2024 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

 #26

The Milwaukee Brewers lost their manager and two aces this off-season, but they have a youth movement ready to become the new core for their next championship run.  Will the kids bring wins in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#22 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Christian Yelich

MIP - Devin Williams

PTW - Sal Frelick

FP - Corbin Burnes will be traded in the next 12 months.

2023 Results

#14 - 92-70, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLWC

Highest WAR (Position) - William Contreras

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Corbin Burnes

The Brewers took advantage of an unpredictable division and rose to the top behind their strong pitching.  Although they didn't go far in the playoffs, the fact that they got there made the season a success.  From last year's article, "Could they win 90 games?  Maybe.  Could they lose 90?  Probably not, but maybe."  I skewed closer to the 90 losses than the 90 wins.  I missed on that prediction, however...

Additions / Subtractions

... my Fearless Prediction was right!  Corbin Burnes got his huge haul from the Orioles, and the Brewers couldn't say no.  Then, their other ace, Brandon Woodruff, was re-signed even though he probably won't pitch in 2024 with an injury.  Those are big losses, however the biggest loss may have been manager Craig Counsell leaving Milwaukee to manage the rival Cubs.  The only significant additions are first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher/hitter Gary Sanchez.

Most Important Hitter

Willy Adames

One of the biggest surprises of the 2021 season was the emergence of shortstop Willy Adames after his trade to Milwaukee from Tampa.  In under 100 games with the Brewers, he garnered MVP votes.  However, since that breakout season his production has been in a slow decline.  Topping out with a 137 OPS+ in 2021, since he has earned a 110 OPS+ in 2022 and 95 in 2023, making him a below average hitter last season.  The power was still there, hitting 24 homers, but the average and on base dipped.  If Adames can return to his All Star level of 2021, he will stabilize this young lineup ... or turn into a more valuable trade chip.

Most Important Pitcher

Freddy Peralta

Just like Adames, Freddy Peralta peaked in his young career in 2021 and has come back down to earth some over the last two seasons.  Now, with no Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta is going to be looked at as the ace.  After a solid, but not elite, 2023 season, Peralta gets the promotion, and he will show this season just how ready he is for it.

Prospect to Watch

Jackson Chourio

The Brewers took this step back heading into 2024 because their strong farm system is ready to provide their big league roster with a load of talent.  Sporting the 3rd best farm system in baseball, the Brewers feature 5 Top 100 prospects, however the prize of their system will be their Opening Day center fielder.  Jackson Chourio is a 20 year old phenom currently ranked as the 2nd best prospect in all of baseball.  He has all the tools and all the potential.  The Brewers believe in him so much that they gave him an 8 year, $82 million extension before ever playing an inning in the big leagues, a record contract for someone in his shoes.  He's going to be a star.  The question is if his star shines right out of the gate at age 20, or will he take some time to settle into the big leagues.  If he takes off, Chourio could become a must see star this season.  Add him to last year's top rook Sal Frelick and former MVP Christian Yelich, and the Brewers outfield could be fun to watch.

2024 Prediction

5th in NL Central

I think this is the first team that has a realistic shot at the postseason.  That's how deep the league is this year.  The Brewers are one of those teams that always seem to win and compete.  With that said, I think they have just lost a little too much this off-season to stay at the top of the Central.  There's a lot of interesting teams in this division that could easily fly or fail.  If they all fly, one of the reasons will be because the Brewers struggle.  Their lineup looks strong, but I can't see the pitching hold up.  You can't lose both aces off your staff and not replace them.  That's a rule.

Fearless Prediction

Jackson Chourio will spend time in AAA and still finish in the top 3 in Rookie of the Year.

It's not unprecedented that a young phenom has struggles when they first reach the big leagues.  Even Mike Trout struggled so much he was sent back down to the minors for some time.  Jackson Chourio is 20 years old.  Not everyone becomes an instant star at that age like Julio Rodriguez.  I see Chourio needing a reset within the first month or two after some initial struggles, but he will be ready once he's back.  Talk about a roller coaster season!

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

 #22

The Milwaukee Brewers have been consistently one of the top teams in the National League for most of the last decade.  Will this consistency continue in 2023, or are they due for a down year?

2022 Predictions

#5 - 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

MIH - Christian Yelich

MIP - Corbin Burnes

PTW - Ethan Small

2022 Results

#13 - 86-76, 2nd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Willy Adames

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Corbin Burnes

For the first time since 2017, the Brewers missed the postseason even though they had an 86 win season and finished 2nd in their division.  While still in contention, they traded away their All Star closer (Josh Hader) at the Trade Deadline which made many people scratch their heads.  So they fell short of the playoffs while trying to ride the line of both selling and contending.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason continued the trend of trying to sell while still contending.  They let outfielder Andrew McCutchen, catcher Omar Narvaez, and reliever Taylor Rogers leave in free agency.  They traded away second baseman Kolten Wong and outfielder Hunter Renfroe.  At the same time, they brought in All Star catcher William Contreras, infielder Abraham Toro, and former All Star outfielder Jesse Winker.

Most Important Hitter

Christian Yelich

Their best hitter the last few seasons may be Willy Adames, but the success of the Brewers ay be tied most directly to Christian Yelich.  Only entering his age 31 season, Yelich feels more like an old man as it's already his 11th season in the big leagues.  With the 2023 season, he will have been a Brewer longer than a Marlin!  After an MVP in 2018 and an MVP runner-up in 2019, injuries quickly seemed to drop him from one of the best players in the game to barely above average.  At his peak in 2018 and 2019, Yelich posted a 164 and 179 OPS+ in those two years.  Since then, his best season at the plate was 2022 with a 111 OPS+, with only a .252 average and 14 homers (he topped out in 2019 at .329 and 44 homers).  At least he played a full season, appearing in 154 games.  The Brewers don't need Yelich to be an MVP again (although they wouldn't argue with it).  They do need him to get back to borderline All Star level if they want their offense to work.

Most Important Pitcher

Devin Williams

The Brewers have one of the stronger one/two punches at the top of their rotation in all of baseball with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, however none of that matters unless they have someone that can close out the game.  Enter Devin Williams.  With the trade of Josh Hader last season and the departure of Taylor Rogers in free agency, Williams is now the undeniable closer for the Brewers.  Although he has been dominant ever since he won Rookie of the Year in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he has never had to be the closer, and those final three outs of the game are always different.  Also, they are now missing someone at the level of Devin Williams to work the 8th inning as they didn't really bring in any other elite relievers.  So more potentially will be needed from Williams than ever as he may be the only reliever they can turn to in crunch time.

Prospect to Watch

Sal Frelick

The strength of the Brewers farm system is the outfield, with the top 4 or 5 players in their system being outfielders (3 of which in the Top 100).  The most intriguing prospect that could impact the 2023 season is Sal Frelick.  He may not be a big guy (5'10" 182lbs.), but the kid knows how to hit.  Ranked at #30 on the top prospects in baseball, Frelick projects to be a gap-hitting leadoff hitter that can wreak havoc on the bases.  He is currently opening eyes on team Italy in the World Baseball Classic.  He could definitely be an exciting player if the opportunity presents itself in 2023.

2023 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

The Milwaukee Brewers might be the biggest casualty of the new balanced schedule in 2023.  The NL Central has been one of, if not the, worst division in baseball over the last few seasons.  Now they will have less games against the likes of the Reds and the Pirates, which means their record will likely not be as strong as it has been the last few seasons.  This may seem a little low for a roster as talented as the Brewers.  The problem is there are about 8-10 teams this year that are in the middle of the pack.  Could they win 90 games?  Maybe.  Could they lose 90 games?  Probably not, but maybe.  With all the changes the Brewers have seen over the last few seasons, and the balanced schedule, I could see them easily being at the bottom of this middle pack.

Fearless Prediction

Corbin Burnes will be traded in the next 12 months.

Corbin Burnes has been one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball over the last few seasons, so much so that MLB Network named him the top starting pitcher in all of baseball this offseason.  He is also slowly creeping towards free agency and a huge payday.  Several teams asked about him this offseason, but the Brewers weren't ready to consider.  If 2023 is as average as I am predicting, maybe the Brewers start listening as early as the Trade Deadline.  Every contending team will be interested if one of the best pitchers in baseball suddenly becomes available.  If Burnes is on the trade block, someone will give a huge haul to get him.  The Brewers won't be able to say no.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

 #15

The Milwaukee Brewers did not have a stellar run in the shortened 2020 season, making the playoffs despite a 4th place finish in the division.  Now they are looking at bouncing back and returning to the top of the division in 2021.  Do they have the roster to make it there?

2020 Predictions

#12 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Keston Hiura

MIP - Brandon Woodruff

PTW - Drew Rasmussen

2020 Results

#15 - 29-31, 4th in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

In 2020, the Brewers finished outside the top two of the division for the first time since 2016.  Only thanks to the expanded playoffs did they make it into the tournament, losing right away to the eventual champion Dodgers.  The majority of their lineup underwhelmed, which has always been the strength of the team.  The bullpen continued to be a strength, with Devin Williams winning Rookie of the Year, only giving up one run all season.  With all that said, 2020 is not to be seen as a successful season for Milwaukee after seeing the heights they can reach the past few seasons.

Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers always approach roster construction differently than any other team.  If you ask an average analyst, they would say the Brewers need more pitching.  Instead, they just add to their lineup depth.  After opting out in 2020, centerfielder Lorenzo Cain is back, and he will be moving around some with the signing of Jackie Bradley Jr.  On the infield, the Brewers signed second baseman Kolten Wong, moving Keston Hiura to first base.  So instead of addressing potential needs, they overload at positions of strength.  The only real subtraction is all-time Brewer Ryan Braun, who looking more and more like he will be calling it a career.

Most Important Hitter

Christian Yelich

The Brewers' lineup begins and ends with Christian Yelich.  After an MVP season in 2018 and an MVP runner up season in 2019, Yelich barely had a batting average over .200.  He did have enough production to post an OPS+ over 100 (111), but that was the lowest OPS+ of his career.  If Yelich is back to MVP-caliber production, the rest of the lineup works and becomes more productive.  If Yelich stays at his 2020 production, the Brewers will be looking for everyone else to step up and make up for lost production from their best player.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Hader

More than any other team in baseball, the Brewers refuse to focus on their starting rotation.  They have some quality starters, with Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes coming off strong 2020 seasons.  However, the pitching staff of the Brewers is all about the bullpen, and the anchor of that bullpen is still Josh Hader.  Even with the emergence of Devin Williams last season, Hader is the guy.  As with a lot of elite bullpen arms (especially ones that burst on the scene at a young age), production has a potential to slightly fade as the velocity starts to slow down.  From 2017-2019, Hader was literally unhittable as he earned the reputation as the most electric bullpen arm in all of baseball.  With that said, his ERA has slowly been rising each season, reaching a career high 3.79 in 2020.  If the Brewers' bullpen is going to remain elite and the anchor of the pitching staff, Hader needs to reverse this trend and get back to the freak of years past.  If he struggles, he won't even be the closer for very long.

Prospect to Watch

Mario Feliciano

The Brewers have a pretty lackluster farm system, only boasting two Top 100 Prospects and neither are close to the big leagues.  Unless a random arm is going to come up and contribute out of the bullpen, Mario Feliciano might have the best chance of having an impact in 2021.  This 22 year-old catcher is a plus hitter and a solid defender.  The Brewers do have a decent crop of Major League catchers, but you can never have enough catchers, and Feliciano appears to be a future option at the position sooner rather than later.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

As I have said before, this division is wide open among the top four teams.  This could lead to them beating up on each other, which is why I only predict one team will make the playoffs from the NL Central.  It always confuses me how the Brewers have such great success every year, but I think they will show the sluggish season in 2020 was a sign of things to come.  That result might be different if the NL had a DH in 2021, as no NL roster seems more set up for that than the Brewers.  I mean, how do you carry Daniel Vogelbach on your roster if there is no DH???

Fearless Prediction

The Brewers will have no offensive players make the All Star Team.

This is mainly a statement on what kind of season I think Christian Yelich is going to have.  Is he as bad as he was in 2020?  No.  Is he going to get back to MVP level?  I don't think so.  I see him struggling out of the gate again, and although he might turn things around by the end of the season, I think he misses the All Star Game, leading to no offensive players being good enough to make the Mid-Summer Classic.  The pitching on the other hand has the potential to be well represented.