2021 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

 #5

The Toronto Blue Jays' young roster went through a tumultuous 2020 season and still made the playoffs.  Was that a sign of things to come for the team to the North?

2020 Predictions

#20 - 3rd in AL East

MIH - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

MIP - Hyun Jin Ryu

PTW - Nate Pearson

2020 Results

#11 - 32-28, 3rd in AL East, lost in Wild Card Round

The Blue Jays benefitted from the expanded playoffs by sneaking into one of the last two spots made available.  After having a winning record and playing their home games in their AAA stadium in Buffalo, the young Blue Jays had to be excited about the success they saw.  The team of baby boomers is filled with second generation MLB talent ready to burst into stardom.  They took huge steps forward in 2020 that have to excite Blue Jay fans.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by landing centerfielder George Springer in a major free agent deal.  He will serve as a veteran presence with a lot of postseason experience to lead this team of kids.  They also surprised by signing shortstop Marcus Semien to come in and man second base.  As far as the pitching is concerned, mid-season acquisition Taijuan Walker signed a free agent deal with the Mets so the Mets traded Steven Matz to the Blue Jays.  The Jays also signed Kirby Yates to be their closer, but a recent injury will require Tommy John surgery and put him out for all of the 2021 season at least.

Most Important Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It almost feels like some people are ready to give up on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the can't miss phenom everyone thought he was going to be.  People thought he would hit the big leagues and immediately win a Triple Crown.  Instead, he has been good but not great, having 106 and 116 OPS+ totals in his first two seasons.  Not having the immediate success everyone thought has led to him being passed up by some of his young teammates like Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio.  With as long as we have been talking about him, it's easy to forget that Vlad Jr. is only 22 years old.  He entered camp this year in the best shape of his life, losing a lot of weight in the offseason.  Although the Blue Jays saw success in 2020 without the best version of Vlad Jr., seeing him fulfill his potential is one of the ways this team takes the next step forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Steven Matz

The new acquisition was originally touted as one of the Mets phenoms when he came up alongside the likes of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.  It seems like the high expectations that Steven Matz never quite met required a change of scenery to breathe life back into his career.  Now he has that fresh start on a rising team.  Hyun Jin Ryu established himself as the ace last season, and several others from the rotation are starting the season injured.  It definitely gives Steven Matz an opportunity to make an immediate impact on his new club.

Prospect to Watch

Nate Pearson

He had a chance to make a huge impact in 2020 for the Blue Jays, but flamethrower Nate Pearson only saw the field for 5 games in the shortened COVID season.  With that said, he did make the postseason roster and pitched some critical innings.  Now, this 6th best prospect in all of baseball is ready to start the season in the rotation for the Jays (after a hopefully short stint on the IL) and be a crucial part of this team's pitching staff.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

In 2020, the Blue Jays snuck into the playoffs and couldn't win a game once they got there.  Now they have a taste of the postseason and want to get back.  George Springer I think is possibly the most impactful signing of the offseason as he brings that veteran experience while still being in his prime to such a young team.  It will be interesting to see if there is any impact with the Blue Jays once again not being allowed to play in Toronto to start the season thanks to border restrictions.  I see this lineup taking off and leading them to the ALDS regardless of where they play.

Fearless Prediction

The Blue Jays will trade for a closer before Memorial Day.

With Kirby Yates going down for the year, it leaves a huge hole in the back end of the Blue Jays' bullpen.  Before Memorial Day, they will identify a top end reliever with a hot start on a team that won't be competing this year (maybe someone like Craig Kimbrel for the Cubs?), and they will pull off a deal to make sure their bullpen doesn't cost them a chance to have a special team in 2021.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

 #13

The Houston Astros struggled in the 2020 regular season, barely making the playoffs, but once they were in they were a game away from making the World Series.  What will come next for one of the most successful teams of the last 5 years?

2020 Predictions

#6 - 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

MIH - Carlos Correa

MIP - Lance McCullers Jr.

PTW - Forrest Whitley

2020 Results

#16 - 29-31, 2nd in AL West, lost in ALCS

If any team benefited from the COVID layoff and no fans in 2020, it was the Houston Astros.  Coming off a huge scandal with sign stealing, by the time the season start in 2020, the narrative had changed and there were no fans to heckle them.  With all that said, the Astros struggled in the regular season, finishing below .500 and only making the playoffs because of the special 2020 rule that all second place finishers make the playoffs.  Their postseason run did show they know what to do when they get there though, losing in Game 7 of the ALCS to the Rays.  So was 2020 a successful season?  Yes and no.

Additions / Subtractions

Everyone knew the core of this Astros team wouldn't be able to stay together forever.  At some point, when all these young players are ready to get paid, some were going to move on.  For the first time, this happened this offseason as George Springer, the team's best player in 2020, signed in free agency with the Toronto Blue Jays.  Outfielder Josh Reddick also is no longer on the roster.  Both spots the Astros chose to replace internally.  In terms of pitching, they brought in Jake Odorizzi late in the process to help compensate for some injuries suffered during Spring Training.  For a team that was loading up talent only a few years ago, the Astros seemed to have reached a point where they are just trying to maintain as much as possible.

Most Important Hitter

Jose Altuve

Many players in the Astros' lineup had lackluster shortened seasons in 2020, but no one struggled quite like Jose Altuve.  The former league MVP has earned the reputation as one of the best hitters in baseball, but 2020 led to a .219 average and a 71 OPS+, both career lows.  Could he have bounced back if given a full 162?  Maybe.  Could his production have dropped due to the sign stealing scandal?  Maybe.  He needs to bounce back in 2021, not only to show everyone his reputation was earned and not stolen, but also because the Astros need the bat to set the table at the top of their lineup.  Losing leadoff hitter George Springer leaves a huge hole in the Astros' lineup.  If Altuve gets back to doing Altuve things, it will go a long way to replacing that production.

Most Important Pitcher

Cristian Javier

The Astros had some pretty big seasons out of some unheralded young pitchers in their rotation, especially after ace Justin Verlander went down after Opening Day.  Between Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier, the Astros were able to round out a solid rotation alongside Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr.  This was shown particularly in the playoffs.  Now, the Astros are counting on them to repeat that production in 2021.  Framber Valdez broke a finger in his first Spring start and might miss the season.  This makes Cristian Javier that much more important.  Entering his age 24 season and coming off a 3rd place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting, Javier will be counted on to have another strong season and become one of the aces of this staff.

Prospect to Watch

Pedro Leon

The Astros built this roster from the ground up.  When you do that as successfully as the Astros have done, you are going to go from a top farm system to a bad farm system.  That's what has happened here.  The Astros only have one Top 100 prospect in Forrest Whitley, who probably should have made his debut by now if it weren't for some injuries and suspensions.  Now he is down with Tommy John and will delay his debut even longer.  So let's talk about someone else that might actually play in 2021.  Pedro Leon is a Cuban defector that signed with the Astros just days before George Springer signed with the Blue Jays.  Now, the Astros are looking at this outfielder as Springer's possible replacement in centerfield.  If Miles Straw struggles in center, look for the 22 year old Leon to be given a shot sooner rather than later, even though he will only be playing his first season in the states.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL West

There are so many question marks surrounding this team in 2021.  Can the lineup be productive without George Springer?  How much does Zack Greinke have left in the tank?  Can the kids in the rotation repeat their strong 2020 seasons?  Will Yordan Alvarez's knee hold up this season?  Will the Astros make a decision about Carlos Correa during his contract year?  And most importantly, how will the roster react to actually having to deal with fans for the first time since they were punished for the sign stealing scandal?  How will they react to watching their World Series winning manager walk into Houston wearing a Detroit Tigers jersey?  Could the Astros make the playoffs this year?  Absolutely.  Could they win the division?  Sure.  Could they finish in 3rd or 4th place in the division?  Not impossible.  There are just too many questions to predict them to do too much.  All I have to say is the rest of the league is hoping they stay out of the postseason.  No matter how their season goes, last season showed they are always dangerous in the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Astros three core players left is playing their last season as an Astro.

Carlos Correa is entering his contract year and will be looking for a big pay day.  Jose Altuve is getting paid top dollar but is coming off a bad season.  Alex Bregman also struggled in 2020, but already has a sizable contract.  The Astros want to re-sign Correa, but will it cost them one of the other stars on their team?  I think either Correa goes elsewhere or they find a way to move on from one of their other stars.  This season has the potential to show the Astros they need to start to deepen their talent pool and roster instead of invest in the few left from their World Series core.  So many teams have copied the Astros' blueprint of success over the last several years.  Now they are going to be the trend setters on how maintain once everyone needs to be paid.  Or is it worth maintaining?  Either way, it will be fascinating to see what they do.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

#4

Sports Illustrated predicted the Houston Astros would win the 2017 World Series ... in 2014!  The Astros made the playoff appearance in 2015 with their young stars, but followed it up with a letdown season in 2016.  Will 2017 prove the Sports Illustrated writers to be geniuses, or will they underwhelm once again?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

Carlos Correa will win the AL MVP.

2016 Results

84-78, 3rd in AL West

The win total of the Houston Astros only dropped two games from 2015 to 2016, however everyone around them got better, dropping them to third in their division with no chance at a playoff birth.  The 2015 Astros were much better than they were supposed to be.  This raised expectations much higher than was realistic for 2016.  A key example of this was Carlos Correa, who exploded in 2015, but did not come close to winning the MVP as I predicted he would do.

Additions / Subtractions

For so long, the Astros have been all about building the farm system and building the future.  The 2017 offseason showed that the Astros have arrived at that future.  All of a sudden, they started to spend money and acquire veterans to complement their group of young stars.  Josh Reddick was brought in to start in rightfield.  Nori Aoki was brought in to start in leftfield.  Brian McCann was brought in to be a power-hitting catcher.  Carlos Beltran was brought back to Houston to try and relive some of his past heroics in an Astros uniform.  The only notable subtractions were upgrades at catcher (McCann over Jason Castro) and leftfield (Aoki over Colby Rasmus).

Most Important Hitter

Carlos Correa

It is easy to forget that Carlos Correa is only 22 years old.  Being a number one overall pick and having instant success will make that happen.  With all that said, Correa is a centerpiece of this franchise and a key to the Astros' present and future success.  I predicted him to be the MVP last season, which may have been a little premature.  However, he needs to be at an MVP caliber this season or very soon after for the Astros to reach the championship level they feel they can reach.

Most Important Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel

In 2015, Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young.  Again, when players find instant success, quite often a player regresses the next season.  That is what happened for Keuchel.  He went 9-12 with a 4.55 ERA, far from his Cy Young level.  Many people believe the Astros should have traded for Jose Quintana over the offseason (and still might mid-season) because of the fact that no one knows if there is a true ace on this staff.  Whether a trade happens for Quintana or not, Dallas Keuchel needs to get back to the level he was at in 2015 if the Astros want to get back to the playoffs.

Player to Watch

David Paulino

The Astros have several prospects that could play a role for the team in one of two ways.  They may either make an impact for the team down the stretch, or they might be part of a package that helps bring an ace like Jose Quintana into Houston.  David Paulino is one of those propects.  This 23 year old pitcher got a taste of the big leagues at the end of 2016 and could be a presence in the rotation for the Astros (or White Sox) at any point this season.

2017 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALCS

After a year of regression, I see 2017 as the year the Astros take the next step forward.  They have such a great combination of young budding stars and established veterans that have been there before.  They should have no problem scoring runs.  Their pitching will be good and potentially great if they make the trade everyone expects them to make at some point.  They won a Wild Card Game and went to the ALDS in 2015.  Look for the Astros to win their first AL West division title ever and make it all the way to the ALCS this season.

Fearless Prediction

Jose Quintana will be an Astro before Memorial Day.

It won't take the Astros long to realize they need that extra arm in their rotation.  The White Sox want to get rid of Quintana, and he would be a perfect fit in Houston.  With all the moves the Astros made this offseason, it is obvious they want to win either this year or next year.  If one more move is going to get you there, you make the move.  Look for it to happen sooner rather than later.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

The Houston Astros were the surprise of the 2015 season.  Can they continue to take steps forward in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in AL West

2015 Result: 86-76, 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lost in ALDS

I knew the Astros would take some steps forward in 2015, however I did not see this coming.  A few years back, the Astros tore their roster apart and made themselves next to embarrassing for several years as they made the transition to the American League.  They said they had a plan, and 2015 started to show what that plan was.  They have established a solid young core, and they were willing to go out and find help down the stretch.  If it wasn't for a bad hop in the ALDS that allowed the Royals to advance and eventually win the World Series, who knows how far the Astros would have gone.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The great thing about having such a young roster is there aren't many adjustments that need to be made to get ready for the next year.  They traded some prospects to bring in hard-throwing reliever Ken Giles.  They let all-or-nothing slugger Chris Carter go to make room for even more youth at first base.  They brought in Doug Fister to add some depth to their rotation.  Other than that, their roster is the same as it was in September.

Most Important Hitter

Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa burst on the scene in 2015 as a 20 year old phenom and helped put the Astros into the playoffs.  Now they are counting on him to help anchor their lineup.  He has all the skills to do it, but he needs to show that he can be the superstar everyone thinks he can be.

Most Important Pitcher

Doug Fister

Last year, the Nationals boasted a rotation with five aces: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and ... who was the last one?  Oh yeah, it was Doug Fister.  Fister had been the most consistent pitcher for the Nationals over the last several years.  However, a series of injuries left him looking for a job this offseason.  The Astros brought him in to add depth to their rotation, but if he can get healthy, he can help anchor the staff along with Dallas Keuchel.

Player to Watch

A.J. Reed

The first couple weeks of the season have seen an unlikely emergence of first baseman Tyler White.  One of the aspects that made it so unlikely is the fact that A.J. Reed is the future first baseman of this team.  Tyler White most likely will not keep up this pace, which can make room for Reed to hop in and be the latest young cog to keep this machine rolling.

2016 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

It really felt like the Astros were a year early in 2015.  Now they are ready to take the next step.  Look for them to win the division, but not get much further in the playoffs than last season.  They always said they were trying to win the World Series in 2017 or 2018.  They will definitely be in a position to do that.  All this playoff experience will do them well.

Fearless Prediction

Carlos Correa will win the AL MVP.

Everyone says Carlos Correa looks like the next Alex Rodriguez at shortstop.  If you remember, A Rod almost won the MVP in his sophomore season.  I can see Correa having a similar rise to super-stardom.  Everyone talks about Mike Trout and Bryce Harper as the best players in baseball.  By the end of 2016, Carlos Correa will be added to that elite list.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are a team that is definitely building for the future.  Eventually, that future either has to come or all the planning and preparation was a complete failure.  Is it time for the Astros to be a legitimate AL West contender?

Last Season

70-92, 4th in AL West

This may not look like it, but 2014 was a success for the Houston Astros.  For the first time since 2010, the Astros did not finish in the cellar and did not lose 100 games.  In only their second season in the American League, they showed that they are no longer a laughing stock.  They are definitely trending in the right direction.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

As most of their roster consists of young prospects trying to break into the big leagues, there were not many subtractions this offseason.  The most notable loss would have to be Dexter Fowler from centerfield.  However, the Astros made a lot of smart moves to fill some holes while they wait for some prospects to be ready.  They brought in veteran SS Jed Lowrie while top prospect Carlos Correa is still a season or two away.  They also brought in Luis Valbuena and Colby Rasmus to bring a veteran presence to their young lineup.  Relievers Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek will add depth to a bullpen that cost them many games last year.  However, possibly the biggest offseason addition that will help now and in the future is acquiring Evan Gattis.  Moving him from catcher to the outfield might be a transition, but Gattis is a player that can anchor that lineup moving forward.

Most Important Hitter

George Springer

Although Jose Altuve received the notoriety last season as the AL Batting Champ, the biggest surprise for the Astros was how quickly George Springer developed.  In just 78 games, Springer was able to hit 20 home runs with 51 RBI's.  Will this season bring about a sophomore slump, or will he continue his development into the young superstar the Astros are counting on?

Most Important Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel

The biggest weakness for the Astros right now is their pitching.  Like I said, Gregerson and Neshek will help in the bullpen, but the starting rotation entering the season is borderline embarrassing.  The one pitcher they have going right now that has shown he deserves to be at the front of a rotation is Dallas Keuchel.  Last year, he had a breakout year winning 12 games with a sub-3.00 ERA while throwing 200 innings in the tough AL West.  For the Astros to continue to make strides moving forward, Keuchel needs to continue to show he can penciled in as the ace of the staff.

Player to Watch

Mark Appel

When Mark Appel was taken first overall in the 2013 Draft, some people said he might see the Astros' roster before the end of 2013.  We are now at the start of 2015, and Appel has yet to make his Major League debut.  He is finally starting to show his potential in the minors, which almost ensures that he will be starting games for the Astros at some point this year, especially considering how weak their rotation is.  If he is able to continue to develop into the pitcher everyone thinks he can be, then the Astros have a potentially elite top of the rotation with Appel and Keuchel.

Prediction

3rd in AL West

This is a care-free team with a lot of young players hungry to show what they got.  This helped them take a step last year, and they are poised to take another small step this year.  Helping in this small step is the steps back several teams took in the AL West.  They are tired of losing, even if losing has helped them get in the position they are now with the high draft picks they have made.  They are not contenders yet, but look out in a couple more years when the rest of their top prospects are ready to be stars.