2023 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

 #13

The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the most dynamic young rosters in baseball for several years now.  Will 2023 finally bring about a deep run into October?

2022 Predictions

#1 - 1st in AL East, win World Series

MIH - George Springer

MIP - Jose Berrios

PTW - Gabriel Moreno

2022 Results

#11 - 92-70, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Series

Highest WAR (Position) - George Springer

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Alek Manoah

The Blue Jays were my World Series pick in 2022.  Although they did not make it all the way to the title, the Blue Jays had a great season that ended in catastrophe after blowing a huge lead in a Wild Card Series elimination game against the Mariners.  The biggest revelation of the 2022 season was the emergence of Alek Manoah as their ace and best player.  In just his 2nd season in the big leagues, Manoah had a 174 ERA+ which led to an All Star appearance and a 3rd place finish in the Cy Young voting.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays had an interesting offseason that saw them get rid of some key contributors while bringing on some big veterans.  The biggest subtractions were outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., top prospect catcher Gabirel Moreno, and pitcher Ross Stripling.  Hernandez was traded for reliever Erik Swanson and a pitching prospect.  Gurriel and Moreno were traded for outfielder Daulton Varsho.  In free agency, they also added veterans Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier, and Brandon Belt.

Most Important Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got close to the big leagues, he has been one of the most talked about players in baseball, not just for his bloodlines but also for his immense talent.  In 2021, he showed what he is capable of finishing runner up in the AL MVP and leading the league in runs, home runs, OBP, slugging, OPS, and OPS+ in only his age 22 season.  In 2022, he was good (and even won a Gold Glove), but he wasn't near the elite production of the year before.  Now he is an established veteran and needs to prove who he is.  In 2022, he was an All Star.  In 2021, he was an elite player that could be a face of baseball.  If the Blue Jays are going to be one of the elite teams in the league, Vlad Jr. needs to be one of the elite players in the league.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Berrios

Few careers have been more inconsistent and confusing than Jose Berrios.  Every since he burst on the scene as a 22 year old in 2016, he has shown he has elite talent but not necessarily elite production.  He was an All Star in 2018 and 2019, and 2021 was probably his best season when he was traded to Toronto, but 2022 was his worst season as a big leaguer with a 5.23 ERA and a 74 ERA+.  Before the 2022 season, the Blue Jays signed him to a 7 year deal expecting him to produce like the 2021 version, not the 2022 version that had a -0.6 WAR.  The Blue Jays have a great top of the rotation with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.  Signing Chris Bassitt gives them a solid mid-rotation option, but Berrios has the potential to give the Blue Jays a third ace if he is at his best.  At his 2022 production, Berrios is a waste of a high salary.

Prospect to Watch

Yosver Zulueta

The Blue Jays have a fairly poor farm system with only one prospect featured in the Top 100 prospects and that prospect still at least a year away from having an impact at the big leagues.  The prospect most likely to impact the big league roster this season is right-handed pitcher Yosver Zulueta.  Although Zulueta is seen as a starter, he has also seen some success in the minors out of the bullpen.  The Blue Jays have some decent rotation depth, but if they are looking for some help in the bullpen, look for the 25 year old to get a shot to burst on the scene.

2023 Prediction

4th in AL East

Hot take time!  I have the Blue Jays as the best team to miss the playoffs in 2023.  Could the Blue Jays win the World Series in 2023?  Yes.  Could the Blue Jays miss the playoffs?  Yes.  The AL East is the toughest division in all of baseball with potentially 5 elite teams depending on how things go.  Easily 3 teams from this division could make the playoffs, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Blue Jays were one of the teams that missed.  I also wouldn't be surprised if they ended up in the World Series.  The AL is just that competitive.

Fearless Prediction

Alek Manoah will win the AL Cy Young in 2023.

The 2023 season will go one of two ways for Alek Manoah.  Either he is one of the best pitchers in the American League, or he gets injured and ends up spending more of the season on the IL than in the lineup.  It's one or the other.  At 25 years old, and an increased workload over his two seasons in the big leagues, it feels like an injury can be an inevitability for a pitcher in that scenario.  However, at 6'6" 285 pounds, and a nice and easy delivery, Manoah is set up better than most to withstand the workload and become one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.  The only question is if the rest of the rotation can keep up with him.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

 #5

The Toronto Blue Jays' young roster went through a tumultuous 2020 season and still made the playoffs.  Was that a sign of things to come for the team to the North?

2020 Predictions

#20 - 3rd in AL East

MIH - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

MIP - Hyun Jin Ryu

PTW - Nate Pearson

2020 Results

#11 - 32-28, 3rd in AL East, lost in Wild Card Round

The Blue Jays benefitted from the expanded playoffs by sneaking into one of the last two spots made available.  After having a winning record and playing their home games in their AAA stadium in Buffalo, the young Blue Jays had to be excited about the success they saw.  The team of baby boomers is filled with second generation MLB talent ready to burst into stardom.  They took huge steps forward in 2020 that have to excite Blue Jay fans.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by landing centerfielder George Springer in a major free agent deal.  He will serve as a veteran presence with a lot of postseason experience to lead this team of kids.  They also surprised by signing shortstop Marcus Semien to come in and man second base.  As far as the pitching is concerned, mid-season acquisition Taijuan Walker signed a free agent deal with the Mets so the Mets traded Steven Matz to the Blue Jays.  The Jays also signed Kirby Yates to be their closer, but a recent injury will require Tommy John surgery and put him out for all of the 2021 season at least.

Most Important Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It almost feels like some people are ready to give up on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the can't miss phenom everyone thought he was going to be.  People thought he would hit the big leagues and immediately win a Triple Crown.  Instead, he has been good but not great, having 106 and 116 OPS+ totals in his first two seasons.  Not having the immediate success everyone thought has led to him being passed up by some of his young teammates like Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio.  With as long as we have been talking about him, it's easy to forget that Vlad Jr. is only 22 years old.  He entered camp this year in the best shape of his life, losing a lot of weight in the offseason.  Although the Blue Jays saw success in 2020 without the best version of Vlad Jr., seeing him fulfill his potential is one of the ways this team takes the next step forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Steven Matz

The new acquisition was originally touted as one of the Mets phenoms when he came up alongside the likes of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.  It seems like the high expectations that Steven Matz never quite met required a change of scenery to breathe life back into his career.  Now he has that fresh start on a rising team.  Hyun Jin Ryu established himself as the ace last season, and several others from the rotation are starting the season injured.  It definitely gives Steven Matz an opportunity to make an immediate impact on his new club.

Prospect to Watch

Nate Pearson

He had a chance to make a huge impact in 2020 for the Blue Jays, but flamethrower Nate Pearson only saw the field for 5 games in the shortened COVID season.  With that said, he did make the postseason roster and pitched some critical innings.  Now, this 6th best prospect in all of baseball is ready to start the season in the rotation for the Jays (after a hopefully short stint on the IL) and be a crucial part of this team's pitching staff.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

In 2020, the Blue Jays snuck into the playoffs and couldn't win a game once they got there.  Now they have a taste of the postseason and want to get back.  George Springer I think is possibly the most impactful signing of the offseason as he brings that veteran experience while still being in his prime to such a young team.  It will be interesting to see if there is any impact with the Blue Jays once again not being allowed to play in Toronto to start the season thanks to border restrictions.  I see this lineup taking off and leading them to the ALDS regardless of where they play.

Fearless Prediction

The Blue Jays will trade for a closer before Memorial Day.

With Kirby Yates going down for the year, it leaves a huge hole in the back end of the Blue Jays' bullpen.  Before Memorial Day, they will identify a top end reliever with a hot start on a team that won't be competing this year (maybe someone like Craig Kimbrel for the Cubs?), and they will pull off a deal to make sure their bullpen doesn't cost them a chance to have a special team in 2021.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#25

The Toronto Blue Jays have a new coaching staff and the most talked about player in baseball to have yet to play in single major league game.  Will the changes and the hype make immediate success in 2019, or will it point to a bright future not yet realized?

2018 Predictions

3rd in AL East

2018 will be Josh Donaldson's last season as a Blue Jay.

2018 Results

73-89, 4th in AL East

The Blue Jays had another less than stellar season in 2018 as the window on their latest wave of success officially slammed closed.  The team started into full rebuild mode, which was shown by the mid-season trades of any veterans with value: Steve Pearce, JA Happ, Roberto Osuna, and former MVP Josh Donaldson.  Outside of trading these players to contenders, and giving a native Canadian (James Paxton) his first no-hitter on his native soil, the Blue Jays really had an inconsequential season.
The biggest story of the season might have been the fact that their top prospect didn't get the call-up despite every indication that he was ready (keep building the hype!).

Additions / Subtractions

The subtractions were more notable than the additions.  Veteran catcher Russell Martin was moved to the Dodgers, and outfielder Curtis Granderson, as well as infielders Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte, left via free agency.  In their place?  They were replaced internally for the most part.  In fact, outside of starting pitchers Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard entering the organization, the roster is practically unchanged from the way it ended last season.  The most significant change was the firing of longtime manager John Gibbons and the hiring of longtime Rays' coach Charlie Montoyo.

Most Important Hitter

Randal Grichuk

At one point, Randal Grichuk was a top prospect and looked at as a centerpiece of the next generation of Cardinals in St. Louis.  After not being as strong as expected, he was moved to Toronto before last season.  In his first year in Toronto, he was solid hitting 25 homers and a 118 OPS+.  He was third on the team in WAR behind first baseman Justin Smoak and defensive freak Kevin Pillar.  The Blue Jays acquired him with the hope that a change of scenery would help him achieve some of the success his talent once promised.  If he is to be a potential building block of the next wave of Blue Jay success that is around the corner, 2019 is an important year for him to show that he is worthy of it.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

In 2016, Aaron Sanchez was the next great ace in the league.  He went 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA (led the league) and had a 142 ERA+ (league average is 100).  The Blue Jays shut down his season early to control innings and hopefully avoid injuries.  Even with the extra precautions, the injuries came anyways, only throwing 36 innings in 2017 and 105 innings in 2018.  The only encouraging sign is the injuries were mainly revolving around finger injuries and not shoulder or elbow.  Even when he was healthy in 2018, he posted a 4.89 ERA and an 86 ERA+, the first time he dropped below average in his career.  Sanchez is only entering his age 26 season, and if he is healthy the Blue Jays are hoping he returns to form, even if it is just to drive up the asking price for his potential mid-season trade to a contender.

Prospect to Watch

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The hype is real!  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the overall top prospect in baseball and one of the best hitting prospects to come along in the last few decades.  With the success he showed at the plate in the minors last year, he should have been on the roster for the last half of 2018, however the Blue Jays are trying to control service time and keep him in their organization for as long as possible.  Because of that, don't expect to see him in the big leagues until mid-April as the Blue Jays eek out one more extra year of club control.  Once he arrives, be prepared for him to hit.  He may only be 19, but he is ready.  If he stays at third base, watch for two sons of former players, Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette (might be called up by mid-season), to be the future left side of the Toronto infield for the next five or six seasons.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL East

The top of this division is definitely in a different category than the bottom.  The Blue Jays are in no way ready to compete with the top three teams in the division.  They are at least a couple years away from being competitive again.  However, as soon as Vlad Jr. is called us to big leagues, no one will be able to say they aren't exciting.  Vlad will mark the start of a new wave of stud prospects hitting the big league club over the next few seasons that will make them competitive again.  Until then, enjoy watching Vlad hit.  It will be one of the few things the Blue Jay fans will have to cheer for this season, especially if guys like Bo Bichette are held back unfairly like Vlad Jr. was.

Fearless Prediction

Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez will be traded mid-season.

The Blue Jays are probably eyeing 2021 or 2022 as their peak year to really start competing again in the AL East.  That is when their top prospects will really be hitting their prime.  Both Stroman and Sanchez will be free agents after the 2021 season.  Add that to the fact that the top of the Blue Jays' farm system is loaded with hitters but lacking a little in the pitching department, and it would make sense if they decided to move these two potential aces now to bring back some pitching prospects that will be peaking at the same time as the rest of their prospects.  Either way, if they are not viewed as being on the team when the Blue Jays plan on being competitive again, trade them now.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#22

The Toronto Blue Jays went from perennial playoff contender to irrelevance in 2017.  Does 2018 bring a return to form or more of the same?

2017 Predictions

5th in AL East

No Blue Jays starting pitcher will start more than 30 games.

2017 Results

76-86, 4th in AL East

I had a pretty good read on the Blue Jays last year.  Losing some key pieces, watching others age in front of them, and fighting through injuries led to them only one game out of the cellar in the AL East.  As for their pitching, Marcus Stroman and JA Happ were able to each start 33 games, however 2016 All Star Aaron Sanchez had the setback I predicted, only pitching 36 innings in an injury-plagued campaign.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays made some minor moves for some veterans that will help fill out their roster in 2018.  The most noteworthy additions were veteran Curtis Granderson to man leftfield and former top prospect Randal Grichuk to man rightfield.  Some other minor moves for depth were infielders Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz along with pitchers Jaime Garcia and Seung Hwan Oh.  None of these moves could be considered huge difference makers (maybe Grichuk), but it helps the lineup look respectable in 2018 as opposed to some of the "extreme tankers" (Marlins, I'm looking at you).

Most Important Hitter

Justin Smoak

In 2017, Justin Smoak went from a prime example of potential that never delivers to finally putting it all together to be an All Star.  Now entering 2018, the Blue Jays are going to be relying on Smoak to anchor the center of their order with Josh Donaldson.  More times than not, when a player has a spike year like Smoak did in 2017, it is more likely for it to be a fluke instead of a sign of good things to come.  The Blue Jays are really hoping Smoak can buck the trend.

Most Important Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

Over the last few seasons, Marcus Stroman has emerged as one of the better pitchers in baseball.  Only entering his age 27 season, Stroman will try and repeat a productive 2017 that started with him dominating in the WBC and finished with him being the best player on the Blue Jays in terms of WAR.  Stroman is the ultimate competitor.  Will he be able to stay interested and on top of his game if the Blue Jays aren't in contention?  Also, he has thrown over 200 innings the last two seasons.  He has not had a history of arm issues (although he is working through some shoulder inflammation right now).  Will he be able to avoid the inevitable lost season young pitchers have had to arm problems?

Prospect to Watch

Anthony Alford

The Blue Jays have a pretty stacked farm system, highlighted by a couple second generation big leaguers.  However, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are still at least a year away from being ready for the big leagues.  The intriguing one to watch for 2018 is Anthony Alford.  This former football player for Southern Miss is a crazy athlete with blazing speed.  His other tools are still developing, but the Blue Jays would love to see him break through in leftfield at some point this year and maybe even be their leadoff hitter with a little pop.

2018 Prediction

3rd in AL East

Predicting them to finish in the middle of the AL East might be a little deceiving.  The Yankees and Red Sox are the only teams in this division that will finish over .500.  The Blue Jays are actually set up well moving forward.  They have some big-time prospects waiting in the wings and a decent pitching staff, led by Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, that will still be there when they are ready to compete again.  This season might not be a success in Toronto, but they are building to something great.

Fearless Prediction

2018 will be Josh Donaldson's last season as a Blue Jay.

Josh Donaldson only has one more year of control after 2018.  His relationship with the Blue Jays' front office has been rocky at best throughout his time in Toronto.  Chances are he will not be re-signing with the Blue Jays.  The Blue Jays probably don't want him back considering they have one of the top prospects in the world (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) that plays third base.  So all this leads to, ideally, an offseason trade to bring back more prospects that will support this new wave that will be ready to compete in a few years.