2023 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #6

The San Diego Padres continued to spend more than almost any other team this offseason.  Will they get over the hump and win a World Series in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#6 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Yu Darvish

PTW - C.J. Abrams

2022 Results

#4 - 89-73, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLCS

Highest WAR (Position) - Manny Machado

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Yu Darvish

The 2022 San Diego Padres could be summed up with three players: one was one of the best in the league, one never showed up, and one showed up mid-season.  First, Manny Machado may have had his best season ever, earning a runner up finish in the MVP race.  Second, Fernando Tatis Jr. got hurt before the season started in a motorcycle accident, and right before he was ready to return, got suspended for PED's, potentially tainting an entire career of one of baseball's brightest young stars.  Third, the Padres showed they are willing to continue to double down by trading for one of the best hitters in the game Juan Soto at the Trade Deadline.  They rode the talent on the field to the NLCS, but no one was beating the Phillies in their run to the NL pennant.

Additions / Subtractions

Just when you think the Padres may have reached their limit in payroll, they doubled down again.  They seemed to be in on every big name free agent, finally landing shortstop Xander Bogaerts on (another) huge deal.  They signed Manny Machado to an extension that was (another) huge deal.  They solidified the rotation with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.  Then, as if they didn't have enough already, they went to the veteran market and picked up Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.  There were a couple subtractions, like Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, Sean Manaea, and Mike Clevinger, but I think the additions outweigh the subtractions.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the most fascinating storylines in all of baseball entering the 2023 season is what will happen with Fernando Tatis Jr.  The last time we saw him, he was an MVP candidate, leading the league in home runs, and earning every bit of his newly signed 14 year megadeal.  However, even then his durability and overall health were being questioned as he was starting to see some time in the outfield to protect the wear and tear on his body.  Then he gets hurt making a dumb decision.  Then he compounds that by getting caught for PED's.  Then the Padres go out and sign another shortstop to an 11 year deal.  Now Tatis will have to wait another month before he finally is allowed back from his suspension, and he essentially has lost his job.  He finished 2021 as possibly the face of baseball.  Now he is being looked at as, at best, the 4th best player on his team.  What will he be this year?  How much did PED's possibly impact his past performance, or was it another dumb decision during his injury recovery?  Who is this player???  He's only 23 year old too!  Does he go back to his MVP-caliber 2021 form?  If he does, the Padres will be special.  Is he put off by losing his job, switching positions, and still sitting out?  If so, he could be a negative influence in that locker room that destroys one of the most talented teams in the league.  No one knows!  Watching what happens with Tatis will be one of the biggest storylines of the entire season.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres will roll out possibly the best lineup in all of baseball in 2023, however their pitching staff has a lot more questions in it.  One of the players that could be an X-factor for the whole pitching staff in Blake Snell.  In 2018, Snell was on another planet for the Rays.  He had a 217 ERA+ that year and won the Cy Young.  Since then, he hasn't even sniffed that level of production.  His best season since was the COVID-shortened 2020 season with a 127 ERA+.  Last season was next best at 111 ERA+, but he only threw 128 innings.  Now he is entering his third season with the Padres, which is also his contract year at age 30.  If he can return to some level of dominance, it not only will solve a lot of possible questions with the Padres pitching staff, but it will also earn him one last big payday heading into free agency next offseason.

Prospect to Watch

Jay Groome

With all the big spending and blockbuster trades the Padres have done the last few seasons, it has completely depleted their farm system.  Ranked in the bottom third of MLB farm systems, the Padres only tout 2 prospects in the Top 100, with neither ready to contribute this season.  In fact, only 2 prospects in their top 10 even have a chance to play in the big leagues this season.  The more intriguing of these prospects in their 9th best prospect, Jay Groome.  When drafted in 2016, this 6'6" 262lb left-handed pitcher was thought to be one of the top prospects in the draft.  Then injuries and missed time completely derailed his development to the point that the Padres acquired him as an afterthought last season from the Red Sox in the Eric Hosmer trade.  He stuff isn't elite, but he still has pretty good makeup.  Look for him to get a chance to earn a rotation spot if the injury bug hits the Padres this season.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

It might be a hot take to have the Padres this low, but there are just way too many elite National League teams.  With that said, the Padres are probably the most talented team in the league.  They also feel like they could completely implode on themselves.  They do have one of the best managers around in Bob Melvin, and they have basically a player/coach at this point in Nelson Cruz.  So hopefully that stabilizes some of the volatility.  There are still a lot of questions with their rotation.  When they win the division and go on to win the World Series, this will look like a really bad take, but it's what I'm going with right now.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Padres superstars will not be on their roster at the start of the 2024 season.

The spending has to stop at some point, right?  Right?!?  They have paid out huge money to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yu Darvish.  However, they have yet to lock up Juan Soto beyond this season.  He might need the biggest contract of all of them.  I could see the Padres let him walk in free agency ... or maybe they sign him and trade Tatis ... or maybe they trade Soto mid-season to get something for him ... or maybe they just double down one more time and sign Soto and just keep it all.  They have to run out of money at some point though ... I think.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

 #15

The Milwaukee Brewers did not have a stellar run in the shortened 2020 season, making the playoffs despite a 4th place finish in the division.  Now they are looking at bouncing back and returning to the top of the division in 2021.  Do they have the roster to make it there?

2020 Predictions

#12 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Keston Hiura

MIP - Brandon Woodruff

PTW - Drew Rasmussen

2020 Results

#15 - 29-31, 4th in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

In 2020, the Brewers finished outside the top two of the division for the first time since 2016.  Only thanks to the expanded playoffs did they make it into the tournament, losing right away to the eventual champion Dodgers.  The majority of their lineup underwhelmed, which has always been the strength of the team.  The bullpen continued to be a strength, with Devin Williams winning Rookie of the Year, only giving up one run all season.  With all that said, 2020 is not to be seen as a successful season for Milwaukee after seeing the heights they can reach the past few seasons.

Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers always approach roster construction differently than any other team.  If you ask an average analyst, they would say the Brewers need more pitching.  Instead, they just add to their lineup depth.  After opting out in 2020, centerfielder Lorenzo Cain is back, and he will be moving around some with the signing of Jackie Bradley Jr.  On the infield, the Brewers signed second baseman Kolten Wong, moving Keston Hiura to first base.  So instead of addressing potential needs, they overload at positions of strength.  The only real subtraction is all-time Brewer Ryan Braun, who looking more and more like he will be calling it a career.

Most Important Hitter

Christian Yelich

The Brewers' lineup begins and ends with Christian Yelich.  After an MVP season in 2018 and an MVP runner up season in 2019, Yelich barely had a batting average over .200.  He did have enough production to post an OPS+ over 100 (111), but that was the lowest OPS+ of his career.  If Yelich is back to MVP-caliber production, the rest of the lineup works and becomes more productive.  If Yelich stays at his 2020 production, the Brewers will be looking for everyone else to step up and make up for lost production from their best player.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Hader

More than any other team in baseball, the Brewers refuse to focus on their starting rotation.  They have some quality starters, with Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes coming off strong 2020 seasons.  However, the pitching staff of the Brewers is all about the bullpen, and the anchor of that bullpen is still Josh Hader.  Even with the emergence of Devin Williams last season, Hader is the guy.  As with a lot of elite bullpen arms (especially ones that burst on the scene at a young age), production has a potential to slightly fade as the velocity starts to slow down.  From 2017-2019, Hader was literally unhittable as he earned the reputation as the most electric bullpen arm in all of baseball.  With that said, his ERA has slowly been rising each season, reaching a career high 3.79 in 2020.  If the Brewers' bullpen is going to remain elite and the anchor of the pitching staff, Hader needs to reverse this trend and get back to the freak of years past.  If he struggles, he won't even be the closer for very long.

Prospect to Watch

Mario Feliciano

The Brewers have a pretty lackluster farm system, only boasting two Top 100 Prospects and neither are close to the big leagues.  Unless a random arm is going to come up and contribute out of the bullpen, Mario Feliciano might have the best chance of having an impact in 2021.  This 22 year-old catcher is a plus hitter and a solid defender.  The Brewers do have a decent crop of Major League catchers, but you can never have enough catchers, and Feliciano appears to be a future option at the position sooner rather than later.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

As I have said before, this division is wide open among the top four teams.  This could lead to them beating up on each other, which is why I only predict one team will make the playoffs from the NL Central.  It always confuses me how the Brewers have such great success every year, but I think they will show the sluggish season in 2020 was a sign of things to come.  That result might be different if the NL had a DH in 2021, as no NL roster seems more set up for that than the Brewers.  I mean, how do you carry Daniel Vogelbach on your roster if there is no DH???

Fearless Prediction

The Brewers will have no offensive players make the All Star Team.

This is mainly a statement on what kind of season I think Christian Yelich is going to have.  Is he as bad as he was in 2020?  No.  Is he going to get back to MVP level?  I don't think so.  I see him struggling out of the gate again, and although he might turn things around by the end of the season, I think he misses the All Star Game, leading to no offensive players being good enough to make the Mid-Summer Classic.  The pitching on the other hand has the potential to be well represented.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

#9

The Milwaukee Brewers came one game short of the World Series in 2018.  Will 2019 bring about an NL pennant for the Brew Crew?

2018 Predictions

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose Wild Card Game

The Brewers will trade for an ace by the All Star Game.

2018 Results

96-67, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLCS

The Brewers exceeded most people's expectations in 2018 by making their way all the way to Game 7 of the NLCS before coming up just short.  They took a very unconventional approach to winning, leaning on a stellar bullpen in a way no one has before, especially in the playoffs.  They did trade for Gio Gonzalez at some point, but they viewed it more as depth than an ace.  Their ace was reliever Josh Hader.  Another surprise from 2018 was the MVP season from newly acquired Christian Yelich.  They knew he was good, but I don't know if anyone knew he would be that good.  I claimed their most important hitter was going to be Eric Thames, who found himself out of a job after the emergence of All Star Jesus Aguilar.  Few things went the way they were expected for the Brewers in 2018, but they all worked to their benefit.

Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers are entering 2019 with a very similar roster to what they ended 2018 with.  The biggest acquisition over the offseason was catcher Yasmani Grandal.  They re-signed Mike Moustakas, which was curious considering it kept them with the dilemma of having two third baseman.  The Brewers never seemed to mind overloading one position though.  With that in mind, another move they made was trading away Domingo Santana, an outfielder that hit 30 home runs in 2017 but was out of a job in 2018 after they acquired Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich.  He was sent to the Mariners for versitile speedster Ben Gamel.  They brought in lefty specialist Alex Claudio to help round out their bullpen, but that was about it.

Most Important Hitter

Christian Yelich

Especially in September, the Brewers rode the bat of Christian Yelich all the way to the division title and Yelich's MVP.  With the division actually getting more competitive in 2019, they will rely on Yelich to continue to emerge as one of the elite hitters in the entire league.  Looking at Yelich's career trajectory, and the fact that he is only entering his age 27 season, there is every indication that his success should continue.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Hader

This is an easy one.  Josh Hader was by far their most important pitcher in 2018 as he was a freak on the mound all season.  His performance in the playoffs was out of this world as he seemed to pitch 2 or 3 innings every game.  It was a huge workload for the 24 year old, putting in 81 innings last season before the playoffs.  Hader seems to have everything aligned for a letdown season.  The Brewers cannot afford that, considering the injuries to closers Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel they are starting the season with.  They need Hader to be as good, if not better, than last season with everything considered.  Looking at all the indicators, that is going to be hard to do.

Prospect to Watch

Keston Hiura

Many were surprised the Brewers brought back Mike Moustakas because it meant that either Moustakas or Shaw would have to play second base.  This move would block their top prospect, Keston Hiura, from having a spot in the majors.  Huira, a 22 year old second baseman picked in the first round of the 2017 draft, probably won't be ready to start the season in the big leagues but will be ready to some point this season.  His debut might need to wait until 2020 with the current roster, but if someone gets injured or if someone struggles, look for Hiura to come up and provide a spark in Milwaukee.

2019 Prediction

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

Duplicating the success of 2018 is hard for any team to do, especially a team like the Brewers that leans so heavily on the bullpen, the most volatile part of a roster.  They have neglected to upgrade their rotation again.  I think they are good enough to compete all season and even make the playoffs, but they are not going to be able to do what they did last year.

Fearless Prediction

Craig Kimbrel will be a Brewer in 2019.

One of the craziest storylines entering the 2019 season is the fact that we have two All Stars still unsigned and without a team.  Starter Dallas Keuchel and closer Craig Kimbrel are still without a job.  Both of these players would be huge helps for the Brewers.  Knowing how the Brewers operate, and especially how they may be seriously lacking in the bullpen if their injuries are long term, Kimbrel to the Brewers just makes too much sense to not happen.