2017 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

#1

The Boston Red Sox saw the retirement of one of their all-time greats in David Ortiz in 2016.  Will 2017 be a let down year, or will it see the emergence of the next generation of all-time Red Sox greats?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in AL East

David Price will spend time on the DL in 2016.

2016 Results

93-69, 1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

The Red Sox had a great season in 2016.  After a disappointing finish in the cellar in 2015, the team bounced back, led by a farewell campaign from David Ortiz that Hollywood couldn't have written.  Led by their 40 year old slugger, and some young new stars, the Red Sox won the division.  Once in the playoffs, they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Cleveland Indians.  As for my Fearless Prediction, it appeared to just be premature.  I said the workload of David Price was going to catch up with him.  After leading the league in innings pitched in 2016, Price is starting the 2017 season on the DL which might result in Tommy John surgery.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest subtraction is obviously the loss of David Ortiz.  Despite what many people hoped, he did indeed retire.  He has been replaced in the lineup by Mitch Moreland, a defense-first first baseman that allows Hanley Ramirez to inherit the DH spot.  Otherwise, the lineup didn't change much.  As far as their pitching goes, the Red Sox once again won the lottery.  After signing the biggest fish last season in David Price, they traded for the biggest fish on the market this year in Chris Sale.  They gave up a good portion of their farm system to get him, but get him they did.

Most Important Hitter

Pablo Sandoval

The success of Pablo Sandoval's season might be more important to Pablo Sandoval than the Red Sox.  After signing a big free agent contract with the Red Sox a few years ago, Pablo Sandoval has been an epic disappointment.  His 2016 season was defined by being overweight, breaking his belt on a swing, and a season-ending injury that dd the Red Sox a favor because now they had an excuse not to play him.  After several attempts to fill the third base hole last season did not work as well as they had hoped, the Red Sox are giving The Artist Formerly Known as Kung Fu Panda one more chance to show why they paid him so much money.  If this season goes well, Sandoval will be a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.  If this season goes poorly, not only will the Red Sox move on, but Sandoval's career will most likely be over.

Most Important Pitcher

Rick Porcello

Entering the 2016 season, everyone was talking about how the Red Sox signed David Price.  However, it was Rick Porcello that got the headlines by the end of the season, winning the AL Cy Young.  Now the Red Sox have added Chris Sale to the top of the rotation, giving them three established aces.  At least that is the hope.  More times than not, when a top-notch pitcher changes teams the first season is a bit of a letdown.  At the same time, David Price is on the shelf with no guarantee that he pitches at all this season.  Rick Porcello is going to be counted on as the stabilizing force in that rotation to hold it together no matter what happens with Sale and Price.  For someone who just had his first elite season, that might be too lofty a task for Porcello.

Player to Watch

Andrew Benintendi

This is an easy one.  The only reason he still qualifies as a rookie was an injury last season that kept his game total down below the limit.  However, Benintendi burst on the scene in 2016, showing he was ready to break out and be a star.  This season, he is the Opening Day rightfielder for the Red Sox.  He will not only be a fun rookie to watch, but he is being counted on to join their young core of Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley.  Add Benintendi to that ... talk about the new "Killer B's!"

2017 Prediction

1st in AL East, win the World Series

This team is loaded.  Their lineup is possibly the best in the league, led by Mookie Betts, who has the potential to join Mike Trout as the two best players in the league.  Their pitching is elite and deep, even if David Price ends up not pitching this season.  This new core of stars had a taste of the postseason last year, and now they are ready to take it all the way.  If they are able to stay together, this might be the making of a dynasty.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Sale will win the AL Cy Young.  Mookie Betts will win the AL MVP.

Sale's career has been building to this.  He has been on this slow rise to dominance, but has yet to break through as the best pitcher in the league.  I think the biggest reason for this is the fact that he has yet to play on a team good enough to support him.  The White Sox have yet to contend since Sale's career has taken off.  Now he is on one of the most talented rosters in the league.  Combine that with Sale's dominance in the prime of his career, and this could be a special season for Chris Sale.  For Mookie Betts, his career has been building as well.  Last season, he took second in the MVP voting to Mike Trout, however he is close to eclipsing and possibly passing Trout.  Winning Cy Young, MVP, and the World Series is rare, but not a far-fetched prediction considering the circumstance.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

#2

The Washington Nationals have been on the brink of winning a pennant for years now.  Will 2017 finally be the year the franchise makes its first World Series?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL East

Stephen Strasburg will be traded before the end of the season.

2016 Results

95-67, 1st in NL East, lost in NLDS

The Nationals had a better season than I anticipated.  Despite Bryce Harper having a sub-par season compared to his MVP 2015 season, the Nats were able to win the division behind their elite pitching.  The addition of Dusty Baker as manager seemed to have more of an impact than many expected.  With all that said, the Nationals still came up short, not even winning a series in the playoffs before being ousted once again.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I said the team had a choice to make: either sign Strasburg long term or trade him.  I simply chose the wrong option as Strasburg will be a Nat for the foreseeable future.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nationals were active this offseason.  They also made several of the more scrutinized moves of the offseason.  Leaving the team were catcher Wilson Ramos, rented closer Mark Melancon, ad shortstop Danny Espinosa.  The Nats were a leading candidate this offseason for ace Chris Sale.  When they lost the bid to the Red Sox, they immediately turned around and traded multiple top prospects for outfielder Adam Eaton.  Many have argued, although the advanced analytics say Eaton was worth the trade, the Nationals overpaid for him.  Late in free agency, they brought in catcher Matt Wieters to replace the departed Ramos.  The other questionable move involves a move they didn't make.  After losing Melancon to free agency, the Nats left themselves without an elite, or even a proven, closer.  They could have acquired guys like David Robertson from Chicago or Alex Colome from Tampa Bay.  Instead, they chose to fill this role from within, even though they had no one on their roster with big league closing experience.

Most Important Hitter

Adam Eaton

With the amount the Nationals gave up for Adam Eaton, he needs to show that he was worth it.  Eaton is a really good defensive player with a decent bat and a knack for getting on base and causing havoc once he is there.  With the sluggers the Nats have in the middle of their order, they felt their urgent need was a table setter to get on base in front of guys like Harper, Murphy, and Zimmerman.  Not only is Eaton being counted on to be that guy, he has to be that guy not only for the Nationals to succeed this season, but also to justify the big trade made for him.

Most Important Pitcher

Tanner Roark

To make a deep postseason run, a team usually needs three great starters to dominate a series.  After the Nationals lost the Chris Sale sweepstakes, they will be counting on Tanner Roark to be that #3 starter behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.  Recently, Roark has shown he can be that guy.  After being the odd man out a few years ago when the "Super Rotation" came to DC, Roark worked his way back into the rotation full time in 2016, winning 16 games with a 2.83 ERA in 210 innings.  He followed that up with a successful run in the WBC this spring.  If he pitches how he is capable of pitching, the Nationals may have their third ace without making a move.

Player to Watch

Koda Glover

At the end of the 2016 season, the Nationals had a farm system stocked full of talent poised to burst on the scene in 2017.  After the Adam Eaton trade, most of that talent is gone.  However, one player that is worth paying attention to is Koda Glover.  Glover, who played a little in the big leagues last season, is a live arm starting the season in the Nats' bullpen.  Under ideal circumstances, Glover becomes the reason why the Nationals didn't trade for a closer this offseason as he takes the job and runs with it.

2017 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in World Series

I think this is the year the Nationals finally do it!  Their lineup rivals the Cubs in talent and depth.  Their top three starting pitchers can rival the Mets.  The moves they made this offseason, especially the Adam Eaton trade, not only show a commitment to winning now, but also will greatly help the team be better this season.  However, the X factor for the Nationals is their manager.  This team has found the perfect balance of analytic, sabermetric front office with an old school, clubhouse manager in Dusty Baker.  Baker in DC is a perfect fit, and last year's success proves my point.  This team is strong and has the experience across the board to make the deep run in the postseason the city, and the league, has been waiting for.

Fearless Prediction

Trea Turner will start the All Star Game at shortstop.

In 2016, Trea Turner showed that he is a star in the making.  He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting, only losing to Corey Seager.  That was while only playing half a season (73 games) and playing out of position (centerfield instead of his original shortstop).  Yet he had a .342 average, 13 homers, 40 RBI's, and 33 steals.  Now he is the Opening Day shortstop and leadoff hitter.  By the end of the season, Trea Turner will be considered one of the best young shortstops in the game with names like Lindor, Correa, Diaz, Story, and Seager.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

#3

The Chicago Cubs made history in 2016 and finally ended the curse that kept them from winning a championship since 1908.  Can they make history again in 2017 and repeat?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

Jake Arrieta will spend at least 1-2 months on the DL.

2016 Results

103-58, 1st in NL Central, won the World Series

Going into the 2016 season, few would argue against the fact that the Cubs were the most talented team in the league.  Being so young, I thought they were one or two years away from finally putting it all together.  I was wrong.  They dominated the regular season and showed that destiny was on their side by making their way all the way to the championship.  It is impressive to pull off something like this when the pressure of so much futility is on your backs.  The Cubs overcame that and did the impossible.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Jake Arrieta may not have ended up on the DL, but he did see a drop off in production as his work load finally caught up with him.

Additions / Subtractions

The scary part when you think about the 2017 Cubs is they are bringing back almost the exact same roster they had in 2016.  Very few changes were made simply because so much of their roster is so young.  Aroldis Chapman went back to the Yankees, but the Cubs traded Jorge Soler to the Royals for the dominant Wade Davis.  Jason Hammel signed elsewhere in free agency, but he was replaced with veteran Brett Anderson.  Dexter Fowler signed with the Cardinals, but he was replaced internally with the Cubs' outstanding farm system.  Not to mention, Kyle Schwarber is now healthy, considered one of the best young hitters in baseball.

Most Important Hitter

Jason Heyward

If anyone on the Cubs was disappointed by the way the 2016 season turned out, it was Jason Heyward.  After signing the huge contract before 2016, Heyward's bat fell asleep, leading to a .230 average with 7 home runs and 49 RBI's.  This led to Heyward watching most of the postseason from the bench.  The Cubs are talented all over the field, but unless Heyward starts to produce at the plate like he is capable of, 2016 might be remembered for both the World Series win and one of the worst free agent contracts ever given.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

For the second year in a row, a pitcher for the Cubs came out of nowhere and is now considered one of the best in the game.  2015 brought us Jake Arrieta.  2016 brought us Kyle Hendricks.  Although the Cubs' lineup is filled with young talent, their starting rotation is quite old, with Hendricks the only pitcher under 30 starting the year in the rotation.  With Jon Lester continuing to age and Jake Arrieta entering his contract year, the Cubs need Hendricks to emerge as the ace of the staff moving into the future.

Player to Watch

Albert Almora, Jr.

The player benefiting the most from the absence of Dexter Fowler in the Cubs' outfield is rookie Albert Almora, Jr.  Almora got a decent run last season, playing in 47 games.  He barely kept his rookie status for 2017, and now he is entering the season as the team's starting centerfielder.  The Cubs have an outstanding farm system, but Almora is one of the few great prospects they have that is poised to make an impact for the Cubs this season.  Some might have an impact through trade, but Almora will be patrolling the outfield for the Cubs for awhile.

2017 Prediction

1st in NL Central, lose in NLCS

The Cubs are once again the most talented team in baseball.  I see them once again having the best record in baseball.  With all that said, it is extremely hard to win back-to-back World Series championships.  It hasn't happened in almost 20 years, and it has only happened three times for a National League team.  (One of those three just happens to be the last time the Cubs won...)  The Cubs will have a good run, but I see the age of their pitching catch up to them, leaving them just short of the World Series.

Fearless Prediction

The Chicago Cubs will set the record for most wins in a season in 2017.

I see the Cubs writing a similar script to the Golden State Warriors in 2017.  The Warriors were the up-and-coming team everyone loved that played their way to a championship in 2015.  The 2016 Warriors won more games than any other NBA team in history, but they couldn't win the title.  I see the Cubs following a similar path.  Everyone loved the 2016 Cubs as they won their title.  With the makeup of this team, I could see them respond this season by having a historic run.  However, it seems every historic run ends in something less than a championship.  Look for the Cubs to top the 116 win total set by the 2001 Mariners and the 1906 Cubs.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

#4

Sports Illustrated predicted the Houston Astros would win the 2017 World Series ... in 2014!  The Astros made the playoff appearance in 2015 with their young stars, but followed it up with a letdown season in 2016.  Will 2017 prove the Sports Illustrated writers to be geniuses, or will they underwhelm once again?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

Carlos Correa will win the AL MVP.

2016 Results

84-78, 3rd in AL West

The win total of the Houston Astros only dropped two games from 2015 to 2016, however everyone around them got better, dropping them to third in their division with no chance at a playoff birth.  The 2015 Astros were much better than they were supposed to be.  This raised expectations much higher than was realistic for 2016.  A key example of this was Carlos Correa, who exploded in 2015, but did not come close to winning the MVP as I predicted he would do.

Additions / Subtractions

For so long, the Astros have been all about building the farm system and building the future.  The 2017 offseason showed that the Astros have arrived at that future.  All of a sudden, they started to spend money and acquire veterans to complement their group of young stars.  Josh Reddick was brought in to start in rightfield.  Nori Aoki was brought in to start in leftfield.  Brian McCann was brought in to be a power-hitting catcher.  Carlos Beltran was brought back to Houston to try and relive some of his past heroics in an Astros uniform.  The only notable subtractions were upgrades at catcher (McCann over Jason Castro) and leftfield (Aoki over Colby Rasmus).

Most Important Hitter

Carlos Correa

It is easy to forget that Carlos Correa is only 22 years old.  Being a number one overall pick and having instant success will make that happen.  With all that said, Correa is a centerpiece of this franchise and a key to the Astros' present and future success.  I predicted him to be the MVP last season, which may have been a little premature.  However, he needs to be at an MVP caliber this season or very soon after for the Astros to reach the championship level they feel they can reach.

Most Important Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel

In 2015, Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young.  Again, when players find instant success, quite often a player regresses the next season.  That is what happened for Keuchel.  He went 9-12 with a 4.55 ERA, far from his Cy Young level.  Many people believe the Astros should have traded for Jose Quintana over the offseason (and still might mid-season) because of the fact that no one knows if there is a true ace on this staff.  Whether a trade happens for Quintana or not, Dallas Keuchel needs to get back to the level he was at in 2015 if the Astros want to get back to the playoffs.

Player to Watch

David Paulino

The Astros have several prospects that could play a role for the team in one of two ways.  They may either make an impact for the team down the stretch, or they might be part of a package that helps bring an ace like Jose Quintana into Houston.  David Paulino is one of those propects.  This 23 year old pitcher got a taste of the big leagues at the end of 2016 and could be a presence in the rotation for the Astros (or White Sox) at any point this season.

2017 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALCS

After a year of regression, I see 2017 as the year the Astros take the next step forward.  They have such a great combination of young budding stars and established veterans that have been there before.  They should have no problem scoring runs.  Their pitching will be good and potentially great if they make the trade everyone expects them to make at some point.  They won a Wild Card Game and went to the ALDS in 2015.  Look for the Astros to win their first AL West division title ever and make it all the way to the ALCS this season.

Fearless Prediction

Jose Quintana will be an Astro before Memorial Day.

It won't take the Astros long to realize they need that extra arm in their rotation.  The White Sox want to get rid of Quintana, and he would be a perfect fit in Houston.  With all the moves the Astros made this offseason, it is obvious they want to win either this year or next year.  If one more move is going to get you there, you make the move.  Look for it to happen sooner rather than later.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

#5

The Los Angeles Dodgers won their fourth straight division title in 2016, but have yet to see all these postseason appearances result in even a World Series birth.  Will 2017 be more of the same, or bring about a change in fate for the better or worse?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

Yasiel Puig will be traded by the Trade Deadline.

2016 Results

91-71, 1st in NL West, lost in NLCS

For awhile, people were wondering if Clayton Kershaw's Dodgers could win a postseason series, let alone make a deep championship run.  Well, in 2016 Kershaw stepped up and led his team passed the NLDS only to run into the buzzsaw that was the Cubs.  For a rookie manager, and a team that had struggled in the postseason, this wasn't a bad season.  However, with the amount of money being spent on this team, anything less than a World Series is a disappointment.

Additions / Subtractions

For the most part, the Dodgers were fairly quiet this offseason.  They added some outfield depth in Franklin Gutierrez.  However, the big story around them all offseason was not if they were going to trade for a second baseman, but which second baseman were they going to trade for.  After being linked to the Twins' Brian Dozier for most of the offseason, the Dodgers pulled the trigger on the Rays' Logan Forsythe.

Most Important Hitter

Yasmani Grandal

With all the stars on the Dodgers, a guy like Yasmani Grandal is easily overlooked.  However, he has been one of the most productive catchers offensively in the entire league over the last few seasons.  Acquired from the Padres in the strange Matt Kemp deal, Grandal put up 27 homers in 2016.  With emerging stars like Corey Seager and Justin Turner anchoring the heart of the order with a professional hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, a bat like Yasmani Grandal, if he keeps up this production, could emerge as an unlikely star that adds to the depth of the batting order.

Most Important Pitcher

Rich Hill

The starting rotation, in a lot of ways, still feels like Clayton Kershaw and everybody else.  Ever since Zack Greinke left for Arizona before last season, the Dodgers' rotation has lacked a lot of depth.  Mid-season last year, the Dodgers acquired Rich Hill from the A's.  Hill had been working to resurrect his career, and had successfully done so.  Now he is a 37 year old starter and is being counted on to be, at the least, a complement to Kershaw.  At the most, he will be looked to as the second ace of the Dodgers' staff.

Player to Watch

Cody Bellinger

A strong farm system is one that can absorb blockbuster trades that help the team now while not fully giving up the future.  That is what the Dodgers have.  Although they traded away a big arm like Jose De Leon to bring in Logan Forsythe, they still have phenoms like Julio Urias and reigning Rookie of the Year Corey Seager who played last season, as well as a guy like Cody Bellinger who is set to make his debut this season.  Depending on how he progresses, and how well the Dodgers' outfield plays, this 21 year old outfielder might be seen mid-season or as a September call-up.  Either way, if the Dodgers end up making a postseason run, look for Bellinger to be an impact player down the stretch much like Seager was in 2015.

2017 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in NLDS

The Dodgers seem to be a great regular season team, but not a strong postseason team.  2017 should bring about more of the same.  They should easily win the division this year.  However, once they hit the playoffs, I see them struggling again.  I don't see them having improved themselves enough to beat either of the teams I have ahead of them.  Almost any other team would feel some sense of success in a season like this.  For the Dodgers, this looks like it will be another season of disappointment.

Fearless Prediction

Dodgers will finish runner-up in both the MVP and Cy Young races.

Every year Clayton Kershaw plays is a year he will contend for the Cy Young Award.  I see him coming up just short in 2017, but he will still be quite dominant.  On the flip side, Corey Seager is emerging as one of the great superstars in our game today.  He might not get all the way to winning the MVP this season, but he will get close.  Look for him to win at least one in the next 5 years.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

#6

The Cleveland Indians surprised everyone in 2016 by making a deep postseason run, coming so very close to ending their long championship drought.  Will 2017 provide a repeat performance?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in AL Central

Trevor Bauer will need Tommy John surgery by the end of the season.

2016 Results

94-67, 1st in AL Central, lost World Series

One of my worst predictions of all time was the 2016 Cleveland Indians.  The only consolation I have is I was not alone in doubting the potential of the Tribe.  The Indians rode solid starting pitching, timely hitting, and a dominant bullpen all the way to extra innings in Game 7 of the World Series before their run came to an end by the hand of the Chicago Cubs and a rain delay.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Trevor Bauer did not go down with Tommy John, however he did hurt his team in the playoffs when he had a run-in with a drone.  I'll call that prediction a push.

Additions / Subtractions

The Indians made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by bringing in veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion.  The biggest weakness of the Indians has been their offense, however Encarnacion will definitely improve that aspect as he replaces Mike Napoli as the DH.  Other than that, the Indians are bringing back a very similar roster to last season.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Brantley

Although the Indians didn't make any other big offseason moves, getting Michael Brantley back healthy is like making another big free agent signing.  Brantley was one of the best hitters in baseball for a three or four year stretch.  However, he only played 11 games in 2016 as injuries have really disrupted his career.  Now, he is trying to come back and resume what was becoming a superstar career.  The Indians made their run last season without their best hitter.  It is really remarkable.  If Brantley can come back and be dominant again, the combination of Brantley, Encarnacion, Kipnis, and Lindor will completely change the face of this offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Danny Salazar

I'll be honest with you ... I can't tell the difference between Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.  With Corey Kluber emerging as an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball, these two young arms have been slotted as the second and third starters on the staff.  Their 2016 numbers are almost identical even!  Carrasco started 25 games, and went 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 146.1 innings.  Salazar stared 25 games, and went 11-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 161 strikeouts over 137.1 innings.  By the way, both were also hurt for the playoff run and weren't in the rotation.  They are both quality starters that have the potential to be All Stars.  They both need to take a step forward in 2017 for this pitching staff to improve.  Why am I going with Salazar over Carrasco?  He is three years younger so he has more opportunity to grow.

Player to Watch

Bradley Zimmer

Tyler Naquin is a second year player patrolling centerfield.  Michael Brantley's health is a question mark heading into the season in leftfield.  Journeyman Abraham Almonte is on his third team before the age of 28 and starting in rightfield.  The outfield has some potential holes.  Enter the Indians' top prospect Bradley Zimmer.  This 24 year old prospect has all the makings of a future star in the big leagues.  If one of these question marks fall through during the 2017 season, look for Zimmer to emerge as a future mainstay in their outfield.

2017 Predictions

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

It is so hard to repeat the success of a surprise season like the Indians in 2016.  However, if the Kansas City Royals are any indicator on how to do it, it starts with a dominant bullpen.  That is one thing no one is questioning about the Indians in 2017.  They have too much talent and too good of a manger in Terry Francona to miss the playoffs.  I don't see the magic repeating itself from last year though.  They will be back there soon though.

Fearless Prediction

The Indians will trade for a starting catcher mid-season.

Yan Gomes has been the starting catcher for the Indians in recent years.  However, his 2016 season was terrible.  If he struggles again this year, the Indians will have no choice but to find someone else to be their backstop.  They have a catching prospect in Francisco Mejia that will be ready in the next year or two, but that won't help them this season.  Look for a move to be made for a veteran catcher and for the Indians to give up on Gomes.