2021 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

 #15

The Milwaukee Brewers did not have a stellar run in the shortened 2020 season, making the playoffs despite a 4th place finish in the division.  Now they are looking at bouncing back and returning to the top of the division in 2021.  Do they have the roster to make it there?

2020 Predictions

#12 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Keston Hiura

MIP - Brandon Woodruff

PTW - Drew Rasmussen

2020 Results

#15 - 29-31, 4th in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

In 2020, the Brewers finished outside the top two of the division for the first time since 2016.  Only thanks to the expanded playoffs did they make it into the tournament, losing right away to the eventual champion Dodgers.  The majority of their lineup underwhelmed, which has always been the strength of the team.  The bullpen continued to be a strength, with Devin Williams winning Rookie of the Year, only giving up one run all season.  With all that said, 2020 is not to be seen as a successful season for Milwaukee after seeing the heights they can reach the past few seasons.

Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers always approach roster construction differently than any other team.  If you ask an average analyst, they would say the Brewers need more pitching.  Instead, they just add to their lineup depth.  After opting out in 2020, centerfielder Lorenzo Cain is back, and he will be moving around some with the signing of Jackie Bradley Jr.  On the infield, the Brewers signed second baseman Kolten Wong, moving Keston Hiura to first base.  So instead of addressing potential needs, they overload at positions of strength.  The only real subtraction is all-time Brewer Ryan Braun, who looking more and more like he will be calling it a career.

Most Important Hitter

Christian Yelich

The Brewers' lineup begins and ends with Christian Yelich.  After an MVP season in 2018 and an MVP runner up season in 2019, Yelich barely had a batting average over .200.  He did have enough production to post an OPS+ over 100 (111), but that was the lowest OPS+ of his career.  If Yelich is back to MVP-caliber production, the rest of the lineup works and becomes more productive.  If Yelich stays at his 2020 production, the Brewers will be looking for everyone else to step up and make up for lost production from their best player.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Hader

More than any other team in baseball, the Brewers refuse to focus on their starting rotation.  They have some quality starters, with Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes coming off strong 2020 seasons.  However, the pitching staff of the Brewers is all about the bullpen, and the anchor of that bullpen is still Josh Hader.  Even with the emergence of Devin Williams last season, Hader is the guy.  As with a lot of elite bullpen arms (especially ones that burst on the scene at a young age), production has a potential to slightly fade as the velocity starts to slow down.  From 2017-2019, Hader was literally unhittable as he earned the reputation as the most electric bullpen arm in all of baseball.  With that said, his ERA has slowly been rising each season, reaching a career high 3.79 in 2020.  If the Brewers' bullpen is going to remain elite and the anchor of the pitching staff, Hader needs to reverse this trend and get back to the freak of years past.  If he struggles, he won't even be the closer for very long.

Prospect to Watch

Mario Feliciano

The Brewers have a pretty lackluster farm system, only boasting two Top 100 Prospects and neither are close to the big leagues.  Unless a random arm is going to come up and contribute out of the bullpen, Mario Feliciano might have the best chance of having an impact in 2021.  This 22 year-old catcher is a plus hitter and a solid defender.  The Brewers do have a decent crop of Major League catchers, but you can never have enough catchers, and Feliciano appears to be a future option at the position sooner rather than later.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

As I have said before, this division is wide open among the top four teams.  This could lead to them beating up on each other, which is why I only predict one team will make the playoffs from the NL Central.  It always confuses me how the Brewers have such great success every year, but I think they will show the sluggish season in 2020 was a sign of things to come.  That result might be different if the NL had a DH in 2021, as no NL roster seems more set up for that than the Brewers.  I mean, how do you carry Daniel Vogelbach on your roster if there is no DH???

Fearless Prediction

The Brewers will have no offensive players make the All Star Team.

This is mainly a statement on what kind of season I think Christian Yelich is going to have.  Is he as bad as he was in 2020?  No.  Is he going to get back to MVP level?  I don't think so.  I see him struggling out of the gate again, and although he might turn things around by the end of the season, I think he misses the All Star Game, leading to no offensive players being good enough to make the Mid-Summer Classic.  The pitching on the other hand has the potential to be well represented.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

#26

The Seattle Mariners started an epic rebuild in 2019, turning over almost their entire roster with an eye towards the long term future.  Will 2020 already show some results of the roster reset?

2019 Predictions

#20 - 4th in AL West

MIH: Dee Gordon

MIP: Marco Gonzales

PTW: Justus Sheffield

FP: Felix Hernandez will not finish the season on the Mariners roster.

2019 Result

#25 - 68-94 - 5th in AL West

The Mariners had one of the strangest seasons in baseball history in 2019.  They started the season with a ridiculous 13-2 run.  Then they floundered the rest of the way, posting one of the worst records in baseball.  They became the first team in baseball history to be both 10 game above .500 and 10 games below .500 before Memorial Day.  Their roster had a ridiculous amount of turnover throughout the season, with veterans like Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Mike Leake, Anthony Swarzak, and Hunter Strickland getting traded mid-season to contenders.  It was thought that Dee Gordon could be one of those trade candidates, but he couldn't stay healthy enough (or good enough).  Same goes for King Felix, who spent more time on the IL than on the roster in 2019, making my prediction fall flat.  Justus Sheffield was definitely a disappointment as well.  Starting the year with the idea that he would be in the rotation in the first couple months, he instead was demoted to AA and spent most of the season there instead, dropping from a top 100 prospect in baseball to being the 13th best prospect in the Mariners' system.  Marco Gonzales was a bright spot for the Mariners, being one of the most consistent starters in the league and posting a 200 inning season, something only a 15 pitchers did in 2019.  It earned him an offseason extension.  With all this said, the 2019 Mariners season will be remembered for two picture perfect sendoffs to two Mariner legends the bookended the season.  First, there was the official retirement of Ichiro in Tokyo following the Mariners two game opening series there.  Then in September came the last start for Felix Hernandez as a Mariner.  Both moments were unforgettable and exactly what they deserved.

Additions / Subtractions

General Manager Jerry DiPoto has earned a reputation since joining the Mariners as a constant roster adjuster.  He is always wheeling and dealing and reshaping his team.  However, with all the moves during the 2019 offseason and season, it set up for a quiet 2020 offseason.  Some didn't believe he was capable of that, and moves were made, but it did turn out to be relatively uneventful.  Leaving the team via free agency were starters Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc, and King Felix as well as outfielder Domingo Santana.  Starting catcher Omar Narvaez was traded to Milwaukee.  Added to the roster were some veterans in the rotation in Kendall Graveman and Taijuan Walker to hold positions until more of the prospects are ready.  Outside of a few bullpen pieces, that was it.  Like I said, a quiet offseason for DiPoto's Mariners.

Most Important Hitter

Daniel Vogelbach

Last season, the Mariners only had one All Star.  That All Star was DH Daniel Vogelbach, who got off to a great start to the year.  In fact, it was his fast start that allowed the Mariners to trade veterans like Encarnacion and Bruce so early.  However, by the All Star Game, there were already signs of a slump, and the second half of 2019 saw Vogelbach become one of the worst hitters in baseball.  After hitting .310 with 8 home runs in April, he hit only .162 with 6 home runs after the All Star Break.  Last season was one where Vogelbach needed to prove he belongs.  Now, he needs to prove he should be a part of the long term plans of the Mariners.  To do that, with all the talent the Mariners have coming through their system, he needs to find some consistency.

Most Important Pitcher

Yusei Kikuchi

Speaking of showing they belong, Yusei Kikuchi was really the Mariners only big free agent signing in 2019.  The Japanese import was looked at as a potential ace after a successful career across the Pacific.  In his first season of big league baseball, the 28 year old struggled with a 5.46 ERA and an 80 ERA+.  The Mariners picked him up hoping he could anchor the rotation along with Marco for the foreseeable future.  Now, Kikuchi needs to show he can take a leap forward and prove he can be a formidable starter in the big leagues.

Prospect to Watch

Evan White

Through their crazy offseason rebuild in 2019, the Mariners have one of the strongest farm systems in baseball.  Currently, they have 5 players listed in the top 100 prospects in baseball with two in the top 20.  Many of their top prospects are almost ready to burst on the scene with several others already there.  There is a possibility as many as 3 or 4 rookies start Opening Day in Seattle with others coming along mid-season (unless the delay to the start of the season pushes their timeline back a year).  Of this group starting the season in the big leagues, the most exciting is definitely first baseman Evan White.  Ranked #56 in all of baseball, this 23 year old former 1st round pick from 2017 signed a 6 year big league contract with the Mariners this offseason before ever playing a big league game.  That's how much confidence they have in his potential.  At his worst, he is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman as many say he might have been the best defender at any position in all the minor leagues last season.  He can also hit too, as last season he showed some great potential in his approach at the plate.  With the big league contract already in hand, look for White to get every opportunity to learn and develop at the big league level in 2020 while picking it better than anyone around.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL West

There is a lot to be excited about in Seattle and the direction they are heading, but let's not kid ourselves.  2020 is going to be rough.  The M's are only starting one "veteran" on Opening Day and that is 3rd baseman Kyle Seager (thanks to former All Star Mitch Haniger's constant injury issues).  The rest of the team are youngsters trying to prove themselves.  They are exciting youngsters, and the next wave behind them is even more exciting, but that won't bring about success in 2020.  The only reason the Mariners are not lower on my list is the fact that so many of these young prospects are due to hit the big leagues in 2020 and bring a spark and some excitement to the roster throughout the season.

Fearless Prediction

The Mariners will not have a single reliever with more than 10 saves.

The biggest Achilles heel of the Mariners last season, among many things, was their bullpen.  There was a constant revolving door of pitchers as they were constantly trying to find the right combination of rookies and reclamation projects to make a serviceable group.  They never found it.  In that search, they also never found a consistent closer, with 9 different relievers recording a save, and the leader (Roenis Elias who was traded mid-season) only posting 14.  The Mariners are not going to win a whole bunch of games, and with there not being any obvious choice for closer entering the season, look for the load to be shared once again with the reliever that is struggling the least any particular day to get the ball in the 9th.