2023 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

 #28

The Cincinnati Reds have been selling off big league talent over the last few years and building up a strong farm system in the process.  Will 2023 be the year the big league roster starts to see some impact from all this young talent?

2022 Predictions

#26 - 4th in NL Central

MIH - Jonathan India

MIP - Luis Castillo

PTW - Hunter Greene

2022 Results

#27 - 62-100 - 4th in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Brandon Drury

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Luis Castillo

The Reds went from over .500 in 2021 to a 100 loss season in 2022.  They saw their ace traded mid-season (Luis Castillo), as well as their best hitter (Brandon Drury).  The offense struggled to score, but their young pitching showed some real bright spots, with phenom starters Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo having strong rookie seasons.  Also, rookie Alexis Diaz emerged as their closer of the future.  So amid a disappointing season, there was some hope.

Additions / Subtractions

As with many teams in rebuild mode, the offseason was about seeing if any of their veterans had value on the trade market while bringing in other veterans to be placeholders until the kids are ready.  Much of the Reds' work was done mid-season in shedding big league talent, but the offseason also saw the departure of Mike Moustakas, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Mike Minor.  The new crop of veterans include starter Luke Weaver, shortstop Kevin Newman, and corner outfielder / first baseman Wil Myers.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Senzel

Not every prospect works out, and so far in his big league career, Nick Senzel is one of those prospects that just hasn't.  The former #2 overall pick is now entering his age 28 season and 5th full season in the big leagues.  So far, his rookie season (2019) was the most successful, where he posted a measly 87 OPS+ with 12 home runs.  In 2022, he had a 64 OPS+ with only 5 home runs and 25 RBI's in 110 games.  The good part about being on a rebuilding team is you are given more opportunities for playing time and development.  Senzel is once again slated to be the Reds' everyday centerfielder, but with the youth movement moving through the minors, Senzel needs to start showing some progress, or he will no longer have a job in Cincinnati.

Most Important Pitcher

Hunter Greene

No one meant more to the future success of the Reds in 2022 than Hunter Greene.  The flame-throwing phenom had a solid rookie campaign in his age 22 season, showing why everyone had been waiting for his debut since he was picked 2nd overall in the 2017 draft.  Now it's his time to take the next step and show he is ready to be the new ace of the Reds.  If Greene can solidify himself at the top of the Reds' rotation, then the Reds will be ready to contend sooner than anticipated.  It would also mean they have a true superstar on their hands too.

Prospect to Watch

Elly De La Cruz

The Reds have a strong farm system, boasting 4 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  Their system has a unique makeup though, with 7 of their top 8 prospects playing either shortstop or third base.  However, the class of the group, and the player most ready to make a splash in 2023, is Elly De La Cruz.  This 21 year old shortstop is ranked as the 10th prospect in baseball, and it's easy to see why.  At 6'5", he's a towering presence with special speed and some real pop in his bat.  In 2022, between Single-A and Double-A, De La Cruz hit 28 home runs and had 47 steals.  I don't think the Reds can keep him out of Cincinnati much longer, and he has an outside shot at making the Opening Day roster.

2023 Prediction

5th in NL Central

The Reds are definitely headed in the right direction, but they are not ready to turn that corner yet.  As some of these top prospects like Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, and Brandon Williamson join the big leagues throughout the year, the team will improve and become more and more fun to watch.  Look for next year to be a big jump year in Cincinnati, but for now, the record won't be great.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Joey Votto's last season.

It feels like it is time.  Joey Votto has been the face of the Reds almost since the moment he arrived in 2007.  He's a 6 time All Star, won a Gold Glove and an MVP.  He has a chance at being a Hall of Famer.  He's also entering his age 39 season, last year was the worst year of his career, and he's in the last year of his 10 year megadeal (which is the only reason he hasn't been traded like the rest of the team's veteran assets).  He has a team option for next year, but there's no way it gets picked up.  The production doesn't warrant a $20mil+ contract for his age 40 season.  I could see Votto opting to retire than wear another jersey besides the Reds.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

 #19

The Cincinnati Reds went for it in 2020, but ended up losing in the first round of the playoffs.  Will 2021 be another step towards contention, or will they be taking a step back?

2020 Predictions

#7 - 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

MIH - Eugenio Suarez

MIP - Raisel Iglesias

PTW - Tony Santillan

2020 Results

#13 - 31-29, 2nd NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

The Reds looked like they had the roster in 2020 to make a deep run.  Their lineup had some pop, and their rotation was elite, led by Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer.  Thanks to the expanded playoffs, they found themselves in the tournament, but didn't score a run in their Wild Card sweep by the Braves.

Additions / Subtractions

After one year of going for it, the Reds seemed to partially give up on their run before it ever started.  First, Trevor Bauer left in free agency (and the Reds never even attempted to bring him back).  Then they traded closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels (they signed Sean Doolittle to fill the role).  Shortstop Freddy Galvis signed in Baltimore in free agency (and wasn't replaced by another veteran).  The offseason was also mired in rumors of whether aces Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray would also be traded.  For now, they are still on the roster showing the Reds weren't quite willing to sell the whole farm.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Senzel

One of the top Reds prospects from a couple years ago was Nick Senzel.  Now he is the starting centerfielder, but he has yet to fulfill any of the promise of his prospect status.  Right now, Senzel has a career .245 average and an 83 OPS+ in two seasons.  Hardly the production you expect out of a top prospect.  He needs to take a step or two forward to make this lineup truly work.

Most Important Pitcher

Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo is on his way to being one of the elite pitchers in the league.  As of right now, he is still a Red and the most impactful pitcher on their staff.  With Trevor Bauer's departure, the spotlight will now be on him to lead the staff.  This could be a breakout season for Castillo.  The question is if that production will be putting the Reds in contention or if he will be traded to help someone else.

Prospect to Watch

Jose Garcia

The Reds have four prospects in baseball's Top 100.  Jose Garcia is not one of them, but he has a golden opportunity that could lead to some great success for the 22 year old prospect.  The Reds lost their shortstop in free agency and never replaced him.  That forced them to find an internal solution, and Jose Garcia appears to be that solution to start the season.  Ranked the 6th best prospect in the Reds system, this Cuban defector shows a lot of promise to be an everyday shortstop in the league for quite some time.

2021 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

Like I said when I previewed the Cubs, the NL Central was wide open in 2020 and is wide open this season too even though it looks like a couple teams are heading in the wrong direction.  The Reds had one of the more curious offseasons.  It's like they wanted to do a full reset but couldn't find the right price for some of their more valuable assets.  So I guess they are forced to compete this year.  I see them having a little less turmoil and a little more depth than the Cubs which puts them in 3rd in the division.

Fearless Prediction

Over half of the Reds' Opening Day lineup will no longer be on the roster Opening Day 2022.

Like I said, the Reds tried to reset this offseason and couldn't.  Look for them to try and start unloading talent, maybe not mid-season but definitely next offseason.  Either that, or they reload since they still have a decent core.  I really don't understand what they are trying to do.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

#19

The Cincinnati Reds have been building up a strong farm system over the last couple years, but their on-field production has been lacking.  Will bringing in some veteran leadership finally bring about the change in the Reds' fortunes they have been waiting for?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL Central

This will be Bryan Price's last season as the Reds' manager.

2018 Results

67-95, 5th in NL Central

Last season was Bryan Price's fifth season as the Reds manager, and only lasted 18 games.  Apparently, losing over 90 games every season finally wasn't good enough.  The Reds, and especially their pitching staff, have been underwhelming all throughout his tenure.  It was long past time to move on.  There were some breakout performances from players like Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez.

Additions / Subtractions

Rarely do you see a team with a streak of losing like this become buyers in the offseason.  However, that is exactly what happened with the Reds and their new manager David Bell.  They made several blockbuster trades to make them interesting.  They acquired Tanner Roark from the Nationals and Sonny Gray from the Yankees.  Then, in what might be the biggest surprise of the offseason, the Reds sent Homer Bailey (who was quickly released) to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood.  The only other notable subtractions were speedster Billy Hamilton and starter Matt Harvey.

Most Important Hitter

Yasiel Puig

The Reds made some big moves in the offseason to help change their culture.  So they picked up one of the most polarizing players in the big leagues over the last decade.  When Yasiel Puig is on, he is one of the best in the league.  When Puig is off, he is bad and a distraction.  If nothing else, Puig is exciting.  He is instantly the most interesting player on the Reds and might be able to anchor their lineup with Joey Votto,  It all depends on what Puig shows up.  Maybe the change of scenery will be good for him.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

For a struggling pitching staff, a proven commodity is exactly what they need.  Sonny Gray has had a bit of a rocky road over the last year or so.  He started 2017 in Oakland before being traded mid-season to the Yankees.  In 2018, he struggled greatly in the Bronx with one of his worst seasons as a professional.  The Reds acquired him with the idea that a change of scenery, and a reunion with his college pitching coach, will bring him back to his All Star level.  If he does, he may stabilize this entire pitching staff.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Senzel

The second overall pick in the 2016 Draft, Nick Senzel is the 6th best prospect in the league and about ready to break out when given the opportunity.  He tore up AAA in 2018 with a .310 average.  The only problem is his two positions, second and third base, currently have two of the Reds best hitters in Gennett and Suarez.  This season, either one of them will be moved or Senzel will be sen t off to bring back more veterans that can help now.

2019 Prediction

4th in NL Central

All the moves the Reds made this offseason definitely have them moving in the right direction for the first time in awhile.  The problem is their division might have two or three playoff teams in it with possibly every team finishing above .500.  They will compete, which is more than could be said of them for the last five years.  However, their division will keep them away from the playoffs.  They will still be a fun team to watch all season though.

Fearless Prediction

Scooter Gennett will be traded mid-season.

This team is headed in the right direction for sure, but it doesn't mean they can't continue to seel off some pieces and rebuild.  With Nick Senzel waiting in the wings, Scooter has a chance to be expendable and bring back an impressive haul.  Look for him to be available and possibly moved by the Deadline.