#22
The Milwaukee Brewers have been consistently one of the top teams in the National League for most of the last decade. Will this consistency continue in 2023, or are they due for a down year?
#5 - 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS
MIH - Christian Yelich
MIP - Corbin Burnes
PTW - Ethan Small
2022 Results
#13 - 86-76, 2nd in NL Central
Highest WAR (Position) - Willy Adames
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Corbin Burnes
For the first time since 2017, the Brewers missed the postseason even though they had an 86 win season and finished 2nd in their division. While still in contention, they traded away their All Star closer (Josh Hader) at the Trade Deadline which made many people scratch their heads. So they fell short of the playoffs while trying to ride the line of both selling and contending.
Additions / Subtractions
This offseason continued the trend of trying to sell while still contending. They let outfielder Andrew McCutchen, catcher Omar Narvaez, and reliever Taylor Rogers leave in free agency. They traded away second baseman Kolten Wong and outfielder Hunter Renfroe. At the same time, they brought in All Star catcher William Contreras, infielder Abraham Toro, and former All Star outfielder Jesse Winker.
Most Important Hitter
Christian Yelich
Their best hitter the last few seasons may be Willy Adames, but the success of the Brewers ay be tied most directly to Christian Yelich. Only entering his age 31 season, Yelich feels more like an old man as it's already his 11th season in the big leagues. With the 2023 season, he will have been a Brewer longer than a Marlin! After an MVP in 2018 and an MVP runner-up in 2019, injuries quickly seemed to drop him from one of the best players in the game to barely above average. At his peak in 2018 and 2019, Yelich posted a 164 and 179 OPS+ in those two years. Since then, his best season at the plate was 2022 with a 111 OPS+, with only a .252 average and 14 homers (he topped out in 2019 at .329 and 44 homers). At least he played a full season, appearing in 154 games. The Brewers don't need Yelich to be an MVP again (although they wouldn't argue with it). They do need him to get back to borderline All Star level if they want their offense to work.
Most Important Pitcher
Devin Williams
The Brewers have one of the stronger one/two punches at the top of their rotation in all of baseball with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, however none of that matters unless they have someone that can close out the game. Enter Devin Williams. With the trade of Josh Hader last season and the departure of Taylor Rogers in free agency, Williams is now the undeniable closer for the Brewers. Although he has been dominant ever since he won Rookie of the Year in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he has never had to be the closer, and those final three outs of the game are always different. Also, they are now missing someone at the level of Devin Williams to work the 8th inning as they didn't really bring in any other elite relievers. So more potentially will be needed from Williams than ever as he may be the only reliever they can turn to in crunch time.
Prospect to Watch
Sal Frelick
The strength of the Brewers farm system is the outfield, with the top 4 or 5 players in their system being outfielders (3 of which in the Top 100). The most intriguing prospect that could impact the 2023 season is Sal Frelick. He may not be a big guy (5'10" 182lbs.), but the kid knows how to hit. Ranked at #30 on the top prospects in baseball, Frelick projects to be a gap-hitting leadoff hitter that can wreak havoc on the bases. He is currently opening eyes on team Italy in the World Baseball Classic. He could definitely be an exciting player if the opportunity presents itself in 2023.
2023 Prediction
3rd in NL Central
The Milwaukee Brewers might be the biggest casualty of the new balanced schedule in 2023. The NL Central has been one of, if not the, worst division in baseball over the last few seasons. Now they will have less games against the likes of the Reds and the Pirates, which means their record will likely not be as strong as it has been the last few seasons. This may seem a little low for a roster as talented as the Brewers. The problem is there are about 8-10 teams this year that are in the middle of the pack. Could they win 90 games? Maybe. Could they lose 90 games? Probably not, but maybe. With all the changes the Brewers have seen over the last few seasons, and the balanced schedule, I could see them easily being at the bottom of this middle pack.
Fearless Prediction
Corbin Burnes will be traded in the next 12 months.
Corbin Burnes has been one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball over the last few seasons, so much so that MLB Network named him the top starting pitcher in all of baseball this offseason. He is also slowly creeping towards free agency and a huge payday. Several teams asked about him this offseason, but the Brewers weren't ready to consider. If 2023 is as average as I am predicting, maybe the Brewers start listening as early as the Trade Deadline. Every contending team will be interested if one of the best pitchers in baseball suddenly becomes available. If Burnes is on the trade block, someone will give a huge haul to get him. The Brewers won't be able to say no.
