2023 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #17

The Miami Marlins have some of the most exciting talent in all of baseball on their roster.  Can their stars stay healthy and produce a better season on the field in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#23 - 4th in NL East

MIH - Jazz Chisholm Jr.

MIP - Jesus Luzardo

PTW - Max Meyer

2022 Results

#22 - 63-93, 4th in NL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Miguel Rojas

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Sandy Alcantara

The Marlins 2022 season can be summed up in one word: Sandy.  Sandy Alcantara emerged as possibly the best pitcher in all of baseball (if not the best, at least the biggest workhorse) and wrapped up the season with a Cy Young and a top 10 MVP finish.  With that said, the Marlins ran into two problems in 2022.  They were in one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball, and the rest of the roster couldn't keep up with Sandy.  Alcantara had an 8.0 WAR season, but the next best player had only a 3.0 WAR season (Pablo Lopez).  The players in 4th and 5th on the team in WAR (Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) only played 102 and 60 games respectively.  If guys who only play half the season put together your most productive seasons, it's hard to have a productive season.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest move of the offseason for the Marlins is manager Don Mattingly moving on and replaced by rookie manager Skip Schumaker.  In terms of the roster, the Marlins made some fascinating moves that rode the line between building the big league roster and moving on from big league talent.  They traded shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers.  The traded starter Pablo Lopez to the Twins for last year's AL batting champ Luis Arraez.  They traded J.J. Bleday to the A's for A.J. Puk in an exchange of former phenoms in need of a change of scenery.  They signed a crew of veterans that includes starter Johnny Cueto, reliever Matt Barnes, infielders Yuli Gurriel, Jean Segura, and Jose Iglesias.  It was a very active offseason for sure.

Most Important Hitter

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

I said he was the Marlins most important hitter in 2022, but it might be even more important in 2023.  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a budding superstar that is quickly becoming one of the more recognizable faces in baseball.  His style and flash have turned enough heads to make him the cover athlete for this year's MLB The Show even though he has barely played 200 career games.  He was an All Star in 2022, but injuries held him to only 60 games.  Now, with the acquisition of Luis Arraez, Jazz is not only trying to stay healthy, but he's planning on doing it at the new position of centerfield.  This season will be a big season for Jazz as he tries to prove that he deserves the notoriety he has garnered, and also that he can anchor the Marlins lineup and locker room.

Most Important Pitcher

Sandy Alcantara

It's easy to say the reigning Cy Young Award is going to be his team's most important pitcher, but this is especially the case for the Marlins for several reasons.  Like I said earlier, Sandy Alcantara was the Marlins last season.  He also threw over 200 innings for the second season in a row.  In fact, in 2022 he threw 23 more innings than any other pitcher in baseball.  Alcantara is a work horse and built like an old school pitcher, however this workload tends to wear down an arm pretty quick.  If the Marlins are going to have a successful season, Alcantara needs to throw 200 innings again.  The question is if his arm can withstand that innings load again.

Prospect to Watch

Eury Perez

Pretty soon, Alcantara will be joined by an electric phenom.  Eury Perez is only 19 years old (turns 20 in April) and is just about ready to make an impact at the big league level.  At 6'8" 220 pounds, Perez can touch triple digits with his fastball while featuring a full 4 pitch mix.  Ranked the 13th best prospect in MLB, if he continues to dominate at every level, the Marlins might have a second coming of their current ace.

2023 Prediction

4th in NL East

It's hard to think of a 4th place divisional finish as a step forward, but that's the best the Marlins can hope for in 2023.  I think they actually might benefit the most of any team having the balanced schedule this season.  In 2022, over one-third of the Marlins schedule was against the Mets, Braves, and NL champ Phillies.  The new schedule drops that number to less than one-fourth (39 games instead of 57).  They have a good chance at finishing the season around .500, which will be good for 4th at best with the superteams in front of them.  It feels like they are building the roster the right way though.

Fearless Prediction

Sandy Alcantara will win a second straight Cy Young.

Alcantara's arm might break down at some point, but not this year.  If he stays healthy, a second straight Cy Young should be easy for Sandy to get simply because of the high workload while remaining dominant.  No one pitches like he does anymore.  It's a bad start if he only goes 7 innings.  He wants a complete game every time out.  Alcantara had 6 complete games in 2022.  The next highest was 2.  If he is able to throw 200 innings again, the Cy Young will be in Miami again.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

#6

The Philadelphia Phillies followed up a surprisingly strong 2018 season by winning the Bryce Harper sweepstakes this offseason.  Will all their moves lead to another step forward in 2019?

2018 Predictions

3rd in NL East

This will be Gabe Kapler's only season as Phillies manager.

2018 Results

80-82, 3rd in NL East

I had the Phillies mostly predicted where they ended up, but finishing in 3rd doesn't tell the whole story of their season.  They were competing for the division title most of the season only to fall away down the stretch.  Their record ended up uner .500, but most of the season the talk of the NL East was the Phillies and Braves as the upstart surprises at the top of the division.  Gabe Kapler's early criticism quickly died off as the team found success.

Additions / Subtractions

Ownership for the Phillies made news early in the offseason claiming they were willing to spend "crazy money" over the offseason.  It took awhile, but crazy money they spent when they brought in Bryce Harper on a 13 year contract.  However, that was not the only move they made.  They also traded for what many consider the best catcher in baseball in J.T. Realmuto.  They have a new shortstop in Jean Segura, acquired in a trade with Seattle.  They solidified the back of their bullpen by bringing in David Robertson and rounded out their outfield by signing Andrew McCutchen.  They definitely spent some stupid money and made the most of it.

Most Important Hitter

Bryce Harper

He is the one that got all the money.  He is the one that everyone is watching.  He is their most important hitter.  This lineup is loaded, but it really only works if Harper produces in the middle of the lineup.  Not only is he the biggest name, but he is one of the only left-handed bats in the order.  Harper got this money hoping he jumps back up to his MVP level.

Most Important Pitcher

David Robertson

The main reason the Phillies started to fall apart down the stretch was a lack of a bullpen.  They couldn't finish a game.  David Robertson has been brought in to fix that.  He has been a closer, but he has also been a utility arm in the bullpen, pitching wherever he is needed.  He will be counted on this season to be the difference maker.

Prospect to Watch

Adonis Medina

One of the Phillies top prospects is 22 year old right-handed pitcher Adonis Medina.  Last season, he pitched exclusively in A ball and will start this season in AA, but if the Phillies are in the playoff hunt down the stretch, look for Medina to get a shot in the big leagues to be a spark plug in their bullpen with a shot at making their rotation in 2020.

2019 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

The NL East is going to be super competitive this season, and I see the Phillies being the team to emerge from the group.  Their lineup is just too loaded, and the top of their rotation is elite.  They are going to be hard to beat.  There is an argument that they are the most talented team now in the National League.  I am tempted to pick them to go all the way to the World Series, but these super teams never go all the way in year one.  They might be my 2020 World Series pick though.

Fearless Prediction

Aaron Nola will win the 2019 NL Cy Young.

I am a huge fan of Aaron Nola.  He basically came out of nowhere last year to have a huge season.  Everyone talks about Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but you might forget that Nola finished 3rd in the Cy Young race last season.  I see Nola being energized by their revamped offense to be even better and bring home the trophy in 2019.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

#8

The Seattle Mariners almost made the playoffs in 2014, then struggled in 2015, then almost made the playoffs in 2016.  Will 2017 continue the trend and be a struggle, or will the M's end the longest playoff drought in baseball?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in AL West

Hisashi Iwakuma makes the All Star Team.

2016 Results

86-76, 2nd in AL West

The Mariners were in the playoff race last season until the last weekend.  This exceeded many people's expectations after the whirlwind offseason they had leading into the 2016 season.  This result seemed even more unlikely after King Felix spent a good portion of the season on the DL.  Hisashi Iwakuma may not have made the All Star Team, but he was the best starter for the M's in 2016.

Additions / Subtractions

Mariners' General Manager Jerry DiPoto followed up one of the busiest offseasons ever in 2016 with one of the busiest offseasons ever in 2017.  He has completely remade the roster again, building a new group around a solid core of stars.  The biggest move of the offseason was trading phenom Taijuan Walker and young starting shortstop Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for established All Star Jean Segura.  Also, gone are Chris Iannetta, Adam Lind, Dae-ho Lee, Nori Aoki, Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez, and Nathan Karns.  Added to the roster are Carlos Ruiz, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Taylor Motter, Drew Smyly, and Yovani Gallardo.  I'm curious to see if this is going to happen every year.

Most Important Hitter

Jean Segura

When a team trades away two future stars for an established player, it proves just how important that player is going to be.  Jean Segura emerged a few years ago for the Brewers.  After a down season or two, he found himself on the D-Backs in 2016, making the All Star Team, leading the NL in hits.  The Mariners brought him in to be a consistent table setter, one thing they have been lacking ever since Ichiro moved on.  Especially with a 3-4-5 of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager, the M's need guys on base when these boppers come to the plate.  Segura needs to continue the production he had in 2016 for the Mariners to be successful in 2017.

Most Important Pitcher

Felix Hernandez

King Felix seemed to be a machine over the last decade.  He was one of the most dominant starters in baseball while making every start.  Last season, all that ended.  Felix had his highest ERA since 2007, and his least innings pitched since 2005 (his first season in the league).  Many people are counting Felix out, saying he is done being dominant.  The Mariners are counting on 2016 being an anomaly, and 2017 will be a return to dominance for the King.  If the Mariners are going to be successful this season, Felix needs to be the King.

Player to Watch

Mitch Haniger

When the Mariners traded for Jean Segura and gave up both Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte, some said they overpaid for the shortstop.  However, others said that this would not be remembered for these three players, but for Mitch Haniger.  Haniger was one of the forgotten prospects that are always thrown into trades like this, however he went out this Spring and won the starting job in rightfield on Opening Day.  The Mariners think they have found a star in Haniger that could exceed the stardom of all three known names in this deal.

2017 Prediction

3rd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The streak will end in 2017!  The Mariners have been so close several times since bringing in Robinson Cano.  With all the moves that have been made, the M's have built around their core of Cano/Cruz/Seager/Felix and found players that will complement them and their strengths.  Edwin Diaz has emerged as an electric closer that will anchor the bullpen.  With all the moves DiPoto made, the Mariners also have a lot of depth to protect from injuries.  I see the Mariners finishing in third in the division, but beating the Rangers in the one game Wild Card round.  Their run may end in the ALDS, but making the playoffs will be a huge step moving forward for the Mariners.

Fearless Prediction

Scott Servais will win AL Manager of the Year.

Ending the longest playoff drought in the league is reason enough to win Manager of the Year.  Add to that the fact that Scott Servais had his first season managing at any level last season, and taking his team to the playoffs will be that much more impressive.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks had one of the most surprising and active offseasons of any team in baseball.  Will it lead to greater success in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Predictions: 5th in NL West

2015 Result: 79-83, 3rd in NL West

The D-Backs were one of the quiet surprises of 2015.  They kept their record right around .500 thanks to strong hitting from AJ Pollock and perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt.  If it is possible for a team to have one of the best players in baseball, over-achieve on expectations, and no one notice, the Diamondbacks pulled it off in 2015.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Arizona shocked the baseball world this offseason.  Nobody saw it coming.  Of course, I am referring to the new Diamondback uniforms.  No, just kidding!  Zack Greinke!!!  Would he sign with the Dodgers?  The Giants?  In about 12 hours, the D-Backs went from being irrelevant in the sweepstakes to signing the prize of the offseason.  They did not stop there either.  If they were getting Greinke, they were going all in.  They traded for starter Shelby Miller, willing to give up their number one draft pick, Dansby Swanson, to get him.  Obviously, the Diamondbacks believe that baseball right now is highly over-valuing prospects.  They were willing to go get their guy, and no one was untouchable.  They then traded for Jean Segura and signed Tyler Clippard to round out the renovation of their team.

Most Important Hitter

Yasmany Tomas

Part of that Shelby Miller deal was also Ender Inciarte, a quality outfielder that gave them good production in 2015.  Then, in the last Spring Training game, AJ Pollock breaks his elbow and might be out for the entire season.  This puts a lot of pressure on a guy like Yasmany Tomas.  Tomas was signed last year as a potential Cuban superstar.  He was productive, but far less than a superstar in his first year in the big leagues.  With no Inciarte and Pollock, they need Tomas to take a huge step forward and help lengthen this lineup that all of a sudden has a few holes.

Most Important Pitcher

Patrick Corbin

The Diamondbacks have a brand new top two of their rotation with Greinke and Miller.  However, the ace of this staff at one point was Patrick Corbin.  He was an All Star in 2013 and poised to progress into a top pitcher in the game.  Then Tommy John surgery before the 2014 season put him out for a year and a half.  He pitched all right in his limited time in 2015, but now he is two years removed from his surgery and should be close to 100% now.  If he is, this rotation can be one of the best in all of baseball.

Player to Watch

Archie Bradley

The Diamondbacks seemed to have sold most of their top prospects over the offseason to improve the team right now, however they had the depth in their system to work with.  They have several player ready to produce now, with several (Brandon Drury, Socrates Brito) making the Opening Day roster.  they also have several pitchers ready to join the rotation behind Greinke, Miller, and Corbin.  Archie Bradley made his big league debut last season with mediocre results, but he should be ready to go as soon as there is a spot for him.  Watch for Bradley and fellow phenom Braden Shipley to make an impact on this team at some point this season.  Both would probably be in the rotation to start the year if it weren't for the active offseason.

2016 Prediction

3rd in NL West

I made this prediction before the Pollock injury, but now I am even more sure of it.  The Diamondbacks are definitely a much better team this year.  They have improved in so many areas.  However, I think it will take a year for them to truly fulfill their potential.  I was really big on the Padres last year, and it blew up in my face.  This is a different situation because I think the D-Backs are committed to this plan long term where the Padres gave up by July.  They will be improved in 2016 and finish over .500, but the top of the division is too hard to crack ... yet.

Fearless Prediction

The Diamondbacks' starting centerfielder on August 1st is not currently on the roster.

It looks like the Diamondbacks did not have much of a contingency plan when AJ Pollock went down the other day.  Their current plan is to move infielder Chris Owings, who hasn't played the outfield since high school, to centerfield.  They also have rookie Socrates Brito that might see some time there, but this looks like a situation the front office will try and remedy in another way after not too much time.  I wonder what it would take for them to bring back Ender Inciarte...

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers were somewhat of a surprise team last year.  Will they be able to continue their success into 2015?

Last Season

82-80, 3rd in NL Central

No one was really expecting much out of the Brewers last year.  Then they went out and had a winning season, finishing behind only the playoff-bound Cardinals and Pirates.  It was definitely an overachieving effort in 2014.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers were almost disturbingly quiet this offseason.  For a team that seemed to be close in 2014, seeking out a few pieces to put them over the edge would have made sense.  The only acquisition made on any front was bringing in slugger Adam Lind to play first base.  On the other hand, they traded ace Yovani Gallardo to the Texas Rangers for prospects.  It almost feels like the Brewers are not quite sure what they want to be; a team of the future or a team of the present.  So instead of deciding, they have stayed in limbo not really committing to either.

Most Important Hitter

Ryan Braun

This is an easy one.  Ryan Braun has been a shell of his former self since his suspension for PEDs.  What was once a perennial MVP candidate has become just another face on his own team.  The emergence of hitters like Carlos Gomez, Khris Davis, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, they have established a solid core to the lineup, but they need their leader.  They need their backbone to really be a force to be reckoned with in the NL Central.  That means Braun has to become the feared hitter he once was and earn back some credibility and respectability to his career.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Garza

In his first year in Milwaukee last year, Matt Garza showed why he has bounced around so much from team to team.  He shows flashes of dominance, but is primarily inconsistent.  The Brewers brought in Garza to be help lead their rotation, but he was out performed by several others on his staff.  If the Brewers are going to have a successful season, Matt Garza needs to be the pitcher he is being paid to be.

Player to Watch

Scooter Gennett

The Brewers have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, with only one prospect cracking MLB.com's Top 100 and none of their top prospects projected to help out the big club for several years still.  This leads to a roster that has no hope of a wild card coming out of nowhere to breathe new life into the club.  With that said, I am focusing here on possibly one of the best young players in the game you haven't heard of.  Scooter Gennett burst onto the scene when he took over as the Brewers' second baseman down the stretch in 2013.  In his first full season last year, he continued to show that he is a top ten player at his position in the league.  Last year, he was second in NL batting average in my ASG-to-ASG rankings, which calculates the end of one year and the start of the next as a complete season's worth of stats.  He struggled a little down the stretch, but look for him to possibly be a surprise All Star selection this year.

Prediction

4th in NL Central

Overall, it appears the Brewers seem to be trending in the wrong direction.  After the surprise start to 2014, something needed to be done to solidify and validate their spot near the top of the division.  Instead, they stayed put and even went backward.  When Adam Lind and a backup shortstop are your only acquisitions, you lose your ace and pitching staff leader, and you don't have any help coming up through the farm system, they might be in for a long season.  I don't see Ryan Braun bouncing back they way they need him to, and I don't see Matt Garza having a dominant season.  They have some great talent, but it is far from coming all together.  They might prove me wrong like they proved everyone wrong last year, but I doubt it.