2018 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

#28

The Cincinnati Reds definitely seem like a team that is headed in the right direction.  Will 2018 be the year they start competing again?

2017 Predictions

5th in NL Central

Zack Cozart will be traded before the All Star Break.

2017 Results

68-94, 5th in NL Central

For the past few seasons, the Reds have been trying to hit the reset button on their franchise, but they seem reluctant to completely blow up their roster.  A few years ago, they waited too long to finally trade Brandon Phillips, and they chose to hold on to Zack Cozart last season instead of trade him at the Deadline.  The positive for the Reds last year was a very productive lineup.  They had six players hit over 20 home runs.  The pitching was pretty horrible, earning a team ERA of 5.17 throughout the season.  When their second best starter in terms of WAR was a guy that only started four games at the end of the season, there is a bit of a problem.

Additions / Subtractions

Instead of trading Cozart mid-season last season, they let him walk in free agency and sign with the Angels.  They really didn't make any additions to their roster beyond welcoming back guys like Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan from injury.

Most Important Hitter

Billy Hamilton

The Reds have some prolific power hitters.  From an established star like Joey Votto to emerging stars like Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Eugenio Suarez, the Reds know how to put the ball out of the park.  What would help is if they had more guys on base when those balls leave the park.  Billy Hamilton is well known as one of the fastest players in the game and one of the best defensive centerfielders as well.  So when he ends 2017 with a 1.0 WAR, it's obvious his bat is a liability.  He finished the season with a 66 OPS+ (league average is 100).  If Billy Hamilton can round out his game and hit .280 instead of under .250, then the Reds' lineup will be that much more potent.

Most Important Pitcher

Homer Bailey

The Reds threw some money at Homer Bailey back in 2014, thinking they had one of the more talented young arms in the game.  However, after signing his 6 year $105 million contract, injuries completely derailed his career.  After breaking 200 innings in 2012 and 2013, he only reached 145 innings in 2014, which has been the only time he has broken 100 innings under the new contract.  2017 saw Bailey pitch enough to show he might finally be close to fully healthy.  The first step to the Reds' pitching staff having more success this season is Homer Bailey starting to earn some of the money the Reds have been paying him the last few years.

Prospect to Watch

Tyler Mahle

That starting pitcher I mentioned that was the Reds' second best starter in terms of WAR last season?  That was Tyler Mahle.  He was called up late in the season, started 4 games, and had some success, posting a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings.  One of the best prospects in the Reds' system and only 23 years old, Mahle should play a big role in the Reds' rotation this season and beyond.

2018 Prediction

5th in NL Central

As great as the Reds' offense is, the pitching is that bad.  The Reds will be able to outscore some teams, but that is not sustainable.  They need to consider signing one of the veteran starting pitchers that are still available to stabilize their staff.  They do have some good years in front of them, but they need to wait for a few more of their arms to develop in the minors.  By the time flamethrower and 2017 top draft pick Hunter Greene is ready in a few years, the Reds will be ready to compete.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Bryan Price's last season at the Reds' manager.

I honestly don't understand how he still has his job.  Bryan Price's background is as a pitching coach, yet he has had zero success developing any of the Reds' pitchers so far.  This will be his 5th season at the helm for the Reds, and in that time the pitching has been the team's weakness.  You would think a pitching coach would improve the pitching a little bit?  I predicted this firing 2 years ago, and yet he is still around after two more terrible years.  He has to be nearing the end of his leash, right?

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

#30

It's that time of year again!  Time to look at the upcoming baseball season.  This year, as I go through each team and their outlook for this season, I am going through by my own pre-season power rankings.  We start with the end with one of the few teams that know they have no shot entering this season: the Cincinnati Reds.

My 2016 Predictions

4th in NL Central

Manager Bryan Price will be fired before the All Star Break.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in NL Central

Somehow, I gave the Reds too much credit last season.  I knew they weren't going to be good.  I had no idea just how bad they would be.  They were stuck in a weird spot of trying to rebuild while holding onto some franchise favorite veterans.  Finishing in the bottom 5 of the entire league, it's a miracle my Fearless Prediction was wrong!

2017 Additions / Subtractions

At the 2015 Trade Deadline, the Reds finally started the slow rebuild process when they traded Johnny Cueto to the Royals.  Then, in the 2016 offseason, they traded Todd Frazier to the White Sox.  They continued the process at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they traded Jay Bruce to the Mets.  This offseason kept the slow dismantling moving by trading Brandon Phillips to the Braves.  Outside of this and additions of veteran pitchers Scott Feldman and Drew Storen, the Reds were pretty quiet as they allow their young players (Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Mazara) try to establish themselves.

Most Important Hitter

Joey Votto

Last year, I said the Reds' Most Important Hitter was Jay Bruce, not because of what he would contribute to the team, but because of what he would get the team in the trade market.  Joey Votto, one of the only members of the old guard left, could be serving a similar purpose in 2017.  First off, Votto is one of the best hitters in baseball, a fact that has been true for all the 2010's.  He is the Reds best player, which is why he is still around.  The Reds need to make a decision on what they want to do with Votto.  Do they keep him to mentor their young crop of hitters, possibly dooming him to play for mediocre teams for the rest of his career?  Or do they trade him and his big contract to continue to add to their young talent base?  This question will likely be answered in 2017.  If they still have him at the end of the season, he is staying put.  If they don't, he will bring a healthy batch of prospects.

Most Important Pitcher

Brandon Finnegan

If the Reds want to win anytime soon, some of their young talent needs to start emerging.  Brandon Finnegan was the centerpiece in the package the Reds got back from the Royals for Johnny Cueto in 2015.  In 2016, Finnegan had an average season in his first full year in the big leagues.  Now, it is time for him to take a step forward and emerge as a possible ace moving forward.  If he does that, the Reds might not be as terrible as you think.

Player to Watch

Amir Garrett

A rebuilding team like this is usually a revolving door of rookies throughout the season.  One of the more intriguing prospects bound to make his debut this year is left-handed flamethrower Amir Garrett.  This 24 year old is still a little rough around the edges, but he has the potential of being a front-line starter for years to come.

2017 Prediction

5th in NL Central

Being at the bottom of my Pre-Season Power Rankings, this prediction is fairly anticlimactic.  The Reds have some potential, with guys like Duvall and Schebler flashing some greatness last year.  However, they still have such a long way to go, mainly because they refuse to fully commit to the rebuild.  Why are guys like Votto, Zack Cozart, and Devin Mesoraco still on the roster?  There is nothing exciting about a team that is going nowhere.  That's where the Reds are.  Either sell the farm and rebuild or reload and try to win with what you have.  Being caught in the middle never works.

Fearless Prediction

Zack Cozart will be traded before the All Star Break.

I really thought about going with the same prediction as last year, but I thought that might be too obvious.  Of all the veterans still on the roster, Zack Cozart seems to be the logical next choice to be traded.  Jose Peraza, slated to be the starting 2nd baseman, is the shortstop of the future.  He can't move over till Cozart is gone though.  Look for a team that has a key injury to an infielder to make a move for Cozart, who still has something left to prove in this league.