2018 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

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The Cincinnati Reds definitely seem like a team that is headed in the right direction.  Will 2018 be the year they start competing again?

2017 Predictions

5th in NL Central

Zack Cozart will be traded before the All Star Break.

2017 Results

68-94, 5th in NL Central

For the past few seasons, the Reds have been trying to hit the reset button on their franchise, but they seem reluctant to completely blow up their roster.  A few years ago, they waited too long to finally trade Brandon Phillips, and they chose to hold on to Zack Cozart last season instead of trade him at the Deadline.  The positive for the Reds last year was a very productive lineup.  They had six players hit over 20 home runs.  The pitching was pretty horrible, earning a team ERA of 5.17 throughout the season.  When their second best starter in terms of WAR was a guy that only started four games at the end of the season, there is a bit of a problem.

Additions / Subtractions

Instead of trading Cozart mid-season last season, they let him walk in free agency and sign with the Angels.  They really didn't make any additions to their roster beyond welcoming back guys like Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan from injury.

Most Important Hitter

Billy Hamilton

The Reds have some prolific power hitters.  From an established star like Joey Votto to emerging stars like Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Eugenio Suarez, the Reds know how to put the ball out of the park.  What would help is if they had more guys on base when those balls leave the park.  Billy Hamilton is well known as one of the fastest players in the game and one of the best defensive centerfielders as well.  So when he ends 2017 with a 1.0 WAR, it's obvious his bat is a liability.  He finished the season with a 66 OPS+ (league average is 100).  If Billy Hamilton can round out his game and hit .280 instead of under .250, then the Reds' lineup will be that much more potent.

Most Important Pitcher

Homer Bailey

The Reds threw some money at Homer Bailey back in 2014, thinking they had one of the more talented young arms in the game.  However, after signing his 6 year $105 million contract, injuries completely derailed his career.  After breaking 200 innings in 2012 and 2013, he only reached 145 innings in 2014, which has been the only time he has broken 100 innings under the new contract.  2017 saw Bailey pitch enough to show he might finally be close to fully healthy.  The first step to the Reds' pitching staff having more success this season is Homer Bailey starting to earn some of the money the Reds have been paying him the last few years.

Prospect to Watch

Tyler Mahle

That starting pitcher I mentioned that was the Reds' second best starter in terms of WAR last season?  That was Tyler Mahle.  He was called up late in the season, started 4 games, and had some success, posting a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings.  One of the best prospects in the Reds' system and only 23 years old, Mahle should play a big role in the Reds' rotation this season and beyond.

2018 Prediction

5th in NL Central

As great as the Reds' offense is, the pitching is that bad.  The Reds will be able to outscore some teams, but that is not sustainable.  They need to consider signing one of the veteran starting pitchers that are still available to stabilize their staff.  They do have some good years in front of them, but they need to wait for a few more of their arms to develop in the minors.  By the time flamethrower and 2017 top draft pick Hunter Greene is ready in a few years, the Reds will be ready to compete.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Bryan Price's last season at the Reds' manager.

I honestly don't understand how he still has his job.  Bryan Price's background is as a pitching coach, yet he has had zero success developing any of the Reds' pitchers so far.  This will be his 5th season at the helm for the Reds, and in that time the pitching has been the team's weakness.  You would think a pitching coach would improve the pitching a little bit?  I predicted this firing 2 years ago, and yet he is still around after two more terrible years.  He has to be nearing the end of his leash, right?

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds finished 2015 in the cellar for the first time since 1983.  Will 2016 bring about a different result?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in NL Central

2015 Result: 64-98, 5th in NL Central

No one in 2015 had the loss column hit triple digits, however the Reds are one of several teams that sure came close.  The Reds got caught with an aging core and not enough talent ready to play to replenish the declining talent.  Even if they did, they had too much money committed to their roster that they couldn't really get rid of many of their problems.  Needless to say, their season end up as a disaster with few prospects to be better soon.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Starting at the 2015 Trade Deadline, the Reds started unloading some of their better talent to get back prospects that could bolster their farm system.  Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake was traded last season, then the offseason saw Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman moving on.  Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce were in serious trade talk as well, but the deals fell through.  They have started to show that their strategy is a franchise reset.

Most Important Hitter

Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce is one of the best hitters the Reds have left, however there is a different reason he is their most important hitter this year.  Bruce is the best trade chip the Reds still have.  If the season heads south quick, which a lot of people expect it to, the question stops being if Bruce gets traded, and switches to when Bruce gets traded.  How well the Reds orchestrate a trade of Jay Bruce will help determine how good they will be in the future and how long it takes them to get there.

Most Important Pitcher

Homer Bailey

The Reds are pretty shaky all around their lineup.  One of the biggest question marks entering the season for them is how good Homer Bailey will be.  Bailey missed most of last season with Tommy John surgery.  He might be ready in time for the season to start.  If this doesn't happen, or he struggles when he comes back, look for Homer Bailey's season to become an audition for all teams looking to trade for an established starter at the Trade Deadline.

Player to Watch

Jesse Winker

A team like the Cincinnati Reds usually has a lot of opportunities to get their prospects time in the big leagues.  As they are attempting to build from the ground up, their top prospects will slowly but surely work their way in.  Jesse Winker is their top prospect right now.  This left-handed hitting outfielder could be a call-up if a Jay Bruce trade ever gets finalized.

2016 Prediction

4th in NL Central

It looks like the Reds have a little farther to fall before they can bounce back.  The only reason they are not in last place is because of a team in their division that is even worse off (mainly, because they don't have Joey Votto).  The Reds will be in the bottom five of the league, especially considering how good the top three in the division are.  Hopefully, it can start to turn around soon, but not in 2016.

Fearless Prediction

Manager Bryan Price will be fired before the All Star Break.

When you have a team like the Reds, it is hard to determine whether the poor play on the field is a result of the aging roster or a bad manager.  Either way, the manager ends up getting blamed at some point.  Bryan Price barely made it to 2016 after their terrible 2015.  Pitching coaches rarely make good managers, and I don't think Price is an exception to that rule.