2017 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

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The Cleveland Indians surprised everyone in 2016 by making a deep postseason run, coming so very close to ending their long championship drought.  Will 2017 provide a repeat performance?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in AL Central

Trevor Bauer will need Tommy John surgery by the end of the season.

2016 Results

94-67, 1st in AL Central, lost World Series

One of my worst predictions of all time was the 2016 Cleveland Indians.  The only consolation I have is I was not alone in doubting the potential of the Tribe.  The Indians rode solid starting pitching, timely hitting, and a dominant bullpen all the way to extra innings in Game 7 of the World Series before their run came to an end by the hand of the Chicago Cubs and a rain delay.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Trevor Bauer did not go down with Tommy John, however he did hurt his team in the playoffs when he had a run-in with a drone.  I'll call that prediction a push.

Additions / Subtractions

The Indians made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by bringing in veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion.  The biggest weakness of the Indians has been their offense, however Encarnacion will definitely improve that aspect as he replaces Mike Napoli as the DH.  Other than that, the Indians are bringing back a very similar roster to last season.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Brantley

Although the Indians didn't make any other big offseason moves, getting Michael Brantley back healthy is like making another big free agent signing.  Brantley was one of the best hitters in baseball for a three or four year stretch.  However, he only played 11 games in 2016 as injuries have really disrupted his career.  Now, he is trying to come back and resume what was becoming a superstar career.  The Indians made their run last season without their best hitter.  It is really remarkable.  If Brantley can come back and be dominant again, the combination of Brantley, Encarnacion, Kipnis, and Lindor will completely change the face of this offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Danny Salazar

I'll be honest with you ... I can't tell the difference between Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.  With Corey Kluber emerging as an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball, these two young arms have been slotted as the second and third starters on the staff.  Their 2016 numbers are almost identical even!  Carrasco started 25 games, and went 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 146.1 innings.  Salazar stared 25 games, and went 11-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 161 strikeouts over 137.1 innings.  By the way, both were also hurt for the playoff run and weren't in the rotation.  They are both quality starters that have the potential to be All Stars.  They both need to take a step forward in 2017 for this pitching staff to improve.  Why am I going with Salazar over Carrasco?  He is three years younger so he has more opportunity to grow.

Player to Watch

Bradley Zimmer

Tyler Naquin is a second year player patrolling centerfield.  Michael Brantley's health is a question mark heading into the season in leftfield.  Journeyman Abraham Almonte is on his third team before the age of 28 and starting in rightfield.  The outfield has some potential holes.  Enter the Indians' top prospect Bradley Zimmer.  This 24 year old prospect has all the makings of a future star in the big leagues.  If one of these question marks fall through during the 2017 season, look for Zimmer to emerge as a future mainstay in their outfield.

2017 Predictions

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

It is so hard to repeat the success of a surprise season like the Indians in 2016.  However, if the Kansas City Royals are any indicator on how to do it, it starts with a dominant bullpen.  That is one thing no one is questioning about the Indians in 2017.  They have too much talent and too good of a manger in Terry Francona to miss the playoffs.  I don't see the magic repeating itself from last year though.  They will be back there soon though.

Fearless Prediction

The Indians will trade for a starting catcher mid-season.

Yan Gomes has been the starting catcher for the Indians in recent years.  However, his 2016 season was terrible.  If he struggles again this year, the Indians will have no choice but to find someone else to be their backstop.  They have a catching prospect in Francisco Mejia that will be ready in the next year or two, but that won't help them this season.  Look for a move to be made for a veteran catcher and for the Indians to give up on Gomes.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians had a good deal of success in 2014 even if it didn't lead them to the playoffs.  Will Terry Francona continue to lead the Tribe in these winning ways in 2015?

Last Season

85-77, 3rd in AL Central

The Indians were able to follow up their improbable run to the Wild Card in 2013 with another improbable winning season.  Although they were beaten out by Detroit and the eventual AL champ Royals in the Central, the season was a definite success.  Michael Brantley announced his presence as one of the top young hitters in the game, and Corey Kluber rode a ridiculous second half of the season to a Cy Young Award.  Even with down years from the likes of Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Jason Kipnis, the Tribe finished with a winning record and only a few games away from repeating a Wild Card run.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The primary subtractions heading into 2015 for the Indians took place at the Trade Deadline in 2014, when they dealt away Asdrubal Cabrera and Justin Masterson.  They really didn't lose anyone else from their roster besides clubhouse mentor Jason Giambi.  Coming to the Tribe in 2015 is Brandon Moss from Oakland, who will add lineup depth with his consistent bat in rightfield.

Most Important Hitter

Jason Kipnis

Jason Kipnis experienced a breakout year in 2013, making the All Star team and helping anchor a lineup that went to the playoffs.  In 2014, he came back down to earth, tallying career lows in batting average (.240) and home runs (6).  If the Indians want to find themselves back in the playoffs in 2014, Jason Kipnis needs to get back on track and return to his All Star form.  With young talent in the middle infield coming up through the farm system, look for Kipnis to be expendable if he doesn't produce.

Most Important Pitcher

Corey Kluber

In only his second full season in the big leagues, Corey Kluber came out of nowhere to become one of, if not the, most dominant pitcher in the American League.  He had career highs in wins (18), strikeouts (269), ERA (2.44), and had a 7.4 WAR as a starting pitcher.  No wonder he won the Cy Young as he almost single-handedly kept the Indians in the playoff hunt.  The question surrounding Kluber going into 2015 is can he repeat that performance.  His 34 starts last year bested his previous high by 10, and his 235.2 innings pitched was the first time he pitched over 150 innings in the big leagues.  Yes, his numbers were outrageous in 2014, but could an unprecedented work load on his arm lead his performance to be an anomaly?  Considering how quickly his inning count spiked and how his numbers spiked (his ERA dropped by almost a run and a half from 2013 to 2014), it wouldn't be unfathomable to think that Kluber will have a down year in 2015.  The problem is the Indians need him to be the dominant Cy Young winning anchor of their staff to have another shot at the playoffs.  I see a stint on the DL more likely than a repeat of that level of dominance.

Player to Watch

Francisco Lindor

Some people wondered why the Indians were so willing to part ways with their longtime shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera in 2014.  Those that knew the Indians organization knew exactly why they traded him, and his name is Francisco Lindor.  Ranked as the #1 prospect in the Indians farm system and #4 on MLB.com's Top 100, this 21 year old shortstop is a future superstar that the Tribe had to clear a path for.  Although he will not start this season on the major league roster, watch for him to burst on the scene at some point this year.  The timing is going to depend on the success of the current big league middle infielders (Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez).

Prediction

4th in AL Central

I always seem to underestimate the Indians.  Every year, they over-perform and surprise the league.  This is a huge testament to their manager, Terry Francona.  However, there are just too many question marks heading into 2015 to see them repeating the success of the last few years.  Can Corey Kluber duplicate his Cy Young season?  Can Michael Brantley pick up where he left off last season?  Can Michael Bourn return to being the lead-off hitter he is being paid to be?  Can Jason Kipnis return to his All Star form?  Does Nick Swisher have one more solid season in him?  Can a no-name bullpen finish games?  For them to make a playoff run, all of those questions have to be answered with a resounding yes, which is unlikely.  In a division that keeps getting more and more competitive every season, I see the Indians taking a step back in 2015.  With that said, knowing that it's Terry Francona's team, don't be surprised if I am wrong.