in Carlos Santana to play first base.  They signed Mike Minor to round out the rotation.  they signed Michael A. Taylor to play centerfield.  Possibly the biggest move of the offseason they had was trading for Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox to replace the retiring Alex Gordon.  No one can claim the Royals are tanking after what they did this winter.

Most Important Hitter

Jorge Soler

Even with all the new pieces coming into the roster, the heart of the order will still revolve around their big slugger.  Jorge Soler broke out in 2019 with 48 homers.  Although he wasn't bad in 2020, it was not up to the level of that career year.  With bats like Santana and Benintendi giving him protection in the lineup, he has every opportunity to bounce back in 2021.  If he does, this could be a potent offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Staumont

The Royals appear to have a pretty solid rotation with Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, and phenom Brady Singer leading the way.  The hole appears to be the bullpen that doesn't have a clear arm to anchor the back half of the game.  Josh Staumont is a young arm that had some success in 2020.  They need him, or an arm similar to him, to emerge as an elite reliever to lead the way.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Witt Jr.

By far, the top prospect in the Royals' system is shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.  The second pick in the 2019 draft, Witt is currently ranked as the 7th best prospect in all of baseball.  Making his debut in 2021 might be a little bit of a stretch, but he has the skill and raw talent to make that kind of jump.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL Central

I feel like there are some definite tiers to MLB teams in 2021.  Numbers 30-25 are teams that really have no chance to make a significant impact in 2021.  The Royals start a run of teams that are probably not making the playoffs, but they have the talent to make things interesting.  I am probably underselling the Royals and what they can do in 2021 by putting them this low, but I just don't think they are quite at a point where they can climb much beyond here.  Because of the growth from some other teams in the division, that puts them in the cellar.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.

If the Royals are truly this far out of contention, they should be sellers at the deadline this season.  Their lineup is so young though, that I doubt they will trade away any hitters.  Their pitching staff, however, has a few veteran arms that I could see being moved.  Mike Minor and Danny Duffy are the prime candidates to be traded.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#25

The Kansas City Royals are starting fresh in 2020 with a new manager as they attempt to rebuild their roster back to the World Series caliber team they were just five short years ago.  Will this season see some progress toward their goal?

2019 Predictions

#29 - 5th in AL Central

MIH: Adalberto Mondesi

MIP: Danny Duffy

PTW: Nicky Lopez

FP: The Royals will not trade away any lineup pieces mid-season.

2019 Results

#27 - 59-103, 4th in AL Central

Somehow, the Royals were able to lose over 100 games and stay out of the cellar.  This speaks more to how bad the Tigers were than anything.  The Royals have entered full rebuild mode with only three players left over from their 2015 World Series win (Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy ... four if you want to count a random postseason appearance by a then 19 year old Adalberto Mondesi).  Although Mondesi is continuing to be a solid player in the big leagues, the youngster still hasn't taken the leap that his talent level promised when he was a prospect.  It seems as if the best of Danny Duffy is behind him, as he hasn't become the lockdown ace it looked like he could be in 2016 and 2017.  Nicky Lopez showed enough in 2019 to be entering the 2020 season as the team's starting second baseman, moving perennial All Star Whit Merrifield to centerfield, but he still has a lot to prove.  As far as my prediction, the Royals were indeed very quiet in terms of trades during the season.  Although Merrifield is constantly part of trade rumors, the Royals want to keep guys like that around instead of using him to help build the future.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals are entering 2020 with almost the exact same roster they had at the end of 2019.  The one addition they made was bringing in former Phillie Maikel Franco to man the hot corner.  They also re-signed leftfielder Alex Gordon for his age 36 season, more out of loyalty than anything.  The biggest change to the Royals this season is the retirement of their World Series manager Ned Yost who was replaced by former catcher and Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.  Matheny seems like the perfect guy to lead this team.

Most Important Hitter

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez is a 6 time All Star catcher with 5 Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers.  He was also the MVP of the 2015 World Series.  When the Royals needed to start a rebuild and move on from the core of their World Series roster, Perez was the one of the few they kept, locking him up through 2021.  With all that said, this is an important season for Sal.  He is coming off a lost 2019 season after Tommy John surgery was needed last spring.  So he is going to have to fight through the rust and fatigue of missing all that time while also mentoring the young pitching staff trying to find their way and return to his Gold Glove caliber play.  If is a tough challenge, but if anyone is up to it, it is Sal Perez.

Most Important Pitcher

Brad Keller

The best pitcher on the Royals last year was Brad Keller.  In his second season in the big leagues, Keller posted a 4.19 ERA, a 113 ERA+, and a 2.8 WAR.  Now he is entering 2020 (his age 24 season) as their ace and needs to take another leap forward to solidify the top of their rotation.  Look for Keller to be one of the quiet success stories of the 2020 season.

Prospect to Watch

Brady Singer

The Royals' farm system is still a work in progress.  They have three players in the top 100 prospects, topped by last year's #2 overall pick Bobby Witt Jr. at #10.  However, the majority of their prospects are still a few seasons away from making a big league impact.  The exception to that is pitcher Brady Singer.  A 2018 1st round pick out of Florida, Singer worked his way all the way up to AA in his first taste of pro ball.  His sinker/slider combo plays at any level and should start to establish himself at the top of the Royals' rotation at some point this season.

2020 Prediction

4th in AL Central

Much like last season, the only thing keeping the Royals from the cellar of the AL Central will be the struggles of the Detroit Tigers.  With that said, I see the Royals taking some baby steps forward.  Keeping their veteran core around, while unconventional in today's MLB, is allowing for the youngsters to come along slowly and learn from the best.  Like I said, I think the Matheny hire was a home run for the Royals.  With all this said, the best description for the Royals in 2020 is ... boring.  For the most part, they are going to be a boring team.  They are in a rare spot in baseball these days.  They are not stockpiled to win now, and their farm system is not stockpiled for a rebuild.  They also don't seem to be working at achieving one of those goals very quickly.  Instead, they are just ... boring.  They will win some games, they will lose more, but it doesn't seem like 2020 is really progressing towards much of anything.

Fearless Prediction

Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

The breakout star for the Royals in 2020 was by far Jorge Soler.  Formerly a top prospect of the Cubs, Soler had really struggled to find his place in the big leagues.  His career high in games played before 2019 was 101, and his career high in homers was 12.  Then came 2019, where he played in all 162 games and led the AL with 48 home runs.  Did he finally figure it out, or was it a fluke?  I am betting on it being a fluke.  Look for his home run total to be around half of what it was last year.  Either that, or he hits 50+.  It will be one or the other.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

There may not have been a more talked about team this offseason than the Chicago Cubs.  Will all the publicity and attention get them any closer to ending the most infamous drought in professional sports?

Last Season

73-89, 5th in NL Central

Under new manager Rick Renteria, the Cubs had their best season since 2010, which just means they didn't lose 90+ games.  It was definitely a transition year as some of the current stars were shipped out to bring in fresh talent and make room for the budding superstars Theo Epstein has been stockpiling in the farm system.  A lot of youngsters saw their first big league action in 2014 and more will see the field in 2015.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The remodeling of this year's team officially started when the Cubs started trading last season, shipping off players like Jeff Samardzija and Darwin Barney.  Then came the offseason everyone has been talking about.  Jon Lester brings instant credibility to a rotation needing a leader after Samardzija (Lester's now former Athletic teammate actually) was dealt.  Lester is a proven leader and winner at all levels.  Complementary pieces like Dexter Fowler to hold the fort in centerfield and Miguel Montero to handle the pitching staff also improved the club, but there was one move that is going to make all the difference in the long run.  Rick Renteria did a great job managing the team last year, but the Cubs couldn't pass up the opportunity presented to them.  Joe Maddon has long been considered one of, if not the, best manager in baseball.  What he did with the low-budget, overachieving Rays year after year was amazing to watch.  Now he will be leading a team full of talent that also has a budget to go fill needs instead of trading away their stars just as they hit their prime.  If the Cubs win a World Series in the next 5 years or so, it will be because of Joe Maddon.

Most Important Hitter

Javier Baez

Outside of a few proven big leaguers, the Cubs will be letting some young prospects get their feet wet and have some on-the-job training this year.  Eventually, some of these prospects will need to turn into superstars for the Cubs to reach the heights they want to see.  The first they are counting on announcing his presence is Javier Baez.  Baez was considered one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball last season when he was given a 52 game run in Chicago.  Scouts said he hit like Manny Ramirez, but played middle infield (which is why many say the Cubs hired Manny Ramirez to help coach their AAA team last year).  He greatly underwhelmed in 2014, hitting just .169 with 9 home runs in his short stint.  Baez is obviously their second baseman of the future, but it is telling when the team trades for Tommy La Stella from Atlanta in the offseason to have an insurance policy in case Baez falls flat on his face again.  The Cubs want to be patient, but also want to start winning.  How quickly Javier Baez develops may determine how quickly the Cubs become a team to be recognized.

Most Important Pitcher

Jake Arrieta

When the Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel mid-season last year, many wondered where the quality would come from their starting pitching.  Quickly, Jake Arrieta emerged out of nowhere to be the ace of the staff.  Now with Jon Lester taking the top spot in the rotation, the Cubs are counting on Arrieta to continue his new-found success and be the solid number two starter every rotation needs.

Player to Watch

Addison Russell

It is hard to pick just one player to watch on such a young and talented team.  Jorge Soler, Cubs #3 prospect and #23 in all of baseball, is expected to start in rightfield on Opening Day, and Kris Bryant, Cubs #1 prospect and #2 in all of baseball, is putting together a Spring Training that will have people rioting if he is not the starting third baseman to start the season.  Many people already know these names and the success they are expected to have (if not, look them up ... especially Bryant).  The situation that will be most interesting to watch is what the Cubs decide to do with shortstop prospect Addison Russell.  The centerpiece of the Jeff Samardzija trade last season, Russell came over from Oakland and instantly became the Cubs' #2 prospect, only bested by Kris Bryant.  He is also the 5th best prospect in all of baseball and scheduled to be ready to make his big league debut this season.  He is obviously in the future plans of the Cubs.  The question is when and how.  If we hit mid-season, and Javier Baez still isn't working out at second base, look for Addison Russell to make his big league debut at second.  If not, don't be surprised if Starlin Castro starts to be talked about in trade rumors in June or July, no matter what their record is, to make room for this phenom and future superstar.

Prediction

3rd in NL Central

With all the moves and all the buzz surrounding the Cubs, you start to wonder if it is all hype or not.  Looking at what they have done and where it appears they are going, I am starting to buy in to what they are selling.  They have a collection of possibly the best young talent in all of baseball with possibly the best manager leading them.  I see them making a significant jump forward this year.  They won't challenge for a playoff spot this year, but a strong start could have people speculating about a playoff run as late as the All Star Break.  The Cubs aren't trying to win this year, but look out for them being perennial championship contenders within the next 5 seasons.