2019 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

#19

The Cincinnati Reds have been building up a strong farm system over the last couple years, but their on-field production has been lacking.  Will bringing in some veteran leadership finally bring about the change in the Reds' fortunes they have been waiting for?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL Central

This will be Bryan Price's last season as the Reds' manager.

2018 Results

67-95, 5th in NL Central

Last season was Bryan Price's fifth season as the Reds manager, and only lasted 18 games.  Apparently, losing over 90 games every season finally wasn't good enough.  The Reds, and especially their pitching staff, have been underwhelming all throughout his tenure.  It was long past time to move on.  There were some breakout performances from players like Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez.

Additions / Subtractions

Rarely do you see a team with a streak of losing like this become buyers in the offseason.  However, that is exactly what happened with the Reds and their new manager David Bell.  They made several blockbuster trades to make them interesting.  They acquired Tanner Roark from the Nationals and Sonny Gray from the Yankees.  Then, in what might be the biggest surprise of the offseason, the Reds sent Homer Bailey (who was quickly released) to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood.  The only other notable subtractions were speedster Billy Hamilton and starter Matt Harvey.

Most Important Hitter

Yasiel Puig

The Reds made some big moves in the offseason to help change their culture.  So they picked up one of the most polarizing players in the big leagues over the last decade.  When Yasiel Puig is on, he is one of the best in the league.  When Puig is off, he is bad and a distraction.  If nothing else, Puig is exciting.  He is instantly the most interesting player on the Reds and might be able to anchor their lineup with Joey Votto,  It all depends on what Puig shows up.  Maybe the change of scenery will be good for him.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

For a struggling pitching staff, a proven commodity is exactly what they need.  Sonny Gray has had a bit of a rocky road over the last year or so.  He started 2017 in Oakland before being traded mid-season to the Yankees.  In 2018, he struggled greatly in the Bronx with one of his worst seasons as a professional.  The Reds acquired him with the idea that a change of scenery, and a reunion with his college pitching coach, will bring him back to his All Star level.  If he does, he may stabilize this entire pitching staff.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Senzel

The second overall pick in the 2016 Draft, Nick Senzel is the 6th best prospect in the league and about ready to break out when given the opportunity.  He tore up AAA in 2018 with a .310 average.  The only problem is his two positions, second and third base, currently have two of the Reds best hitters in Gennett and Suarez.  This season, either one of them will be moved or Senzel will be sen t off to bring back more veterans that can help now.

2019 Prediction

4th in NL Central

All the moves the Reds made this offseason definitely have them moving in the right direction for the first time in awhile.  The problem is their division might have two or three playoff teams in it with possibly every team finishing above .500.  They will compete, which is more than could be said of them for the last five years.  However, their division will keep them away from the playoffs.  They will still be a fun team to watch all season though.

Fearless Prediction

Scooter Gennett will be traded mid-season.

This team is headed in the right direction for sure, but it doesn't mean they can't continue to seel off some pieces and rebuild.  With Nick Senzel waiting in the wings, Scooter has a chance to be expendable and bring back an impressive haul.  Look for him to be available and possibly moved by the Deadline.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

#28

The Cincinnati Reds definitely seem like a team that is headed in the right direction.  Will 2018 be the year they start competing again?

2017 Predictions

5th in NL Central

Zack Cozart will be traded before the All Star Break.

2017 Results

68-94, 5th in NL Central

For the past few seasons, the Reds have been trying to hit the reset button on their franchise, but they seem reluctant to completely blow up their roster.  A few years ago, they waited too long to finally trade Brandon Phillips, and they chose to hold on to Zack Cozart last season instead of trade him at the Deadline.  The positive for the Reds last year was a very productive lineup.  They had six players hit over 20 home runs.  The pitching was pretty horrible, earning a team ERA of 5.17 throughout the season.  When their second best starter in terms of WAR was a guy that only started four games at the end of the season, there is a bit of a problem.

Additions / Subtractions

Instead of trading Cozart mid-season last season, they let him walk in free agency and sign with the Angels.  They really didn't make any additions to their roster beyond welcoming back guys like Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan from injury.

Most Important Hitter

Billy Hamilton

The Reds have some prolific power hitters.  From an established star like Joey Votto to emerging stars like Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Eugenio Suarez, the Reds know how to put the ball out of the park.  What would help is if they had more guys on base when those balls leave the park.  Billy Hamilton is well known as one of the fastest players in the game and one of the best defensive centerfielders as well.  So when he ends 2017 with a 1.0 WAR, it's obvious his bat is a liability.  He finished the season with a 66 OPS+ (league average is 100).  If Billy Hamilton can round out his game and hit .280 instead of under .250, then the Reds' lineup will be that much more potent.

Most Important Pitcher

Homer Bailey

The Reds threw some money at Homer Bailey back in 2014, thinking they had one of the more talented young arms in the game.  However, after signing his 6 year $105 million contract, injuries completely derailed his career.  After breaking 200 innings in 2012 and 2013, he only reached 145 innings in 2014, which has been the only time he has broken 100 innings under the new contract.  2017 saw Bailey pitch enough to show he might finally be close to fully healthy.  The first step to the Reds' pitching staff having more success this season is Homer Bailey starting to earn some of the money the Reds have been paying him the last few years.

Prospect to Watch

Tyler Mahle

That starting pitcher I mentioned that was the Reds' second best starter in terms of WAR last season?  That was Tyler Mahle.  He was called up late in the season, started 4 games, and had some success, posting a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings.  One of the best prospects in the Reds' system and only 23 years old, Mahle should play a big role in the Reds' rotation this season and beyond.

2018 Prediction

5th in NL Central

As great as the Reds' offense is, the pitching is that bad.  The Reds will be able to outscore some teams, but that is not sustainable.  They need to consider signing one of the veteran starting pitchers that are still available to stabilize their staff.  They do have some good years in front of them, but they need to wait for a few more of their arms to develop in the minors.  By the time flamethrower and 2017 top draft pick Hunter Greene is ready in a few years, the Reds will be ready to compete.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Bryan Price's last season at the Reds' manager.

I honestly don't understand how he still has his job.  Bryan Price's background is as a pitching coach, yet he has had zero success developing any of the Reds' pitchers so far.  This will be his 5th season at the helm for the Reds, and in that time the pitching has been the team's weakness.  You would think a pitching coach would improve the pitching a little bit?  I predicted this firing 2 years ago, and yet he is still around after two more terrible years.  He has to be nearing the end of his leash, right?