2023 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

 #13

The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the most dynamic young rosters in baseball for several years now.  Will 2023 finally bring about a deep run into October?

2022 Predictions

#1 - 1st in AL East, win World Series

MIH - George Springer

MIP - Jose Berrios

PTW - Gabriel Moreno

2022 Results

#11 - 92-70, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Series

Highest WAR (Position) - George Springer

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Alek Manoah

The Blue Jays were my World Series pick in 2022.  Although they did not make it all the way to the title, the Blue Jays had a great season that ended in catastrophe after blowing a huge lead in a Wild Card Series elimination game against the Mariners.  The biggest revelation of the 2022 season was the emergence of Alek Manoah as their ace and best player.  In just his 2nd season in the big leagues, Manoah had a 174 ERA+ which led to an All Star appearance and a 3rd place finish in the Cy Young voting.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays had an interesting offseason that saw them get rid of some key contributors while bringing on some big veterans.  The biggest subtractions were outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., top prospect catcher Gabirel Moreno, and pitcher Ross Stripling.  Hernandez was traded for reliever Erik Swanson and a pitching prospect.  Gurriel and Moreno were traded for outfielder Daulton Varsho.  In free agency, they also added veterans Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier, and Brandon Belt.

Most Important Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got close to the big leagues, he has been one of the most talked about players in baseball, not just for his bloodlines but also for his immense talent.  In 2021, he showed what he is capable of finishing runner up in the AL MVP and leading the league in runs, home runs, OBP, slugging, OPS, and OPS+ in only his age 22 season.  In 2022, he was good (and even won a Gold Glove), but he wasn't near the elite production of the year before.  Now he is an established veteran and needs to prove who he is.  In 2022, he was an All Star.  In 2021, he was an elite player that could be a face of baseball.  If the Blue Jays are going to be one of the elite teams in the league, Vlad Jr. needs to be one of the elite players in the league.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Berrios

Few careers have been more inconsistent and confusing than Jose Berrios.  Every since he burst on the scene as a 22 year old in 2016, he has shown he has elite talent but not necessarily elite production.  He was an All Star in 2018 and 2019, and 2021 was probably his best season when he was traded to Toronto, but 2022 was his worst season as a big leaguer with a 5.23 ERA and a 74 ERA+.  Before the 2022 season, the Blue Jays signed him to a 7 year deal expecting him to produce like the 2021 version, not the 2022 version that had a -0.6 WAR.  The Blue Jays have a great top of the rotation with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.  Signing Chris Bassitt gives them a solid mid-rotation option, but Berrios has the potential to give the Blue Jays a third ace if he is at his best.  At his 2022 production, Berrios is a waste of a high salary.

Prospect to Watch

Yosver Zulueta

The Blue Jays have a fairly poor farm system with only one prospect featured in the Top 100 prospects and that prospect still at least a year away from having an impact at the big leagues.  The prospect most likely to impact the big league roster this season is right-handed pitcher Yosver Zulueta.  Although Zulueta is seen as a starter, he has also seen some success in the minors out of the bullpen.  The Blue Jays have some decent rotation depth, but if they are looking for some help in the bullpen, look for the 25 year old to get a shot to burst on the scene.

2023 Prediction

4th in AL East

Hot take time!  I have the Blue Jays as the best team to miss the playoffs in 2023.  Could the Blue Jays win the World Series in 2023?  Yes.  Could the Blue Jays miss the playoffs?  Yes.  The AL East is the toughest division in all of baseball with potentially 5 elite teams depending on how things go.  Easily 3 teams from this division could make the playoffs, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Blue Jays were one of the teams that missed.  I also wouldn't be surprised if they ended up in the World Series.  The AL is just that competitive.

Fearless Prediction

Alek Manoah will win the AL Cy Young in 2023.

The 2023 season will go one of two ways for Alek Manoah.  Either he is one of the best pitchers in the American League, or he gets injured and ends up spending more of the season on the IL than in the lineup.  It's one or the other.  At 25 years old, and an increased workload over his two seasons in the big leagues, it feels like an injury can be an inevitability for a pitcher in that scenario.  However, at 6'6" 285 pounds, and a nice and easy delivery, Manoah is set up better than most to withstand the workload and become one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.  The only question is if the rest of the rotation can keep up with him.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Minnesota Twins

 #10

The Minnesota Twins extended their improbable postseason losing streak to 18 games in 2020.  Will the streak end in 2021?  Will it keep going?  Will they have a chance to end it?

2020 Predictions

#3 - 1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

MIH - Byron Buxton

MIP - Kenta Maeda

PTW - Alex Kirilloff

2020 Results

#4 - 36-24, 1st in AL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

In the 2020 regular season, everything went right for the Minnesota Twins.  They won the division, they were one of the best teams in the American League, and they were well positioned to make a deep postseason run playing a team with a losing record in the first round.  Then they actually got to the postseason.  That team with the losing record was the Houston Astros who definitely know how to play in the postseason.  The Twins don't, and they were quickly swept out of the playoffs before they even realized they started.  It extended this crazy streak of playoff futility.  Now, no one remembers all the successes of the season.  All anyone remembers is how disappointing the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest need for the Twins entering the offseason was pitching, with Jake Odorizzi leaving in free agency.  They tried to address it by signing J.A. Happ for the rotation and Alex Colome to strengthen the bullpen.  The biggest offseason moves for the Twins were the re-signing of veteran slugger Nelson Cruz and locking down the shortstop position with the slick-fielding Andrelton Simmons.

Most Important Hitter

Max Kepler

A breakout star for the Twins in 2019 was Max Kepler, who ended up garnering MVP votes at seasons end.  In 2020, Kepler was good but not great.  The Twins' lineup is definitely the strength of the team, with a mix of up-and-coming stars and established veterans.  Kepler, along with Byron Buxton, have the potential of being the stars of the Twins' roster for years to come.  A bounce back season from Kepler in 2021 should establish himself as one of the league's rising stars and a bat the Twins can rely on moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Berrios

For years, everyone has been waiting for Jose Berrios to put everything together and establish himself as one of the most electric and dominant pitchers in all of baseball.  Although he has shown great durability and some great success in the league, making the All Star Team in both 2018 and 2019, he has yet to make himself the "guy."  In 2021, Kenta Maeda established himself as the ace of the Twins' staff, which happened because of a career year from Maeda and another good not great year from Berrios.  Entering his age 27 season, Berrios has maybe another season or two to find that dominance.  If he doesn't, he will still be a good pitcher, but the Twins need him to be an ace, not just good.

Prospect to Watch

Alex Kirilloff

My pick for the Prospect to Watch for the Twins in 2020, Alex Kirilloff would have definitely gotten his opportunity last year if not for the shortened season.  Instead, he didn't make any impact until he became the first player in MLB history to make his Major League debut by starting a playoff game.  Now, although he is slated to start this season in the minors, Kirilloff should be a regular part of the big league starting lineup at some point this season and for years to come.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

The Twins have a lineup that feels mostly unchanged from 2020, but they also feel like a playoff team that might be starting to lose some steam in terms of their success and dominance.  Their inability to truly upgrade, especially in their starting rotation, will keep them from winning their division, putting them in the one game Wild Card Round.  Not having the go-to ace, I'm predicting that ridiculous playoff losing streak will extend by one.

Fearless Prediction

The Twins' top starting pitcher entering the postseason is currently not on their roster.

At some point, the Twins have to recognize their need for more pitching.  At least you would think so.  Look for the to pull off a trade at some point throughout the season for a starting pitcher that becomes the ace of the staff ahead of Maeda and Berrios.  It might be a little out of character for the Twins to do so, but it could easily be a necessity for a team that might be feeling their hold on the division slipping away.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Minnesota Twins

#8

The Minnesota Twins have been a popular pick to be a breakout team for each of the past few seasons.  Will 2019 finally be the year the Twins break through?

2018 Predictions

2nd in AL Central

Byron Buxton will start in centerfield in the All Star Game.

2018 Results

78-84, 2nd in AL Central

I may have been right where the Twins were going to finish in 2018, but I was wrong on many things.  I said they were going to be the last team to miss the playoffs as they finish 2nd in the division.  Instead, they finished 2nd almost by default, being the least bad team behind the Indians in the AL Central.  It was a bit of a disappointing season for the Twins that led to manager Paul Molitor being fired.

Additions / Subtractions

With Paul Molitor, an old school baseball lifer, being fired, the Twins went in a new direction with rookie manager Rocco Baldelli taking over.  They also were very effective at upgrading several positions with players hungry for a breakout season.  C.J. Cron is their new first baseman after the retirement of longtime face of the franchise Joe Mauer, and for All Star Jonathan Schoop is their new second baseman.  Anchoring the heart of their lineup will be slugging DH Nelson Cruz, one of the most prolific home run hitters of the last five years.  They topped off their offseason by bringing in super utility man Marwin Gonzalez to play wherever it is needed.  He will likely start the season at third base while they wait for Miguel Sano to return from an Achilles injury.

Most Important Hitter

Byron Buxton

I wanted to go in a different direction with someone like Max Kepler (whose development is key to their success), however this team's success is most likely tied to Byron Buxton.  It feels like the Twins have been waiting forever for Byron Buxton to finally fulfill the promise of his potential.  Once touted as the top prospect in baseball and potentially the next Mike Trout, Buxton has struggled to stay healthy enough to actually show what he can be.  In four seasons in the big leagues, Buxton has only topped 100 games once in 2017.  That season he was a 5 win player, hitting 16 home runs and stealing 29 bases while earning a Gold Glove for his work in centerfield.  It also was one of the Twins better seasons in recent years.  Last season, Buxton only saw the field for 28 games, and the Twins struggled.  Their success is tied to Buxton's success.  If this season is going to be a success, he needs to stay healthy and productive.

Most Important Pitcher

Jake Odorizzi

Jose Berrios is starting to emerge as the ace of the Twins rotation.  Statistically, the best pitcher in the rotation last season was Kyle Gibson.  However, the expectation is on Jake Odorizzi.  The Twins traded for Odorizzi from the Rays before last season to help solidify the top of their rotation, and instead he was just below average, having a 4.49 ERA and 97 ERA+.  This season, the Twins will be hoping Odorizzi returns to the form that made him a coveted trade piece a year ago to help their rotation excel.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Gordon

This is the same prospect I highlighted last season, but he never saw the big leagues.  However, he is still the Twins top prospect that has an opportunity to make an impact this season.  Nick Gordon has the bloodline to be a star, being the son of former big leaguer Tom "Flash" Gordon and the kid brother of Mariners second baseman Dee Gordon.  This 23 year old infielder will definitely get his opportunity this season if Jonathan Schoop struggles like he did last season or if there is an injury to either Schoop or shortstop Jorge Polanco.  Either way, I would be shocked if 2019 goes by without Gordon seeing the big leagues.

2019 Prediction

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

This is the year the Twins break through.  Their moves to bring in some veteran leadership like Cron, Schoop, and especially Cruz should make the roster a little less inconsistent.  A potential full season out of Buxton will give them their star.  Combine all that with an Indians team covered in question marks and the Twins might be hitting their stride at just the right time.  They won't go far in the postseason, but getting there will be reward enough.

Fearless Prediction

Rocco Baldelli will be name AL Manager of the Year.

If the Twins really do push into the postseason in 2019, much of the praise will be heaped on rookie manager Rocco Baldelli.  He is the latest in a recent string of young former players that have been given managerial jobs mainly because of the fact that they fully embrace the sabermetric side of the game.  Look for Baldelli to join Alex Cora, Aaron Boone, Gabe Kapler, and others as top managers in the league that might be young enough to still be playing.