2021 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

 #22

The Seattle Mariners have gotten the reputation of being one of the biggest newsmakers of the last few offseasons.  This year, they made news for the wrong reasons.  Now they have one of the more exciting young rosters in the league and a front office in turmoil.  How will all the drama affect the on-field production in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#26 - 5th in AL West

MIH - Daniel Vogelbach

MIP - Yusei Kikuchi

PTW - Evan White

FP - The Mariners will not have a single reliever with more than 10 saves.

2020 Results

#19 - 27-33, 3rd in AL West

The Mariners overachieved in the shortened 2020 season, playing meaningful games in the last few weeks as they had a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  They did all this without the help of every player I mentioned in my prediction.  Daniel Vogelbach was DFA'ed early on in the season, Yusei Kikuchi was their worst starting pitcher in terms of ERA+, and Evan White was one of the worst hitters in the league (despite winning a Gold Glove).  The standouts on the season were Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, Gold Glove winner J.P. Crawford, and utilityman Dylan Moore who led the team in WAR.

Additions / Subtractions

In the past few seasons, the Mariners seem to pull off a trade every week over the offseason, but this year was curiously quiet as the roster has now been fully reset.  There were some minor moves made to complement the new young emerging core.  The only adds were on the pitching front with a couple bullpen arms coming in with Ken Giles (who won't pitch till 2022), Rafael Montero, and Keynan Middleton and a couple adds to the rotation with Chris Flexen and a reunion with James Paxton.  The lineup looks exactly the same as it did at the end of last season.  The biggest news of the offseason was the resignation of Team President Kevin Mather after an embarrassing video came to light where he revealed way too much about the behind the scenes workings of the organization and his opinions on the Mariners' stars and top prospects.

Most Important Hitter

Kyle Lewis

In 2020, Kyle Lewis might have been the biggest breakout surprise of the season.  The former Golden Spikes winner in college finally showed why he was a first round pick and a potential face of a franchise.  With all that said, he ended the year in quite a slump.  In a normal season, we would have been able to see if he could come out of that slump or if that slump would have defined his season.  Now we are entering 2021, and the Mariners are counting on Lewis being the superstar he was the first half the 2020 season.  The real answer is we don't know which is the real Kyle Lewis.  Either way, for the Mariners to have success in 2021, Lewis needs to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Justus Sheffield

Another surprise of the 2020 season, Justus Sheffield finally fulfilled some of the promise he showed as a top prospect that was the centerpiece of the package sent to the Mariners by the Yankees in the James Paxton deal.  (On a side note, it is quite ironic that both Paxton and Sheffield are now in the same rotation in Seattle.)  Sheffield had a quiet breakout season and is now going to be counted on as a dependable key piece of their rotation in 2021.  He needs to continue to grow and take steps forward to show that he can be counted on in 2021 and beyond.

Prospect to Watch

Jarred Kelenic

Give the front office some credit!  In 2018, the Mariners were one of the oldest rosters in the league and had one of the worst farm systems.  Now, they are one of the youngest rosters with one of the top farm systems about to make some serious impact at the big league level.  They have 6 players in the top 100 prospects in baseball, along with two in the top 5.  It was hard to choose just one prospect because I see multiple players making their big league debut and having a huge impact in 2021.  Logan Gilbert is a big flamethrower that could easily be the ace of the Mariners' staff by the end of the season.  However, the only real answer here is Jarred Kelenic.  The centerpiece of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade with the Mets, Kelenic has been flying up the prospect lists (now at #4 in baseball) ever since he was drafted and now seems ready to be a star.  He was also one of the primary targets of the Kevin Mather rant, criticizing him for not taking a club-friendly long-term contract and admitting that the Mariners are planning on manipulating his service time.  Even though he has never played over AA ball, he might be starting in leftfield on Opening Day just for the club to save some face and see if his star can truly take off.

2021 Predictions

4th in AL West

This is a hard one to predict.  The Mariners surprised in the short 2020 season, but they also seem content to look towards 2022 as their year to make the big leap into contention.  At the same time, they have a ton of exciting young talent that will be hitting the field every night.  The turmoil in the front office could also unite the young roster or turn them against the organization.  I think they will show flashes of the possible greatness that is to come while uniting together, but ultimately they are going to still be a year away.  It wouldn't surprise me if they end up around a .500 record though.

Fearless Prediction

The Mariners will have four straight Rookies of the Year.

Like I said, the Mariners have a ridiculous farm system filled with talent that will be hitting the big leagues over the next few years.  Kyle Lewis surprised everyone last season by winning Rookie of the Year.  Jarred Kelenic is definitely a favorite to win that award in 2021.  In 2022, the Mariners' next big prospect Julio Rodriguez should be ready to break out.  In 2023, stud infielder Noelvi Marte (who will probably work his way up to a top 10 prospect ranking before he hits the big leagues) will be the next big star.  All of that without even mentioning the pitching studs like Logan Gilbert that could be in the running for the award as well.  So although the team might not be great this season, and the front office might currently be a dumpster fire, it is a pretty exciting time to be a Mariners fan.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

#26

The Seattle Mariners started an epic rebuild in 2019, turning over almost their entire roster with an eye towards the long term future.  Will 2020 already show some results of the roster reset?

2019 Predictions

#20 - 4th in AL West

MIH: Dee Gordon

MIP: Marco Gonzales

PTW: Justus Sheffield

FP: Felix Hernandez will not finish the season on the Mariners roster.

2019 Result

#25 - 68-94 - 5th in AL West

The Mariners had one of the strangest seasons in baseball history in 2019.  They started the season with a ridiculous 13-2 run.  Then they floundered the rest of the way, posting one of the worst records in baseball.  They became the first team in baseball history to be both 10 game above .500 and 10 games below .500 before Memorial Day.  Their roster had a ridiculous amount of turnover throughout the season, with veterans like Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Mike Leake, Anthony Swarzak, and Hunter Strickland getting traded mid-season to contenders.  It was thought that Dee Gordon could be one of those trade candidates, but he couldn't stay healthy enough (or good enough).  Same goes for King Felix, who spent more time on the IL than on the roster in 2019, making my prediction fall flat.  Justus Sheffield was definitely a disappointment as well.  Starting the year with the idea that he would be in the rotation in the first couple months, he instead was demoted to AA and spent most of the season there instead, dropping from a top 100 prospect in baseball to being the 13th best prospect in the Mariners' system.  Marco Gonzales was a bright spot for the Mariners, being one of the most consistent starters in the league and posting a 200 inning season, something only a 15 pitchers did in 2019.  It earned him an offseason extension.  With all this said, the 2019 Mariners season will be remembered for two picture perfect sendoffs to two Mariner legends the bookended the season.  First, there was the official retirement of Ichiro in Tokyo following the Mariners two game opening series there.  Then in September came the last start for Felix Hernandez as a Mariner.  Both moments were unforgettable and exactly what they deserved.

Additions / Subtractions

General Manager Jerry DiPoto has earned a reputation since joining the Mariners as a constant roster adjuster.  He is always wheeling and dealing and reshaping his team.  However, with all the moves during the 2019 offseason and season, it set up for a quiet 2020 offseason.  Some didn't believe he was capable of that, and moves were made, but it did turn out to be relatively uneventful.  Leaving the team via free agency were starters Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc, and King Felix as well as outfielder Domingo Santana.  Starting catcher Omar Narvaez was traded to Milwaukee.  Added to the roster were some veterans in the rotation in Kendall Graveman and Taijuan Walker to hold positions until more of the prospects are ready.  Outside of a few bullpen pieces, that was it.  Like I said, a quiet offseason for DiPoto's Mariners.

Most Important Hitter

Daniel Vogelbach

Last season, the Mariners only had one All Star.  That All Star was DH Daniel Vogelbach, who got off to a great start to the year.  In fact, it was his fast start that allowed the Mariners to trade veterans like Encarnacion and Bruce so early.  However, by the All Star Game, there were already signs of a slump, and the second half of 2019 saw Vogelbach become one of the worst hitters in baseball.  After hitting .310 with 8 home runs in April, he hit only .162 with 6 home runs after the All Star Break.  Last season was one where Vogelbach needed to prove he belongs.  Now, he needs to prove he should be a part of the long term plans of the Mariners.  To do that, with all the talent the Mariners have coming through their system, he needs to find some consistency.

Most Important Pitcher

Yusei Kikuchi

Speaking of showing they belong, Yusei Kikuchi was really the Mariners only big free agent signing in 2019.  The Japanese import was looked at as a potential ace after a successful career across the Pacific.  In his first season of big league baseball, the 28 year old struggled with a 5.46 ERA and an 80 ERA+.  The Mariners picked him up hoping he could anchor the rotation along with Marco for the foreseeable future.  Now, Kikuchi needs to show he can take a leap forward and prove he can be a formidable starter in the big leagues.

Prospect to Watch

Evan White

Through their crazy offseason rebuild in 2019, the Mariners have one of the strongest farm systems in baseball.  Currently, they have 5 players listed in the top 100 prospects in baseball with two in the top 20.  Many of their top prospects are almost ready to burst on the scene with several others already there.  There is a possibility as many as 3 or 4 rookies start Opening Day in Seattle with others coming along mid-season (unless the delay to the start of the season pushes their timeline back a year).  Of this group starting the season in the big leagues, the most exciting is definitely first baseman Evan White.  Ranked #56 in all of baseball, this 23 year old former 1st round pick from 2017 signed a 6 year big league contract with the Mariners this offseason before ever playing a big league game.  That's how much confidence they have in his potential.  At his worst, he is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman as many say he might have been the best defender at any position in all the minor leagues last season.  He can also hit too, as last season he showed some great potential in his approach at the plate.  With the big league contract already in hand, look for White to get every opportunity to learn and develop at the big league level in 2020 while picking it better than anyone around.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL West

There is a lot to be excited about in Seattle and the direction they are heading, but let's not kid ourselves.  2020 is going to be rough.  The M's are only starting one "veteran" on Opening Day and that is 3rd baseman Kyle Seager (thanks to former All Star Mitch Haniger's constant injury issues).  The rest of the team are youngsters trying to prove themselves.  They are exciting youngsters, and the next wave behind them is even more exciting, but that won't bring about success in 2020.  The only reason the Mariners are not lower on my list is the fact that so many of these young prospects are due to hit the big leagues in 2020 and bring a spark and some excitement to the roster throughout the season.

Fearless Prediction

The Mariners will not have a single reliever with more than 10 saves.

The biggest Achilles heel of the Mariners last season, among many things, was their bullpen.  There was a constant revolving door of pitchers as they were constantly trying to find the right combination of rookies and reclamation projects to make a serviceable group.  They never found it.  In that search, they also never found a consistent closer, with 9 different relievers recording a save, and the leader (Roenis Elias who was traded mid-season) only posting 14.  The Mariners are not going to win a whole bunch of games, and with there not being any obvious choice for closer entering the season, look for the load to be shared once again with the reliever that is struggling the least any particular day to get the ball in the 9th.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

#20

The Seattle Mariners followed up an 89 win season in 2018 with a crazy active offseason that reset their roster for the second time in three years, this time aiming for more sustainable success.  Will all these moves lead to similar success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

3rd in AL West

Ichiro will be released by Memorial Day.

2018 Results

89-73, 3rd in AL West

Although the Mariners ended up exactly where I predicted them to be, it says little about the season they had.  For most of 2018, the Mariners looked destined to end their long playoff drought until a tough stretch to end the season, combined with a furious charge by the A's, kept them from the postseason.  Through many ups and downs, including Ichiro only lasting a month (but not leaving the organization) and a half and Robinson Cano getting suspended for steroids, the season had to be considered a success even without the playoff berth.

Additions / Subtractions

General manager Jerry DiPoto can't help but make move after move every offseason.  This winter saw several blockbuster trades that, as he said, "re-imagined" the Mariners roster.  First, catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia were sent to Tampa Bay for centerfielder Mallex Smith.  Then, second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz were sent to the Mets for outfielder Jay Bruce, top prospects Jerred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, and reliever prospect Gerson Bautista.  Then, ace James Paxton was traded to the Yankees for pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson.  Then, shortstop Jean Segura along with relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos was traded to the Phillies for shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford and slugger Carlos Santana.  Then, Carlos Santana was traded to the Indians for slugger Edwin Encarnacion.  Then, reliever Alex Colome was traded to the White Sox for catcher Omar Narvaez.  Then, outfielder Ben Gamel was traded to the Brewers for outfielder Domingo Santana.  Then, Nelson Cruz, Denard Span, Cameron Maybin, Nick Vincent, and Erasmo Ramirez left in free agency.  Coming in through free agency were shortstop Tim Beckham, closer Hunter Strickland, and Japanese ace Yusei Kikuchi.  It is like DiPoto treats the Mariners roster the way I would treat my fantasy roster.

Most Important Hitter

Dee Gordon

One of the bigger acquisitions of last offseason was speedster Dee Gordon.  After an experiment of putting him in centerfield was thwarted by the Cano suspension, he is entering 2019 as the Mariners starting second baseman.  A former batting champion in 2015, Gordon fought through injuries to a disappointing season of just hitting .268 and an ERA+ of 79.  Looking at Gordon's track record, he tends to alternate good seasons and bad seasons.  2015 was good, 2016 was poor.  2017 was good, 2018 was poor.  Now we are in 2019, and the on base machine should be back at it.  If that happens, he will either emerge as a top veteran leader of this club or be the latest to be traded for more prospects.

Most Important Pitcher

Marco Gonzales

One of the biggest developments of the 2018 season was the emergence of Marco Gonzales as the new ace of the Mariners staff, especially once James Paxton was traded.  Marco's season had ups and downs, but when he was on there were few better.  He will end Felix Hernandez's streak of 10 straight Opening Day starts, and no one argues that he hasn't earned it.  He is now a few years removed from Tommy John surgery, with 2018 being his first full season in the big leagues.  He threw 166.2 innings in 2018.  Before that, his high innings count in the big leagues was 40 innings in 2017.  The biggest question for Marco's 2019 season is whether he will continue to progress and grow into the staff ace or if he will break down from too much work.

Prospect to Watch

Justus Sheffield

All those trades made this offseason took the Mariners farm system from being worst in the league to almost hitting the top 10.  The best prospect they received is also the one most likely to have a big impact this season.  Justus Sheffield pitched sparingly for the Yankees last season, mainly providing some depth in the bullpen at the end of the season.  However, look for Sheffield to be a staple of the Mariners rotation by the end of this season and join Marco, Kikuchi, and Wade LeBlanc in the super lefty-heavy rotation.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL West

This team is nowhere near as good as it was last year.  Too many productive veterans were moved for too many unproven prospects.  However, the thought behind the moves seems to have been achieved.  If they win 89 games and can't make the playoffs right now, then there isn't much they can do to get over that hump as things stand today.  So take a step back, and live to fight in 2020 and 2021, when some of the powerhouses (Astros, Yankees, Red Sox) may need to start looking at breaking up their current core due to either age or free agency.  That is when the Mariners are now looking at peaking.  They have a shot to be around .500 this season, but they won't be competing for the playoffs much this season.

Fearless Prediction

Felix Hernandez will not finish the season on the Mariners roster.

The biggest mystery of the Mariners season is what to do with King Felix.  He has been the team's unquestioned ace for over a decade.  However, the last couple season have seen a falloff in production as his workload seems to have caught up with him.  He is entering his age 33 season and the final deal of his 7 year, $175 million deal he signed in 2013.  Everyone keeps waiting for the second stage of his career to start, but it is looking more and more like it will never come.  With the direction this roster is going, I see only two ways this season plays out for Felix: either he plays well enough to get trade value to be moved or he continues his poor play and ends up released.  Either way, as weird as it is to say for the face of this franchise, but it is hard to see a scenario where Felix Hernandez finishes this season on the Mariners roster.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

#8

The Seattle Mariners almost made the playoffs in 2014, then struggled in 2015, then almost made the playoffs in 2016.  Will 2017 continue the trend and be a struggle, or will the M's end the longest playoff drought in baseball?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in AL West

Hisashi Iwakuma makes the All Star Team.

2016 Results

86-76, 2nd in AL West

The Mariners were in the playoff race last season until the last weekend.  This exceeded many people's expectations after the whirlwind offseason they had leading into the 2016 season.  This result seemed even more unlikely after King Felix spent a good portion of the season on the DL.  Hisashi Iwakuma may not have made the All Star Team, but he was the best starter for the M's in 2016.

Additions / Subtractions

Mariners' General Manager Jerry DiPoto followed up one of the busiest offseasons ever in 2016 with one of the busiest offseasons ever in 2017.  He has completely remade the roster again, building a new group around a solid core of stars.  The biggest move of the offseason was trading phenom Taijuan Walker and young starting shortstop Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for established All Star Jean Segura.  Also, gone are Chris Iannetta, Adam Lind, Dae-ho Lee, Nori Aoki, Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez, and Nathan Karns.  Added to the roster are Carlos Ruiz, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Taylor Motter, Drew Smyly, and Yovani Gallardo.  I'm curious to see if this is going to happen every year.

Most Important Hitter

Jean Segura

When a team trades away two future stars for an established player, it proves just how important that player is going to be.  Jean Segura emerged a few years ago for the Brewers.  After a down season or two, he found himself on the D-Backs in 2016, making the All Star Team, leading the NL in hits.  The Mariners brought him in to be a consistent table setter, one thing they have been lacking ever since Ichiro moved on.  Especially with a 3-4-5 of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager, the M's need guys on base when these boppers come to the plate.  Segura needs to continue the production he had in 2016 for the Mariners to be successful in 2017.

Most Important Pitcher

Felix Hernandez

King Felix seemed to be a machine over the last decade.  He was one of the most dominant starters in baseball while making every start.  Last season, all that ended.  Felix had his highest ERA since 2007, and his least innings pitched since 2005 (his first season in the league).  Many people are counting Felix out, saying he is done being dominant.  The Mariners are counting on 2016 being an anomaly, and 2017 will be a return to dominance for the King.  If the Mariners are going to be successful this season, Felix needs to be the King.

Player to Watch

Mitch Haniger

When the Mariners traded for Jean Segura and gave up both Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte, some said they overpaid for the shortstop.  However, others said that this would not be remembered for these three players, but for Mitch Haniger.  Haniger was one of the forgotten prospects that are always thrown into trades like this, however he went out this Spring and won the starting job in rightfield on Opening Day.  The Mariners think they have found a star in Haniger that could exceed the stardom of all three known names in this deal.

2017 Prediction

3rd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The streak will end in 2017!  The Mariners have been so close several times since bringing in Robinson Cano.  With all the moves that have been made, the M's have built around their core of Cano/Cruz/Seager/Felix and found players that will complement them and their strengths.  Edwin Diaz has emerged as an electric closer that will anchor the bullpen.  With all the moves DiPoto made, the Mariners also have a lot of depth to protect from injuries.  I see the Mariners finishing in third in the division, but beating the Rangers in the one game Wild Card round.  Their run may end in the ALDS, but making the playoffs will be a huge step moving forward for the Mariners.

Fearless Prediction

Scott Servais will win AL Manager of the Year.

Ending the longest playoff drought in the league is reason enough to win Manager of the Year.  Add to that the fact that Scott Servais had his first season managing at any level last season, and taking his team to the playoffs will be that much more impressive.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners greatly underwhelmed on high expectations in 2015 that led to a complete overhaul on the field, in the dugout, and in the front office.  Will all the changes made lead to more success for the M's in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALCS

2015 Result: 76-86, 4th in AL West

Many people were picking the Mariners to finally make a World Series in 2015.  A number of injuries and disappointing seasons led to an all-around disappointing season.  The question was did they disappoint in 2015 or over-perform in 2014 so much that it led to unrealistic expectations?  Either way, 2015 did not go as planned and led to a mid-season firing of their general manager.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Mariners were the most active team in baseball this offseason.  This all started right at the end of the 2015 season when Jerry DiPoto was hired as the new general manager.  Next came a series of moves that changed almost half of the Mariners' 40 man roster.  Out went players like Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and almost the entire bullpen.  In came Nori Aoki, Leonys Martin, Adam Lind, Chris Iannetta, Steve Cishek, Joaquin Benoit, Wade Miley, and Nate Karns.  None of them are blockbuster moves, but the combination of all of them make a major impact.  The other big move was replacing manager Lloyd McClendon with former big leaguer and rookie manager Scott Servais.  In fact, the only coach kept from the year before was Mariner legend Edgar Martinez as hitting coach.  It was an overhaul rarely seen in baseball.

Most Important Hitter

Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano had one of his worst seasons as a pro in 2015.  He started off the season injured but tried to play through it, which led to a terrible start.  He ended the season much closer to what we have come to expect from Cano, but the overall totals were not that impressive.  With Cano coming into the season healthy, he needs to get back to the production that made him one of the best players in baseball.  If he doesn't, the Mariners are not going anywhere in the foreseeable future.

Most Important Pitcher

Taijuan Walker

It wasn't too long ago that Taijuan Walker was considered one of the best prospects in baseball.  He has now had a couple seasons in the big leagues, but his production has yet to scratch his potential.  He is only entering his age 23 season, but this is a big year for Walker.  He needs to take a big step forward in becoming the superstar many think he can be.  If he does find his groove, him and King Felix could be one of the more formidable top two in any rotation in the league.

Player to Watch

Dae-Ho Lee

The Mariners had a huge wave of prospects come up in the last few seasons.  Some worked out, some didn't, but it left behind a depleted farm system.  Most of the Mariners' top prospects are still several years away.  One rookie projected to make the Opening Day roster is a foreign import, something that has become a Mariner specialty.  Dae-Ho Lee is a 33 year old first baseman from Korea the Mariners signed this offseason.  He is a big dude, standing 6'4" and weighing in at 250 pounds.  He hit 40 home runs last season in Japan, and the Mariners are hoping to see some of that power transfer over to America as he is slated to complete a first base platoon with Adam Lind.

2016 Prediction

3rd in AL West

The Mariners had so many things go wrong last year to lead to their disappointing season.  However, this team is completely unrecognizable from the team that played in September.  Change is exciting, but also uncertain.  They have to play better than they did last year.  Look for some improvement, but a complete rebuild like this takes at least a year to really settle and show its full potential.

Fearless Prediction

Hisashi Iwakuma makes the All Star Team.

Hisashi Iwakuma has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last three or four seasons.  In 2013, he made the All Star Team and was 3rd in Cy Young voting.  A series of injuries marred the last two seasons though.  He was almost signed by the Dodgers this offseason, but a questionable physical forced them to reconsider, leading to a return to Seattle.  If he stays healthy, look for him to be back in the Mid-Summer Classic, completing what could potentially be one of the better top three starters in all of baseball (Felix Hernandez and Taijuan Walker).